The Pack game

Went up to Milwaukee Saturday with Kevin after he ran a XC meet and finished in the ribbons for the third time in three meets (11th, then 10th, and this time 7th). Impressive as he's running with kids his age and one grade above.

We did 5 hours at Six Flags Great America on the way to Beer City, where we crashed at a nice Art Deco-style downtown hotel.

Up early Sunday we dash with all the rest of Milwaukee to the game, and hit the Packer Pro shop. I blow almost $400 on gear for family members so we'll all have the necessary look for coming games (Vonne and I will see two more games this year and all six of us will go to one as well). That store is like pure impulse buying for me, and my kids have caught on.

The game was great, as was the weather. I tried to not yell too much as I already strained my voice head coaching the XC team at the meet (coach couldn't come, so I got to hand Kev his ribbon, which was cool) and bought funky cool Packer receiver gloves to make sure I didn't beat my hands to a pulp (I'm a big clapper).

Bolts drove so well early on, it was scary.

Franks drops a TD in our zone in 1Q, so we settle for 3 after their first TD. Then we reel off 10 (Favre TD 418), only to let Chargers march down field for TD just before half.

When Bolts ground out another TD to start second half, I got a bit depressed.

But then Favre took over with 419 and 420 (with two close, inches-away other potential TD tosses killing another drive).

Barnett puts in "the dagger" with INT and we are rejoicing.

I've now seen Favre throw 20 in person at Lambeau, plus his 3rd 300-yard and 3rd 4th Q comeback drive.

First QB ever to win 150 games.

Was great to see him tie record, but favre better to see Pack go 3-0.

Balancing the Leviathan and SysAdmin

POST: Will the Petraeus Strategy Be the Last?

DISCUSSION: Eating Soup with a Spoon

Worth perusing.

The balance question between Leviathan and SysAdmin is always going to be crucial and tricky. Reasonable discussions on the subject are relatively rare.

The Secret of Kurdistan

ARTICLE: Kurd capital a respite from horrors, By Christopher Torchia, Associated Press, September 23rd, 2007

More and more of the world waking up to the "secret" that is Kurdistan. As this continues, Kurdistan will logically attract more trouble, but the Kurds are ready for it and getting more ready by the day.

It's that strategic incentive structure that makes Kurdistan a perfect place for Enterra to template Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢.

Marines as SysAdmin

OP-ED: Marines In Search of A Mission, By George F. Will, Washington Post, September 23, 2007; Page B07

Will is certainly on a military junket!

Now up, the Marines.

The reality is that the Marines have always been as much or more about elective interventions than required ones. So whatever the era presents, that's what they do.

Now it's clearly the sort of SysAdmin stuff I like to focus on. You can dream of big wars, but in those scenarios it'll be airpower that dominates.

Still, I like to keep my Marines Marines, which is why I describe them as the kinetics within the SysAdmin, to be logically augmented in all the "everything else" by civilians and non-combat focused specialty units.

Intell: slowest and dumbest of all

When the CIA Got It Right, By David Ignatius, Washington Post, September 23, 2007; Page B07

Nice piece by Ignatius on the history of the CIA. He brings an unideological perspective, which is quite refreshing.

Me? I like my politicians slower and dumber than my businessmen. I see safety and prosperity in that.

Beyond that, I want my military slower and dumber than my politicians. I see the preservation of freedom in that.

And beyond all that, I want my intell agencies slower and dumber than my military. I prefer my sins to be of commission rather than omission, and a better CIA would be more trouble than it's worth.

My two cents.

Demographic regime change

OP-ED: Bringing Generation Y Into the Fold, By Stephen Barr, Washington Post, September 24, 2007; Page D01

Worth tracking, because it's not just the entry of Gen Y or Echo Boomers that we're watching here, but the historic retirement wave of Boomers in the federal government. This is a demographic regime change of the highest order.

Hmmm, may have to do a column on that one (Vonne, pls remind me).

As for this week's column? After yesterday at Lambeau, I think some hero worshiping is in order.

If the exit strategy is jobs...

POST: Unreasoned Fear of Muslim Investment Again Raises it Ugly Head

Good post by Steve on disaggregating the stereotypes on Islam, especially in the business realm.

Remember, if the exit strategy is jobs, then FDI--in both directions--is the most important weapon of connectivity.

Incredible, shrinking strategic visions

OP-ED: The Candidates' World of Myopia, By Jim Hoagland, Washington PostSeptember 23, 2007; Page B07

Nice analysis by Hoagland showing how Iraq has not only consumed the painfully premature Bush post-presidency but is likewise shrinking--along with fellow traveler Iran--the strategic visions of the presidential candidates.

A lot of world out there.

(Last week's) Tom around the web

+ Expat Nomad linked the TED video.
+ So did Those Awake.

+ Curtis is reprinting 5GW posts and putting them in a timeline to create a central repository. He's got a number of Tom's posts (but I'm not going to link them all).
+ Dreaming 5GW linked Dispensational premillennialism.
+ And linked 5GW v. 1+2+3=4.

+ beowulf also linked Dispensational premillennialism.
+ et alli. linked The nature of my frustration on Iraq revolves around the opportunity that Petraeus represents.
+ News Blogg reviewed the TED video.
+ The Conservative Voice mentioned PNM
+ Spread the Word: Iraq-Nam linked last week's column.
+ So did ZenPundit.
+ House of War linked Decent, unsophisticated Obama piece on Iran.
+ Cobb evoked Tom on Haiti.
+ The Ubiquitous Flying Blue Blog mentioned the Rumsfeld profile.
+ Comments From Left Field called The Americans Have Landed 'a must read'.
+ Hot soup in my eye wonders how much Tom's work influenced the new COIN.

+ Middle Class Political Thought and Commentary linked The dream of Iraqs is alive and multiplying.
+ So did I, Hans
+ WhirledView connected Tom's thought and Giuliani's foreign policy.
+ PurpleSlog linked Bhutto: hope for Pakistan (and humorously commented that, if that's the case, Pakistan is SOL).
+ Dans Blog linked the September 9th column.
+ MountainRunner linked China's "soft power" only generates "hard dangers" and "soft opposition".
+ The Korea Times has started picking up Tom's columns: Lasting Peace Provided by Nukes and War in Iraq Ends Up Costing US.
+ Al Alborn references Tom in his own 'The rule set for war'.
+ The Korsakov Files linked Peter's talk.

Game day

On Oneida, a block from Lambeau.

Pray for our run D.

This week's column

Tom's reply to farhad's comment intros this week's column:

Farhad,

You need to disaggregate: there is the argument regarding consequences and utility of striking Iran.and there is the sales job offered as rationale for those strikes.

I have been very clear and consistent on the former. Here, I express my sense of how this administration may well sell such strikes.

You want to distinguish between the two, especially in a republic like the U.S.

The column:

Reconstructing the Iraq reconstruction

America's debate about bringing our troops home from Iraq is largely consummated -- at least for this presidency. Thanks to Army Gen. David Petraeus' reasonably successful appearances before Congress earlier this month, that rhetorical argument has shifted to the presidential campaign. The actual details of our long-term drawdown will be hashed out within the Pentagon and Central Command as both struggle with the challenges of troop burnout and threatened military strikes against Iran.

As for Iraq itself, we collectively enter a strategic space where it's possible to chart real progress across three mini-states surrounding a dysfunctional capital. Now, instead of trying to rebuild Iraq as a unified whole, we face the more manageable challenges of connecting the Kurds, Sunni and Shia -- in that order -- to the global economy. It'll be mostly oil, but at least they've all got some.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Why China does not delight in any U.S. failures in the Mideast

ARTICLE: "Energy Prices Put China In a Jam: Inflation Limits Options on Controls," by Andrew Batson, Wall Street Journal, 21 September 2007, p. D8.

Much of the current high prices in energy are rising demand-driven, but clearly any security issues put a short-term premium on price, so no, China takes no delight in U.S. failures in Iraq, nor would it relish military strikes against Iran.

So long as energy prices rise, you got a key inflation driver fueling Beijing's fears of civil unrest.

China desperately needs a Middle East that's opening up to globalization and especially its FDI flows, because those flows will determine the region's future ability to meet China's skyrocketing energy demands, with Iran as an obviously key player.

Apocalypse really soon

OP-ED: "Middle East Volcano," by Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, 21 September 2007, p. A19.

Krauthammer is now officially jacked about a looming showdown with Iran.

Ahmadinejad, who has no control over Iran's nuclear program or its military, is--as always--described as "apocalyptic."

Funny how we always feared the atheist Sovs and Chinese regarding use of nukes (now, of course, we rewrite or forget our history and remember them as coolly rational types with no such designs) and now we freak over prospect of Shia bomb even though we've quietly lived for many years with a Sunni bomb in a state full of radicals and which now serves as al-Qaeda's global headquarters and has a scary history of proliferation (Pakistan). Certainly, OBL's made some wild verbal threats in his day, and pulled off some serious stuff, so clearly we should freak every time Ahmadinejad shoots off his mouth, even though he's likely out of power just a few months after Bush and Cheney.

But these are meaningless side points. By all means, no one should stand in the way of the officially denied bandwagon.

More comparisons to Hitler, I say. Everyone knows we're dead serious whenever we trot out Hitler analogies.

Also filed under Mideast financial connectivity

ARTICLE: "Government of Abu Dhabi Buys Stake in Carlyle," by Thomas Heath, Washington , 21 September 2007, p. D1.

Only other outsider ever previously allowed into stake equity with Carlyle was California Public Employees Retirement System, another nefarious sovereign wealth fund!

The operational needs of the SysAdmin slowly and painfully trump the Leviathan's plans--if angels appear

ARTICLE: "Two senators tell Marines to ease off whistle-blower: Letter alleges retaliation against adviser after revelation of MRAP delay in Iraq," by Tom Vanden Brook, USA Today, 21 September 2007, p. 5A.

Franz Gayl is sci adviser to the deputy commandant. He goes to Iraq for period last year (I believe) and comes back to write up letter that gets wide distro. The letter highlights the obstacles Marines in the field face back home with Quantico/Pentagon force structure offices in their quest to rapidly field needed stuff like the MRAP trucks that better protect against roadside bombs and a non-lethal laser used to blind drivers of trucks without having to shoot them up (if perceived hostile).

What happens is this: Marines in the field try to fund stuff using ops funds when they get mad at how slow their requests for new stuff are moving back in the bureaucracy. The bureaucracy then retaliates, believing the field Marines are buying stuff against the rules and usurping their authority, plus messing up their finely laid planes for long-term purchases (possibly making those funds vulnerable to the "enemy" otherwise known as other services programs).

If you speak out too much on this, like Gayl did, you get in trouble.

Kudos to senators Bond and Biden on this score: they're pushing for the rapid fielding and to protect Gayl.

A+ for Bush (if just signaling)

ARTICLE: 'Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran,' By Dr. Jack Wheeler, Behind The Lines, Wednesday, 19 September 2007

Again, if just signaling, an A-plus for Bush, but only assuming he's lining up both kinetic and non-kinetic endgames (to include the non-kinetic follow-up to any kinetics, because failure there would be beyond all excuse).

(Thanks: Dan Hare)

Kaplan comes full circle

OP-ED: Lost at Sea, By ROBERT D. KAPLAN, New York Times, September 21, 2007

I would say Kaplan has come full circle from his "How We Will Fight China" piece for Atlantic.

This is greatly welcomed given his high profile among the military.

Patience, my friends, is the grand strategist's most important character trait.

(Thanks: Lexington Green)

Stop waiting on that bride and your grandpa

ARTICLE: NATO Rapid Reaction Force to Be Eliminated, Spiegel Online, September 20, 2007

No big surprise. Ambition there but not the will. We need to stop waiting on this bride, cause this marriage, WRT shrinking the Gap, ain't gonna happen.

In a frontier age, you go with frontier-integrating players, not your grandpa.

(Thanks: Matthew Garcia)

Terrorists can't hold a candle to our unintended consequences

POST: Complexity and Resilience

I was expecting Steve to blog this one the minute I read the headline, so I passed.

This post fulfills my expectations and re-iterates an old point for me on terrorists: it's fun to cast them--rather fantastically--as the new masters of our complex universe, but evolutionary-wise, they fall primarily into the "useful idiot" class (challenging in their ways, but hardly at the head of the class, where our own unintended consequences reign supreme on a day-to-day basis).

Bush has done moved on--quite deftly

ARTICLE: "A Mission of Mystery: Israel sends Iran a signal with a stealth raid into Syria," by Dan Ephron and Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, 24 September 2007, p. 40.

ARTICLE: "Israel Calls Gaza 'Hostile' In Step to Tighten Penalties," by Steven Erlanger and Helene Cooper, New York Times, 20 September 2007, p. A12.

ARTICLE: "Israel, U.S. Shared Data On Suspected Nuclear Site: Bush Was Told of North Korean Presence in Syria, Sources Told," by Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright, Washington Post, 21 September 2007, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "MoveOn Unmoved By Furor Over Ad Targeting Petraeus," by Perry Bacon, Jr., Washington Post, 21 September 2007, p. A1.

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert, we are told by a well-placed Israeli source, "asked President Bush for assurances that if economic and political sanctions failed to get Iran to shut down its nuclear facilities, Bush would order the U.S. military to destroy them before he leaves office."

The same source says Bush has yet to provide such assurances, and that the Israelis are convinced Iran reaches a point of no return sometime next year. U.S. intell agencies say it will take a while longer to make weaponization real--maybe as long as 8 years but probably a lot faster.

The Newsweek piece ends by saying if Israel decides to do it, there will never be a more supportive U.S. presidency than the current one, so their incentives to get it done before Bush leaves office are many. With Bush's surge now focused on the Shia, such a preventive war could easily suck in the Americans. Indeed, it would be hard for us not to get involved on some level.

But with Israel teeing up the Gaza Strip, there's also the temptation to see the Syria strike (Do they have Kim's nukes? It's as good a story as any and really, does the story matter?) as a bit of clearing the deck regarding potential troublemakers (state-based, at least) if Israel decides to do something directly against Hamas as part of its package of coming closer to dealing significantly with Fatah.

And there we backtrack a bit to Sarah Kass' scenario from a while back: begin the Iranian roll-back by taking down Hamas, squeezing Syria, and settling Iraq just enough that Iran's regional prospects look hemmed in enough so that any direct talks with them on nukes proceeds from a position of greater strength.

Anyway, it's nice to dream.

I think Israel's going to get busy, one way or another.

Today's WaPo extends the story back further, to great effect. Olmert's asking way back when because the U.S. and Israel have been sharing this info for months, it is now made public. Israel, NBC says this morning on TV, was given the green light to attack a while ago.

So it's very interesting that Israel decides--all by its lonesome--to hit Syria right when Petraeus is testifying.

You package that steadily over time, along with the manufactured furor over MoveOn (My, I look over American history and this has to be the first time a general was ever impugned during war! Really, the general's a big boy so why can't the Senate be as well?), and you've given MoveOn exactly what they asked for--you've moved on to looming military strikes against Syria (box checked) and Iran (box to be checked).

The indisputable scenario (meaning the one you'll be presented as unchallengeable): Israel does what it has to do with Syria (perhaps after Syria et. al ramp up following Israel's decision to clear Gaza) and the U.S. is forced to attack Iran to stop its entry into the expanding war.

Israel has to clear Hamas and/or Syria due to the immediate threats (nuclear, in Syria's case) and America has to defend Israel by going to war with Iran (both the immediate threat to our troops in Iraq and the danger of nukes).

If you think selling the surge was easy, this will be ... how to put this ... a slam dunk!

Seriously. This is a brilliant package.