A lot of hot air to arrive at the military consensus

ARTICLE: U.S. to Protect Populous Afghan Areas, Officials Say, By THOM SHANKER, PETER BAKER and HELENE COOPER, New York Times, October 27, 2009

Okay:

President Obama's advisers are focusing on a strategy for Afghanistan aimed at protecting about 10 top population centers, administration officials said Tuesday, describing an approach that would stop short of an all-out assault on the Taliban while still seeking to nurture long-term stability.

But I don't get why this is considered the "middle way." Everything I heard and everybody I talk to basically said this is the essence of McChrystal's plan in the short term, with the obvious hope to expand later on. We fiddle with the troop numbers--fine. Everybody declares we'll still kill AQ in Pakistan--like that was ever coming off the table.

I will go with Cheney's criticism on this one: a lot of dithering to come up with the same basic plan and call it "consensus." Plus a conscious low-balling on the necessary numbers and no real effort yet displayed to regionalize the solution over the longer-term.

To me, that's a lot of sturm und drang with little-to-no innovation.

My, what a crucial debate!

This reminds me of the surge debate on Iraq: basic military line adopted after a lot of hot air expended, with the politicians claiming deep impact. I am not impressed.

Gates following through on China

ARTICLE:
US urges China military dialogue, BBC, 28 October 2009

Remember my question posed to ForeignPolicy.com when Gates was announced: the big question is how he views China's rise. If handle-able, then the evolution from Leviathan toward SysAdmin capabilities continues. If not, then most is lost.

This is Gates following through, in what will arguably be the most important foreign policy impact he has.

(Thanks: Bryan William Jones)

The latest on Tom on C-SPAN

It appears C-SPAN is now allowing some of its videos to be embedded. So here's The Pentagon's New Map: Presentation and Call-In.

They also have a transcript from the closed captioning. It's a little iffy, but could be useful.

Of all 7 of Tom's appearances on C-SPAN, only one other (American Bases in Africa) one allows embedding right now, but all of them allow viewing on the page. They are:

PNM on Booknotes with Brian Lamb

PNM Powerpoint Presentation (the best-known)

BFA After Words with Rep. Tom Feeney

National Security Strategy from the BFA era

GP at Politics & Prose

Wargaming and wrapping minds around operational realities

ARTICLE: U.S. tested 2 Afghan scenarios in war game, By Greg Jaffe and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, October 26, 2009

Frankly, the limitations of a wargame in such scenario forecasting are immense.

Really, all something like that can show is a sense of logical sequencing and an associated "cone of plausibility"--as in, when we get to this point, this is possible.

Basic point that I made in a previous post about how even accepting the McChrystal plan meant you were going to focus first and foremost on cities: it's the sheer reality of a troop buildup occurring over months:

One of the exercise's key assumptions is that an increase of 10,000 to 15,000 troops would not in the near future give U.S. commanders the forces they need to take back havens from the Taliban commanders in southern and western Afghanistan, where shadow insurgent governors collect taxes and run court systems based on Islamic sharia law.

So call it McChrystal in the city, and Biden in the countryside, as the NYT did recently, but all that tells me is that it takes time to build up just the troops, so this emerging "consensus" is just the pols wrapping their minds about operational realities--not exactly a new dynamic in US leadership.

If Afghanistan is like Vietnam, that could be good

OP-ED: Afghanistan could turn into Vietnam. Let's hope so., By Joshua Kurlantzick, Washington Post, October 25, 2009

Wonderful piece by Kurlantzick, he of China's Charm Offensive fame.

The larger point: Vietnam became normal by connecting to the global economy.

(Thanks: Ross Stewart)

China's in control on N. Korea

OP-ED: China's North Korea conundrum: How to balance a three-legged stool, By Jonathan D. Pollack, Daily Star, October 27, 2009

A quote:

Officials in Beijing no longer mask their frustrations with North Korea, especially after North Korea's defiance in twice undertaking nuclear tests. The second nuclear detonation occurred less than 100 kilometers from the Chinese border and Pyongyang has disavowed all previously negotiated restraints on its nuclear development. Confronted by the North's egregious misconduct, Beijing has pursued a two-sided approach. It participated fully in UN Security Council deliberations, endorsed the sanctions imposed by the Security Council in mid-June, and is collaborating with the United States and others to implement the sanctions regime. At the same time, China's leaders have permitted harsh criticisms of North Korea in authoritative journals and newspapers that would have been unimaginable in the past. Chinese analysts now write contemptuously of the North and of how its actions have threatened Chinese interests. Some senior officials have also voiced severe, if private, criticisms. By characterizing North Korea as an increasing liability to China, Beijing has sought to deny Pyongyang any political or strategic advantage from its nuclear actions. Though this harsh assessment does not dominate official policy, there seems no doubt of its increased legitimacy and prominence in Chinese internal debate.

As always, everything will proceed on China's schedule, but this tracks with everything I've heard in Beijing and Shanghai--off the record, of course.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

Race for those still living

ARTICLE: A Race in Cardiology, By BARRY MEIER, New York Times, September 30, 2009

Too late for my Dad, but hopefully in time for others.

Airports have finally moved past the need for Clear

ARTICLE: 'Clear' Security Service May Return at Airports, By BRAD STONE, New York Times, September 29, 2009

Honestly, even though I had it and enjoyed it, I'm not sure Clear is needed anymore. Going through Atlanta this week, I thought about how just about every major airport has already conquered the security-delay nexus through effective redesign.

USAF on science and technology

ARTICLE: U.S.A.F. Launches Major Technology Review, By Amy Butler, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Oct 21, 2009

True enough description:

"I don't think in the history of the Air Force we've been at a turning point like this. Maybe the closest was the Sputnik launch," Dahm tells Aviation Week. "What does the Air Force do when it is faced with a radically different future? Part of what it does is reach into its science and technology domain."

Amazing to think the USAF, only a few years ago, was going to rule all through the high-end definitions of net-centric warfare. Problem is, the Gap does not present such opponents.

(Thanks: Mike Nelson)

Wade in the water

ARTICLE: Alternative Energy Projects Stumble on a Need for Water, By TODD WOODY, New York Times, September 29, 2009

Water is the key delineator on all alt fuels.

Look for the girl with the sun in her eyes and she's gone

ARTICLE: Lucy Vodden, Who Inspired a Beatles Song, Dies at 46, By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS, September 29, 2009

Truly depressing.

Now even children who inspired Beatles' songs are dying!

I do dread the day the last Beatle dies. I pray for Paul and Ringo. I've been listening to Paul's latest albums and they're truly haunting in their nostalgia. Tough to lose your mates and wife. I admire him deeply for persevering.

Parenting non-straight kids

ARTICLE: Coming Out in Middle School, By BENOIT DENIZET-LEWIS, New York Times Magazine, September 23, 2009

Tricky stuff for a parent to deal, but a very accurate description of the timing and awkwardness.

Just as real: this is where you lose you child for good if you play it badly.

Kerry now

ARTICLE: For Kerry, a growing role on foreign policy stage, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, October 23, 2009

I still like and admire Kerry plenty, and think he would have been a great SecState.

A Military Expert's Preview of This Week's Biggest NFL Battle

One very bitter national-security analyst (and Packers season ticket holder) looks back at the Civil War for some perspective on Brett Favre's first trip back to Lambeau Field

Continue reading this week's World War Room column at Esquire.com.

Iran will have to recognize Israel

ARTICLE: Tehran and Tel Aviv in nuclear war of words, By Michael TheodoulouThe National, October 22. 2009

Of course Tehran angrily denies:

Iran yesterday angrily denied Israeli media assertions that senior nuclear officials from the two countries held confidential talks last month in what was portrayed as the first direct exchange between the two arch enemies for 30 years.

Because the reality is, once Tehran truly goes nuclear, it ONLY gets what it wants (deterrent recognized) IF it recognizes Israel.

Each confirmed there were no direct, bilateral talks. The deliberations were meant to be confidential. But leaked accounts of the conference infuriated Tehran, which said the notion of any sort of meeting with Israel was absurd. "The Islamic republic does not recognise the Zionist regime," said Ali Shirzadian, a spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation.

No, not yet. But if you want nukes in order to join the big boys club, then you have to do big-boy things.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

The right kind of cooperation with Pakistan

ARTICLE: U.S. aiding Pakistani military offensive, By Julian E. Barnes and Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times, October 23, 2009

The gist:

The U.S. military is providing intelligence and surveillance video from unmanned aircraft to the Pakistani army to assist in its week-old offensive in South Waziristan, marking the deepest American involvement yet in a Pakistani military campaign, officials said.

The assistance includes imagery from armed Predator drones that Defense officials say are being used exclusively for intelligence gathering in the offensive.

Providing such information fills gaps in the Islamabad government's spying arsenal, officials said, and helps show how the Obama administration intends to intensify pressure on insurgents in Pakistan as the administration overhauls the U.S. military strategy in neighboring Afghanistan.

The cooperation also reflects a significant shift for Pakistan, which had previously resisted U.S. offers to deploy Predators in support of its military operations.

The beginnings of the right kind of cooperation--as in, we supply as needed vice give them money and hope they buy the right stuff.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

Something is rotten in the state of Iran

ARTICLE: Ahmadinejad Accused Over Missing Billions, By Benjamin Joffe-Walt, The Media Line, October 27, 2009

Of course the Revolutionary Guards are stealing the government blind. That's the WHOLE POINT in being THE power center.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

Yes, Vanuatu needs saving

ARTICLE: The View from Vanuatu on Climate Change, By BJORN LOMBORG, Wall Street Journal, OCTOBER 22, 2009

Ah, but certainly Vanuatu's biggest problem is global warming, yes?

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

Can liberals work themselves up to war?

ARTICLE: A Feminist Case for War?, By Michelle Goldberg, The American Prospect, October 27, 2009

An old theme, uncomfortably embraced here by the author.

Ah, but the only death that matters in this world is death caused by Americans. Everybody else gets a pass.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)

When the Core outsources its waste to the Gap

ARTICLE: Smuggling Europe's Waste to Poorer Countries, By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL, New York Times, September 26, 2009

This is why Gap countries have to be able to sue Core companies for environmental damage (per my recent post).