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Monthly Archives

Entries from March 1, 2009 - March 31, 2009

12:16PM

Forget my musings from last night!

Woke up today realizing that chronic low-grade sinusitis back again--now six times in a row after finishing 10 day antibiotic regimes (going back to mid-December).

Completely my fault to be so short-sighted. Should have brought up with regular doc long before now, because it's clear we needed to switch to broader band, lower strength antibiotic for much longer regimen to root this out.

Simply me thinking short-term (get me through this week!) during run-up to book and nine weeks since--very male, very macho, very stupid.

What urped out last night on the blog was the same extremely dark depression that seems to presage--like clockwork--the onset of obvious infection (meaning acute).

So for close readers and potential clients of my speaking services: skip the dark bit about me possibly ditching a speaking career.

Truer answer will be heard tonight on Hugh at end of second hour: I will focus on Enterra and Development-in-a-Boxโ€šร‘ยข (both here in troubled America and abroad) because it's just plain breaking out big-time and I consider it--with Steve--to be a huge part of my life/legacy. But, when Hugh then countered with, "So less speaking and writing?" I replied, "Nah, I'm too big of a ham to give up the stage."

Plus, as I noted to Hugh, the grand strategist (not self-described, just self-actualized) is--by nature--a total evangelist. I couldn't stop proselytizing if I tried.

Plus, I'm landing seriously nice gigs in early 2010, to include a return to Africa. So I am getting psyched!

So no question, armed with the right meds, I stay in the game, all dark and stormy nights aside.

Plus, I'm subsisting, as I always do during creative crises (post-book depression), by reading another Beatles book (Lennon bio) and re-watching "Anthology."

Gotta gear up for the return to more persistent high-rev interactions with the dynamo that is DeAngelis!

4:04AM

Tom's discussions with Hugh Hewitt

This is the master index for all of Tom's discussions with Hugh Hewitt of The Pentagon's New Map and Great Powers

The Pentagon's New Map - 2007

+ Introduction, January 5th: Audio
+ Chapter 1, January 9th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 2, January 16th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 3, January 23rd: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 4, January 30th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 5, February 6th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 6, February 13th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 7, February 20th: Audio | Transcript
+ Chapter 8, February 27th: Audio | Transcript

Great Powers - 2009

+ Introduction, Chapters 1 and 2, February 4th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 3, February 11th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 4, February 19th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 5, February 24th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 6, March 6th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 7, March 30th: Audio | Transcript

+ Chapter 8, April 1st: Audio | Transcript

+ Coda and Acknowledgments, April 1st: Audio | Transcript

3:36AM

Beware a too narrow AFPAK agenda

ARTICLE: Obama Says He Is Sharpening Focus of War in Afghanistan, By Michael D. Shear, Washington Post, March 30, 2009; Page A06

I always get a bit worried when I hear we're just going to focus on reducing Al Qaeda's operational capacity in a country, because that insinuates the usual cockroach-spraying technique that simply sees them move to another location. We already did the minimal effort in Afghanistan and AQ moved to the FATA in Pakistan, leaving us with a weak Afghanistan and now an unstable Pakistan. Just rinsing-and-repeating on that in Pakistan would seem to leave me with a pair of weak statelets (Afghanistan/FATA) with a new one brought into the mix (Baluchistan, by all indications, becomes the next apartment over).

In short, the "narrow" agenda smacks of Powell Doctrine to me: "I go, I shoot, I don't fix up but at least I drive out the bad guy and then I leave, and then I wonder why the situation never gets any better and X years later this situation still sucks and still creates bad outputs I need to deal with."

If you adopt the narrow agenda, on some level then, I don't know why you even bother making the effort, because it simply wears you down and costs money, it ruins more places, and AQ simply continues doing what AQ does best--move when the apartment is sprayed.

3:30AM

Iraq realpolitik

ARTICLE: In Iraq, 2 Key U.S. Allies Face Off,
By Sudarsan Raghavan and Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, March 30, 2009; Page A01

Hard not to expect that the Iraqi Shia, with the Iraq Army firmly in control, won't start going after the Awakening types. From the perspective of the Kurds, this was always the expected first step, with them as #2.

For a while there, it looked like you might see the dynamics fast-forwarded to the point where it would rapidly become Arab-v-Kurd, and I think you will definitely still see that on Kirkuk and Mosul and all the bits outside the KRG's current three provinces where some Kurdish ambition remains. But at least this way, the Shia controlling Baghdad have to fight a bit of a two-front effort, which it looks like they're more than willing to attempt right now.

Upshot?

The scenario by which a Shia strongman simply eventually replaces the old Sunni one seems on track. If I'm Saudi Arabia, that gets my attention and logically my support in some effort to prevent, and then we're back to the possibility of significant civil strife backed by outsiders.

If I'm the Kurds, I would welcome this prospect versus the one in which the Shia successfully move forward on the Sunni Awakening players and then inevitably turn north in their ambitions.

At some point in our withdrawal process, we're going to have to ask ourselves how well we will live with an outcome that, if left unchecked, may empower Iran dramatically.

Yes, the Arab Shia in Iraq won't exactly kow-tow, and yet, if they go down the path of trying to reestablish a unitary state, this time under Shia control, they will meet with a lot of local resistance and Iran will inevitably become the major sponsor.

Lest anyone forget that a rollback strategy on Iran isn't just about Hamas and Hezbollah and Syria. It's also about making sure the Shia don't simply replace Saddam with a new dictatorship, because Maliki is making all the steps to keep that option seemingly open and real.

3:18AM

An easy prediction on IMF

FRONT PAGE: "Rising Powers Challenge U.S. On I.M.F. Role," by Mark Landler, New York Times, 30 March 2009.

In Great Powers, I talk about the IMF sensibly moving down the scale from fairly solid New Core pillars to emerging markets truly on the edge in this crisis. But the obvious payback for these G-20 (relative) newbies is that they get a whole lot more say on how the IMF works.

No question about the G-20 as clear center of great power gravity. That is an old theme of mine. Anybody think to call the UN? Nah. Biggest crisis in decades and it's completely irrelevant.

Why?

Well, I guess we're still waiting on all those wars everybody keeps predicting. Sporadic street protests just aren't doing it for me.

Then you find yourself hoping for something big from China, but instead of conquering Taiwan, Beijing bores us to tears by focusing on things like who decides what at the IMF and the need for a global reserve currency other than the dollar.

Disappointingly sensible.

Instead of WWIII, we have to settle for Lil' Kim launching his latest.

Pretty sad line-up for the end of the world as we know it.

Where's Jack Van Impe when you need him?

2:41AM

Perfect example of the accepted enclave stepping over the unacceptable line

NATIONLINE: "Outhouses put Amish man in Big House," by John Bacon, USAToday, 18 March 2009.

Want to remain with the 18th-century standard on toilets?

Fine, we'll accommodate your beliefs, so long as you don't transgress our sanitation laws, because that's when even John Mills wouldn't agree with you.

4:51PM

The great Hewitt series (buy all 17 volumes for this low, low price!) is complete--for now

Wow! Hard to believe it's finally over because it was so much fun and so rewarding as an author to spend that much time discussing your books in depth.

But tonight Hugh and I taped the final two "hours" (roughly 38 mins each) of his series on Great Powers, giving us a total of eight hours total on GP to go along with the 9 hours total on PNM.

Performed well in the first hour. Got a bit tired in the second, losing my place once (question on growing the US: I started on Europe and completely lost track of question, wandered around a bit, and never got back to U.S.), which isn't too bad (but always embarrassingly--as in, how can you forget the question!?).

Isn't that an amazing volume? 17 hours to discuss two books. And I mean, it's not just having an author on to comment on current events. We really did not talk current events across these 17 hours, but really focused on PNM and GP.

Hugh runs the last two hours tomorrow in sequence on his show.

I will miss the interaction, but we may link up in the future. It was a great interaction, and I really thank Hugh for the effort and the time AND the exposure.

I plan on keeping the Hewitt button up for the long haul, and Sean will make that button link to all 17 hours (from early 2007 and this past two months--to include all the transcripts). It is an incredibly legacy and worth promoting, because if you want to know what I'm about and what I'm pushing in terms of vision, the easiest route is simply to listen to the 17 episodes.

Only downside to this event? I really do feel like, now, almost nine weeks later, I'm basically done on promoting GP.

And you feel a little lost with that sensation. Of course, I will keep promoting it in the brief for months and years (as the brief evolves), but this is like the end of a long-term relationship: this book has dominated my agenda now for about a year and a half.

So now what?

That question is more complex than it seems. I have long forged the dual businessman/thought leadership tracks, and now, with the speaking market so down (very sensitive to the downturn), I wonder if I'm not on the cusp of significant change. Enterra keeps booming; I could easily get swallowed into that and feel very positive about it, in large part because it's very exciting working with Steve DeAngelis and because I really do find the grand strategy nexus located there more than I do with the military or government at this point in history. Plus, with Steve, I get to be the quieter one, as I play the more taciturn Penn to his voluble Gillette. I get to think more and be less the constant broadcast source. After the long drain of a book, that's very appealing.

But then there's the larger question of evolution: do I want to keep blogging so much, writing so much in general, doing Esquire and the column and all the speaking. It is exhausting a lot of the time; you wonder how many years you will do it before you just say, enough, and transition to the next thing. There are so many careers out there worth having, that I don't fear such transitions. I look at life as a sequence of opportunities, and frankly, I sometimes wonder if I've run this one to ground: played all the venues I've wanted to play, delivered all the talks I want to deliver, done the media experiences as much as they interest me, and so on.

At times like this, I get Joaquin Phoenix: you did the thing for a while, and you did well. Who says you have to do it forever on that basis? Because the longer you do that thing, the more you feel like it's all you can do.

And so I start thinking about what consumes me next. The dual track has served Enterra well, but I do sense some sort of evolution coming on. In that role as senior managing director, I have to figure out the best package going forward--the best combination I bring to the table.

To be less ambitious in this unprecedented global churn would feel like wasting the opportunity for reinvention. Steve is in high gear right now. The question is, How best to capitalize on all this?

3:46AM

The real struggle in the gulf

ARTICLE: With eye against Iran, Arabs wooing Syria, By
SALAH NASRAWI, Washington Times, March 27, 2009

When the Israel distraction is peeled away, the real struggle in the Gulf is revealed.

Better to contain Iran and roll back influence at the margins than make this a struggle over its reach for the bomb, which we will not prevent.

(Thanks: Rob Quayle)

3:44AM

Bush, Obama tactics: not that different

ARTICLE: No Givens As Obama Steps Onto World Stage, By Michael D. Shear, Washington Post, March 29, 2009; Page A01

I must admit: a recent reader's question of "what is different?" about Obama's plan from Bush's old approach does ring some truth for me.

Given what Bush was doing and likely to do in any refocused operation, I don't think it would have looked that differently in the tactics. The only real differences are the decision to focus on it (which I guess Bush would have eventually done) and what we don't yet know/see in terms of reaching out to regional players (and that is a big difference--especially with Iran).

But the tactics (numbers, more civ effort, build up Afghan gov/econ, shoot up FATA, talk to Taliban), except for talk to Taliban, aren't really that different.

Why?

Bush didn't have a policy per se. He had a military in charge for a while.

And that hasn't really changed with Obama.

2:58AM

The world's a safer place

POST: Safety in Numbers - The "New World Order" [Point of View], By jberry, 2/17/2009

Very much in the vein of a recent column of mine.

(Thanks: Lexington Green)

2:56AM

GP in Pinehurst

Dick Maag wrote in earlier this month to say:

Tom-Yesterday's edition of our thrice weekly newspaper, The Pilot (Pinehurst), reported Great Powers as the number two best seller for last week. I pre-ordered mine from Amazon back in June and two more for sons in January. All of us have enjoyed the book. I continue to faithfully read your blogs every day. Have never missed one since you started. Keep up the great job.

2:35AM

Tom on Hugh for GP chapter 7

Audio and transcript are up

2:18AM

Tom around the web

Got a fair number of links from Tom's HASC testimony:
+ Small Wars Journal linked Tom's testimony today.
+ The Custodian over at Information Dissemination also talked about the hearing (in addition to Galrahn).
+ Made Tom the quote of the day
+ New Wars linked this week's column.

+ BrothersJudd Blog linked Twelve steps to a new grand strategy and Redefining America's global role.
+ TurcoPundit also linked Twelve steps to a new grand strategy.

+ Bernard Finel responds to Tom's Selling ice boxes to eskimos.
+ HG's WORLD linked last week's column.
+ David Axe linked My own personal 5GW dream.
+ Test Information Space promoted GP.
+ Korea Times reprinted 'Threat of Great Power War Recedes'.
+ ShrinkWrapped linked Don't panic, Beginning to see how far we'll end up going on AFPAK, Good Obama foreign policy, bad Obama foreign policy and Payback on our stupidity.
+ Verus Politics: Truth and Reason posted about GP, following up on Tom's discussions with Hugh.

12:37PM

Tom in SC

Tom will be speaking at The Citadel in Charleston, SC at 6:30pm on April 7th and it will be open to the public.

Organized through a partnership between The Citadel and The Free Enterprise Foundation, and sponsored by The NEFA Foundation, this special speaking engagement will begin at 6:30 p.m. on April 7 in The Citadel's Graham Copeland Auditorium, located in Grimsley Hall.

A big thanks to Michael S. Smith II who has been the prime mover in this effort.

Here's the official pdf

3:58AM

Column 147

Advice for Navy's future

This week I testified before the Seapower Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee regarding the Department of Navy's long-range strategic planning. This is what I told them.

Having spent the last decade arguing that America's grand strategy should center on fostering globalization's advance, I welcomed the Department's 2007 Maritime Strategic Concept that stated, "As our security and prosperity are inextricably linked with those of others, U.S. maritime forces will be deployed to protect and sustain the peaceful global system comprised of interdependent networks of trade, finance, information, law, people and governance."

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

1:23PM

A first for me

Three spots in top 100 sellers International Security on Amazon:

#17 PNM paperback

#41 BFA paperback

#80 PNM hardcover.

I've had two volumes on a list plenty of times, but this is the first time I see three.

Then I wonder how GP is listed under International-->Relations but not International Security.

Still, as ego-surfing goes, no complaints.

Larger point: Want to sell your old books? Write a new one that sells well.

GP Hardcover is now #9 Politics/US and #12 International/Relations, with the Kindle at #3 Politics/US and #8 International/Relations. GP hardcover sits overall at 1,733, no doubt bounced by the four radios this week.

That stuff finally winds down after nine weeks, so I better enjoy this while it lasts.

Now I go back to selling more the old-fashioned way: talks.

3:55AM

Shoot-down?

ARTICLE: North Korean Nuclear Test A Growing Possibility, By Blaine Harden, Washington Post, March 27, 2009; Page A01

ARTICLE: Japan Readies Missile Defense System, By Blaine Harden, March 27, 2009

I can't help wondering what it would take to shoot down this DPRK missile. Would be a neat trick to pull off. Not sure what level of blowback we'd get from other great powers or whether or not we've got the international law rationales lined up for it (I'm guessing we could make a decent case).

Because it would really spook Pyongyang in a cool way--and Tehran too.

I mean, if Japan is geared up for it, why not just do it for some Western solidarity?

Just day-dreaming...

3:50AM

The Kurdistan squeeze

ARTICLE: Iraqi general's presence in Kirkuk stirs dark memories, By Ned Parker, Los Angeles Times, March 26, 2009

Now the serious squeeze begins. Kurds always knew it was coming, just spooky using an old Saddam general who did some of it last time.

My sense is that the Kurds will never get Kirkuk and will have to be satisfied with the trio of provinces.

(Thanks: Patrick O'Connor)

2:52AM

Core doctrinal change

ARTICLE: Pentagon Rethinking Old Doctrine on 2 Wars, By THOM SHANKER, New York Times, March 14, 2009

Now we are getting to the core doctrinal change: the force-sizing rationales that have dominated our thinking since Cold War's end.

As soon as the Pentagon admits to the need to balance the here-and-now conflicts with hypothetical future ones, some serious rebalancing between the small wars and big-wars force structures is possible.

(Thanks: Dan Hare)

1:04PM

Tom on BBC

RADIO: Analysis: Obama's Pentagon, By Mark Urban, BBC 4, March 26, 2009

Half hour program including a couple of quick clips with Tom: The first part begins at 20 minutes in and ends by 21:20. The second runs from 24:30 to 25:15. 6 days left to listen.