There exists within the Pentagon an unshakeable line of reasoning that says the Chinese military threat to the United States in Asia is profound and growing, that the most likely great-power war conflict will be over Taiwan or the South China Sea, and that the primary trigger will be China's burgeoning -- and uncontrollable -- nationalism. Objectively, China's military capabilities are certainly growing dramatically, but our conventional wisdom tends to break down in the structural plausibility of the scenarios. That's why the firm belief that rampant nationalism will trigger an eventual conflict becomes so crucial, especially when considered in combination with an additional line of speculation that emerged earlier this year, after the Chinese military trotted out a fifth-generation fighter jet the same day that former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Beijing for confidence-building talks: At the time, Gates suggested that maybe the People's Liberation Army was getting too big for its britches, and according to those who emphasize the Chinese threat, when the Chinese Communist Party eventually caves in the face of out-of-control popular nationalism, the PLA will step in and take matters into its own hands.
Read the entire column at World Politics Review.
Monday, October 17, 2011 at 9:00AM 
Reader Comments (2)
Great article.
While one might appreciate the need for the Pentagon to upgrade its weapon systems, the bellicose language towards China is not only dangerous but counter productive.
Even your closest Western allies and your allies in the Pacific don't read the China threat the way the Pentagon puts it. The Taiwanese are more worried about economic ties with the Mainland than anything else and an alliance of the South Koreans, the Japanese, the Australians, the Indonesians, the Malaysians and the Vietnamese against China is more than enough to keep Beijing in check, without calling on the US Navy.
And Beijing is not populated with lunatics.
It does the US no favours diplomatically, because except for Kim Jong Il, Castro and Putin (occasionally), the Pentagon and the US Congress are the only people seriously talking like the Cold War never ended. I guess that you don't want to keep such distinguished company and more importantly, the World has moved on since them.
In my neck of the woods in Africa, access to satellite TV can be obtained for as little $20 a month and Internet access for as little $3 a day. More of us than you imagine can access US foreign policy in our living rooms. One would think that people living in a Goldfish bowl (the US) would be more careful about what they say.
Africa is ground zero in the battle of influence between China and the US. True, the US has a great legacy (Peace Corps etc), but the US is unnecessarily shooting itself in the foot by sabre-rattling and not understanding that bellicose language impacts on its perception here.
The American brand has suffered a lot of damage over the last decade, it has become too identified with war (Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen) and the fear of war (Taiwan) and fear (terrorism and energy security hysterics, financial crisis) for its good. Much of this is unavoidable, but America will do well to reflect on the message it sends to the most interconnected and informed generation in history.
A frightened, hysterical America does not inspire confidence, no matter how indispensable it thinks it is.
Thank you, it is a wise and great article. Some Americans are deeply brain-washed or cold-war minded because long time negative and bias thoughts influenced by western media. These individuals are unable to cope with the rapid and efficient development of China and are feeling unconfident of their country’s well-being; additionally in their mind, they are unable to accept such a “poor” country both politically and economically. Yet they live everyday surrounded by things “Made in China” and reside in a country that owns China trillions of dollars; all they can do is complain about the situation: all are the Chinese fault. To cure their naivety, I advise them to go visit China, see the country for what it really is and how the party really works even China has more old problems left over because Mao's mistakes and new challenges during the setting up the Chinese new market...
Kai, Toronto