Better thinking through chemistry

ARTICLE: "All on the mind: Prepare for drugs that will improve memory, concentration and learning," The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 103.

EDITORIAL: "Smart drugs: Drugs to make you cleverer are in the test-tube. Good." The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 22.

Humans have sought chemical enhancement from the dawn of time, and with the 21st century shaping up as THE century of biology, expect the practice to skyrocket and cause major social schisms between the all-natural crowd and the enhanced cohort.

We're just scratching these surfaces for now with athletes, but when long-term use of brain-performance drugs starts to elevate some while leaving others behind in a knowledge economy . . . well, that could get tricky.

But I'm with the Economist: you cannot deny people the opportunity to improve, especially as we age. If there's no limit to the disposable income tossed at failure to erect or keep a head of hair or to sport big enough breasts or a thin-enough waistline, then it'll be no-limits on the pursuit of intellectual happiness.

Expect Big Pharma to have learned from the past: no profitable brain-enhancement drug will be allowed to go "black" anymore. Simply too big a market to let slip into the netherworld of criminality.

As we get closer to Kurzweil's Singularity, this is going to get contentious . . . challenging and thus changing the face of the world's major religions.

The military-market nexus—old school

BRIEFING: "A war of money as well as bullets: The Americans are learning the tricks of the Great Game quicker than the British, who invented it," The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 37.

EDITORIAL: "How the 'good war' could fail: America needs to lean much harder on Afghanistan's President Karzai," The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 18.

The model emerging of U.S. air assets acting like the cavalry to the outposts manned by the increasingly larger and more competent Afghan army (unlike the still largely inefficient and corrupt police).

It's this sort of stuff that leads some pundits to assume the military IS the answer.

But the real impact is found in how our military spends money for local job creation: if the insurgents pay the equivalent of $5 per hour for bad deeds, our military simply outbids them for road work, using the Commanders Emergency Response Program (CERP), so yeah, it's jobs—stupid!

And infrastructure, of course, meaning connectivity, which drives economics.

"Where the road ends the insurgents begin," says one American officer.

But this is old hat, even in this neck of the woods. As the Muslim scholar Ibn Qutayba (9th century) put it:

There can be no government without an army
No army without money
No money without prosperity
And no prosperity without justice and good administration

Like most things, my military-market nexus contained little new knowledge—just experience.

One thing I notice from the maps: southern Afghanistan is where the violence is, where the poppies are grown, and where the Pashtun predominate.

So when Bret Stephens of the WSJ says that anyone who argues for non-military solutions is simply repeating a "mindless shibboleth," he needs to get his head out of his ass.

And from the WSJ no less!

The disgrace that was this year's farm bill

ARTICLE: "A harvest of disgrace: Congress at its worst," The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 46.

McCain gets the kudos and Obama the jeers for this one: 20 percent of the recipients (virtually all big ag firms, by anyone's calculations) get 80 percent of the feed—a whopping $307 billion during a global food crisis.

"Shockingly," as the Economist puts it, some of the payments were tied to today's high prices.

For shame.

An evening on the town

Got home around 10pm Friday night and immediately packed to leave. Children dispersed, Vonne and I catch a very early morning flight to Newark through Chicago O'Hare and then train into Penn and cab it to our Times Square hotel.

After a brief nap (parents of four kids LOVE to nap), without which the next part would not have been possible, we meet Mark Warren and his wife for dinner at Virgil's off the Square (Memphis-style dry ribs place I visit every chance I get).

It was a fabulous meal with conversation that went on for 2 and a half hours (our waiter loved us), and was the first time either Mark or Jessica had met Vonne.

Then Vonne and I see "Les Relations Dangereux" at the Roundabout, fourth row, dead center to celebrate 26 years together (22 legal). Laura Linney starred, along with Tony-nominated Ben Daniels (who was mesmerizing as "Valmont." Meryl Streep's daughter, Mamie Gummer, made her debut in this run, and was likewise excellent. More nudity than I expected (mostly male), and a truly engrossing set and production.

Three hours flew.

Needed to do that, and probably owe my kids an amusement park run to boot. Next ten days is mad dash to complete the edit of Great Powers.

This week's column

Capitalism's reverse domino effect in Vietnam

The Economist magazine recently published a special report on Vietnam. It's a fascinating story of how a closed political system rapidly opened itself up to globalization's transformative embrace by mixing role models from all over the globe, including accepting outside religious influences.

Call it the reverse domino effect: Vietnam goes super-capitalist to keep up with its northern neighbor -- uber-capitalist China. And with incomes rising rapidly, Vietnamese naturally reach for spiritual handholds to guide their tumultuous journey from extreme deprivation to abundant opportunity.

Read on at Scripps Howard.
Read on at KnoxNews.

The specter of the 1970s

ARTICLE: "An old enemy rears its head: Emerging economies risk repeating the same mistakes that the developed world made in the inflationary 1970s," The Economist, 24 May 2008, p. 91.

Scary bit of reporting by the Economist: the rising New Core economies look to be triggering their own inflation much like the West did to itself in the 1970s.

If measured correctly, five of the ten biggest emerging economies could have inflation rates of 10% or more by mid-summer. Two-thirds of the world's population may be struggling with double-digit inflation.

No surprise on drivers: oil and food.

Naturally, emerging markets are loathe to raise interest rates, the usual fix. But the synchronized boom of today, just like that of the early 1970s, has caused commodity prices to surge across the planet, and "governments have responded with subsidies and wage and price controls," adding to money supply growth.

Logic in the West says the Great Inflation of the 1970s cannot be repeated because central banks in the West are now more independent from politicians. But when we add in all these state-directed market states, the old mix is back, especially when emerging markets don't want to trigger capital flight and/or job loss.

The Old Core says to the New Core: let your currencies float more and all will be solved. True in the global sense but less so in the local sense, and therein lies the rub.

But it rubs both ways, because the more emerging markets resist, the worse global inflation and local inflation becomes, and they're the economies that will suffer the most, according to most economists.

Time for the transport mafia

ARTICLE: Gates picks non-fighter pilot to head the Air Force, By Julian E. Barnes and Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times, June 10, 2008

Bingo!

This is big deal: bypassing the fighter-jock mafia.

Clear signal indeed: next-war-itis is no longer tolerated on Gates' watch.

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

Home again

Got up and packed this morn in Den Haag, and then went two hours with all the senior officials of the Foreign Ministry, save the Minister himself.

Sharp professional bunch of about 20. Basically all the deputy and assistant deputy and under equivalents. A very cool audience to interact with. Felt very privileged.

Started reading "Island at the Center of the World" on way home. One of the gifts.

Pretty damn beat, though.

Five talks and a meet over basically two full working days, although spread over three days, with one being right off the plane.

The Dutch work, I have found after two trips now (Amsterdam last time, Hague this one).

I hope I don't have to fly too early tomorrow, but at least this one is pleasure.

Tom in China Security

Tom's got a short piece in this month's China Security. Since it's on page 8 of the 70 page pdf of the whole issue, I pull out Tom's part for you here:

(Thanks: Galrahn)

The Inevitable Alliance

China Security Vol. 4 No. 2 Spring 2008

China’s main strategic vulnerability right now is that it possesses economic and network connectivity with the outside world that is unmatched by its political-military capacity to defend. This forces Beijing to “free ride” on Washington’s provision of global security services, a situation that makes China’s leaders uncomfortable today – as it should. American blood for Chinese oil is an untenable strategic transaction.

The United States faced a similar situation in its “rise” in the late 1800s and set about “rebranding” its military force over a several-decade period that culminated with a successful entry into World War I. Since World War II, the United States has maintained a primarily expeditionary force that is able to access international crises, and since the end of the Cold War has done so with unprecedented frequency. This too is an untenable strategic burden.

America needs to encourage China’s effective re-branding as an accepted worldwide provider of stability operations. The problem today is two-fold: 1) major portions of America’s military require China to remain in the enemy image to justify existing and new weapons and platforms; and 2) the Chinese military is hopelessly fixated on “access denial” strategies surrounding Taiwan, meaning it buys the wrong military for the strategic tasks that inevitably lie ahead.

So long as both nations insist on such mirror-imaging, their respective militaries will continue to buy one military while operating (or, in China’s case, needing to operate) another force that remains under-developed. Such strategic myopia serves neither great power’s longterm interests, which are clearly complimentary throughout the developing world.

The good news is that both China and the United States are within a decade’s time of seeing new generations emerge among their respective political and military leaderships. These future leaders view the potential for Sino-American strategic alliance far differently than do the current leadership generation. If Washington and Beijing can navigate the next dozen or so years without damaging current ties, I fully expect to see a Sino-American strategic alliance emerge.

I do not present this as a theoretical possibility, but as my professional judgment based on years of extensive contacts through both nations’ national security establishments.

Grand strategy often involves getting leaders to understand certain future inevitabilities. The global primacy of the Sino-American strategic alliance in the 21st century is one such future inevitability.

Thomas P.M. Barnett is the senior managing director of Enterra Solutions, and author of The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century (New York: G.P. Putnam’s Sons, 2004).

One man's trash...

ARTICLE: Union Critical of Obama’s Top Economics Aide, By LOUIS UCHITELLE, New York Times, June 12, 2008

Personally, I see this as a very good sign for Obama.

A golden age of satire

ARTICLE: "Comedians Of Clout: In a Funny Way, Satirical Takes Can Color Perceptions of the Presidential Contenders," By Michael Cavna, Washington Post, June 12, 2008; Page C01

To me, the clearest sign that Bush ends up like being Nixon (the bad Nixon) is the compelling rise of satire.

Obama scouting retired military

ARTICLE: Obama veep vetting team looks at retired military, By NEDRA PICKLER and MARY CLARE JALONICK, AP, June 10, 2008

Interesting possibility, but you sense Obama's simply taking advantage of the selection to do all sorts of scouting.

I still like Webb, the younger John McCain who steals some thunder.

But who knows ...

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

Five years later, our beef once again gains entry into South Korea

ARTICLE: "South Korea Acts on U.S. Beef Imports," by Evan Ramstad, Wall Street Journal, 30 May 2008, p. A9.

ARTICLE: Fury at South Korean President Grows, By Stella Kim and Blaine Harden, Washington Post, June 11, 2008; Page A10

Takes five years, but Seoul finally lifts ban fully. Naturally, the U.S. lost a lot of market share, including the larger reality that beef consumption still down in the country.

Think the food flow doesn't matter in terms of network security?

This is but a glimpse of the far more connected future with global warming.

Second story says Seoul holds off on lifting ban after government forces battle "thousands" of protestors on the street. Yikes!

(Thanks: Constantina Meis)

Day two in Den Haag, and three more presentations

Construction around and "above" hotel (don't ask) wakes me at 0700, but I've gotten a solid eight hours and so feel okay. The sinus infection is abating nicely.

Meet with my Foreign Ministry host for coffee in lobby, and then off to engage the Netherlands Government Strategy Board from 0930 to 1200. Bit of problem hooking Mac, but once local AV guys figure they cross-wired, it was okay. Brilliant cool board room on top of this towering (biggest building in the Hague), very modern building. I go about an hour, then two locals (big name political scientist who is number one commentator on Dutch TV on foreign affairs plus head of strategic planning for Ministry of Defense, who emphasized that the Minister had read PNM and had really taken to its vision) offer comments with questions. I answer their six questions and then take a slew more questions. All very nice and I'm in decent-to-good form so long as I don't let my mind wander.

Then to lunch at Japanese place with Ministry of Justice officials.

Then to butcher-block presentation (20 mins) to special discussion group of senior Justice and Internal Affairs ministries--a select group of ten. We discuss issues for about 40.

Then a presentation of about an hour to an open-call audience of mid-level officials from same two ministries, in a converted church, which was weird. About 20 minutes of Q&A. Then drinks, heavies, and more discussion for another 45.

Then I am cut loose for day and simply wander around the downtown for two hours, checking the sights and basically observing people. The Hague is an interesting place. About a quarter of the population are immigrants from all over the world.

People are so polite here. Beautiful night and everyone is just so pleased to be out and about. I can see why people like living here.

Ate at McD's (Big Mac meal and vanilla shake). All good, but price is 7.55 euros, which equates to $11.64. Place was doing brisk business, though.

Chill for the night at hotel. One more speech (to make five in all) tomorrow to the special think tank of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Bummer is no Minister. I was hoping for the 3D trifecta here, because the Dutch are so keen on the concept and talk about it a lot.

Tom around the web

+ CNN mentioned Tom in their interview with Admiral Fallon: Admiral: Bush doesn't want war with Iran.

+ HG's WORLD has a post entitled Oil vs Grain What the Future Holds that links to a lot of Tom's posts on food issues, then some character references ;-)

+ Information Dissemination has a long discussion of the Very Small Surface Combatant and refers to and links Tom quite a bit.
+ Galrahn also thanked Tom (and me ;-) for supporting his weblog through its first year.

+ Quality Leadership Weblog linked A bit too convenient for McCain on Iraq and Bush pre-approves Israeli strikes on Iran.

+ Castle Argghhh! linked Obama and McCain spar on Iran.
+ Lexington Green linked Email re: this week's column.
+ Left On Haggard Nobody in their right mind would ever strategically compare Iran's threat to the USSR.
+ Kairos Group linked Next-war-itis.
+ Bruce Lays it Out Good B.L.O.G. uploaded The Map for a discussion of Central Asia.
+ Antagoniste.net quoted PNM.
+ The Politics of Scrabble linked Turn the page, baby!
+ Vault-Co quoted Tom on Kaplan.
+ OPFOR linked Keep AFRICOM HQ out of Africa.

+ SWJ Blog linked Tom's ideas in naval strategy circles.
+ And linked Already Beijing is thinking food security.
+ And linked Documenting our kills—the future of global security services and Good article on blowback China's already facing in Africa and Turkey: two good reads.

+ Growth Matters linked Good article on blowback China's already facing in Africa.
+ Dialectical Moose linked Simple math on food costs.
+ And linked Cool visuals on world food issues/dynamics.
+ So did China Law Blog.

+ Kendall Harmon linked the TED talk.
+ So did Prayers that Matter.

Links to Documenting our kills—the future of global security services:
+ Outside the Beltway
+ The Retrograde and Faithless

Globalization is good

OP-ED: "Rx for Global Poverty," by Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 2-8 June 2008, p. 30.

21-member Commission on Growth and Development comes up with 5 characteristics of growing economies:

1) Openness to global trade and FDI
2) Political stability but not necessarily democracy; a gov committed to growth
3) High savings
4) Sensible gov spending and inflation control
5) A willingness to let markets allocate resources

Samuelson's upshot?

Globalization works.

Telegraph took 90 years to spread, but cellphones only 16--thanks to globalization.

Clincher:

Globalization has moral as well as economic and political dimensions. The United States and other wealthy countries are experiencing an anti-globalization backlash. Americans and others are entitled to defend themselves from economic harm, but many of the allegations against globalization are wildly exaggerated. Today, for example, the biggest drag on the U.S. economy--the housing crisis--is mainly a domestic problem. By making globalization an all-purpose scapegoat for economic complaints, many "progressives" are actually undermining the most powerful force for eradicating global poverty.

Can't say it better.

Russia bids to invade Alaska

POST: Gazprom Bidding on Alaska Pipeline, By Charles Ganske, Russia Blog, June 8, 2008

One result of so much infrastructure building going on in the BRICs. It's natural that the most dynamic and ambitious players now arise from those ranks.

Stunning but normal.

Inside the Pentagon on 9/11

BOOK: Firefight: Inside the Battle to Save the Pentagon on 9/11, By Patrick Creed and Rick Newman, Ballantine. 486 pp. Official website

A "102 Minutes"-like detailed look at the Pentagon on 9/11 (I really appreciated "102," a similar look at the World Trade Center events), for those who enjoy such drill-downs. By a USN&WR correspondent. Well reviewed.

The big opportunity for Doha

ARTICLE: "U.K.'s Brown Is Optimistic on Global-Trade Deal: Leader Pushes Pact As Means to Defy Protectionist Talk," by Alistair MacDonald, John W. Miller and Daniel Hertzberg, Wall Street Journal, 4 June 2008, p. A9.

This has been the silent, looming question for me on the food crisis (on top of the sub-prime plus energy crises): does the Doha round get a lift?

The first to publicly say so is the UK's PM Brown, who "has become a key figure in the efforts to reach a trade deal."

The other big push? Getting it done before the prez election, meaning the world assumes Bush does the right thing, and I think he's more than ready.

Indeed, absent some breakthrough in the Middle East, this my be the administration's last big shot at a global win.

Let's cross our fingers.

The marathon

Got up 0630 in DC and did 3-hour Enterra management meeting til 10. Then jump in cab, fly USAir to Indy and begin a trip to Europe through Detroit to Amsterdam, arriving in the Netherlands about 0700 Wednesday morning.

Get my luggage and grab train to Den Haag Central. The Hague is the government center of the Netherlands. Room isn't ready, so I catch breakfast and then my host from the Foreign Ministry rushes in to remind me of meet at 0930.

So I slip into head and get suited up and do about 30 minutes with the Dutch Minister for Foreign Aid. Interesting, very smart fellow. A bit strange: he's so tall I feel small, and the same holds for his female admin assistant!

Then on to institute where, after light lunch, I address about 50 members of Dutch future strategic planning commission called Verkennningen (Reconnaissance). Minister of Defense attends. We get to talk over lunch. I go about 70 and then 20 Q&A.

Then I am hosted by veteran diplomat. We tour the Hague, and I get a history lesson. Then to the great art museum right there, loaded up with Rembrandts. Then to the nation's top international affairs institute, where I talk with senior staff for about an hour. Cool palace that once served at German military occupational HQ during occupation.

Then to beach to walk a bit and then a very nice, very Dutch dinner (beer, herring gin, fresh and raw herring, lobster soup and some fish. My host just spent five years in Moscow, so lots to talk about.

Crash at hotel about 8pm but make a point not to sleep until midnight so that I get a regular eight.

Back at it again today. Struggling a bit with sinus infection I caught with drugs just before leaving U.S., but performing well as required. Just awful foggy in the morning.

So far, a fascinating trip. And the interactions have been great.