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Monthly Archives

Entries from September 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007

3:01PM

On climate change politics: shades of the "twenty with the money"--not that there's anything wrong with that!

ARTICLE: "Bush gets set for climate-change meetings apart from U.N.," by David Jackson, USA Today, 27 September 2007, p. 6A.

Bush holds his own counter-UN climate change confab with officials from 16 most developed nations, plus New Core India and China.

They will begin outlining a plan to develop goals that could be incorporated into the U.N.'s work, Rice said.

Let's be more blunt: the 16 biggest to include India and China?

That would be the U.N.'s logical agenda!

No surprise. That's why my A-to-Z rule set is predicated that when you get the top 20 or so economies together on some issue, that's a resource quorum.

When Bush goes it alone, he's being dumb, but when he does this, he's being smart and realistic.

Bit late, but give the man credit.

2:49PM

Calling Tyler Durden in Tampa

Please surface ASAP. Jenn calling on my behalf.

Short fuze.

8:36AM

The Chinese translation of PNM seems to be working

Got an invite to speak at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua U. in Beijing. My guess is that it would be part of their just-launched "Global Vision Lectures" series.

The institute's director wrote a forward to the Chinese edition of PNM (missed that in my careful perusals of the characters involved . . ., although, I must say, "Thomas P.M. Barnett" looks beautiful in Chinese). In the invitation to speak, he said, "This book has attracted wide attention from strategists and IR scholars in China."

Good to hear. Time now to sell the Chinese edition of Blueprint for Action.

Naturally, I said yes.

8:22AM

The scary thing about homeland security

Within the USG, some have the responsibility for detection of nukes and chem/bio at home, others for away, still others for bits and pieces in the chain, and some bits of the chain not really covered whatsoever.

With all that, no one in our universe can really answer the question, "Okay, now that we found it, what do we do next?"

This is why Steve DeAngelis and I feel so strongly about our pilot effort on ResilienceNet in the port of Philadelphia. Until some entity forces the issue, the government, left to its own devices, will not adequately answer this crucial question.

And yes, today I'm at Oak Ridge, a national lab that worries about this sort of thing and seeks aggressively to work the issue. Bit of a "herding the cats" problem, but one that must be surmounted through public-private partnerships.

Why?

This country wasn't built by the government. It was built by American business. The government grew in response.

2:32PM

Steve on Tom in the WSJ

Steve covered the WSJ article that quotes Tom in Developing Third World Seen as Big Business.

4:45AM

Watching Ahmadinejad at the U.N.

Reminds me of how, every few years or so, America's entire civilization is almost brought down by some shock comic/show that has a ton of people up in arms.

They come, they go. We tend to dress them up with far more perceived power than they ever truly wield.

And when it's a savvy politician (which Ahmadinejad truly is) with a gift for inflammatory rhetoric, we lap up the propaganda, letting little men play our big nation for fools.

Because this dynamic is so encouraged by Israel and Saudi Arabia, it would seem we have a critical mass for whipping the American public--or just enough of it--into the requisite war frenzy. I am not naive about that dynamic. It's the way our republic works and always has. I supported it completely on Saddam, but that was because, as I wrote in the original Esquire article, that choice would force America to finally take strategic ownership of both the region and the Gap at large, and no matter how painful our first forays are, that decision had to be made eventually.

But now in, we have to play the board as we find it. Iran's rise and reach for the bomb are hardly surprising, nor is the Shia revival. Both must either be accommodated or we'll have to commit ourselves to Iran's takedown and remaking, and the truth is, we simply cannot extend ourselves that extra step in our current international isolation (thanks to Bush). You might not want to hear that, but there it is.

So we'll be forced to compromise, as will the Saudis and Israelis, or they'll simply be forced to live in more danger, like Europe was forced to do for a solid quarter century after WWII.

Why? Because Iran's takedown is simply too much for India, China and Russia to accept right now, especially with this administration. Our trust factor around this planet is incredibly low. Bush has spent his political capital and spent it badly.

Supposedly Bush's team advises leading presidential candidates on Iraq to make sure they don't box themselves in--just in case they win. In my opinion, those candidates should be mentoring Bush on Iran, so he doesn't do anything stupid that boxes them--and our nation--into strategic tensions with rising New Core powers that we do not need.

Meanwhile, those of us who see the soft kill option working best on Iran make our own efforts in that direction. When you think effects-based operations, your possible list of weapons expands dramatically.

4:45AM

India‚Äôs not-so-bottomless-well for outsourcing

ARTICLE: “Outsourcing Works So Well, India Is Sending Jobs Abroad,” by Anand Giridharadas, New York Times, 25 September 2007, p. A1.

This out-outsourcing phenomenon is less about finding the necessary bodies in India (although, yes Virginia, there is such a thing as rising wages in India) than it is about these Indian companies ambition to go global.

The quote from Ashok Vemuri, SVP from Infosys:

… the future of outsourcing is “to take the work from any part of the world and do it in any part of the world.”

Sounds like he’s read the bible of Sam Palmisano, IBM’s CEO.

So new back-back offices in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Guadalajara, the Czech Republic, Thailand and cheap-labor areas in the U.S. and China. Hell, Americans are brought into India to boost the company’s diversity program!

Nice.

The killer connectivity dynamic:

Infosys says its outsourcing experience in India has taught it to carve up a project, apportion each slice to suitable workers, double-check quality and then export a final, reassembled product to clients. The company argues it can clone its Indian back offices in other nations and groom Chinese, Mexican or Czech employees to be more productive than local outsourcing companies could make them.

“We have pioneered this movement of work,” Mr. [S.] Gopalakrishnan [CEO] said. “These new countries don’t have experience and maturity in doing that, and that’s what we’re taking to these countries.”

Experience, maturity, connectivity . . . India really arrives with this sort of stuff: not just taking in work but spreading work.

Very impressive and very powerful, and indicative of what I’ve argued consistently since Blueprint for Action: the New Core sets the new rules. Or as I like to say now, “The last in, the next begins.” The most recent globalizers are the countries and economies that will drive its next-stage expansion.

India will be huge in this regard, along with China. This article describes serious frontier-integration activity. You just gotta see how many frontiers are actually out there. Infosys’s training is described by Americans who’ve taken it as “the equivalent of a bachelor’s in computer science in six months.”

Extending nets, outsourcing to the bottom of the pyramid--wherever it is found--and exporting education . . . again, there is very powerful stuff to be located within the New Core's rise.

You either access this phenomenon or you get left behind.

3:57AM

America‚Äôs emerging ‚Äúbig tent Islam‚Äù

COVER STORY: “Tension between Sunnis, Shiites emerging in USA,” by Cathy Lynn Grossman, USA Today, 25 September 2007, p. 1A.

ARTICLE: “Suicide bomber attacks meeting of Shiites, Sunnis,” by Associated Press, USA Today, 25 September 2007, p. 9A.

Only natural that things get more tense over here between Shia and Sunni. But our country is a rare place for Islam, an environment where Shia and Sunni regularly and unremarkably pray together in the same mosques, something that stuns Muslim journalists when they cover our scene.

As one journalist from India recently put it:

“It is something we never see at home. They want to kill each other everywhere except in the USA.”

You think he really said “USA,” or did the paper tweak that quote?

But yeah, you’re going to see splintering and fracturing of Muslims here in the States, because the environment simply allows it, which is why the spread of the concept of “big tent Islam” is so crucial and fascinating to watch.

We’ve seen this with Christianity in the past (indeed, Stephen Prothero argues that the rise of non-denominational Christianity in the USA [damn, now they’ve got me doing it!] was fed by, and fed into, the rise of public schooling in the early 1800s) and with Judaism (we’re all one big happy, Judeo-Christian family, are we not?) and with Buddhism (which is being secularized beyond recognition in some quarters) and with Hinduism (just check out yoga at the YMCA).

And so it’s going to happen with Islam here in America: the religious “reformation” people are looking for will happen.

Read on:

At a time when rising numbers of American Protestants are attending non-denominational community churches and referring to themselves simply as Christians rather than Baptists, Methodists or Lutherans, a similar thing is happening among Muslims in the USA.

“It’s a whole new era,” says [Muslim sociologist Eboo] Patel. “The bulk of the American Muslim community is overwhelmingly young, under age 40. And they are experiencing a huge momentum toward ‘big-tent Islam.’”

“We don’t want to be defined by the classification of history and the Middle East. The Quran is our authority,” says Salim Al-Marayati, executive director of the Muslim Public Affairs Council. Al-Marayati, a Shiite married to a Sunni, expects to see 10,000 Muslims of all sects celebrate the Eid [feast at the end of Ramadan] with the Islamic Center of Southern California next month in Los Angeles.

He calls himself “Sushi,” the popular term for a combination of Sunni and Shiite. Once the glib nickname for the children of intermarried couples, it has become shorthand for Muslim who blur sectarian lines.

Gotta love “Sushi.” Yet another example of Japan’s successful cultural exports! Seriously. A term people choose for themselves because the word strikes them as cool.

None of this is to suggest that America grows less religious, because just the opposite is true. But don’t confuse rising religiosity (more faith and more practice) with rising religion (the institutions and hierarchies and sectarianism that come with them).

The rule set on religion gets looser in America even as people get more intense about it. It becomes more personalized and direct and about “the book.”

And it becomes non-denominational as a result.

Read Stephen Prothero’s history of faith in America in his Religious Literacy, and you’ll see the argument plain as day.

Yet another reason why I do not worry about losing any “Long War.” The outcome was never in doubt. Just our belief in ourselves.

3:36AM

China‚Äôs religious connectivity takes one small step forward

ARTICLE: “No Disputes Over Beijing’s New Bishop,” by Howard W. French and Ian Fisher, New York Times, 21 September 2007, p. A10.

Good to see. No great sense of breakthrough but a business-like approach to something that could have set nascent ties back, so optimism is the order of the day.

Had a talk with a senior China hand yesterday at State and it was interesting how he described Beijing’s political leadership slowly realizing that all this rising connectivity was creating obligations and relationships with outsiders for which--quite frankly--these guys have never felt any responsibility in the past, but now they have no choice.

More and more Chinese work abroad. When they get in trouble, they text home and their relatives ask the government what it’s going to do about it.

More and more Chinese travel abroad. They need more services and help and consular support.

More business disputes, more environmental issues, more complaints by foreigners about foreign policy ties, etc.

Every sliver of connectivity begets follow-on connectivity, follow-on responsibility and responsiveness. Over time, a government and bureaucracy that was solely focused on internal control becomes increasingly reoriented toward external affairs, over which their capacity for control is highly circumscribed. All the while, the average person is getting more demanding, expecting more in terms of services, with nationalism fueling a sense of growing entitlement (“This is not how a great power takes care of its people!”).

Fascinating stuff, especially in the religious realm, which people are taking more seriously by the day across China. And so connectivity with the Vatican is necessary, however awkwardly achieved.

And every time it's achieved, there’s yet another “county” to be heard from on a regular basis.

1:10PM

(This week's) Tom around the web

+ EagleSpeak linked Tom's Esquire piece on sea-traffic control.
+ Information Dissemination picked it up (and didn't like it). [Tom's note: Galrahn simply went on a side rant regarding a particular Ulrich statement that reflects Harry's current position. It was ill-advised and unfortunately distracting to an otherwise great and informative post. I comment further below.]
+ Dans Blog also linked Sea-Traffic Control.

+ TigerHawk linked The Next Five States (and elicited 27 comments).
+ John Robb linked it and, not surprisingly, disagreed with the premise.
+ Yet another weird SF fan linked it.

+ John Robb linked The coming strike on Iran.
+ So did Hootsbuddy's Place.
+ Relatedly, Auspundits, linked Signalling Iran with our proxy and The case for signaling Iran as compromise.
+ Left Flank missed the point and called Bush has done moved on--quite deftly a 'war dance'.

+ Silflay Hraka quoted some Michael Totten that they said Tom would like.
+ Scitalks embedded the TED video.
+ LibraryThing has PNM and BFA.
+ Wormtown Taxi linked The balanced world economy is more easily achieved than imagined.
+ Outside the Beltway linked Giuliani reaching to the wrong audiences.
+ Outside the Beltway also linked Intell: slowest and dumbest of all.
+ ThreatsWatch linked Vietnam backwards, a Balkans in reverse.
+ WakeUpandShutUp posted his/her 'Favorite Thomas P.M. Barnett Story.

+ Dans Blog reprinted last week's column.
+ And ZenPundit linked it (along with his own take on Barnett-as-William Wallace ;-)
+ The Conservative Voice mentioned PNM.
+ Midwest Commando linked the Time interviews.
+ Just one more note that Curtis' 5GW Theory Timeline, including many of Tom's posts, is truly impressive.
+ Layer 8 says reading Tom is 'like, 20,000th grade'.

6:35AM

Pollution gets too costly in Asia once it starts costing connectivity

ARTICLE: "Hong Kong struggles to halt exodus of foreigners: Local workforce talent, air pollution cited as factors," by Paul Wiseman, USA Today, 24 September 2007, p. 7A.

Not much to be done about rising local talent, nor the heightened buzz factor with Shanghai, but when 35 percent of your businesses say they have trouble getting potential hires to move to your city, you've got a real issue on your hands, especially if "super-clean" Singapore is your main competition.

6:31AM

Keep AFRICOM HQ out of Africa

Tom got an email asking for thoughts/reactions/explanations on the article New AFRICOM staff to be mainly situated outside Africa

Tom writes:

As expected. No desire to favor any one of the five regions, as the CJTF-HOA gets franchised to the other four. Better to keep it out of Africa, and best--as I argue--to put it in Northern VA to highlight and enable it's "3D" approach of synergistically blending defense, diplomacy and development.

6:21AM

Hard to dispute (when I've said it before)

OP-ED: Iraq's Inevitabilities, By Richard Cohen, Washington Post, September 25, 2007; Page A19

Analysis that's rather hard to dispute. Again, a Balkans done backwards.

(Thanks: Hans Suter, who says 'seems ghostwritten by you')

6:17AM

The split in Special Ops

ESSAY: Support grows for standing up an unconventional warfare command, BY SEAN D. NAYLOR, Armed Forces Journal, September 2007

Even inside the Special Ops Forces, those who engage in SysAdmin work their own SysAdmin command.

I wrote about this split in Blueprint for Action: there is a huge cultural divide--believe it or not--between the civil affairs/engagement/training crowd and the direct action/trigger pullers.

Civil affairs was largely shunted off to the Reserves and Special Ops Command after Vietnam (the latter being stood up in the early 1980s after Desert One) because the Army didn't want to be associated with nation/capacity-building.

Now, in this frontier-integrating age, that skill set is in high demand, thus you see more bureaucratic agitation of this sort--as in, "give us our due!"

Makes sense to me in a Long War.

(Thanks: Matthew Garcia)

5:49AM

Davos media page

The media page for the Australian Davos Leadership Retreat that Tom spoke at is up. I didn't see any coverage on his talk, but if you're interested in that conference, you'll want to check it out.

5:04PM

The authoritative Barnett list of Favre TDs witnessed in person

Thanks to Bill Millan and the Favre TD site I now realize I've seen 21 of Brett's 420 TDs (all at Lambeau--so far).

The definitive list, for future updating:


1) #295 to Driver against Panthers in O2 (with daughter Emily; a win at 17-14)

2) #303 to Franks against Lions in O2 (with son Kevin; a win at 40-14)
3) #304 to Henderson also against Lions

*) I suffered the ignominy of seeing Favre throw zero against the Falcons and Vick in a January playoff game in Lambeau, the only home playoff loss (7-27) Green Bay has ever suffered since 1921!

4) #316 to Fisher against Lions in 03 (with son Kevin; a win at 31-6)
5) #317 to Ferguson also against Lions

6) #331 to Green against Eagles in 03 (with brother-in-law Todd; a loss at 14-17)

7) #353 to Walker against Giants in 04 (with son Kevin; the infamous concussion fourth-and-five toss; a loss at 7-14)

8) #361 to Walker against Vikes in 04 (with Mark Warren; a win at 34-31 on last-second winning FG)
9) #362 to Fisher also against Vikes
10) #363 to Franks also against Vikes
11) #364 to Henderson also against Vikes

12) #380 to Ferguson against Bucs in 05 (with son Kevin; a loss at 16-17)
13) #381 to Chatman also against Bucs

14) #393 to Driver against Vikes in 05 (with brothers-in-law Todd and Steve and father-in-law Carl; a loss at 17-20)
15) #394 also to Driver also against Vikes

16) #397 to Jennings against Saints in 06 (with son Kevin; a loss at 27-34)
17) #398 to Ferguson also against Saints
18) #399 to Herron also against Saints

*) no TDs against Pats in 06 (my brother Jerome got ripped off!; a shut-out 35-0 loss with Favre knocked out the entire second half!)

19) #418 to Driver against Chargers in 07 (with son Kevin; a win at 31-24)
20) #419 to Franks also against Chargers
21) #420 to tie Marino's career record to Jennings also against Chargers

So I guess Kev's seen a total of 13 himself. Come to think of it, Kev's gone 3-3 in W-L, which is better than me overall.

In all, I've seen Favre in 12 games (got at least three more to go this season), and he's thrown:
--> zero TDs two times
--> one TD three times
--> two TDs four times
--> three TDs two times, and
--> four TDs one time.

As of this game, then, I've seen Brett throw 10 percent of his Lambeau TDs (21 of 201), and 5 percent of his total TDs.

Not bad considering how late in his career (2002) I started!

Alas, I've only seen five wins and have endured seven losses. Yesterday was the first win since Warren and I saw the thrilling win over the Vikes in 2004.

4:09PM

A worthy extension by Robb of a bad scenario

Smells just like some wargames from years gone by. Consider this worst casing and what a pig-in-a-poke this would present to the next president.

Iran as a potential pillar isn't just a dream. It's somewhat of a necessary reality given what lies west and east, much of which is our own making.

3:27PM

Ken Burns' WWII documentary

Listening now to Tunisia campaign and how badly we fared there. In a couple of weeks, 6k dead, 1/3 of survivors with psychiatric trauma from combat they were unprepared for and 2400 surrendered. Ike admits the whole effort would be studied and condemned in war colleges "for the next 25 years." Ernie Pyle says maybe it was good to get our asses kicked so we'd stop being so arrogant about our military prowess and start really adapting to the circumstances. The Brits worried we'd never amount to anything.

Then Patton is sent in to correct things . . . and the legend is born.

Fast forward to a quarter million Axis troops surrendering.

But 76,000 U.S. dead over six months. From a U.S. population less than half of what it is today.

And that and Ernie Pyle saying "the worst is yet to come."

Interesting. I'm DVRing it all so I can study when I can watch closely at home.

2:47PM

Listening to BIll Richardson on Lehrer

In the long form, he comes off as very smart and very reasonable and very experienced.

If I'm Hillary, I would consider him quite seriously as Veep. A truly employable asset.

And a dual "first" in his own right that taps a serious voting force.

1:33PM

Tom in the WSJ

ARTICLE: 'Lockheed Looks Beyond Weapons: Contractor Targets Growth With Services in Strife-Torn Areas,' By AUGUST COLE, Wall Street JournalSeptember 24, 2007; Page A10

Tom gets mentioned in the WSJ today:

"Lockheed doing this kind of thing is crucial to this process," said Thomas Barnett, who is senior managing director at corporate and government consultant Enterra Solutions and an expert on how the military can deal with the developing world and ungoverned areas.

Tom says:

I spoke with August by phone for almost an hour, primarily for background purposes.

Still, as always, you aim for nice quote that gets your company named. Steve and I know Linda Gooden professionally, having worked together as strategic consultants for her directly, and we're very impressed by her leadership. She is arguably the most powerful woman working in the global defense sector today.