More good news on AQ's dropping appeal

ARTICLE: Suicide recruits dropping in Iraq, By Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, June 11, 2008

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

Repent! The end of Big War is near!

POST: Moseley: Gates was Right; 'Zero Chance' of War with China or Russia, By Noah Shachtman, Danger Room, June 09, 2008

One down (China-Taiwan), two (Iran, North Korea) to go in terms of Leviathan scenarios.

What kind of chance?

ARTICLE: Iran won't rule out U.S. diplomatic presence, AP, June. 24, 2008

Despite the nice sign, I am reminded of that exchange in "Dumb and Dumber":

LLOYD
Come on, give it to me straight. I drove a long way to see you, the least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

MARY
Not good.

BEAT

LLOYD
You mean not good, like one out of a hundred?

MARY
I'd say more like one out of a million.

BEAT

LLOYD
(Duh)
So you're telling me there's a chance?

Okay, I'll try to be more optimistic than that, but I really think this is posturing for the next president, although, as I've said before, this would be the one big break Bush could still engineer.

(Thanks: Jeff Jennings)

Waste—the final frontier

SOAPBOX: "Wasted Energy," by Hannah Fairfield, New York Times, 1 June 2008, p. BU6.

We create about 40 quadrillion BTUs of energy in the U.S. each year, but only about 33% is actually consumed by end users (14 quad). The rest is lost to conversion (27 quads) and distribution (1-plus quads).

Current conversion technologies thus mean we lose almost two-thirds of our energy that way.

Just on the immediate horizon, though, are technologies that should boost the capture to more like 50%.

Environmentalism of the future will be more Amory Lovins-style: more efficiency focused than pollution obsessed. Master the first and the second falls into place.

Selling to the bottom of the bottom of the pyramid

ARTICLE: "Fisher-Price Game Plan: Pursue Toy Sales in Developing Markets," by Nicholas Casey, Wall Street Journal, 29 May 2008, p. B1.

Always watch the kids markets for the first signs of change, as I noted in PNM.

Fisher-Price is targeting emerging markets for the bulk of future growth. Getting edged out by electronics back home, FP sees virgin markets in the New Core, where brand consciousness is just beginning and growing middle classes are just beginning to figure out how best to pamper their kids.

The rise of the global middle class, located largely in the New Core, will shift everything, just like the Boomers got all the attention here in the States for so long, no matter their age.

Being the supply center is nothing. Being the demand center is everything.

Now, says FP execs, they talk about America as just another market.

The rise of the rest, as Zakaria puts it.

Showing off more than architecture at the Olympics

ARTICLE: "Why China Is Finally Tackling Video Piracy: Beijing wants to prove it can protect the lucrative broadcasting rights for the Summer Games," by Peter Burrows, BusinessWeek, 9 June 2008, p. 073.

China telling its video sites they gotta stop pirating feeds, especially WRT the Olympics, the first held since the spread of video sharing technologies worldwide, notes NBC's general counsel.

The Olympics will be a turning point for China in a number of ways, but this is a key one.

As the NBC TV exec puts it: [Chinese officials] recognize the future of the Chinese economy depends on innovation and creativity, and they have to protect the [intellectual property] that drives it."

Sure sign of the COIN's success in Iraq

ARTICLE: Big Oil Firms Ready to Sign Agreements With Iraq, By Ernesto Londoño and Simone Baribeau, Washington Post, Friday, June 20, 2008; Page A12

Outside oil companies starting to show up in places beyond Kurdistan. Now the economic connectivity gets far more real. The question is how to broaden the social impact.

This is the fundamental goal of Enterra's Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢ effort in the K.R.G.

Finally, some reality on Tibet emerges.

ARTICLE: For Rural Tibetans, the Future Is in Town, By Jill Drew, Washington Post, Friday, June 20, 2008; Page A01

There is no economic logic for resource-deprived, interior landlocked states to exist. History says they should be conquered by neighboring great powers.

There is a serious split between the Dalai Lama's generation and the more economically-conscious generation that followed. They're angry at China for different reasons.

Other than the sand squabble, things looking up for Djibouti

FEATURE: "Location Gives Tiny State Prime Access to Big Riches," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 30 May 2008, p. A6.

Fascinating story.

Hundreds of millions in FDI flow suddenly.

Hmm. Maybe because the U.S. military now makes Djibouti, through its Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa presence at Camp Lemonier, an "outpost of relative stability in the Horn of Africa"?

Gold miners from India, geothermal experts from Iceland, Turkish hotel managers, Saudi oil engineers, French bankers and U.S. military contractors, so notes the NYT, are suddenly popping up all over this tiny country.

Big news is Dubai World investing to take the port from 300,000 containers per year to 3 million.

The military-market nexus? You bet.

And no rounds fired in anger by CJTF-HOA in five years.

Perpetual war, my ass.

Development progress in Nigeria

Mark in Texas writes:

ARTICLE: White Zimbabweans bring change to Nigeria, By Sarah Simpson, Christian Science Monitor, May 2, 2008

ARTICLE: Why white Zimbabwean farmers plan to stay in Nigeria, By Sarah Simpson, Christian Science Monitor, May 2, 2008

Here are a couple of interesting articles from the Christian Science Monitor about Nigeria recruiting some of the white farmers who have been driven out of Zimbabawe. Apparently they are already having a significant effect at improving things in those areas of Nigeria where they have settled. I am not sure if this sort of thing is what Tom is talking about as a component of a SysAdmin force. I think that this is something that should be encouraged but I am not sure that AFRICOM should be the ones to encourage it.

A few things that I thought were interesting were that the success of the transplanted farmers seems to depend on having a governor or some person with political connections to fight through the corruption that seems to drag down any attempt to improve things in Gap countries. It is also interesting that the farmers had to go to the extra effort of finding fertilizer sellers who actually put fertilizer in the bags marked fertilizer. Corruption extends to every aspect of public and private life in Africa. The Chinese are probably used to these sorts of problems.

Finally, it seems that the money that the banks are loaning to finance these ventures came from Nigeria's oil revenue. It seems like at least some of the people in the Nigerian government are trying to make sure that there is something left after the current oil boom is over. That puts them one up on a lot of the folks in Houston in the 1970s.

Obama is The One

ARTICLE: Obama to Reject Public Funds for Election, By Shailagh Murray and Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post, June 20, 2008; Page A01

Harnessing the social networking phenomenon and the Net in general like never before. Accept no public money and not be sitting on some personal fortune?

That is revolutionary because it changes the fundamental rule set.

Darfur R2P?

ARTICLE: A Wide-Open Battle For Power in Darfur, By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, June 20, 2008; Page A01

As many observers have argued for a while, the picture of government-sponsored genocide was somewhat misleading and simplistic. Now it seems the full picture/evolution emerges and--to no surprise--it looks like a completely ungovernable space. Does this not seem like a R2P (right to protect) scenario?

Steve is a one-man Department of Everything Else!

PRESS RELEASE: Enterra Solutions CEO Joins U.S. Chamber of Commerce as Co-Chair of Effort in Iraq (pdf)

Kicking off the school year at the Command and General Staff College (Leavenworth KS)

The invite arrives from General William Caldwell, current commander of the Combined Arms Center (CAC) and commandant of the CGSC--a distinct honor from a warrior of his renown.

1,400 officers in the "big bedroom."

What could be more privileged?

The honor is all mine.

More to the point: a couple of these guys could end up commanding my nephews next round in Iraq.

I cannot be more incentivized to speak the truth.

No need to name the date, because the seats are all already taken.

The Near Abroad is getting nearer

ARTICLE: "The East Looks West: The Kremlin may act triumphant, but Russia is losing its hold on the youth of former Soviet states," by Owen Matthews, Newsweek, 9 June 2008, p. 33.

EDITORIAL: "Chicken or Kiev? The European Union must not abandon its most successful policy when it comes to Ukraine," The Economist, 31 May 2008, p. 16.

Throughout the former Soviet republics, despite generations of tradition, we see elites and their kids increasingly skip the Russian and pick up English instead. Not just the Ukraine, but the Caucasus and in Central Asia, where the American U of Central Asia is found in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Gonna have to look that up when we adopt next.

So when Parag Khanna (Second World) writes off Central Asia to the Chinese, I guess this says, Not so fast!

Still, where I thought Khanna's stuff was superb was his take on the EU branding phenomenon, something the U.S. must learn from.

From the editorial:

It is, quite simply, the European Union's greatest achievement. The offer of EU membership to its neighbors in the east and south has proved a masterly way of stabilizing troubled countries and inducing them to make democratic and liberal reforms. The contrast with the United States, which despite spending billions of dollars has failed to find an equivalent policy for the countries of the Caribbean rim, is striking.

Amen, brother.

If wishes were horses ...

POST: Iran: Persian Gulf States Should Create Collective Security -- Mottaki, Stratfor, June 16, 2008

Inevitably, Mottaki will be right, but there's zero chance of any such arrangement emerging without outside anchors, including first and foremost the U.S.

(Thanks: Dan Hare)

Two poles: the Singularity and Mad Max

John Robb wrote:

June 16, 2008
Techno-Utopianism

I was wondering how long it would take for Barnett and DeAngelis to jump on the Singularity theme.

Tom writes:

Now John, all life and thinking doesn't begin with a blog post.

Steve and I have followed Kurzweil and Vernor Vinge for a very long time, but thanks for your magnificent blessing.

We can't all be waiting on Mad Max ...

French desire: Leviathan relevance

POST: What the President Said: Sarkozy Maps Out French Defense Future, By Christina Mackenzie, Ares, 6/17/2008

POST: French Defense White Paper Gives Priority to Technology, By Joris Janssen Lok, Ares, 6/17/2008

ARTICLE: France: Aux Armes, The Times, June 18, 2008

This copies the transformation push by the U.S. over the past decade, and signals France's desire to remain relevant to the Leviathan function.

(Thanks: Michael Griffin)

Important and good news

POST: Big Thumbs Up to General Casey, Posted by Dave Dilegge, SWJ Blog, June 17, 2008

More institutional codification of the SysAdmin.

I misspeak on Romania

The original post where I note that the countries who seem to be winning big in postwar Iraq's reconstruction weren't the ones who sent troops.

I will confess that as I rushed this one out the door (I am working long days right now), I did wonder about Romania, a country I've studied and even learned the language of (many years back). Sure enough, I am corrected by a reader who notes that Romania did send troops.

So I stand corrected on that one country.

The reader also reminds me that Romania has old ties with Iraq, which, of course, is true for most--if not all--of the countries who showed up and did well in rebuild so far.

That reality just emphasizes my point further: there are natural players in the postwar that you ignore at your peril or lack of coordination, because they will show up in the end.