12:01AM
Wikistrat's "The World According to Tom Barnett" 2011 brief, Part 6 (Flow of Security)
Friday, October 28, 2011 at 12:01AM In this section I cover the symmetricization of the Long War, nuclear proliferation (and the lack thereof), how America shaped this world with its grand strategy, and who the key superpowers will be in the post-2030 landscape.
tagged Brazil, China, EU, India, Japan, Russia, US, nuclear weapons, security | in Tom video, Tom's speaking engagments, Wikistrat | Email Article | Permalink | Print Article
Brazil, China, EU, India, Japan, Russia, US, nuclear weapons, security | in Tom video, Tom's speaking engagments, Wikistrat | Email Article | Permalink | Print Article 
Reader Comments (5)
A few comments.
1. The US might be dealing with a China that is (a) more democratic and (b) has tightly integrated its economy with South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa in the future. Thus the definition of "Greater China" may be more extensive than is apparent to the present generation of strategic thinkers. The Chinese may reap the advantage of "making Africa happen" - that advantage could carry them through most of the 21st Century.
2. India's demographic dividend may be more of a hindrance than an enabler. There are many Indias and the India with the most rapidly growing population profile is the least educated, the poorest and the least prepared to compete in a globalised world. India might spend most of the 21st Century dealing with this problem. These are not people you can easily put in a factory.
Having said that, India still has a very bright future.
3. About America and security - please read Clyde Perstowitz's article: Make Wealth not War in Asia. http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/27/make_wealth_not_war_in_asia.
I expect America to outgrow its juvenile fascination with drones once it becomes apparent that drones don't deliver the expected strategic outcomes (Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan etc). You'll either have to do SysAdmin or hand it over to someone else. You'll still rule the air and sea, but most of humanity lives on land.
Caution: If you cease to be a major economic player in most of the Gap, you'll end up being the Soviet Union of the 21st Century. All weapons and nothing else.
4. Don't count out Europe. Europe will still need to do something for a living (and grow economically). Africa and the Arab World are too close to be abandoned by Europe. expect a renewed push into the Gap by the Europeans in the medium term. (If they successfully deal with the euro crisis - expect a more confident and assertive Europe. A market maker. They play that game quite well).
5. You tend to dismiss Brazil, but having observed the scale of their ambitions in Lusophone Africa, I think they'll surprise you in a very big way. A Brazil with a $5 trillion economy is not going to behave like Japan.
Brazil has the potential of being a smaller United States. I can see them doing a small US in Africa (check out the scale of their investments in Guinea, Mozambique and Angola).
Anyway, familiarity breeds contempt!
6. We never know. Fifteen years ago it was all about America's unipolar moment, the dividends of post-Cold War peace and European opportunities. Today its India, Brazil and China. We might be in for a shock in 2030.
Enjoyed & inspired with all six Parts...happy to hear about another book to provide realistic perspective to an optimistic long term World strategy!
I wanted to hear the Q and A... , hope it went longer than 15 min, can it be posted?
The thing about good ideas is, they've already been tried.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136598/george-gavrilis/why-regional-solutions-wont-help-afghanistan
Summary: In the lead up to the November 2 Istanbul Conference on Afghanistan, the United States, UN, and NATO have called for regional approaches to the country's economic and security problems. But those neighbors are either uninterested in helping or actively working to undermine Kabul.
Ah yes, now that NATO and the US have announced their departure date, they finally start wanting regional solutions to cover their tracks after years of ignoring the neighbors or seeking to curb their influence.
And to our immense surprise after a decade of this behavior, the regional neighbors are not interested in taking our advice now.
Stunning, truly stunning.
So now we're left fuming over the "myth of regional harmony." Can I get a great big "duh!' on that one?
It's a competition and always has been. We just don't get to pick the winners up front.