WPR's The New Rules: Credit the U.S., Not the U.N., for More Peaceful World

Thanks to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the wars they spawned, many people around the world think they're living through the most dangerous, violent and strategically uncertain period in human history. Well, that simply isn't true, as the most recent Human Security Report from Canada's Simon Fraser University makes clear. Entitled, "The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War," the 2009-2010 edition of the annual report marshals a ton of solid data that proves our world is less violent than ever and that it has "become far less insecure over the past 20 years." 

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Volume 1 of The Emily Updates now available on Amazon and B&N

Volume 1 now live on Amazon and B&N. When I started uploading both today, wasn't sure how long it would take to appear (B&N said, for example, it could run 72 hours!). So I plunged ahead to make sure I'd keep the pub date.

Go to The Emily Updates site for links.

iBookstore version not yet up.

"Emily Updates" Photo Gallery: Emily during the first nine months of chemo

Emily makes it to her third birthday

Photo gallery of almost 60 pix chronicling the discovery of her cancer (while on a short vacation in Wisconsin in July 1994) through the first nine months of her treatment, culminating in the birth of our second child - now 16-year-old Kevin - in March of 1995. We had coincidentally conceived Kevin just days prior to the diagnosis (when you're hot, you're hot).

Emily came home yesterday from college for the weekend. Someting to think about: our being so ecstatic that she made it to her third birthday and now we're talking about her junior year abroad in Japan.

Good things come to those who fight.

Find the complete gallery of photos here, all annotated.

Got the Volume 1 files for Kindle, iBook & Nook (The Emily Updates)

Came from the company Ebook Architects.  Will be loading this weekend to B&N, Amazon, and the iBookstore for launch on Monday.

Book website pretty much prepared for Volume 1, with photos and videos from that time period.

Below is a video my sister shot of me "changing" Emily's Broviac chest catheter in Novemeber 1994.

Find this and other media at theemilyupdates.net.

The real leading indicator of China's power

Apologies for no post for two days. I was in DC and busy.

FT story here on how the demographics are already playing out in China: fewer workers entering the work force can be choosier and more demanding on wages. That sends wages skyrocketing in China along the coast. Companies have two choices: go inland for cheaper Chinese labor - but then accept the higher transpo costs, or they go to neighboring states - all of which are just now on the cusp on a very big and long demographic dividend that will make their labor cheaper than China's from here on out. Those neighbors are basically all of Southeast Asia and especially India and Bangladesh.

So the subheader here says it all: "Demographcis and Beijing policy on workers' pay mean manufacturing is relocating in Asia."

Won't change a whole lot about America's trade deficit with Asia. It was large when "factory Asia" was just Japan and South Korea and ASEAN, and it got bigger when China cleverly inserted itself at the top of that assembling chain and consolidated the region's trade suprlus with America into its massive foreign currency holdings. And it won't go away when others displace China increasingly.

But it does mean that China's days of "inexhaustible" cheap labor are already ending.

And it means that India's eclipsing of China as the next big thing - to include all the soft power that goes with that (which will be greater for democratic India than authoritarian China) - has already begun.

WPR's The New Rules: The Rise of the Rest Spells U.S. Strategic Victory

The 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks has garnered America almost as much schadenfreude from the world as the original events did. Back in 2001, the line was that we had it coming to us for lording it over the world since the Cold War's end. Today, it takes the form of writing off our alleged "hegemony" in light of the shifts in global power over the intervening decade, a claim that is as absurd the previous one was insulting. Naturally, the Chinese are celebrated as our presumed replacement. So, as always throughout our history as a superpower, we're being treated to "sophisticated" analysis that says America fought the war, but they -- our next security obsession -- won the peace.

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

TheEmilyUpdates.net is up and running

Got the basics up and filling in blanks furiously.  Plenty of photos already posted, video to come.

Comments and suggestions welcomed.

Meanwhile, the de rigueur 10th anniversary commentary comes in tomorrow's WPR column.

Landed an interview with Hugh Hewitt to talk Vol. 1 of "The Emily Updates"

Emily in late fall 1994, the first time she went completely hairlessI'll tape a segment with him on the 19th that will air later.

First interview landed.

Chart of the Day: globalization's greatest victory

The rise of a global middle class, as depicted by The Economist (HT, Richard Jefferson).

People ask, what did America do for the world? It set the conditions for this to happen - and then it defended that system from those who would do it harm. The US is only world power in history whose primary goal has been the peaceful rise of other great powers through trade and development.

Thinking about reconstruction post-Irene

Some background: I've been advising another technology start-up that goes by the acronym EASE, which stands for Environmental Accountability for a Sustainable Earth. The Founder and CEO Susan Mills, long of the telecom industry, sought me out after being told that what she's put together (basically, an online marketplace platform that seeks to flow financial resources back to groups and communities - rather than see them gobbled up by outside market makers) was really an operating system for my idea of the System Administrator function in a post-whatever recovery/reconstruction. So, just like any market maker sets up the transaction space and then skims a bit off the top for itself, the various EASE Initiatives (Resilient Cities, Resilient Universities, etc.) set up similar spaces, capture a bit of the action as a social enterprise, and then make those funds available to whatever community or communities are being targeted for development. To me, it's the same stuff that the City Fathers did way back when to make sure the community was to grow as a result of some new economic activity, so what EASE offers as a technology platform is really a way to make that happen in the networked, 21st-century environment.

What follows below is a think piece I worked up with Susan regarding a possible application in New England post-Irene. Naturally, we're looking for any advice/leads on how to make this happen.

Can States and Communities Fill Their Coffers Using Silicon Valley Techniques?

 How e-coupons could stimulate business, help neighbors and build resilience

by Susan Mills and Thomas P.M. Barnett

The daily deal e-coupon juggernaut, Groupon, has changed the game when it comes to marketing and selling. Their e-coupon buyers get both a price discount and a group experience that generate excitement and connections.

And market-maker Groupon rakes in cash: an estimated $2 billion last year. 

We think there is something to learn from Groupon’s approach that could help our financially struggling schools, businesses, cities and states get back on their feet: an innovative idea that connects discount buying and group fun with the added benefit of helping others. This new type of e-coupon helps the retailer attract customers and the coupon buyer to get a deal - as well as a group activity. Plus, they both get to dosomething ‘extra’ to help their state, a community or a person.  

“Get a good deal, have a good time, AND do a good deed” is a patent-pending idea by HiWay Couponing, an initiative proposed by EASE. Right now, it is an untested concept looking for its first trial, but we see it as a private-enterprise approach that can help American communities and states become less dependent upon the federal government to maintain services and infrastructure in these fiscally constrained times. Purchasing ‘for a purpose’ can also offset tax cuts to programs and causes, stimulate the economy, and make self-reliance more feasible for hard-pressed communities. 

Here’s how it works: with a HiWay™ e-coupon, the seller offers a ‘deal,' sets the price, determines the deal’s specific third-party beneficiary, and defines how much of the deal price goes to that designated cause. The seller also specifies the characteristics of the coupon’s intended buyer, meaning attributes such as age, location, or area of interest.

Then, using its exclusive technology capabilities, HiWay precisely matches the deal with the people who have the pre-specified characteristics, or those buyers whom the seller hopes to attract to this offer. HiWay distributes the coupon to the target buyer’s laptop, smart phone or tablet. The person is alerted of the deal and can purchase it at any time using a simple ‘buy here’ button on the screen.

Funding flows quickly - almost immediately after purchase - to the retailer and to the cause. Think about how much money typically gets wasted in fundraising. Well, this direct and immediate matching method revolutionizes all that.

Yes, the social enterprise known as HiWay also receives its fee for managing the coupon service. But for the coupon’s beneficiary, funding comes to them with no fuss, no bureaucracy, and no ‘qualifying conditions.’ The money they receive is an expression of neighbors (the retailer and the coupon buyer) helping other neighbors (the beneficiary) at a time of need. Simply put, it's the "buy local" impulse that we all want to engage in, with the charitable flow hard-wired into the transaction.

In large-scale upheavals, having such immediate access to funds can be crucial to survival and recovery - a huge difference maker for non-governmental and private-voluntary organizations (NGOs/PVOs). Once established, this e-coupon program can start generating funds for a purpose almost instantly. 

In addition, HiWay tracks the money flow to ensure that the coupon’s intended target actually receives the funds as promised - a huge dose of transparency in an industry that can always use more. The HiWay system is really different from most donation flows. Usually, charities acknowledge the receipt of a donation, but they don’t specify how that donation is used. The HiWay approach puts money directly into a specific purpose or task, with transparency and trustworthiness.

Let’s apply HiWay to the current challenges facing Vermont as it responds to Hurricane Irene’s devastation. Vermont seems to embody the self-reliant spirit of neighbor helping neighbor. In one hard hit area, towns that have working electricity, phones, and roads are hosting potlucks and inviting anyone to join them. That's a wonderfully traditional response. At these dinners, friends and strangers exchange food, invitations to take a hot shower, offers of a place to stay and other kinds of help - sort of an oral couponing approach. They also sing a lot, tell stories and have fun in spite of the hardships caused by the hurricane. A positive attitude and a community spirit are stronger than the destruction caused by the storm.

Well, why not take that instinctive community response to another level?

The HiWay e-coupon idea is an extension of Vermont’s neighbor-to-neighbor generosity, support, and caring. In addition, the e-coupons stimulate business revenues and give coupon buyers a deal on something the buyer values - all necessary activity if the long-term recovery is going to unfold. 

So we're thinking: what if Vermont’s spirit of community self-reliance were tapped by statewide e-couponing? Could it raise millions to rebuild from Hurricane Irene? States definitely need a new approach that delivers care to their people and programs. Federal aid is not going to be the complete answer in these tough fiscal times. Federal legislators are proposing that states impacted by Hurricane Irene must trade the costs of near-term federal emergency relief for guarantees of budget cuts later - sort of a deny-me-now-or-cut-me-later approach that does little to prime the recovery pump. This demand is made at a time when state budgets are already cut to the bone and the hurricane has put people in additional - and profound - distress. 

Why can’t the disaster recovery be financed by the large and small businesses across a state or within a region issuing e-coupons? Vermont citizens could purchase coupons that appeal to their immediate wants and needs (like a dinner out) and to their broader community interests - perhaps helping rebuild a covered bridge. Everyone benefits.    

More to the point of those of us outside the disaster area who might want to help: the coupons don’t need to be issued solely in Vermont. Anyone, anywhere could participate by creating a Vermont HiWay coupon. 

How fast and how well would Vermont recover if:    

• Interested businesses each issued a Vermont HiWay e-coupon that gave a discount on an item and also raised money for a state fund such as rebuilding Vermont’s infrastructure, or for a local fund such a town’s police, fire and library services?
• Individuals, like veterinarians, offered a coupon for an extra free service and designate that the coupon’s revenue go to a fund for animals or to repair of the fairgrounds?

The point is that almost everyone has something to offer and lots of people and locations have needs. And we all spend money on things and we all like to get extra value from our purchases. States already do this sort of thing with lotteries, which come with a lot of negative externalities. HiWay Couponing would deliver the same sort of flows with much lower costs, charging a discounted service fee of 2% on any coupon that aids disaster relief causes.

Everyone gets a good deal in this model. The HiWay e-coupon approach brings attention to, and personalizes, a business. The coupon buyer feels directly involved in helping address a problem. And the process showcases the needs that we, as a community and wider society, would like to help. Together, e-coupon sellers and buyers can help build a healthy community, region, and state, rather than see all that savings/profit go to the market-maker - like Groupon.

We're thinking that HiWay Couponing’s type of private enterprise approach might empower citizens in ways that create less dependence on government financing. It also would stimulate more participation, flexibility, and creativity in the ways we repair and grow the communities we love.   

Time's Battleland: Right where we've always wanted us

Philip Stephens of the Financial Times recently pens a rather pessimistic piece on what Libya said about "Britain's pretensions of influence." Noting that the "campaign has stretched the armed forces to their limit," he calls it a "last hurrah." Now, the underlying tone of the piece is his criticism of PM David Cameron's desire to pursue a foreign policy more independent of both the US and EU, thus reaching out to the emerging powers, but his overall use of the Libyan intervention got me thinking: isn't this what we've always wanted in terms of a balanced world?

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland.

US-China grand strategy agreement advertised in Foreign Affairs, new US-China Relations.net website launched

The following ad appeared in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, touting the work I performed with John Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min at the Center for America-China Partnership.

Go to the just launched US-China Relations.net website for more coverage (note that not all the videos are up and working yet).  Go there for printable versions of the PDFs.

WPR's The New Rules: U.S. Must Not Close the Door on Nuclear Energy

Prior to the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan, the nuclear energy industry was poised for a global expansion of unprecedented size. Proponents of nuclear energy still see a bright future in a world where electrical demand grows hand in hand with a burgeoning global middle class and everybody wants to reduce CO2 emissions. But vociferous industry opponents now claim nuclear power has been dealt a Chernobyl-like deathblow. Unsurprisingly, most pessimists are found in the advanced West -- witness Germany's decision to abandon nuclear power -- while most optimists are found in emerging economies such as China and India.

Read the entire post at World Politics Review.

The simplest equation on making sufficient food happen

From WSJ interview with Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, CEO of Nestle. 

The global middle class means a good billion more have recently had the opportunity to access meat - high protein of choice, especially for growing bodies. When you want meat, it's a 10-times multiplier on grains or vegetables.

Do-able, says the CEO, if you follow one simple rule: "no food for fuel."

Other two rules: don't fear genetic advances and DO charge for water.

Besides some geographic adjustment on climate change, that's really it. We can handle the new demand without problems, no matter what the fear-mongers tell you. But we can't simultaneously chase "energy independence," which is doofus amidst all the other skyrocketing commodity interdependencies, because we cannot will ourselves into not caring about the Gap.

Simple solutions requiring decent political leadership, which appears - on a global scale right now - to be our one great unrenewable resource.

Middle East Monitor, August 2011

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for August 2011, which can be viewed in its entirety here.

Summary

The biggest development in August was the successful taking of Tripoli by the NATO-backed Libyan rebels. The capturing of the capital effectively brings the rule of Muammar Qaddafi to an end, though significant challenges remain, including locating Qaddafi and his sons and preventing an Iraq-style insurgency by regime loyalists. The Transitional National Council also faces a difficult challenge in unifying the different tribes, militias and political factions under one authority. 

The U.S. and European Union called on Syrian President Bashar Assad to relinquish power, and the U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, has met with opposition activists in Jassem. The U.S. has decided to officially move into the corner of the Syrian opposition, though there is no discussion of providing material aid or military intervention at this stage. The countries that have the power to place severe pressure on the Syrian regime, however, are Turkey and the European Union. The E.U. accounts for approximately 90 percent of Syria’s oil exports. Turkey is the main country that can present Assad with a realistic military threat and is best positioned to support the opposition. The Syrian regime is aware that the U.S. and European Union may lack the public support for military force, having just intervened in Libya.

The U.S. is threatening to decrease aid to the Palestinian Authority if it pushes for a U.N. vote on official Palestinian membership and recognition of statehood based on the 1967 borders. It is expected that the bid will be vetoed in the U.N. Security Council, but that the General Assembly will approve a resolution in support of the bid. It is likely that many countries will unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. However, Israel is accustomed to diplomatic pressure and strategically, the vote is insignificant. The main danger is that it will provide a pretext for major provocations against Israel, and will be used by Syria and Iran and their terrorist allies to distract from the Assad regime’s internal problems. It is also in the interest of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists to increase tension with Israel ahead of the October elections in Egypt and Tunisia.

Read the full report here.

 

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• The attack on Israel by Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula offers a chance for Israel and Egypt to face a common enemy. If Al-Qaeda acts too aggressively within Egypt, the group and perhaps other Islamists will see a steep drop in public support.
• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is now battling Yemeni tribes, both those loyal to the opposition and those loyal to the Saleh regime. This will undermine Al-Qaeda’s support in the country and put pressure on the Awlaki tribe to expel Anwar al-Awlaki, the American imam known for inspiring homegrown extremism in the U.S. and Europe.
• The alliance between Iran and Sunni Islamists, especially Hamas, is strained because of the uprising in Syria. The Iranian regime has reportedly suspended funding to Hamas for not staging pro-Assad demonstrations. Hamas is in the awkward position of having to choose between the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and its chief state sponsor.
• The Palestinian support for the anti-Assad protesters creates an additional fissure within the Islamist bloc, and could cause a positive long-term trend where Palestinians hold Arab leaders more accountable.

Risks

• The Yemeni Prime Minister has returned to his country, and President Saleh is still determined to come back. This raises the risk of a civil war as the regime tries to reassert control, and the opposition is determined to prevent Saleh’s return.
• If the security situation in Libya spirals downwards, it will jeopardize Western support for Middle Eastern opposition movements and could cause protesters to question the price of their cause.
• The possible vote on Palestinian statehood at the U.N. in September could create a political environment that bolsters Islamists ahead of the elections in Egypt and Tunisia, as well as elevate their power within opposition movements in the region.

Dependencies

• The strength of the linkage between anti-Israeli sentiment and votes for Islamist parties. A key question is whether increased tension with Israel will cause voters in Tunisia and Egypt to vote for Islamist parties when they otherwise would not.
• The strength of the Islamist powers in Libya, including militant elements like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and non-violent parties like the Muslim Brotherhood.
• The ability of secularists to reconcile the population’s desire for an official Islamic identity with the need for constitutional protections against governance based on Islamic law.
• Turkey’s view of acceptable options in pressuring the Assad regime to cease violence against its population, such as the creation of a buffer zone within Syria and robust support for the Syrian opposition.

Emily Updates Vol. 5 off to Ebook Architects

7/03/1994 shot of Em at Grandma's house several hours after I discovered the lump that, days later, was diagnosed as her Stage-IV kidney cancer, which for Em meant one kidney already consumed and metastasized tumors in both lungs. The misdiagnosis we got that day was umbilical hernia, but we didn't trust that and decided to fly back to VA from WI the next morn. This is Em eating some ice cream in the living room while Grandma, in the background, looks on. When Em had her kidney out six days later, she lost about 10% of her total body weight.

Spent the weekend doing a final edit of the retrospective volume co-written with wife Vonne and Emily herself. It was an amazing experience to write this 48,000-word volume with the two of them - something I'll treasure for the rest of my life. I really think it's the best volume of the lot. As powerful as the original Emily Updates were in their immediacy, it is stunning to have the three of us, writing separate "Mom/Dad/Emily looks back" chapters, to come to many of the same conclusion about how Emily's cancer altered our lives permanently and profoundly.

The volume also contains three other chapters: one that tracks our family's path from the end of the Updates to now, another that is a sort of "director's commentary" (by me) on the Updates, and a third by me that is an explicit and detailed "lessons learned" for parents of pediatric oncology patients.

It's been a lesson on setting this whole thing up. Went out and bought ISBN numbers, plus did the copyright submission with the US Copyright Office. Got signed up at Barnes & Noble's eBook site as publisher, and then likewise at Amazon and Apple. Just purchased TheEmilyUpdates.com custom domain and started putting together a new Squarespace site to that end (my next focus).  And then there's the PR work that Steve Oppenheim is doing, which includes lengthy interviewing of me to generate materials to be used. We are planning to target a wide range of media to the best of our collective ability.

A couple of years back, this would have seemed crazy, but now with Amazon selling more eBooks than paperbacks and hardcovers combined, it's a new world - and a much better royalty rate. So, given that the production costs are minimal (add it all up and even with the professional formatting, we're barely escaping 3 figures), this personal dream becomes not only possible but a legitimate endeavor.

I have no idea of how successful the Updates will be. I just know I wanted to share the story on our terms, and eBooks make that possible now - roughly a decade and a half later.

I'm already working with the Lombardi Cancer Center at Georgetown regarding promotion, and without getting into our plans for targeting the widest possible array of media, I want to ask people if they had any ideas and/or experience in trying something like this.

So please comment if you do.

Greenland: Show me the money - and what else?

FT story on Greenland's oil rush and how it's driving the independence movement toward it's next goal. Having achieved self-governance in 2009, it remains a "dependency" on Denmark. But with 52b barrels offshore, the next step seems clear: economic independence that ultimately allows for true political independence.

I wouldn't try to portray the Greenlanders as chaffing under Danish rule.  Honestly, it's hard to imagine anybody chaffing under Danish rule. It's more that the newfound wealth changes things: people want economic advance and once that happens, perceptions change.

Greenland is 85% Inuit and about 15% Danes.

Naturally, the push to access the oil is generating an enviro backlash. Greenpeace is hot on the scene, although the ship seems to be populated totally by foreigners (their effort is dubbed "Operation Foreigner"). The group sees Greenland as a chance to revive itself after some wandering years. Meanwhile, the local activists seem most concerned about creating jobs for Greenlanders.

All rather fascinating to watch as globalization comes big-time to the Arctic.

Time's Battleland: Defining the floor and ceiling of US interventions post-Bush

Qaddafi's handiwork

NOTE: No World Politics Review column this week as journal shuts down for its summer break.

Nice NYT analytic piece (already cited by Mark Thompson) by Helene Cooper and Steven Lee Myers regarding the downstream legacy of the US involvement in Libya to date. Starts off by saying the Obama White House seeks no doctrine definition because it fears being pulled into inappropriate situations, but, of course, that's what a doctrine is supposed to do - delineate those cases. Bad doctrines tend to be too vague and open-ended (George W. Bush's WRT terror), while better ones tend to be fairly specific (Jimmy Carter's WRT the Persian Gulf).

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland.

Time's Battleland: Follow-Up on African Christian-Muslim Fault Line Post

Good book on the observation of a religious fault line between the predominantly Muslim north and the predominantly Christian/other south of Africa:

"Dispatches From the Fault Line Between Christianity and Islam" by Eliza Griswold.

Find the book here on Amazon.

Find the NYT review here.

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland.

Never leave the game!

Found this shot on the web, and it's almost exactly my view from season tix seats at Lucas (we bought as option for some of the games, selling the rest to keep it a neutral exchange--money-wise).

Anyway, I go to the game last night with son Jerry after XC practice. Dumbass that I am, we arrive for 7pm game, because that's what it says at Packer Insider website, but that's the CST and not the local EST. But I was happy to be there, because Jerry got to see how the team does all the same walking-stretching routines that we start each XC practice with.

Game got out of hand with 3 mins left as 3rd-string QB Harrell threw a near pick-six and Colts scored on next play to go up by 8. Since my older son was still MIA from his HS football game (fan, not participant), I figured Jerry and I would leave then and track down Kev.  So we walk out and Jerry is pretty upset about the turn of events, because he hates losing big-time!

Wife phones and says Kev surfaced, so now we don't need to leave. Jerry is a bit tearful about the outcome and I tell him, Who knows, it's a one-score game so let's sit back down and watch the last 2 minutes. So we do, in another section, and the Pack drives down the field to score a TD on 4-and-goal with 40 seconds left.  Then we do the two-point and tie the game.

THEN we onside and recover, pass three times and kick a 50-yarder FG to win with no time left! Jerry is ecstatic!

And I relearn a lesson.

Second game of doubleheader at Milwaukee County stadium in mid-70s. Brew Crew way down and my Dad up and leaves in disgust, heading to car.  Little bro Ted and I stay behind (I'm old enough by this point). Brewers stage comeback, replect with PH appearance by Hank Aaron (he DH'd first game and was sitting out second) that ties the contest.  Frank Luchesi, a true nut and manager of the Rangers, gets tossed and buries home plate in dirt before leaving.

Then history: Aaron is forced to play left field for the last time in his career in order to stay in game.  He catches a line drive!

My Dad sheepishly reappears, smiling. 

Then more history: last walkoff homer of Aaron's career and second to last HR overall. I think it's the 10th but maybe 11th inning. 

Anyway, we were in heaven.

So the old bit about not leaving until the fat lady sings.  

When I was eleven, I used to lose it emotionally all the time over the Packers.  No choice, it was the dreaded down years of the 1970s.

So funny to watch Jerry suffer just like me three-plus decades later, and learn the same lesson: it ain't over until the last out/last play/last second.