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Monthly Archives

Entries from November 1, 2015 - November 30, 2015

12:09PM

Resilience is something you learn; resilience is something you earn

WHAT YOU SEE IN THIS PHOTO IS THE FUTURE OF AMERICA: Whites as the "majority-minority."  It's my family's holiday photo from a few years back, showing our three "biological" kids along with three whom we adopted from abroad (one from China, two biological sisters from Ethiopia).  If you're surprised to hear that European-descent Americans will "soon" (2043) be outnumbered by non-European-descent Americans, rest assured that I remain equally (and continuously) surprised to find myself the father of a Scot-Irish-German-Chinese-Ethiopian-American family (with three immigrants).

Actually, whites are the majority-minority already in four US states (Hawaii, California, Texas, and New Mexico), and will achieve that status among US children  in approximately three years.  A done deal, as they say, but certainly a stressful one that can engender all sorts of "take back America!" social tensions.  But as we know from history, the most "mixed" societies tend to be the most resilient, while the most racially homogeneous tend to be most brittle.  It's just that such resilience isn't a given, nor is it something with which we are born.  It's something we learn slowly, on a day-to-day basis.  It's an accumulation of experiences.  It's anything but a trivial skill or characteristic.

There's a lot of political controversy right now over the question of accepting Syrian refugees - particularly after the Paris terror strikes (as it has been discovered that one of the assailants snuck into Greece posing as a refugee).  Roughly half of US governors are - under rather dubious claims of authority - declaring their states off-limits, while others are saying they'll be happy to take them.  At first glance, it's easy to write off the former as "racists" or "Islamophobes," but it's both premature and unhelpful to do so.  Because oftentimes it's a matter of strong variations in social resilience, which - again - comes down to experience.

Two recent Washington Post stories explore these variations.  The first introduces the reader to the "first majority-Muslim U.S. city" in Hamtramck, Michigan.  Muslim politicians there recently won the majority of city council seats, and that's naturally created some tensions in a city long dominated by Polish Catholics.  Simplest example:  mosques in Hamtramck are allowed to issue their five-times-a-day call to prayer.  Unprecedented?  Hardly.  Christian churches have long been free to ring their bells to call the faithful to services.  But still, if you've ever traveled to a Muslim country as a non-Muslim and heard the call, it's truly a different frame of reference - something to which it takes a while to get used.

And that's what's largely missing on this particular political "hot potato": the vast majority of Americans (94%) don't - according to another WAPO article - interact with Muslims on a daily basis.  I'm not pointing fingers here: my Chinese daughter is the first Asian with whom I've spoken on a daily basis.  Ditto for my two black African girls.  Does that exposure now make me an expert on either group?  Hardly. But does it make it a lot easier for me to interact with Asians and blacks on a day-to-day basis?  Yeah, it does.  It also makes me highly interested in social and political and economic issues that touch upon these groups.

This is not a call for some facile, kumbaya personal epiphany among all Americans. I'll leave that argument to the preachers.  It's merely an appeal for patience.  America is 50 states, some of which are better prepared to accept an influx of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees - a flow that, in and of itself, represents a global disaster-management task.  But some US states are not - at this time - similarly resilient.  They may lack the experience with Muslims that makes Michigan more adept.  They may already be struggling to process historically heavy Latino immigrant flows (think of states bordering Mexico).  Point being, not all 50 states are equally endowed with this form of social and political resilience right now.

So here's a potentially controversial proposal:  let's encourage Syrian refugees to go where they're most welcome right now, without demonizing those states where politicians say no.  Over time, the success of those more resilient states will set a competitive example.  It's happened many times across US history with regard to numerous waves of immigration.  It's also recently happened with gays and lesbians.  States learn to want their business, their tourism dollars, their investments, and - ultimately - their permanent presence.  Laws are changed, attitudes are adjusted, communities become more accepting, and we all grow more resilient in the process.  Simply put, the more diverse the perspectives we accumulate, the better able we collectively are to surmount current and future challenges.

Something to consider this Holiday Season.

1:33PM

RESILIENT BLOG: Is America Ready For Soft-Target Terror Attacks? Short Of Agreed-Upon Metrics, It’s Anybody’s Guess.

From Time Story

ON WEDNESDAY TIME POSTED A JUDICIOUSLY GAUGED OVERVIEW of the near-term threat posed by ISIS across the United States (“The State of Terror Defenses in the U.S.”).  I say “judicious” because it avoids the usual fear-mongering hype so typical of these stories in the immediate aftermath of any notable terror strike.  The story notes that Americans have about a 1-in-20-million chance of dying in a terror strike (the historical record to date), but that, as a significant “soft power” (our economic, social, media, financial, etc. strengths), we naturally present a lot of soft targets (iconic sights, critical infrastructure, social gathering places) to terror groups ...

READ THE ENTIRE POST AT:


5:49PM

RESILIENT BLOG: The Paris Terror Attacks Remind Us That ISIS Needs Our Help To Survive

The Gap Map (real and threatened) as I would draw it today

Posted on November 18, 2015 at 4:40 pm by 

IN A SERIES OF COORDINATED ATTACKS IN PARIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) succeeds in “socializing” a war that it cannot hope to win on its home turf – without our help. Once the “central front” of America’s “war on terror,” this fight is now most definitely France’s to pursue with a vigor that its citizens may well regret. Russia faces similar strategic temptations after its jet airliner was blown up by an ISIS regional affiliate.

Don’t get me wrong: the civilized world (and by that I mean virtually everyone but ISIS) does need to eliminate this millenarian movement’s strategic sanctuary in the Levant. There is no possibility of coexistence with a violent extremist organization looking to trigger an “end times” apocalypse. And yes, that will be a very bloody effort that no one power should attempt to undertake on its own – particularly in a fit of intense national grief and anger over its citizens being heinously murdered ...

READ THE ENTIRE POST AT:

2:21PM

Accepting the position of Senior Research Fellow, Knowfar Institute for Defense and Security Studies

I also recently accepted an offer from China's first government-recognized NGO on defense and international security to serve as its first Senior Research Fellow.  It is an incredible honor and I look very much forward to doing some great work with the institute's very impressive staff.

I just agreed to do my first research project for KIDSS on the concept of "splendid little wars."  I will be presenting my findings in Beijing in December.

From the institute's website:

Knowfar Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies (KISDS) is a Chinese think tank which focuses on following and analysing long-term strategic and defence issues. The institute provides government institutions and policymakers with advice based on its independent and in-depth research. Since its establishment, KISDS has been conducting quality research according to its major principles: "independent, objective, deliberation, and discernment." It aims to provide a platform for international discussion of strategic and defence issues, through organizing forums and seminars; publishing academic journals; and interacting with the academic community and think tanks.

Headquartered in Beijing, KISDS is divided into four specialized research units: The Centre for Strategic Studies, the Centre for Battle and Tactics Studies, and the Centre for Eurasian Studies. It publishes five journals, namely, Knowfar Defence Review, CIS and East European Defense Review, Asia Pacific Defence Quarterly, Cyber Review and UAV Review.

2:13PM

Joining the Security Advisory Board of iJet International

 

I recently signed a three-year contract with iJet International, a fascinating company that truly fulfills a significant slice of what I long described as the System Administrator function.

What I always said about my notion of the SysAdmin was that it would be more civilian than uniform, more USG than DoD, more rest of the world than just the United States, and - most importantly - more private-sector driven than public-sector funded.  So, no, I'm not surprised to be working with this very impressive firm.

From the company's website:

Helping Organizations Operate Globally With Confidence 

iJET International delivers intelligence-driven, integrated risk management solutions that enable multinational organizations to operate globally with confidence. iJET’s end-to-end, tailored solutions integrate world-class threat intelligence, innovative technology, and response services to help organizations avoid threats and mitigate risk.

In 1999, iJET became one of the first companies to offer intelligence-driven risk management to the travel industry — a change that ultimately transformed travel and security departments worldwide. iJET’s Travel Intelligence® and Worldcue® risk-management software revolutionized corporate and government business travel with the promise of keeping employees safe — not just on time.

Building on that legacy, iJET provides Integrated Risk Management solutions that begin and end with intelligence. Our proprietary technology and network of security, intelligence and geopolitical experts allows us to deliver unmatched custom intelligence, preparedness and response solutions that help clients protect their people, facilities, suppliers and information around the world. Whether your business is expanding, consolidating, or maintaining, iJET has the expertise to help you navigate your next steps for success.