Tom around the web

Ok, since I am so far behind (from working on GP), to catch up I'm going to do another one of these posts where I just list the places that have linked/mentioned Tom with even less commentary than usual. If I give you too little shrift, feel free to sound off in the comments.

+ Posts on the coming of Great Powers
zenpundit
HG's WORLD
Soob

+ The TED Talk
Johnny Photon
all of the above
digg
New Ideas on War and Peace
Optimistic Jeremiads

+ LTC Nagl on War in the 21st Century
+ "In the twenty-first century, wars are not won when the enemy army is defeated on the battlefield"

+ Political Parties, A House Divided, Quality Leadership
+ Reasons for Concern and Reasons for Optimism
+ Leadership Challenges
+ Building a 300 room hotel in 20 weeks
+ Political Parties, A House Divided, Quality Leadership
+ JOURNAL: Is the Global System a Frontier?
+ Smart Bullets?
+ Eighty Six The Battleship
+ PurpleSlog
+ Fear and Loathing in Georgetown

+ Return of Blackwater
+ SWJ Blog
+ How Roubini lost a tiny bit of his reputation.
+ Oil vs Grain What the Future Holds
+ China Reading Worth the Time
+ Obama and Iran
+ Resilient Communities
+ Positive Signs Out of Russia
+ U.S. is to Food as OPEC is to Oil
+ Democracy, natural resources, and corporate governance

+ Reforming Strategic Defense Planning: First, Abolish The Budget
+ Taikonaut to Take a Walk
+ Recommended Reading
+ SWJ Blog
+ Post-Cold War Horizontal Scenario - "For Games"
+ The State of Dense Comparisons
+ Quote of the Day
+ Amber Waves of Grain
+ Iraq, War, American Foreign Policy, George Bush, Who is John McCain, The Presidential Election, The War on Terror, and Other Assorted Fun

+ Why people oppose globalization
+ Iran: Finesse and Leverage
+ Inevitable Peace
+ The Post American World
+ Economics: Trends
+ Iranian People: Regard for U.S.
+ SWJ Blog
+ TurcoPundit
+ Inflation - New Core Economies
+ Observing the Resistance to the Paradigm Shift in the DoD
+ In Vietnam, market economy and religious freedom grow
+ Civil - Military Relations: The Case of Admiral Fallon
+ 10 Reasons Why China is Good for Space
+ Que faire de ce Siecle ?
+ SWJ Blog
+ Thoughts on open source and politics 2.0
+ Recommended Reading
+ ISLAM NEW FACE

+ Our partners in the end
+ ASspot
+ Reading Public Library
+ Thomas PM Barnett on the Military-Market Nexus
+ Barnett: "Don't expect Europe to step in line behind any new American president."
+ Crisis, what crisis
+ The surge must be working
+ Papírsárkány - avagy miért nem lesz Kína katonai szuperhatalom
+ Pale Blue Dot

+ "American adjustments may have come too late and help too little ...
+ SWJ Blog
+ Supply Risk or Price Risk?
+ Ex-U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff: "Zero Chance" of War Between U.S. and Russia
+ Iran: The Threat By Thomas Powers
+ Good defense of globalization
+ Support Services Division works behind the scenes

Zakaria: a serious style emerges

WORLD VIEW: "The Only Thing We Have to Fear …" by Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek, 2 June 2008, p. 37.

Until the last book (Post-American World, which to me is a bad title) and recent columns (last year or so), I never could discern any real identifiable style in Zakaria's writing, meaning that if you showed it to me without his name, I'd have no idea if he wrote it or somebody else.

I think that's really changed over the last year. Where, in the past, he was reticent to insert himself much in his writing, now he does it a lot more. Now, when you read him, it's more and more stuff that seems unique to his worldview, which is becoming ever more optimistic and—as a welcome result—far more resistant to fear-mongering, which he never really did. It's just that his previous writing was so . . . "on the one hand . . . on the other hand" that you never were quite sure where he came down—just that he was reasonably patient (the illiberal democracy argument).

Here he makes a nice leverage off a reasonable tally of global terrorism, one that doesn't count every act of violence in Iraq to inflate its numbers. Pretty reasonable stuff interpreted with some authority by Zakaria, who seems committed by his book to reject the terrorists-are-running-the-world thesis that so many in national security have fallen in love with in recent years.

On that basis alone, it is great to see the book coincide (no accident) with a major media blitz by his various backers to turn him into an A-list media star (although CNN could have given him a better time than 1pm on Sunday). There's not that many journalists out there who can talk intelligently about global affairs, and there's such a huge divide between the economic thinkers and the pol-mil-dip thinkers, that you basically have to switch channels to get much of a comprehensive view of globalization, which is all national security and treaties to the pol-mil-dip crowd and all markets and deals to the economics crowd. Naturally, I see a lot more reality captured in the latter camp than in the former, but Zakaria is a good person to address that gap.

America's finest export: rules!

DEALS & DEALMAKERS: "Cox to Press Global Rules: SEC Chief Seeks An Oversight Body For Accounting," by Kara Scannell and David Gauthier-Villars, Wall Street Journal, 28 May 2008, p. C3.

Countries have SEC-like rules for their own markets. What is missing in the global economy are global rules for how those exchanges interact with one another.

Until that global rule set emerges, expect the experimentation to work those seams—for good and ill.

Be surprised! Be VERY surprised!!

ARTICLE: "Atomic Monitor Signals Concern Over Iran's Work: Cites Lack of Openness; Agency Finds Evidence Pointing to Weapons—Iran's Rebuttal," by Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, 27 May 2008, p. A1.

Actually, don't be surprised.

Iran will continue doing just enough in the direction of weaponizing its growing nuclear technology to warrant all sorts of damning international reports.

Iran will also do just enough to bolster energy ties to New Core pillars like India, Russia and China to make a collective international response virtually meaningless, leaving the U.S. and Israel very unpalatable choices.

But, by all means, be SHOCKED! every time you see such headlines.

More on the reset battle

REVIEW by John Nagl: The Echo of Battle: The Army's Way of War, By Brian McAllister Linn, 320 pages, $27.95, Harvard University Press, 2007, ISBN: 0674026519, in © RUSI APRIL 2008 VOL. 153 NO. 2 pp. 82–3

Nagl reviewing Linn and exploring the all-important concept of the "reset." I wrote about this in yesterday's column.

The battle for the reset will be fierce and crucial to the future security of this country.

It will either represent an embrace or an abandonment of the world we find ourselves managing at this point in history.

(Thanks: Lexington Green)

The deep connectivity begins to appear in Eastern Europe

REAL-ESTATE FINANCE: "Warehouse Sprout in Poland: Eastern Europe's Factories, Consumer Growth Fuel Boom; Fanning Out Across Continent," by Jonathan Karp, Wall Street Journal, 28 May 2008, p. C15.

Article starts with scene in increasingly post-industrial Lodz, Poland: global infrastructure and logistical players moving in—all "part of companies' broader strategy to seek high-growth markets beyond mature mainstays such as the U.S. and U.K."

Nice bit: "Part of the demand has been driven by manufacturers, particularly auto and electronics makers, that have migrated to Eastern Europe to take advantage of lower labor costs and need their component supply-chains to follow suit."

The future? Poland as the "middle" of Europe.

Interesting stuff.

Devil's Tower

Just below boulder field

Western side, about 5pm MTN.

We begin the 1-plus mile hike around the base.

Southern exposure

Eastern side, the side where the landing strip was in "Close Encounters" (actually all moderately wooded).

North side. 2 climbers on ledge just above branches on left. Not sure I got them in this photo. Seemed they were descending.

Oldest formations in area, with Tower in background.

The latest pix

Famous Mitchell Corn Palace, a shrine to tomorrow.

Wild Bill Hickok grave, Deadwood SD

This week's column

The coming battle in the Pentagon

A vociferous bureaucratic battle will occur across the first two years of the next administration, one that will greatly determine our military's future capabilities in this long war against radical extremism.

On one side will be pitted the "big war" crowd with its emphasis on "resetting" the force following the inevitable drawdown in Iraq. This is mostly the air-sea crowd from the Air Force and Navy. On the other side will stand—ironically enough—those mostly ground forces from the Army and Marines that are logically slated to benefit maximally from any such "healing period."

Read on at Scripps Howard.
Read on at KnoxNews.

Sioux's Falls

Close-up

Live action video!

M&A the Tata way

ARTICLE: "Tata, Jaguar/Land Rover not such an odd couple: Indian company has been in auto business for 50 years," by Sharon Silke Carty, USA Today, 28 May 2008, p. 1A.

I swear to God I saw a Nano, Tata's new car, in North Carolina last week. I have no idea how it got there, but I swear I saw one.

Even if it was a mirage, the vision was a harbinger—in global terms. Tata aims to produce for the bottom of the pyramid consumers, and all those sales will mean Tata becomes a global car kingpin. And global auto kingpins buy upscale brands to complete their offerings. This happens all the time in consumer goods industries, and it will happen here. It's just that this time, it won't be American companies in the lead, because car manufacturing tends to be driven by rising economic pillars, not mature ones.

So get used to the Tata name. Somewhere down the road it'll be on your car's grill.

Owning the barrel in the Dark Continent

SPECIAL REPORT: "China ‚Üí Africa: With Its Resource-Hungry Push Into The Sub-Sahara, Beijing Puts The Planet To The Test," by Richard Behar, Fast Company, June 2008, p. 101.

Scary but good piece that emphasizes all the downside in Africa from China's great search for raw materials.

The main problem? China acts like the world is running out of resources, believing, in the 1970s manner of the West, that it needs to own everything still in the ground to feel secure.

In reality, an ever-wealthier China doesn't face supply threats or risks, but price risks.

But because China remains backward in its thinking, its approach in Africa repeats a lot of colonial mistakes. These pile up over time, creating a backlash.

And that means China will have to change its policies—indeed, it's entire foreign policy.

The grubby approach simply drives up prices, which feeds inflation, which will make China too expensive in production, which will reduce profits.

The food crisis resolved: two paths

EDITORIAL: "The Doha dilemma: Does freer trade help poor people?" The Economist, 31 May 2008, p. 82.

CURRENTS: "Farming's Last Frontier: African Farmers, U.S. Companies Try to Recreate Another Breadbasket," by Roger Thurow, Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2008, p. A14.

Complex editorial basically says that "when countries cut their tariffs on farms goods, their consumers pay lower prices. In contrast, when farm subsidies are slashed, world food prices rise," so the net effect of totally free ag trade would be to raise global prices.

Good or bad?

One World Bank study (forthcoming) says that net food buyers tend to be richer than net food sellers, so the income transfer is good on a global scale. Yes, some countries will become poorer but more will become richer.

So the conclusion:

These subtleties suggest two conclusions. First, the bank, and others, should beware sweeping generalizations about the impact of food prices on the poor. Second, the nature of trade reform matters. Removing rich-country subsidies on staple goods, the focus of much debate in the Doha round, may be less useful in the fight against poverty than cutting tariffs would be. The food-price crisis has not hurt the case for freer farm trade. But it has shown how important it is to get it right.

The other big fix is suggested in the WSJ piece: give African farmers, the most disconnected from technology, the same access to hybrid seeds that unleashed the big boost in yields in America in the 1920s and 1930s.

Big U.S. ag companies have resisted trying to sell to the bottom of the pyramid farmers inside Gappish Africa for a long time, believing them too poor to afford the seeds, so in Ethiopia, for example, only ¼ of the farm land uses hybrids.

This dam needs to be broken. Keeping labor on the farm, where it's poorly employed, means we don't create consumers in Africa for our goods.

This ain't about charity. It's about who makes the most markets happen inside the Gap—our real competition with China.

Even Sadr wants his split force

ARTICLE: Iraqi Troops Mass for Assault in South, By ANDREW E. KRAMER, New York Times, June 15, 2008

To wit:

In a statement read by aides during Friday prayers, Mr. Sadir said the movement would be divided into two branches. One group will remain armed and operate as an underground force, continuing to oppose the presence of American troops. The other branch would concentrate on politics and providing social services to Iraqis.

(Thanks: Lucien Gauthier)

Good defense of globalization

ARTICLE: This Global Show Must Go On, By TYLER COWEN, June 8, 2008

Nothing new, but nicely stated.

(Thanks: jarrod myrick)

Why Wynne and Moseley got axed

ARTICLE: At Odds With Air Force, Army Adds Its Own Aviation Unit, By Thom Shanker, New York Times, June 22, 2008

Sad commentary on the growing SysAdmin (Army)/Leviathan (Air Force) tension.

This is really why Wynne and Moseley get axed, though it wasn't clear they themselves were the problem.

Really, it's a culture problem, plus the rising "reset" battle (Do we go back to what it was after Iraq [Leviathan position] or do the adjustments continue [SysAdmin position]?).

Fierce bureaucratic battle ahead!

Strategic Air Command Museum, Ashland NE

SR-71

B-17 (Flying Fortress) nose

The Oracle's fave restaurant. Lived up to its billing.

Now it really seems done (for me at least)

Ch. 8 (last substantive one) yesterday afternoon, and then went 2000-0200 to do the notes.

Need to edit Mark's edit of the short conclusion, but that's it, in terms of new generated material.

Except for the cover text (I only edit Putnam), the dedication (already decided), the acknowledgments (Sean prepping), glossary of terms (shorter than BFA) and ... that's really about it.

From starting work on the proposal to now? Basically a year, but it's been worthwhile and interesting.

Now the vacation ...

Raise and you shall receive

EDITORIAL: "Recoil: Painful though it is, this oil shock will eventually spur huge change. Beware the hunt for scapegoats," The Economist, 31 May 2008, p. 13.

BRIEFING: "Double, double, oil and trouble: Is it 'peak oil' or a speculative bubble? Neither, really," The Economist, 31 May 2008, p. 73.

GLOBAL BUSINESS: "Well-Oiled Machine: With a push from Exxon, Alberta's tar sands are poised to increase oil production to Saudi-like levels," by Erik Heinrich, Time, 2 June 2008, p. G2.

From the editorial, this bit of logic:

The truth [of the energy crisis] is more prosaic. Finding and developing new oil fields is an expensive and time-consuming business. The giant new fields in the deep water off Brazil are unlikely to produce oil for a decade or more. Furthermore, oil is perverse. When prices are low, oil-rich countries welcome the low-cost, high-tech and well-capitalized oil firms. When prices are high, countries like Russia and Venezuela kick them out again. Likewise the engineers, survey ships and seismic rigs that oil firms need to find and produce new deposits are expensive right now. The costs of finding oil have, temporarily, doubled precisely because everybody wants to give them work.

So yes, we'll see lotsa conservation (already begun), says the Economist, "but everything high prices achieve could be done better by sensible carbon taxes."

Still, half the world's population is sheltered by subsidies, meaning plenty of waste ensues among those who can afford it least.

The upside?

The first two oil shocks [early and late 1970s] banished oil from power generation. How fitting if the third finished the job and began to free transport from oil's century-long monopoly.

This too shall pass.

From the accompanying briefing, more wisdom:

High prices are seen as proof of some sort of breakdown. Yet the evidence suggests that, to the contrary, the rising price is beginning to curb demand and increase supply, just as the textbooks say it should.

I am shocked! SHOCKED!

The annual change in world oil consumption is down from the recent 2004 high of 2.5% to roughly 0.75% last year.

The longer term reality is suggested by Gary Becker, U Chicago: over the short run of less than five years, when price doubles the OECD/Core countries' demand drops only 2-9% while oil production outside of OPEC grows only 4%. But over the long haul, a price doubling gets you a 60% drop in OECD demand and a 35% rise in non-OPEC production.

Where will that happen this time?

How about the tar sands in Alberta? Roughly enough to account for 10-15% of global oil production in the future.

Alberta liberal politician Ross Jabobs puts it well: "We need to start acting like an OPEC-level player with an ability to change the world economy."

Only 70 years to enjoy, in terms of supply, so I say, start fast.

Very sensible stuff and good to see

ARTICLE: Gates begins wartime transition to new leadership, By ROBERT BURNS, AP, Jun 10, 2008

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)