Actually, John, that’s the perfect answer for the age

ARTICLE: “McCain’s Conservative Model? Roosevelt (Theodore, That Is),” by Adam Nagourney and Michael Cooper, New York Times, 13 July 2008, p. A1.

Yes, globalization needs a shaming and taming period akin to our Progressive Era, to include the environment.

It’s McCain’s assumption of “tougher foreign policy” where the myths of TR take root: Other than the counterinsurgency inherited from McKinley, TR started no wars and got no American soldiers killed. If anything, his focus was on arbitrationism (Elihu Root) and peace-mongering (the first and only sitting U.S. president to win the Nobel Peace Prize (Secretary of War Root also got one later).

If anything, McCain’s got it backwards: TR pushed restraint overseas and was highly aggressive in using the power of the state at home, whereas McCain indicates the opposite tendencies.

So great model, but maybe not for McCain ...

Post-Fidel Cuba is moving right along ...

ARTICLE: Cuba to Allow Private Farming, By Will Weissert, Associated Press, July 19, 2008; Page A12

Allowing private farming as the first economic reform step is very Deng.

China missing the opportunity on the Sichuan earthquake

ARTICLE: “Voice Seeking Answers for Parents About a School Collapse Is Silenced: Police Arrest Activist in China,” by Jake Hooker, New York Times, 11 July 2008, p. A6.

When China sluggers want to cite backtracking, something like this is perfect.

And they’re right to do so. No excuse for the CCP here. If its going to get serious on corruption, then it needs to address complaints like these.

Where U.S. imports from

CURRENTS: “When Recall Isn’t Total: Surge in Imports Challenges Voluntary System,” by Melanie Trottman, Wall Street Journal, 15 July 2008, p. A12.

Hmm, I feel like my citing of WSJ stories is dropping off the further we travel into the Murdoch era. Disturbing.

Cool map here shows top sources for American imports: All Old Core and New Core, if you grandfather in SE Asia.

So the big sources are Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, China, SE Asia and a cluster of West European countries.

Thus my point: We make our money off the Old and New Core, not the Gap per se.

The Iraq-is-all narrative is waning

OP-ED: Drilling in Afghanistan, By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, New York Times, July 30, 2008

Nice piece by Friedman: drilling in the U.S. is a nice effort but no game-changer (that ball will simply move too far in the decade it takes to get rolling), and focusing on Afghanistan won't be any cakewalk either.

But the larger point is that the Iraq-is-all narrative is waning, and this is good.

What will "victory" look like?

We'll get kicked out.

"High Water Mark of the Rebellion"

At Copse of Trees where Longstreet's Assault ends. About 200 confederate troops break the Union line at The Angle (turn in fence), led by Gen Lewis Armistead. All are killed.

In some ways, this is the birthplace of our version of globalization.

Video 1 = Tom recreating the Confederates' charge (last 100 yards)

Starts with Copse of Trees (from Union line), and pans over field over which Longstreet's Assault traversed (from Confederate positions along distant tree line) and ends at The Angle in fence where Union forces were centered.

From Emmitsburg Road, the view for Armistead's Virginia men as they angled left toward The Angle.

Watch Tom recreate Pickett's chargeTom

Covering some ground with Armistead's troops!

Meade statue at height where he observed.

View toward Confederate positions from Meade outlook, with Copse on left and Angle at right.

Tom in Gettysburg 2

Train station where Lincoln arrived to deliver address.

Tom around the web

Links to All systems "go" for war
+ Information Dissemination
+ Andrew Sullivan
+ John Robb
+ Penguin Monkey
+ Huenemanniac
+ Connor Mendenhall
+ The Politics of Scrabble

+ Information Dissemination linked Sound familiar?
+ SWJ Blog linked Negotiations begin at the scary part.
+ Quality Leadership Weblog linked AFRICOM: important, humble template.
+ And linked Match and close.

+ Bostonmaggie loves PNM (x2)
+ Guarding the Rubicon does not.
+ HG's WORLD linked Earth is doomed! Doomed I tell you!
+ Exurban League linked First Kaplan, now Boot wants a Department of Everything Else.
+ The Politics of Scrabble also linked I want to access the Iranian people.
+ Outside the Beltway referenced the Leviathan and SysAdmin.

+ mch lives here embedded the TED video.
+ The Noise in my Head linked it.

Links to Globalizations means fewer wars, less death
+ curtis schweitzer dot net
+ So did HG's WORLD
+ americanapocalypsesurvivalhandbook/recipebook

+ Mass Observer quoted If Iran wants to trigger US strikes for domestic purposes, this is the route.
+ Indistinct Union credits Tom for his prediction that Africa will be the next front against jihadism.
+ HG's WORLD linked A war that nobody wants but everybody needs .
+ So did calvin.
+ Globo Diplo linked What will America do when Iran gets nuclear weapons?
+ zenpundit linked Barnett: Fewer wars, more consumers, thanks to globalization.
+ I, Hans linked The most vigorous glass-half-full reading by two key architects of the surge.
+ So did et alli.
+ enrevanche linked First great catch-up on blog since book.
+ SWJ Blog linked The worm finally starts to turn on Iran and Want leverage with China on Sudan?
+ Quality Leadership Weblog linked Taking stock ...

Double duh on Darfur

IDEAS & TRENDS: “Why Darfur Still Bleeds,” by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 13 July 2008, p. WK5.

Call-out text solves the entire mystery: “Peacekeepers face tough logistics. And there’s no peace to keep.”

No America, no logistics and no warfighters to make the initial peace possible.

Obama's running mate

ARTICLE: Kaine in 'Serious' Talks With Obama, By Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray, Washington Post, July 29, 2008; Page A01

For electoral college-winning reasons, seems like Kaine will be the best Obama pick, but does that address the various "risk" issues for him, or is the choice too narrow?

Tom at Gettysburg

SW view from Little Round Top in Gettysburg toward the boulder field known as Devil's Den.

From LRT toward main field of battle on 3 July (the famous charge).

Beijing and masking-up for the Games

China will go to extraordinary efforts to reduce the smog, which on some days in August can be stunningly bad and on other days it simply disappears (based on my time there), but I think you'll see a lot of athletes go through with the threat of wearing masks, which will be hugely embarrassing to Beijing.

It will become the unintentional symbol of the games and our times: globalization's stunning advance triggers great development and great despoilment. The reaction is inevitable and good. Much like the rise of early environmentalism in America at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century (TR as great public purveyor), we'll see a truly global phenomenon this time around, instead of just the West-heavy version that we've lived with these past three-to-four decades.

This will be a fascinating process to track, and the Beijing Olympics will be a major turning point.

The Economist weighs in on the Med Union

EDITORIAL: “Club Med: The Mediterranean, north and south, is forming a single economic unit: Europe should make it a powerful one,” The Economist, 12 July 2008, p. 15.

BRIEFING: “The Med’s moment comes: Globalisation is bringing a wave of money to the Mediterranean,” The Economist, 12 July 2008, p. 78.

From the editorial:

Beyond the platitudes and projects lies the germ of a brilliant idea. Something is stirring around the Med as globalisation takes root. Growth and investment have leapt. There is a new openness to trade and foreign money. The members of Club Med no longer need to glower across the table at each other. Instead, there is the prospect of the youth and vigour of the southern Mediterranean combining with a rich, ageing north.

The key? The EU must use its patronage to boost spending on infrastructure, promote trade and clean up politics and institutions.

The main story shows the FDI flow, collectively second only to China among emerging markets.

Funniest line: “commerce is scarcely a novelty in the Mediterranean.”

Classic revelation about a doom-and-gloomer

ARTICLE: “The only way is down: The high priest of ‘peak oil” thinks world oil output can now only decline,” The Economist, 12 July 2008, p. 77.

Matthew Simmons is the classic, on-his-way-out-the-door doomsayer: spent a life in the business and now sees only doom ahead.

The clincher for me:

In the meantime, Mr Simmons is taking no chances. He plans to start up a farm near his house in Maine, in case the supply chain that provides America with food breaks down for lack of fuel. He plans to fertilize his fields with manure, rather than chemicals derived from oil and natural gas. He thinks globalisation must stop, and that as much trade as possible should be conducted by boat, to conserve whatever oil remains.

Mad Matt, here we come!

Still, the guy’s company is investing in alternative fuels, so maybe we’ll survive after all.

My point: the personal bent on this subject never ceases to amaze me.

Frankly, I don’t think the oil price hike could have come at a better time.

The set-up on Iran, by Iran?

ARTICLE: “Dangerous games: Some scary noises, but maybe also some progress on the nuclear front,” The Economist, 5 July 2008, p. 60.

Some say Iran just stalls, others say the sanctions really hurt.

What do actual Iranian experts say?

Iranian analysts prefer the view that their leaders, reckoning that dangers may ease following America’s presidential election, simply wish to keep things calm until November.

This is my gut instinct too.

China’s outward push on FDI

ARTICLE: “Dealing with sinophobia: An oil deal highlights foreigners’ wariness towards Chinese companies,” The Economist, 12 July 2008, p. 72.

We always hear about inward FDI, but rarely do we hear about China’s outward flow, which according to a chart here remained under $5b a year on average til 2004. Then ‘04’s $5b-plus moves up about $12b in ’05, then the high teens the last two years.

A key tipping point for China’s “deep Core” status? More outward than inward flow.

What The Economist said!

EDITORIAL: “The unanimity problem,” by Charlemagne, The Economist, 28 June 2008, p. 60.

Key bit: “Devout federalists have their answer: unanimity is the enemy of progress in an EU of 27 countries”—read, states.

The ultimate fix is proposed: same-day popular voting in all states. But The Economist says a “large majority of national governments are just not ready for that.”

Not only is the EU behind the United States curve, it won’t be catching up any time soon. Granted, we took roughly a century and a bloody Civil War to get over the concept of states just not being “ready for that.”

The EU, past the whole war concept, will simply have to muddle through. But clearly, it is neither a superstate now nor was it ever the first one.

Amen brother. NGOs and PVOs are no way to build a nation

ARTICLE: “The New Colonialists,” by Michael A. Cohen, Maria Figueroa Kupcu and Parag Khanna, Foreign Policy, July/August 2008, p. 74.

An exploration of the “vicious cycle of dependency” and capacity destruction.

The killer call-out text: “None of the new colonialists is anxious to perform so well that it works itself out of a job. They need weak states as much as weak states need them.”

History seems pretty clear: long-term aid does not work, but short-term bursts can. And they can’t get too big, so no big pushes please. Once aid gets much over 15% of national GDP, it’s like the oil curse: making governments unresponsive to citizens.

Good, scary example: of all the aid flowing into Afghanistan, this article notes, only one-third is actually controlled by the government and up to 80% of all services there are delivered by NGOs and PVOs.

The complaint? NGO-ism replaces Talibanism. Those are Karzai’s words.

That’s why we stick to the “in-the-box” metaphor. We want to deliver a company-in-a-box or a department-in-a-box, but the locals need to own the box.

Map still looking solid

ARTICLE: “The Failed States Index 2008,” Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,” Foreign Policy, July/August 2008, p. 64.

All the “critical” and “in danger” states lie within the confines of the Gap map.

All of the “stable” and “most stable” lie inside the Core.

Basically all of the New Core and many Seam States are described as “borderline.”

I drew my map based on U.S. military responses. Apparently that’s a pretty good way to categorize the world.

You use religion in politics, and eventually you get a backlash from … the believers!

MEMO FROM TEHRAN: “Iranian Clerics Tell the President to Leave the Theology to Them,” by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, 20 May 2008, p. A8.

Ahmadinejad likes to project his personal connection to the Imam Mahdi, the “hidden” 12th imam who plays a messiah-returning role in Shia faith much like Christ in Christianity. He says the Imam Mahdi guides his actions and keeps him safe and so on.

Quirky when the Super Bowl QB says his team won because “God was looking over us” and so on, and proclaiming his faith in Jesus Christ was the difference (certainly in his life, but most of us would say, not in actually deciding the game), but different when the claimant is a head of government casually shooting his mouth off about wars (and no, this post won’t devolve into a tempting comparison with Bush).

Ahmadinejad likes to do his own thing on religion, obeying some concepts deeply (too deeply) and blowing others off. You do that long enough and you’ll piss off the religious authorities.

Just another sign of his declining popularity.

The curious thing is, could Ahmadinejad win re-election with a deal with Bush or the next president? Of would that kill his ultimate rationale for continued leadership?

I do not underestimate the guy lightly. He is one clever politician. If a deal occurs, expect him to milk it vaingloriously.