Finally, a poll that matters--the electoral map

POLL: Building Mo-bama! Democrat Leads McCain in Electoral College Tally, 273-160, Zogby, July 06, 2008

[Editor's note: Updates on the main Zogby website]

Connectivity forces submission to accepted global rule sets

PRESS RELEASE: Guidelines for Environmental and Social Impact Assessments of the China Export and Import Bank’s Loan Projects, International Rivers

The business hassle is simply too high, and consumer awareness too profound.

(Thanks: Matthew Garcia)

Natural request by Iraq

Iraq Wants Withdrawal Timetable In U.S. Pact, By Ernesto Londoño and Dan Eggen, Washington Post, July 9, 2008; Page A08

Seems it's not just the prez candidates that are evolving their positions on our continued presence in Iraq.

Unpopular trifecta

POST: The Syria Card, By David J. Haimsky, SWJ Blog, July 6, 2008

Well-argued and worth reading.

To me, the Syria card has little to do with us (Rice seems to view the DPRK peace treaty as her hoped-for legacy--as pathetic as it will be to ask Beijing to craft it), but instead just represents Israel clearing the deck before anticipated strikes.

Very unpopular leader there also needing a boost, making for a trifecta with Bush and Ahmadinejad.

I retract on Favre

The Fox interview killed it for me.

Thompson and McCarthy took the Pack to a TD drive-away from the Super Bowl with their choices. They are both good and shouldn't be held hostage to Brett's demands.

Trade him to the AFC but enough of the soap opera. The team is more important than any one of our many legendary players.

Back in the saddle . . .

Just finished two relatively short pieces for Esquire's big 75th anniversary issue in the fall (October, I think). One I dreamed up (about 2k) while writing Great Powers, and one that was given to me out of the blue (300 or so).

Next up in an election piece for Good.

If Iran wants to trigger US strikes for domestic purposes, this is the route

ARTICLE: Iran's chief of staff expands threat of Strait of Hormuz closure, DEBKAfile, July 10, 2008

I don't put it past the hardliners to trigger their own splendid little war while their man still holds the presidency.

Much the same with Cheney, who sports the same, time-is-running-short look.

I still think there's a strong probability that shots will be fired before 1/20/09. So many players on all three sides (US, Israel, Iran) want it to happen before Obama takes office.

It's this sort of twisted logic that starts global conflicts.

(Thanks: Rob Johnson)

Real progress, in my mind, in Russia

ARTICLE: "Russia Presses U.S. Bank Over Money Laundering," by Andrew E. Kramer , New York Times, 5 July 2008, p. C3.

Using RICO in Moscow to punish BONY (Bank of New York) for letting money be funneled out of Russia in the late 1990s illegally.

Dershowitz represents! (the Russians).

Way cool to see. People with enough money learn to really care about such rules.

A glimpse of future capabilities

ARTICLE: Post-9/11 Dragnet Turns Up Surprises, By Ellen Nakashima, Washington Post, July 6, 2008; Page A01

Biometrics shared and netted across borders, placing counter-terrorism where it ultimately belongs once frontiers are settled--in the world of policing.

Congrats to Mark

Major friend of this weblog, Mark 'zenpundit' Safranski has an op-ed piece up at Pajamas Media entitled Congress Debates Muzzling Congressmen Online

Tom writes:

An important step.

I am reminded of the high school teacher who does so much writing/commentary for WAPO. I could see Mark evolving into that role for any number of MSM pubs.

Everything must go!

ANALYSIS: Recent Bush Victories Smell of Compromise, By Dan Eggen and Paul Kane, Washington Post, July 13, 2008; Page A04

It really is a garage sale for the Bush administration, but that's fine. Everyone wants their sense of accomplishment heading out the door.

Gotta read this one from Steve

POST: Oil Fuels Kurdistan Economic Boom

The MSM coverage begins to encroach ...

Shift in front

ARTICLE: 9 Americans Die in Afghan Attack, By CARLOTTA GALL, July 14, 2008

In line with yesterday's column, we find ourselves reading about the worst losses of life now occurring in Afghanistan vice Iraq.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

The essence of Russia today

ARTICLE: "A Billionaire Governor Resigns in Russia," by Michael Schwirtz, New York Times, 4 July 2008, p. A9.

The combination billionaire-governor is the essence of Russia today: a giant cluster of trusts masquerading as a government.

Marx would recognize it instantly as the climax of capitalism.

And he'd be wrong about what came next--as always.

This deal was set a while back

ARTICLE: "Bush to Attend Opening of Beijing Games: the president's travel plans anger human right advocates," by Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, 4 July 2008, p. A8.

This deal was set when Congress awarded the Dalai Lama the gold medal in the White House ceremony. In return for pissing off the Chinese, a deal was worked out diplomatically with Beijing, assuring the Chinese that Bush would show up for the opening ceremonies.

Reasonable quid pro quo.

We will see this in spades--efficiency as the answer

ARTICLE: "Japan Sees A Chance to Promote Its Energy-Frugal Ways," by Martin Fackler, New York Times, 4 July 2008, p. A6.

The West got rich when resources were cheap. Now the New Core's stunning growth and the looming doubling of the global middle class as a percentage of world population forces us all to reconsider our use of all resources, but especially energy.

The good news, as Amory Lovins loves to point out, is that there are huge efficiencies waiting to be nabbed out there--serious money savers and thus money makers.

Watch Japan, long conscious of this reality because it's a microcosm of the future world with its crowded, resource-intensive lifestyle, step to the forefront, making tons of money as a result.

The reality of China's globalization exposure

ARTICLE: China 'is fuelling war in Darfur', By Hilary Andersson, BBC, 13 July 2008

Development means energy means equity oil means getting in bed with bad leaders means contravening UN sanctions means Beijing's vilification by those with the power to threaten that development.

So something's gotta give.

The more China connects, the more stuff like this it keeps getting sucked into.

(Thanks: Aaron Brown)

This week's column

A war that nobody wants but everybody needs

The world heads for another war in the Persian Gulf that nobody wants but everybody seems to need. Looming behind the most crucial dynamics is the possible presidency of Barack Obama, suggesting that war may become inevitable due to the fear of peace. After eight years of Bush-Cheney, such is the state of our world.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency has been a disaster for the Iranian people. Despite all the oil wealth, inflation is raging and the economy goes nowhere. Add in a stunning birth dearth, the world's worst brain drain, plus Iranian prostitutes headlining European brothels, and this is clearly a society in a death spiral. With restless students chanting in public for Ahmadinejad's death, little wonder the man pines for a splendid little war.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Ahmadinejad de-selected by the Supreme Leader?

Check out this analysis.

"We'd by happy to try him. Just bring him by."

ARTICLE: Sudan president expected to face war crime charges, By JOHN HEILPRIN, AP, July 11, 2008

All good and another important precedent re-/affirmed.

But as I like to note: facing charges in the Gap ain't the same as facing trial in the ICC, which can indict all it wants. It just can't arrest anybody. For that, you at least need the SysAdmin and sometimes the actual Leviathan.

(Thanks: Dan Hare)