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Entries from September 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007

2:58PM

India's rising, too

OP-ED: 'Forget the Israel Lobby. The Hill's Next Big Player Is Made in India.' By Mira Kamdar, Washington Post, September 30, 2007; Page B03

I do believe this is coming: the rise of Indian influence inside this country. Part will be the money and power attached to all those immigrants, part will be attached to our economy's ties to India, and part will be attached simply to India's own emergence on the world stage.

But have no doubt: in the future we'll pretty much always be asking India what it thinks about things before we do anything. That's how important India will become.

That's why simplistic approaches on Iran have to be avoided. Iran is a key harbinger of our ties with a lot of important New Core pillars besides our usual considerations with the EU, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

2:55PM

Interesting to see this sort of thinking emerge on Kurdistan

Security may trump ethnicity in Kirkuk, By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, September 28, 2007

(Thanks: Tom Wade)

1:29PM

The Favre column was nicely timed

Pack goes 4-0 against the hated Vikes in the Hump.

And Bears drop to 1-3!

Very topsy turvy this year, which becomes the norm in this very tight league.

Gotta enjoy it while it lasts, which was the point of my column--with Brett.

5:45AM

Mutual funds look for bigger returns in the Gap

Keir Lauritzen wrote is to say:

Thought I would send over a short article from the Post on mutual fund
managers looking to "Frontier (Gap) markets" like Africa and Lebanon.

'Investing's New Frontiers: Hunting the Next Big Thing, Risk-Takers Turn to Developing Markets,' By Tomoeh Murakami Tse, Washington Post, September 30, 2007; Page F01

The opportunity to invest in these high risk markets by individual
investors can only increase the FDI inflow to these areas.

Tom says:

Well said.

5:38AM

Tom continues to try and take the blog more seriously, this time with Jon Alterman

Jon Alterman felt Tom's comments about him were way off base. He wrote:

Tom:
As you are a bold and unconventional thinker, let's do a thought experiment. Let's say, just as a counterfactual, that Barbara Slavin had space constraints in USA Today and didn't capture all of Ahmedinejad's comments. And let's say, as well, that those same constraints means she didn't capture all of mine. If so, your snarky comments could be way off base about an event you didn't attend and a set of comments you only gathered incompletely. A conventionally thinking person might think you owed an apology.

Tom's reply:

Jon,

I took all that for granted, having been subjected to the same effect many times and actually being forced to do the same in my own reporting (according to the victim, of course). To be more fair, I would have included such logical background flavoring in my post to give you the benefit of the doubt. My mistake.

It's that old rule that the press can only use what you give them. Slavin had a great point to make, and you got in the way (thankfully, by my measure).

So in the end, I am grateful that you asked the question and were nice enough to follow through with the logical analysis.

My snarkiness, as you put it (fair enough), like all feedback, reflects my sensitivites, not yours. I am sensitive to all the over-the-top slurs tossed against anyone who does not pre-emptively buy into the "second nuclear Holocaust" sale on Ahmadinejad ("So you support Israel being wiped off the map? Because, that's the only alternative to a military invasion!"), because, as I've argued, Israel deserves no more of a strategic "zero deductible" than Europe ever enjoyed in the Cold War under a far worse correlation of forces (for example, NATO didn't possess a huge nuclear advantage like Israel does), plus, as so many serious experts point out, Ahmadinejad ain't the "decider" on that one. Beyond those two simple points, there is a host of evidence that says Iran's leadership is hardly suicidal and has consistently demonstrated a serious understanding of what they can--and cannot--get away with when they tug on Superman's cape through terror proxies. To admit that, of course, makes me the Cold War equivalent of a "pinko" in this argument.

So I admit to teeing off on you a bit in the post. Nothing personal whatsoever. Would have done it to anyone so nailed in the piece (I assume your feedback to Slavin was stronger).

Clearly I have offended you in that manner, and for that I do apologize. If it had happened to me, I would feel a bit used by the whole process, so I understand your frustration and would therefore value your good opinion of me more than the snarky bit.

So again, sorry for offending and best to you,

Tom

5:34AM

Change up at C-SPAN

One of Tom's readers wrote in to say the C-SPAN links were defunct, and he was right. I have changed The Brief and Recordings pages to reflect the new information. Check out some of the videos that are available for free. And, if you'd rather have 'em on DVD, go nuts ;-)

3:33AM

This week's column

Brett Favre -- a Packer fan's appreciation

Amidst the NFL's ongoing melodrama of dogfights and bar fights and underhanded cheating, let's take a moment to thank Brett Favre for everything he's done for the game since stepping onto Lambeau Field in 1992. As a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan, my appreciation for this unique quarterback extends far beyond the statistics to the very character of the man himself.

I've coached hundreds of kids in six sports spread across too many seasons to remember, and each time we take the field I tell them, "Enjoy this moment and revel in your ability to play." No player in NFL history has met that challenge better than Brett Favre, whose stunning record of 260 consecutive starts (including playoffs) at quarterback stands testament to his personal resilience and intense love for the game.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

3:04AM

The other Tom's Sunday column

9/11 Is Over, By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, New York TimesSeptember 30, 2007

The coming realignment indeed.

This is natural and right: we recognize not only our fears but our hopes, not only our vulnerabilities but our strengths, not only our old enemies but our new allies.

We simple rebalance, the System Perturbation completed.

We have yet to be truly led by those who truly see the world for what it is.

(Thanks: Dan Hare)

6:12AM

Funny how that works

U.S. Urges China to Help Curb Violence in Burma, Prepare for Transition, By Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post, September 29, 2007; Page A12

Yet again, see how, whenever we deal with problem state, who ends up being a strategic partner.

3:45AM

Our personification obsession with Iran

MEMO FROM TEHRAN: "U.S. Focus on Ahmadinejad Puzzles Iranians," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 24 September 2007, p. A4.

Three good quotes:

Political analysts here say they are surprised at the degree to which the West focuses on their president, saying that it reflects a general misunderstanding of their system.

Unlike in the United States, in Iran the president is not the head of state nor commander in chief.

And:

"Ahmadinejad is a phenomenon," said Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice president under the more moderate administration of Mohammad Khatami. "On a religious level he is much more of a hard-liner than the traditional hard-liners. But on a political level, he does not have the support of the hard-liners."

And:

Mr. Ahmadinejad's power stems not from his office per se, but from the refusal of his patron, Ayatollah Khamenei, and some hardline leaders, to move beyond Iran's revolutionary identity, which makes full relations with the West impossible. There are plenty of conservatives and hard-liners who take a more pragmatic view, wanting to retain "revolutionary values," while integrating Iran with the world, at least economically. But they are not driving the agenda these days, and while that could change, it will not be the president who makes that call.

So we elevate this guy despite the fact that he is "increasingly isolated politically at home because of his go-it-alone style and ineffective economic policies."

1:41PM

The weight of the SysAdmin

'Why We're Winning Now in Iraq: Anbar's citizens needed protection before they would give their "hearts and minds,"' BY FREDERICK W. KAGAN, Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

The SysAdmin is not trigger-puller heavy nor munitions heavy, it is personal connectivity and presence heavy.

(Thanks: Tom Wade)

1:38PM

Rules of Blackwater

'Blackwater Faced Bedlam, Embassy Finds: 'First Blush' Report Raises New Questions on Shooting,' By Steve Fainaru and Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, September 28, 2007; Page A01

The Blackwater story, the more it comes out, sounds like a private security company version of that Samuel Jackson movie of a while back--"Rules of Engagement."

11:17AM

True Story

Last time my hairdresser Bernice gives me a #2 razor cut on top and #1 on the side, sort of a classic crew cut that's very short.

This time (today) I tell her to go #3 on top, so it's a bit longer. She does so and then goes over my sides again with the #1 to smooth it out.

Then the phone rings and her brother's talking from the hospital. Distracted, she continues with the far shorter #1 to cut a nice deep row down the middle of my head--sort of a reverse mohawk.

"Did you just ...?" I queried.

"I can't believe I just did that!" replies Bernice.

I say, "Relax, I screwed up at work this week plenty and my people still like me."

Suffice it to say, I'm looking very high and very tight right now.

8:28AM

Nice conversation with John Robb

Spoke with John on the phone for about 90, after deciding it made sense we should connect on that level.

Very enjoyable conversation.

The blogosphere thrives on a certain perceived competitiveness, and that dynamic is certainly there (Steve DeAngelis and I, for example, are highly competitive and highly collaborative at the same time, which I simply love) between any two thinkers, but the overlaps and similarities are always so much more vast than the differences, if for no other reason than we simply enjoy working the puzzle as much or more than finding the answer--much less getting credit for it.

The older I get, the more fascinated I become with the effect than with the appearance of contribution. It's more interesting and its more effective to focus on getting it done rather than getting the perceived win. Money is nice, appreciation is nice, but none of that answers your personal mail at the end of the life.

So connecting with similar people on similar journeys becomes a good in its own right. Frankly, that's my gut instinct on China and the U.S., as far out as that appears to many people today.

Connecting with John is like connecting with Art Cebrowski: no conversions are desired. I'm least interested in finding another me; that's why I have children. I'm interested in finding the variations on a theme.

One thing I find interesting: a lot of people like John, Steve and I seem to share this one weird physical characteristic--a slight lisp and a bit of a stuttery delivery at the margins. It's very subtle. I've had mine pointed out to me on the basis of C-SPAN videos. Of course, no one's perfect on any scale, but I can't help wondering if that physical manifestation naturally goes hand in hand with the sort of thinking we engage in, like we're biologically cross-wired in many ways, "suffering" cross dominances and systematic asymmetries, and that conquering or balancing all those imbalances is part and parcel a dynamic that both informs and reflects the way we think--like music that overwhelms the speakers.

I'm not interested in changing myself at this point in life, perhaps that's why I didn't bother noticing those traits in me until now. I like how it humanizes my delivery.

Plus, the halting (when I speak normally vice broadcast mode, where I conquer and bury the tendency) way I speak reflects that ADHD-like tendency of good horizontal thinkers to constantly get distracted, circle back, loop around and so forth. Of course, you can make this tendency endearing in its own way by being funny. Mark Warren, an acute horizontal thinker, does so to the point where I like to refer to him as "the Texas Hugh Grant."

So the faults don't mean you can't be a smooth speaker--just the opposite I would argue from my own personal experience and observation (though I've never tried the stones in the mouth like Cicero, a couple of Fisherman's Friends is a decent substitute, although I find that many people assume I doing chew). That may sound counterintuitive: Are such people born or made? I think they're born and they're made.

A simple stab. There's a school of psychology that says what you are is essentially a conquering of your physical limitations or collection of abnormalities (which we all have in various mixes). I suppose it's a celebration of diversity in some way, naturally Darwinian. But I do honestly think there's something to it.

Steve and I often joke that Enterra's staff is like the "island of misfit toys." I suppose many start-ups perceive their ranks in this way: a weird mix of strange people that naturally gravitate to create something new and different--very new economy, in that Kevin Kelly sort of way.

I actually counsel my kids on that a lot: that which makes them "odd" today is that which will make them very fulfilled and appreciated later on--if they can figure out the path. It's almost like the bit about child actors getting ugly when they get older: your having that "right" face for kid acting is often a predictor for having the wrong one later on. I felt I had the wrong mind to be a kid, hence I was perceived as precocious. I've only felt like I fit into this world over the last decade or so, as the rest felt like a "wrong" that needed correction.

That may be a very universal feeling of 40-somethings (John, Steve and I are all roughly the same age), and there's a lot of psychology that supports that notion.

Still, I think there is a biological quotient to why we are the way we are. I don't think my kids, given my choice of spouse, actually have that much choice regarding what they will excel at. We can argue nature versus nurture, and certainly I have the grand experiment staring me in the face with Vonne Mei Ling Barnett, who's already surprising me.

But I will say, even there, that I suspect more biological similarity than dissimilarity (perhaps every doting father's natural inclination--another assist from evolution). The Chinese went to great lengths on picking the "right" baby for the "right" family, meaning a sense of "this type" for "this type." Why? They're just into that, and I was impressed about the effort they made in this regard. To me, it was a systematically loving gesture that I respect deeply.

Anyway, I'm clearly in a contemplative mood, which is a very good sign regarding my interaction with John. I always say that there are two types of people in this world: the ones who make you feel happier and smarter after you've interacted with them, and the ones who make you feel worse on both scales.

You want to get ahead?

Realize the difference.

Where does this interaction go?

Ah, the things people worry about ....

3:46AM

Biden's been right all along

OP-ED: A plan for a stable Iraq, By JOE BIDEN, The State (SC), Sep. 25, 2007

Decent, reasonable argument for recognizing the facts on the ground and not engaging in wish fulfillment by pretending that flipping the Sunnis against al-Qaeda means anything more than the Sunnis looking out for themselves.

And from a guy who's been right all along on the subject.

3:43AM

Explaining Enterra

POST: Mobile Phone Software and Standards

For those of you struggling to figure out what exactly it is Enterra does (a constant challenge we face in interacting with people, who, like the three blind guys with the elephant, always want to toss us into various recognizable categories), this post from Steve is another brick in that wall of analogies. metaphors, etc. that we employ.

Is it a bitch to market something so complex to explain? No, actually, it's a great mental exercise.

3:17PM

Cool idea is right

Dan Hare wrote in with this pdf:

Emergency Video Summit Transcript: The Great Dollar Panic of 2007-2008

And this idea:

Create a 'sister school' social networking program via internet between youth in Kurdistan and America to act as something of a precursor of cultural exchange program.

Same concept could be done with Chamber of Commerce's or other B2B connections via same technology.

Tom says:

Very cool idea.

Why not raise a generation of nation builder-uppers?

3:16PM

No, wait a minute! I just read the sea-level portion in Cool It!

And I come away even more impressed by Lomborg.

He is truly awesome as an environmental grand strategist.

Why?

Like that other, most-brilliant-grand-strategist-of-the-21st-century (Keynes), he actually incorporates economics!

I gotta get Vonne to read this book.

3:01PM

Who ya calling Hitler?

ARTICLE: "Ahmadinejad urged to take more care in what he says," by Barbara Slavin, USA Today, 27 September 2007, p. 7A.

I know, the guy's completely insane because he believes his messiah could return any day, smite all his enemies and elevate the faithful to eternal good life and happiness.

Not that there's anything wrong with that!

(Just in case my Mom's reading, I don't want to come off sounding un-Christian--regarding my own personal "irrational" belief system, that is.)

Here's the beef:

Told that many Americans liken him to Hitler, Ahmadinejad said he viewed "Hitler's role as extremely negative. The war he planned claimed over 60 million lives and Hitler's image to us is despicable. I don't look like him, and my culture has nothing to do with him.

Culture? No. But regime? More of an argument there, although the Mussolini comparison is far more apt.

But I digress, please continue reading:

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, made the Hitler remark and said he was a bit surprised by the response.

"He showed a depth of thinking about World War II that he hasn't before," Alterman said. "The conventional thinking is that he's on another planet on these issues.".

Ouch! Who shot themselves in the foot there? The nutcase dictator or the "conventionally thinking" think tanker?

Hell, maybe Ahmadinejad just caught an episode of Burns' documentary the night before on PBS..

As for the Holocaust, Ahmadinejad called it a "reality of our time, a history that occurred."

No worries. When he wants to get us all lathered up again, expect Andrewdiceclayminejad to strike again!

Gary Sick, a nuke proliferation expert (vice Iranian or political leadership expert or psychologist, but bear with me here) says Ahmadinejad clearly digs attention ("He basks in it.").

You think?

But Sick fears none of this pushback will dissuade Ahmadinejad to abandon confrontation with America:

"I think he's a very shallow man with little introspection," Sick said. "While he got an earful, it just rolls right off him."

Bit of a hard-believing evangelical endtimer who's shallow, doesn't question himself or his actions, and ignores criticism.

In bipolar standoffs, I'd say Bush and Ahmadinejad are a match made in heaven--or hell.

I can go either way on this one.

But don't tell my Mom!

3:01PM

Lomborg's new book on climate change

Lomborg's Cool It! should be read by everyone who's stressing on global warming and fantasizing about Mad Max-like post-apocalypses where mating pairs roam Antarctica in a Hobbesian existence.

Sounds kinky/kool, doesn't it?

Some basic so far, and I'm not even to the sea levels part (why spoil your best suspense?):

--> Polar bears are not declining.

--> Glaciers are climate artifacts, not sacred treasures.

--> The average developing country's income will rise 12 fold by 2100, according to the UN, so the resources will be vast for adaptation.

--> Cold kills far more each year than heat, to which humans adapt--throughout history--far better, so global warming will save far more lives than it kills.

--> Finally, humans have always prospered when it's gotten warmer and suffered when it's gotten colder, and these rises are not unprecedented: worst-case rises have already been successfully managed in large "heat island" cities over the past century and even in these "labs," cold kills more each year than heat!

I'm not running any serious real-world numbers here, which Lomborg supplies in abundance, and his Copenhagen Consensus stuff of prioritizing many other ills over global warming remains powerful and brilliant stuff ... even if our NewRuleSets.Project beat him by a couple of years using exactly the same techniques and yielding exactly the same results!

You think he ever visited my Naval War College site?

Okay, I'm getting verklempft ... Talk amongst yourselves ....