The coming capitalism

FEATURE: "10 Fixes for the Planet: Scientists, inventors and entrepreneurs are focusing on ways to help the environment. Some of our favorite ideas." By Anne Underwood, Newsweek, 14 April 2008, p. 52.

The cool quote: "We have to stop treating the earth as a wholly-owned subsidiary of our economy."

Not a problem when the bulk of the world lives either in the Malthusian reality of the Gap (wealth and population are inversely related) or the Soviet bloc (where all are equally lower-middle class) and only a fraction of the planet lives within America's liberal international trade order (about 15% of humanity in 1980 that controls two-thirds of the world's productive power and wealth). But once you jump to about 5/6ths of the planet living within that order, and the consumption ramps up dramatically just like it did in the West after 1800 (see A Farewell to Alms by Gregory Clark, then you have to start factoring in your "natural capital" in the manner advocated by Amory Lovins (whose ideas are being featured in more and more books, making him a powerful grand strategist in big-thinking circles today—and yes, he really is a grand strategist for today's world, which is way beyond the vision of the classic balance-of-power crowd).

Yes, I know, it's so stoopid to compare China to America's past (except here I go again)

COVER STORY: "Suburbia: It's not just in America anymore; U.S. now a model for how to handle growth—and what to avoid," by Haya El Nasser, USA Today, 16 April 2008, p. 1A.

Starts off with a Chinese delegation studying a subdivision for elders in Phoenix. Why? China is throwing together new cities like crazy, and there's a lot of elders piling up, so why not study somebody with a lot of experience in planning out suburbs?

Turns out China's not the only one. Basically, a lot of New Core/Seam States do it, to include Pakistan, Argentina, India, Russia, Vietnam. All very natural, because we're talking almost explosive rates of urbanization all over the emerging market universe.

And before you get too scared: on average, the consumption footprint actually decreases with urbanization on a per capita basis, because you tend to share so much infrastructure and energy.

One region that very much copies the U.S. is Latin America. Turns out people want suburbs there for all the same reasons we do.

So yeah, another way to think about China is America's 1950s for both the suburbia build-out and the freeway building spree.

My son Kevin publishes his first photo in a major magazine

Not bad for someone barely a teenager!

Hanging out in Philly airport and I'm in a Hudson to buy some water and so I starting scanning mags.

I see the bright red cover and the words above (apparently in Chinese too) and, in my sleep-deprived brain, I say to myself, "Damn, I gotta buy and read that one!"

Then it dawns on me: I wrote that one!

Now I also realize that I've checked out Good in the past, often on the basis of cool cover art. Same deal here.

It is a slick looking mag, and I was very happy with the way the piece was presented. Cool to see it comes out in 15 other countries.

The main person I worked with on the piece was Features Editor Siobhan O'Connor.

The piece is spread over pages 58 to 65, interrupted with a fold-out section that provides a lot of basic, fun-to-know facts and details on China. Overall, an impressive issue with a wonderful spread on China. Very cool to be associated with the effort, especially since I'm first up in the big spread.

And you've got to check out the contributor's photo on page 16. It constitutes my son Kevin's first mass-published photograph. He shot a bunch of pix of me in various, Chinese-flavored poses (easy in our house) and the one that took has me in front of our antique fireplace (cherry, from some Indy house built around the turn of the last century; the marble you see is the same stuff we've got in our kitchen). I'm holding the five stuffed mascots of the 2008 Beijing Games. Behind me you can sort of make out the following: 2 onyx cats I bought at the Great Pyramids for Vonne, on either side of the 3 Chinese bone carvings of Prosperity, Longevity and Health [if I remember them correctly], and on the left a marble etching of our four kids that Vonne and I had made in China, using a photo of our three older kids and then one of Vonne Mei, done with a Polaroid, that we superimposed. Overall, it's the coolest of the shots we took, so I'm not surprised they used it.

Congratulations, Kevin!

Globalization is boring

ARTICLE: Robert Kaplan on the New Balance of Power, By Trudy Kuehner, April 2008, Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes

Why balance of power thinking is so attractive to writers is its essential zero-sumness: any "rise" equals somebody else's loss. As such, analysis can be presented in the desired "who's up and who's down?" format so loved in DC.

The economics, as always with Kaplan, is muted beyond the always underlying subtext of coming resource wars ("Oil! We must have oil, my good sir! "). The stunning rise of globalization's network trade is, sadly, a poor relation in such discussions, because it depresses those who focus on "power" and "competition" and the like. Real integration is boring. There are no imperial corollaries from the 19th century. There's no romance. It just plain sucks. There's no who's up or who's down. No good visuals. Hard to explain. "Great games' sound just so much more exciting.

Oh well, there's always pirates ...

Maybe more evidence of a deal-in-the-making

ARTICLE: US and Iran holding 'secret' talks on nuclear programme, By Anne Penketh, Independent, 14 April 2008

Again, it's the only foreign policy legacy that Bush can pull out of his hat before leaving that will truly shift history's treatment.

(Thanks: jacob roland)

Tom around the web

Links to Better for America that Petraeus does CENTCOM instead of EUCOM:
+ Andrew Sullivan
+ SWJ Blog x2
+ Left Flank
+ New Wars
+ Cobb
+ Headline Junky
+ Danger Room
+ Consul-At-Arms

+ Outside the Beltway linked How I would welcome a McCain presidency, agreeing that Clinton or Obama would probably not be a protectionistic as President as their current pandering.
+ OTB got linked by VOT3R and The Ruckus (a Newsweek weblog).

+ Fabius Maximus called Tom a 'cold-blooded Machiavellian', though I'm not sure that was meant as an insult.
+ PurpleSlog called it a cheap shot and discussed the SysAdmin some more.
+ THE LAND OF THE FREE quoted PNM.
+ Todd McLauchlin lists this weblog as a must read.
+ gmgDesign linked The Chinese are everywhere!
+ Vinay Gupta linked Robbing Peter's meal to gas Paul's car.
+ Esper embedded the YouTube video.
+ War Is Boring linked the GOOD article.

+ Petraeus Named to Head All U.S. Forces in Middle East mentioned Tom's Esquire article on Fallon.
+ So did US Top Iraq Commander Assumes Centcom.
+ So did Adam Kokesh.

Links to/embeds of the TED video:
+ Bruce Lays it Out Good B.L.O.G.
+ Serious Games Tumblr
+ This F---ing War
+ tedang.net
+ Blogs of War
+ Mark Blevis

+ Cobb also linked History will condemn us if... and A big, good step forward.

+ TurcoPundit linked Classic COIN counter-attack.
+ And linked Very sensible Scales on Iraq.

+ SWJ Blog linked Classic COIN counter-attack and Ground forces win postwars.
+ And linked Very sensible Scales on Iraq.

+ AZspot linked this week's column.
+ So did HG's WORLD.
+ Red Telephone
+ So did TurcoPundit.

History will condemn us if...

ARTICLE: Iran Top Threat To Iraq, U.S. Says, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, April 12, 2008; Page A01

Poor choice of words on Bush administration's part: we end up doing in Iraq what the region's players do with each regional crisis--namely we use it as a venue for proxy conflicts. First it was Al-Qaeda, now it's Iran. This sort of approach miss-characterizes internal conflict as "our war," meaning we "must win" or we lose face and possibly the larger--equally mis-characterized--"global war."

That is what scares me about McCain: his is a world at war. That's what he grew up with as a kid. It's the environment within which he most comfortably wields power. When he lacks it, he must create it through the anger, the feuding, the personal vendettas.

It's that conflict paradigm that could kill our global economy just as easily as protectionism. Indeed, the former enables the latter.

Between Obama's trade pandering and McCain's war pandering, you really have to wonder if America is hell-bent on destroying an international liberal economic order that is our gift to humanity, doing so right at its moment of global apogee.

History will condemn us for our stupidity if this is all we can manage.

Four on a match

Long day.

Got up at 0400 the morning after family celebration (First Communion) and hit the road to Indy airport. Commuter to Dulles and then another to Syracuse, where I addressed National Security Program class (mid-career officers and other depts' civilians) at Maxwell school.

Then signed all their books and did Q&A over lunch. Then back to airport for delayed flight to Philly that never happens, so I go O'Hare instead (third United Express) and catch late Canada Air to Montreal, getting to bed around 0100 Tuesday.

Too bad because I speak at 0800!

Wrong-headed thinking from another age

ARTICLE: Clinton: Pentagon Must Buy US Goods, By CHARLES BABINGTON, Apr 13, 2008, AP

That cat's already out of the bag. The question now is, Do you want the world's best defense or just a jobs program masquerading as such?

Smacks of desperation, in my mind.

A big, good step forward

POST: Indian Army To Train Afghanistan, Uzbekistan Armed Forces, India Defence, 4/24/2007

As this unfolds, a big good step forward. If you want stakeholders, you have to pull players into the process so as to increase their confidence and skill sets. Great re-branding stuff, if it works.

(Thanks: Vadim Frenkel)

The blunter the (two-way) approach, the better

POST: Australia to China: Let's Not Be Friends, Pomfret's China

Cool and sophisticated approach. When I've spoken at Chinese universities (Beijing, Tsinghua), I find the blunter the approach, the better the response. The modern definition of friendship cited here, I find, corresponds to the older, Deng-influenced generations, whereas the younger ones prefer more honesty--in the vein of "great powers don't let other great powers drive ideologically drunk".

The give?

The dialogue is presumed to go in both directions, so don't expect to be in transmit mode at all times.

(Thanks: Bill Millan)

Vietnam-era logic

OP-ED: IRAN'S BUSTED IRAQ BID, By Amir Taheri, New York Post, April 10, 2008

I would be interested in John Robb's take on this: using Second/Third-Generation Warfare stats (body bag count) to declare victory in Fourth-Generation Warfare.

Rinse and repeat, say I, and see which side cries "uncle" first.

This sort of logic strikes me as very Vietnam-era.

(Thanks: jacob roland)

First time ever this happens to me

Sitting on planes and have people sitting right next to me pull out current issues of Esquire and start reading my piece.

Then it happens three times in the last three weeks of high-paced travel.

Boys and Bears

NFL sked just out and I've got the Cowboys on Sunday night in early September and the Bears at 12 noon in mid November.

Both are new teams for me at Lambeau, so very cool.

Still, the Pack has got one nasty looking sked set up. Gonna be a miracle if we get near 13-3 again.

SysAdmin reporting on the ground...

POST: Builders of Nations, By Michael Totten, Middle East Journal, April 8, 2008

by Totten, who's very solid.

(Thanks: Kim Sommer)

Bush's only hope for a positive foreign policy legacy

OP-ED: US edges closer to engaging Iran
By M K Bhadrakumar, Asia Times Online, Apr 12, 2008

Some interesting stuff. The one real hope Bush has for a lasting positive foreign policy legacy is some shocking breakthrough on Iran. Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon--everyone is ripe for this.

(Thanks: Vlad Signorelli)

This week's column

The next religious awakening

As our era features globalization's rapid and unprecedented advance, it will logically also feature the greatest single religious awakening the world has ever seen. Religion will become eminently more important because economic conditions will change more dramatically in coming years and decades than at any other time in human history.

Hardly the clash of civilizations, this upsurge will reflect the efforts of societies to adapt to an era of widespread abundance as a global middle class emerges. People want an independent code of behavior to help them navigate all these new opportunities--guidelines for a life well led.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

I sent in the title as 'The next (globalization-inspired) religious awakening'. But I never really thought that parenthetical statement would make it through.

Very sensible Scales on Iraq

OP-ED: "The Sergeant Solution," by Robert H. Scales, Wall Street Journal, 8 April 2008, p. A21.

I don't often compliment Scales. Then again, he's gone out of his way to dismiss me (Tom types, feeling his inner John Adams), but this is a very solid piece that truly speaks to further Army SysAdmin specialization (the part of my thinking Scales publicly derided in the past).

Here's Scales saying we need something like 15k Army mil-mil trainers, or 3/4ths the total of Nagl's proposed Army Advisory Corps that Casey (Chief od Staff) and other top Army brass are dismissing as institutionalizing a one-off requirement.

Accolades for Howe

Remember when Tom reviewed Daniel Walker Howe's, What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815-1848?

One of the best American period histories I've ever read. Balances the organizational with the narrative and the macro analytical with the micro historical detail. I took the better parts of two days to read, I found it that good.

The Pulitzer committee thought the same thing.

Tom's using it in the history section of Great Powers.

Most excellent piece on global warming that makes best economic point

OP-ED: "Climate Change Opportunity: Business is just waiting for Congress to set the rules of the game," by Fred Krupp, Wall Street Journal, 8 April 2008, p. A20.

Krupp, prez of Enviro Defense Fund (solid org), has book out (Earth: the Sequel), which I scanned at airport bookstore but did not buy (seemed rehashy), despite my coveting the clever title.

I may have to reconsider on the basis of this op-ed.

"Solving" global warming is its own myth, even if the trend is not. We may slow a bit but we won't stop, and nothing, neither good nor bad, will happen as fast as assumed. The Earth's own correcting mechanisms are poorly understood.

What isn't poorly understood is the reality of adding a 2 billion-strong global middle class in the next generation. All the energy and transport and food and infrastructure needed for that is a huge biz and tech opportunity (more to Krupp's optimistic tone here), so I don't care about warming debates per se, I worry more about the associated fear-mongering on future "resource wars" and where some very specious logic on that score will take us.

Biz reality that pierces both goofy bubbles (any "crash" gov programs or pimping the Leviathan anew) is that we, the world, really haven't gone after huge energy inefficiencies in our economy and that will be major focus of coming years. The corporate responsibility song will be about global warming, but it will be a purely bottom-line--as in, this is how we beat back competition (especially sloppy Chinese) globally and institute the new wave of global platform and network leanness. Plus it fits with selling to the bottom of the pyramid.

As Dan Hare likes to say: "Go man go!" (I prefer "Go dog go!" for literary reasons).