Globalization -- shrinking the Gap -- Saves Lives

ìLiving in Extreme Poverty,î by Shannon Reilly and Marcy E. Mullins, USA Today, 29 April, p. 1A.

Simple page 1 graphic from USA Today makes point I use in book: more has been accomplished to reduce global poverty in last couple of decades thanks to spread of global economy than in previous century. Pulling in such New Core heavyweights as India and China and Brazil means serious poverty reduction in the world, both as a percent of total population and in terms of absolute numbers.

40% of the world population in 1981 lived on less than $1/day. That number is 21% in 2001. The absolute number of truly poor in 1981 was 1.5 billion. That number is now down to 1.1 billion.

Those are lives extended and improved. Those are premature deaths (especially the kids) avoided. That is globalization saving lives, pure and simple.

Old disease? Look in Gap

ìThe troubling fight against an old killer: Malaria in Africa,î by Steve Sternberg, USA Today, 29 April, p. 8D.

Great map in story shows where malaria is worst. Except for southern Mexico, northern Brazil and India, all of the areas lie within the Gap. That trio effectively lie on the Seam, so no great surprise there. No Core state removed from the Seam has any issue with malaria.

My point: the Core-Gap divide is a map we look at every day without realizing it. This map exists in so many forms, tracking so many different parametersóit is simply undeniable as the overarching security paradigm of this age.

Security defines satisfaction in Iraq

ìIraq is split on war and its aftermath,î by Julie Snider, USA Today, 29 April, p. 4A.

Interesting polling data in Iraq, where breakdowns given for Baghdad, Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. Across the board, those most happy with US-led occupation to date are the Kurds. No surprise, because they feel the most secure.

Polls show ordinary Iraqis happy that we came and got rid of Saddam, but get more resentful of our presence over time due to deteriorating securityóexcept for Kurds, who frankly had their stuff together before we got there thanks to the Northern Fly Zone effectively granting them independence from Saddam.

As I often note, it all starts with security in terms of economic development and the growth of connectivity, but all the bad stuff starts likewise with the lack of securityóincluding a growing hatred of our presence in Iraq.

Trading with the near-peer competitor

ìBush Resists Calls to Pressure China,î by Neil King, Jr., and Michael Schroeder, Wall Street Journal, 29 April, p. A5.

The Pentagon loves to focus on China as the big downstream military threat, but the White House is resisting pressure from US labor unions to get tough on China on trade, which just happens to be up 76% since 2001.

You go, near-peer! Keep sticking it to America with cheap manufactured goods! Pretty soon weíll be putty in Beijingís hands.

G.D. capitalists!

Whoops! I meant ìcommunists.î

Thanks to globalization, shrinking the Gap in Calcutta

ìInflux of Tech Jobs Ushers In Malls, Modernity to Calcutta,î by Joanna Slater, Wall Street Journal, 28 April, p. B1.

Calcutta, or what India now calls Kolkata, is famous for what in your mind?

Ah yes, the Black Hole and Mother Teresa. Surely, globalization would never penetrate there. International business refuses to enter truly poor areas, yes?Tell it to IBM. Their new facility in Calcutta makes that city second only to Bangalore as a target of Big Blueís foreign direct investment in India.

But that only helps high-tech workers there right? Yeah, but guess what? They want to eat in nice restaurants, drive in cabs, go to health clubsóall jobs that trickle down to the poor.

So the Black Hole, she gets a bit smaller each day and globalization rolls on.

The evil twin separated at birth

ìSouth Korea Casts Wary Glance to North,î by James Brooke, New York Times, 29 April, p. W1.

Just a couple of good stats on the nature/nurture debate regarding commie North and capitalist South Korea.

First, six decades of socialist ìbrillianceî at the hands of the great/dear leaders, the Kims, leaves North Korea with $2 billion in industrial inventory. Ah, those socialists know how to generate industry, yes?

South Korea, on the other hand, gets by with a mere $489 billion in industrial inventory.

Great mentor China does about $1billion trade with the North each year, but almost $60billion with South Korea.

Think the U.S. canít cut a deal with Beijing to take down Kim and open up the North?

More reasons why Kim Jong Il should be taken down now

ìNorth Koreaís Top Priority Remains Secrecy After Blast,î by James Brooke, New York Times, 29 April, p. A10.

Just like the famine in late 1990s when Kim refused to let worldís aid in for fear of losing his grip on power, thus letting 3 million of his people starve to death needlessly (half a Holocaust, say I, wondering where the peace marchers are on that one), Pyongyang is yet again stonewalling on aid to victims of the huge explosion last week. Hundreds of blinded kids, we are told, although no one is sureósuch is the extreme disconnectedness in that country that no one outside really knows.

To stop media interviews with survivors, North Korea stopped Chinaís attempts to aid victims of blindness. The regime refused to let South Korea trucks cross the border with relief supplies, fearing its border would be compromised in some unacceptable fashion.

So the suffering continues while the Dear Leader is nowhere to be found on the subject.

Meanwhile the official state media circulates stories claiming residents in the affected areas ran back into their houses to first save their portraits of the Dear Leader, leaving kids behind to suffer longer or even die. First things first for the Wizard of Odd.

If that man isnít an advertisement for the utility of assassinating an evil leader, then who the hell is?

China floats Japanís boat

ìJumping Out of Sick Bay,î by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 29 April, p. A27.

Great quote in Friedman piece: ìTwo-thirds of the reason for [Japanís] recovery is China,î says a Japanese management consultant.

Japan and China hold almost $1Trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds. Increasingly, their view of the world will merge, with Chinaís moving closer to pragmatic Japanís. The U.S. is looking at a dual strategic partner in this pair. We better get used to it, plan for it, and exploit it whenever possible. Those two countries bought the bulk of the sovereign debt we floated to pay for the Iraq war. We better make sure they get the outcome they thought they were buying when they purchased all that debt. Otherwise, next time they may not finance the war.

WTF: UNís bold move on stopping Osama from getting WMD

ìBan on Weapons of Doom Is Extended to Qaeda-Style Groups,î Warren Hoge, New York Times, 29 April, p. A3.

UN Security Council just passed a resolution making it illegal for terror groups to acquire WMD. Of course, no enforcement mechanism is included in the resolution, but member states can lob sanctions against states found guilty of letting the technology get into al Qaedaís hands.

Oooh! That feels safer doesnít it? Pakistan may have to pay a fine or something for enabling Osama to set off a nuke in Manhattan someday.

Digging down deeper on micro loans

ìDebate Stirs Over Tiny Loans for Worldís Poorest,î Celia W. Dugger, New York Times, 29 April, P. A1.

Great article describes push in development community to mandate that more of the money being put into micro-loan programs which are hugely successful (and something I advocate in the conclusion of my book) be directed to the very poor, or those living on less than $1 a day.

Great idea, say I.

Test: PNM News and Mail Bag

Just posting this to see how RSS feeds are rendered.

PNMNews: at /news/news_index.htm

And, some responses to the book Tom received via email.

Oh, the FQA about the PNM is posted now, too.

China's Self-Synchronization of Rule Sets on Finance

(1) "China's Listings Lose Steam: Several Big Stock Sales Are Put Off Amid Accounting Questions," by Joel Baglole, Wall Street Journal, 26 April. p. A13.

Great story on how international investors are beginning to raise more questions about accounting practices in China. Yet another sign that as China opens up to the world to get funding for all that development, it will be forced to import the Core's rule sets more and more. Remember: no rules, no money; no money, no infrastructure, etc.

That's why I call it a "global" transaction strategy!

(2) "Could Overseas Financing Hurt the U.S.?" by Greg Ip. Wall Street Journal, 26 April, p. A2.

Basic theme of PNM book is that US conducts a series of grand transactions with rest of world in terms of what we offer and what we expect in return. One thing we offer world through our willingness to overspend on our budget is a military that can export security to the world. How do we pay for this? We don't on many levels. That sovereign debt is purchased by other nations that prefer to "import" that service from us.

Good article raises the new bugaboo for those smart observers who are catching on to this reality. We are world's biggest debtor, so someone is paying for all that defense buildup after 9/11, plus the two wars, plus the Iraq occupation. That someone is first and foremost China and Japan. Together they now hold roughly a trillion dollars of U.S. Treasury bonds. What they do with those bonds can have huge impact on the U.S. economy, and thus our continued ability to fund defense.

So if you think we're just spending on defense for ourselves, you're wrong. Someone else is buying this service as well, so if we pretend to wage war solely within the context of war and ignore the everything elseólike who pays for itówe're just kidding ourselves about our "unilateralism." China and Japan better continue to approve of the security exports we offer the world, because when they stop approving of that service, we will be hard pressed to continue offering it and the world will suffer.

This is why I say the Core is in this Global War On Terror together or not at all. That's why how we explain ourselves in this GWOT is crucialóno happy ending revealed means no one willing to fund the war.

Building the Sys Admin force on the fly in Iraq

(3) "Army Seeks Ways to Bolster Force in Iraq," by Greg Jaffe, Wall Street Journal, 26 April, p. A4.

Another great article on change within DoD from Greg Jaffe. Speaks to realities like the Pentagon "burning through military police" and "running short of construction-engineer units" in its ongoing occupation of Iraq.

I will say it again: we field a first-half team in a league that keeps score until the end of the game. We are watching halftime adjustments here that would make Bill Walsh shudder with anguish, but make them we must. We need the Sys Admin force here and now in Iraq, and if we have to remake the Reserve Component to get it, we will.

Woodward carrying the White House's water

(4) "The Book That Tops the White House Best-Spinner List," by Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times, 26 April, p. A17.

No surprise here: Woodward's success is so built on access that he has totally been spun by the Bush White House. He thinks he's got some real revelations in his book (not true, as I've noted), but the Bush White House got something far better: validation from the "world's great investigative (hardy har!) reporter" that Bush is firmly in command of the Global War On Terror. Guess who spun who in this national election year?

Woodward is nothing more than a journalistic butt-boy to D.C.'s power elite.

Europe may regret saying no to Osama's offer of civilizational apartheid

(5) "Militants in Europe Openly Call For Jihad and the Rule of Islam," by Patrick E. Tyler and Don Van Natta, Jr., New York Times, 26 April, p. A1.

Some in Europe may believe they can sit on the sidelines in the Global War On Terro, letting the U.S. and others do the dirty work. But if this article's main thesis rings at all true, time may be running short on their ability to maintain geopolitical apathy regarding the world outside Europe.

The U.S. primarily imports Latinos for immigrants, but Europe primarily imports Muslims. Guess who will have a harder time pretending they can live behind firewalls?

Warfighters within the context of everything else

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 25 April

Reference: ìWith Breadwinners Overseas, Guard Families Face Struggle,î by Andrew Jacobs, New York Times, 25 April, p. A1.

Classic story: guy has a dream of running his own catering business. Signs up for the Guard for a little extra money, expectingóat worstósix months somewhere. Now in his 18th month of deployment, his dreams of small business success are coming apart at seams. His military service is bankrupting his family in more ways than one.

His duty? Heís a military police. Why are they being run ragged in Iraq? The Pentagon has spent a decade and a half denigrating Military Operations Other than War. Didnít buy for it. Didnít train enough people for it. Didnít prioritize it. Hid it as much as possible in the Guard, which remains chock-full of artillery batteries that havenít been used in so many years they are almost museum pieces.

S--- hits the fan in the second half in Iraq, and guess who gets holding the back? Reality is: our great Leviathan warfighting force writes checks our embryonic Sys Admin peacekeeping force cannot possibly cover with its meager resources.

Why is this Sys Admin force so starved for money? The Pentagon prefers to think about, plan for, buy for, and wage war within the context of warónot caring about the back half effort such war invariably generates. When youíre planning for great power war with China in the straits of Taiwan in 2025, youíre not planning for a lot of MPs, or armored Humvees, or any of that crap. No sir, those remain ìlesser includeds,î as in, weíll make do with what we have in stock.

Who pays for this bias? The National Guard does (for one), and so does their families.

A Pentagon still obsessed with near-peer competitors does not feel their pain. And a ìwar presidentî canít be bothered with such details.

But a Pentagon committed to fighting a global war on terrorism would care, and a president who worried about the ìeverything elseî portion of that global war on terrorism would understand that victory lies in the smallest details.

Telling, Timing, and Selling: Soul'd to Sony

Richard Clarkeís stunning vision for the future

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 25 April

Reference: ìThe Wrong Debate on Terrorism,î by Richard Clarke, New York Times, 25 April, p. WK15.

Classic Richard Clarke: read this op-ed and see if you can find one decent answer, one transformational proposal, one scrap of strategy, or even one shred of vision about how we win a global war on terrorism. Clarke was always the consummate bureaucrat and it shows: if you need somebody to edit a policy documents, hereís your man. But if you want someone with a vision of what to do next, heís not.

This isnít even an op-ed, itís a bad policy memo.

Here are some of the brilliant, backward looking observations. See if any strike you as new:

• ìÖwe are seriously threatened by an ideological war within Islam.î [never heard that one before]



• ìI do not pretend to know the formula for winning that ideological war.î [which is why you have a bestselling book on combating global terrorism?]



• ìBut I do know we cannot win it without significant help from our Muslim friends.î [do you mean that if weíre going to win this ideological war, some of those people actually have to like us and agree with us?]



• ìWhat we have tried in the war of ideas has also fallen short.î [hmmm, so true]



• We shouldnít undermine existing regimes in the Middle East unless we have game plans for their replacement. [do you think heís talking about Iraq?]



• We have to deal with Israel and Palestine too. [thanks, forgot about that one completely]



• The law enforcement community and the intelligence community werenít prepared for 9/11. [easy for him to say, he was a big player in the latter for about two decadesówhat a minute!]



• ìRather than creating new organizations, we need to give the C.I.A. and F.B.I. makeovers. They cannot continue to be dominated by careerists . . .î [not that he was one]



• ìIn the new F.B.I., marksmanship, arrests and skill on the physical training obstacle course should no longer be prerequisites for recruitment and retention.î [man, I think heís onto something really big here!]



• ìFinally, we must try to achieve a level of public discourse on these issues that is simultaneously energetic and mutually respectful.î [this from a man whoís famous for consistently displaying a lack of ability to play well with others over a very long bureaucratic careeróin short, a celebrated asshole.]

Wow, what an article! This gist of it captured in the highlighted text box: ìTo defeat Al Qaeda, weíll have to stop playing politics.î

This guy is good. Damn it! Heís brilliant. Answering so many questions about what to do and where to go and how we can succeed in the endóif only we stop playing politics.

Like telling stories against your former bosses in government.

Like timing your book release to your testimony in front of blue-ribbon commissions.

Like selling your policy book to Hollywood.

Capturing future leaders: College textbook lists

Former government officials dominate bestseller lists

Reference: ìWhy Books Are The Hot Medium,î by David Kirkpatrick, New York Times, 25 April, p. WK1.

Clarke, OíNeill channeled by Suskind, Karen Hughes, House of Saud/House of Bush, Woodward, and Kitty Kelleyóall bestsellers or certain to be.

All backward looking. All deciding whoís really to blame (or praiseófor Hughes). Almost nothing worth reading about the future. No answers to anything pressing right now. Just finger-pointing. Who knew what and when did they know it. Gotcha journalism elevated to literary pretensions.

Publishers are loving all these best-sellers, but some in the industry fret that serious non-fiction books are being hurt in the process, claiming these instant histories are just very large magazine stories. Leon Wieseltier, literary editor of the New Republic says all of the books ìlacked thoughtfulness, interpretative insight or literary quality that should distinguish books from newspapers or magazinesî (this is the journalist writing, not an exact quote).

Clearly, I hope my book doesnít get seen as falling into that category. Iím not enough of an insider to tell all, plus I havenít left the government in a snit. I hope people do see some thoughtfulness in the material, otherwise it has been a waste of time. I guess the biggest mistake I have made in the book was my decision to blame generally and praise specifically. When I was on my Premediated Media Tour in DC a month ago, a very famous political talk show host I met asked me pointedly about the book: ìIs it hard on Rummy? Cause if youíve got something specific, weíll have you on.î

Wow. What a concept. Have my entire career reduced to crapping on Rummy on national television. Something to tell my grandkids.

Thatís the game right now. Finger someone and run with it for all its worth. I think Iím going to have to satisfy myself with capturing future leadersóboth inside the military and inside politicsówith the vision Iím pushing. Todayís leaders are simply too caught up in the political games of DC to reach with anything this complex and demanding.

Forget the bestseller list, Iím shooting for the college textbook lists.

Jobs that belong with governments: Waging war

In the Gap theyíre ìmercenaries,î but in the Core itís called ìprivate securityî

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 25 April

Reference: ìíOutsourcedí or ëMercenary,í Heís No Soldier,î by James Dao, New York Times, 25 April, p. WK3.

Story about role of private security firms in Iraq: is this new phenom? No, say experts. We can show you long history of such entities in international affairs.

Reality is: whenever youíre talking about stable security rule sets, like we have inside the Core today, these entities are basically rent-a-cops. But move inside the Gap, where the security rule-sets are weak or absent, and these entities add bulk to the point of becoming private armies. So long as we have the Gap, weíll have these mercs, but theyíre not a way to shrink the Gap. You will find these guys where things are really bad, and they are nothing but stop-gap measures for private companies trying hard to do business in security-less situations. In short, the firms are the equivalent of sending a boy to do a manís job.

My vision of the Sys Admin force that the U.S. military fields, along with other states, would keep these guys largely at the margins in the Gap, filling up the corners instead of tackling central jobs like Iraq. Trying to shrink the Gap on the cheap involves a lot of mercenaries, but itís not a recipe for success. The Coreís corporations will come and go in the Gap, entering and leaving according to business decisions regarding profit and loss. We wonít be integrating Iraq into the wider world on the basis of business decisions alone. War isnít out-sourced in such an easy fashion.

So yes, wage war within the context of everything else, but donít pretend you can just push it off on somebody else. There are simply some jobs that belong with governments, and waging war in one of them.