WPR's The New Rules: 3-D Printing Could Ease Strains of Global Population

According to the United Nations, today marks the birth of the world’s 7 billionth person, an event sure to cause great angst among the many surviving Malthusians who still believe that humanity’s ingenuity and the planet’s resources are both finite. But thanks to globalization’s continued advance and the modernization it enables, roughly four-fifths of humans live in societies with falling birth rates and half live in societies featuring lower than replacement-rate fertility. So we now know that the trajectory of global population growth will proceed somewhat more slowly toward our eighth and ninth billions, and that we may never reach the 10th.

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Volume 3 of "Emily Updates" now available for purchase

Find the Kindle edition here.

Find the iBook edition here.

Find the Nook edition here.

When politics stops being "low," the middle class-fueled "progressivism" kicks in

Theodore's respectable and well-to-do New York-based Dutch family was aghast when, as a young man, he told them that he wanted to go into politics. But he was swept up in an emerging progressive age that was directly fueled by America's rising middle class.

India is at the same point now.

Great quote today in NYT:

"We've been told since our childhoods, 'Politics is bad, don't get into politics.' But the point is that somebody has to clean it up. We can't just scold people."

PARTHO NAG, on a new activism among the middle class in India.

Politics considered bad. Somebody has to clean it up.

There's your progressive impulse in a nutshell.

Esquire's endorsement for "The Emily Updates"

November Issue, p. 34, just under the masthead where I'm listed as Contributing Editor:

THIS MONTH IN CONTRIBUTOR BOOKS

Over the next couple of months, one of Esquire's smartest contributing editors, Thomas P.M. Barnett, is releasing a serialized eBook, The Emily Updates: One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived. It's an eloquent and moving journal of the struggles Barnett's family faced when his first child was diagnosed with aggressively metastasized cancer. The five volumes (each about 50,000 words, released every three weeks) are $2.99 each and can be purchased through Amazon.com, the iTunes bookstore, and Barnes & Noble.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 6 (Flow of Security)

In this section I cover the symmetricization of the Long War, nuclear proliferation (and the lack thereof), how America shaped this world with its grand strategy, and who the key superpowers will be in the post-2030 landscape.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 5 (Flow of Food)

In this section of the brief I explore water and how it connects to grain-production centers of gravity, how climate change will impact the flow of food, how that flow will surpass the flow of energy in global importance in the future, and how the Western Hemisphere evolves as a result of its incredible water advantage.

Why You Should See "The Brief"

Fellow Readers,

I first stumbled across "The Brief" via YouTube five years ago, where I was introduced to Dr. Barnett’s theories, then his books and finally this blog, which instantly became part of my daily reading.

Tom became a major influence on how I think about the world, so when founding Wikistrat I reached out to Tom for advice. At that time I had no idea that he would one day join the team as Wikistrat’s Chief Analyst. He's been instrumental in helping us build our company ever since.

Last month I was finally able to watch Tom deliver The Brief live. The latest version centers on the Five Strategic Flows driving Globalization's advance in the coming decades. The presentation was actually constructed around material Tom penned within the Wikistrat model almost a year ago.

The verdict? A very different (and much better) experience than watching it on my computer screen: Aside from how fascinating Tom's insightful analysis is, The Brief is a work of performance art.

So, to anyone who's ever asked to see it live: I suggest you get down to CSIS offices tonight where Tom will be presenting one of the few briefs made open to the public. The event is being kindly hosted by our friends at YPFP (Young Professionals in Foreign Policy) at CSIS offices in downtown DC.

http://www.ypfp.org/civicrm/event/info?reset=1&id=1348

RSVP: events@ypfp.org

7pm at 1800 K St. NW.

Tom, myself and others from the Wikistrat team look forward to seeing you there.

Joel Zamel

CEO

Wikistrat

(Visit www.wikistrat.com to learn more about online community of strategic thinkers which serves as the web's first Massively Multiplayer Online Consultancy)

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 4 (Flow of Energy)

This section of the brief explores how urbanization and infrastructure development is shaping globalization, how Asia is the natural integrator of future globalization across the Gap, and how China's and America's interests overlap in the future evolution of Africa.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 3 (Flow of Money)

This section of the brief focuses on the rise of the global middle class, the evolution of national economies, why China won't "rule the world" for all that long, and what the future evolution of East Asia holds.

WPR's The New Rules: A Look Ahead at the Geography of Global Security

As part of a “big think” forecast project commissioned by an intelligence community sponsor, I’ve begun to think about the future geography of global security. As often with this kind of project, I find myself falling into list-making mode as I contemplate slides for the brief. So here are nine big structural issues that I think any such presentation must include . . .

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Fish story

Shift my work load from Friday to Saturday to take advantage of the fact that: 1) kids were home from school on Friday, and 2) spouse was heading to Terre Haute for Nona time.

So I put the canoe atop the Odyssey and pack up the gear. Vonne drops us off about 5 miles north of TH on the Wabash, and I steer with Jerry up front and the three girls in the middle (Vonne Mei paddling some). 

Beautiful fall day, but still most of the trees haven't turned along the river, so we might go back for one more trek before winter.

Anyway, very quiet on river, as we're the only people there, and we are, at this one point, just floating along the right side in shallow waters, taking a beverage break.

Then I put my oar into the water for a stroke and out jumps this big fish in response.  Maybe 18-20 inches and a solid 6 inches midrange in "height." In the instant I see it flying completely out of the water, my first thought is, that is one beautiful big fish.

Then the water surrounding us for about 15 yards on all sides erupts like a jaccuzzi and there are similarly sized fish jumping completely out of the water everywhere - maybe 50 or so. It is loud and chaotic and goes on for about 10 seconds as everybody seems to be frantic to escape our dreaded clutches. At several points I'm semi-deflecting fish about to jump into the boat (I know, later, I thought, hmmmm - dinner! But right then I was worried about us flipping this kayak-style canoe).

I have to tell you: I have canoed rivers for about 4 decades and I have never run into that one. We pretty much screamed throughout the whole thing, it was just so bizarre and unexpected on this otherwise uber-quiet journey.

But very cool. The fish were gorgeous and it was exciting to see all that action in such a short bit of time.

We talked about it for the rest of the journey down the Wabash.

Chart of the Day: Isn't a coincidence that the two biggest energy consumers . . .

 . . . happen to own the world's two largest reserves of shale gas?

Nice timing, huh?

The trick, of course, is the environmental impact.  American companies don't want to reveal their techniques, but the public needs to know so we can judge the impact and enforce the necessary precautions.

How that works and what volumes that ultimately allows us to extract is a big variable going forward.

With China, one assumes the niceties are not observed - until the riots start.

Time's Battleland: Why America should go slow on declaring victory in Libya - or making promises

[co-written with Michael S. Smith II of Kronos Advisory LLC]

The demise of Col Qaddafi, a despicable despot who should have met this or a worse fate sooner, will likely give rise to power grabs in Libya by groups whose agendas will often be anything other than what meets the eye. Despite many power holders' claims of “secularist” and democratic aims, Washington's policy makers would be wise to exercise great caution when assessing who should be trusted inside Libya. For, at present, it would appear Libya is taking on a political atmosphere that will carry a high Salafist quotient.

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 2 (Flow of People)

Part two of the Sept 2011 briefing to international military audience in Washington DC area. This section focused on the flow of people as captured in Wikistrat's GLOMOD (online, wiki-based "global model" of globalization), then moves on to the inevitabilities surrounding demographic aging, then explores how demography drives the Arab Spring, and then offers a regional evolution projection for the Middle East.

Esquire's Politics Blog: 5 Post-Qaddafi Realities for Libya and the Rest of Us

They came to bury Muammar Qaddafi, not capture him. After more than four decades of rule, he was still in the business of threatening and killing Libyans — a kind of start-up insurgency that would never go away. So if Qaddafi is indeed dead, then so much the better; the great bogeyman has been removed from the scene. Of course the world will (temporarily at least) lament the violence required for his departure from power, but as dictator-toppling exercises go, this one was about as good as it gets: First, the Arab Spring's power of example, then the rebels-turned-ruling-military-force driving him out from below, and finally an enabling from the human rights-minded powers that be.

But still: How did we really get here? And, perhaps more importantly, what now?

Read the entire post at Esquire's The Politics Blog.

Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 1 (Pentagon's New Map)

Delivered in Washington to an international military audience, September 2011.

We'll roll out the rest of the brief over the next couple of weeks. This section covers the introduction and my concepts regarding globalization's Core and Gap.

Speaking in DC on 26 Oct (Young Professionals in Foreign Policy) and it's open to the public

I’m speaking in Washington DC on October 26^th, to the members of Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP), a non-profit committed to fostering the next generation of foreign policy leaders.  I’ll be presenting on “The Future of Globalization,” using the latest version of “The Brief.”  Because the audience will be mostly in their 20s and 30s,I'll tailor my discussion slightly to emphasize the important skills and characteristics future foreign policy leaders will need to have. 

It’s an evening presentation and YPFP made it an open event, so if you’re in the DC area and haven’t seen “The Brief,” this is your chance (regardless of age).   7:00p.m. start at 1800 K St. NW.  Must RSVP with your name and affiliation to events@ypfp.org.

The President of YPFP, Josh Marcuse, invited me to speak after he met Joel Zamel and Dan Green in Washington earlier this year.  Joel, Dan, and Josh hit it off talking about how younger generations are drawn to the type of platform Wikistrat provides, and the need for new approaches in understanding the complexities of today’s geostrategic environment.   It's been a few months since my last round of college talks, so I’m looking forward to the questions a younger-than-average audience is likely to throw my way - especially on the subject of working in the biz.

Time's Battleland: Africom to work Lord's Resistance Army problem with Uganda

Ugandan forces (Reuters)

WAPO and NYT reporting over the weekend that the US will send around 100 armed advisers to help the Ugandan military work the stubborn problem of the Lord's Resistance Army, a beyond-its-expiration-date insurgency that's terrorized rural populations across four states for a couple of decades now. These guys really are the worst of the worst, engaging in atrocities galore, mass rape as a tool of terror, and the forced recruitment of child soldiers. They check every box on war crimes.

Read the entire post at Time's Battleland.

WPR's The New Rules: Debunking the Pentagon's Chinese Nationalism Hype

There exists within the Pentagon an unshakeable line of reasoning that says the Chinese military threat to the United States in Asia is profound and growing, that the most likely great-power war conflict will be over Taiwan or the South China Sea, and that the primary trigger will be China's burgeoning -- and uncontrollable -- nationalism. Objectively, China's military capabilities are certainly growing dramatically, but our conventional wisdom tends to break down in the structural plausibility of the scenarios. That's why the firm belief that rampant nationalism will trigger an eventual conflict becomes so crucial, especially when considered in combination with an additional line of speculation that emerged earlier this year, after the Chinese military trotted out a fifth-generation fighter jet the same day that former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Beijing for confidence-building talks: At the time, Gates suggested that maybe the People's Liberation Army was getting too big for its britches, and according to those who emphasize the Chinese threat, when the Chinese Communist Party eventually caves in the face of out-of-control popular nationalism, the PLA will step in and take matters into its own hands.

Read the entire column at World Politics Review.

Enterra's new website launched

Exciting stuff. Find it here.

Enterra continues to expand its pioneering work in supply-chain management, and, despite leaving the company as a part-time employee last summer, I continue to work with CEO Steve DeAngelis in a consulting capacity. So, suffice it to say, I couldn't be happier with how the company has matured in this way.

As the site proclaims, Enterra "is a cloud-based, intelligent supply chain technology company that solves complex supply chain execution problems of consumer products and retail organizations through real-time data sharing and analytic solutions that “Sense, Think, Learn and Act” to continually improve process execution and capitalize on new demand generation opportunities."