Tuesday, October 27, 2009 at 12:46AM ARTICLE: In Saudi Arabia, a Campus Built as a 'Beacon of Tolerance', By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, October 9, 2009
Never underestimate the power of one great example.
More and more, we see signs for optimism on Saudi Arabia, yet another reason why going into Iraq made sense: we needed the fight next door to Al Qaeda's true target.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 at 12:43AM ARTICLE: U.S. and U.K. Say 'Special Relationship' Is Still Going Strong, By Mary Beth Sheridan and Karla Adam, Washington Post, October 12, 2009
Truth: when you have to proclaim it a "special relationship," it ain't so special anymore.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 at 12:38AM OP-ED: ... But Deng Is the Leader to Celebrate, By EZRA F. VOGEL, New York Times, October 3, 2009
Per my recent post: this 60th celebration celebrates the very things that stood in China's way (Mao, PLA, Party) , while largely ignoring that the true genius (Deng) consisted primarily in getting out of the way of the Chinese people.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 at 12:34AM FRONT PAGE: "Obama's Meeting With the Dalai Lama Is Delayed: Move Appears to Be A Nod to Chinese," by John Pomfret, Washington Post, 5 October 2009.
As readers of this blog can well attest, I'm not much for championing the Tibetan cause. There are many good reasons why interior, landlocked countries tend to be conquered by coastal powers.
So no, I have no problem with Obama not elevating the Dalai Lama to the level of a head of state, because the concept of "strategic reassurance" (Obama team phrase) is just fine--if a bit OBE.
Prior to the financial crisis, I think you could have easily characterized most of Bush-Cheney's policies on China as falling into this category, with the rest trending in the direction of containment/hedging.
But once the financial crisis reveals to the rank-and-file citizen--on both sides--the reality of the financial balance of terror (Summers' term), I think we move beyond this requirement. Geithner is operating at a level way beyond strategic reassurance--as he should be. I think Clinton has moved beyond it too.
A truly bold Obama frames his Af-Pak choice as part of this relationship--sort of a strategic responsibility tack with Beijing.
Why? Because if we leave or go light (not that much difference), China will be among those stuck with the strategic responsibility--simply as a matter of geography.
As usual, the term becomes popular just as the dynamic is OBE.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009 at 12:32AM OP-ED: "No Rush to Escalate," by E.J. Dionne, Washington Post, 5 October 2009.
We are treated to historian Robert Dallek's counsel to Obama at a recent White House gathering: "War kills off great reform movements."
I would say that war tends to constrain them, but that they die for reasons more prosaic (they cost a lot) and more complex (genuine domestic opposition directly on point) than simply that. I mean, saying WWII kills off the New Deal is awfully simplistic. And if Vietnam killed LBJ's agenda, then he still got through a tremendous amount. So did Nixon for that matter.
But FDR's global reforms, I would argue, dwarfed his domestic ones. So did Nixon's. Only LBJ had a strong domestic focus, with Vietnam as the distraction (quick: name ANY foreign policy initiatives with LBJ outside of Vietnam!).
Played correctly, Obama could perform at a Nixonian level, in terms of reshaping global relationships, and Af-Pak is a perfectly good vehicle for that--if you view in something bigger than the myopic terms of the current public debate.
My point: the true visionaries have bold reform agendas both at home and abroad. It's not an either-or choice.
We can only hope the inside debate operates at a higher level, but as a rule, I make no assumptions. The "West Wing" show had great writers; reality tends to be disappointing.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 6:26AM 
This week, "The Thinkers 50" Web site named their 50 most influential business thinkers in the world. Atop its list stood the Indian-born, University of Michigan professor, C.K. Prahalad -- a visionary whose analysis of the market opportunities to be found in the emerging global middle class is must reading for anyone seriously given to strategic thought in the age of globalization.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 1:41AM POST: Support for the Troops, By David Brooks AND Bob Herbert, The Conversation, October 22, 2009
If I'm not mistaken, I've blogged Brooks saying similar things in the past (or maybe it was just Ferguson and Boot).
Anyway, here's the relevant bit:
David Brooks: I'm not sure it's necessary to have national mobilizations a la World War II, but I can think of a few things that might spread the sacrifice around. First, we need a civilian nation-building academy. The military dominates nation-building efforts in part because the State Department contributions are pathetic. In Afghanistan the so-called civilian surge has been practically non-existent. We need to train people to do this kind of work -- to provide legal aid, police aid, agricultural aid and so on. We don't have to call it a colonial office, but we do need civilians who are willing to go to places like Afghanistan and do civil society building work.
(Thanks: Jeffrey Itell)
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 1:29AM ARTICLE: NATO Ministers Endorse Wider Afghan Effort, By THOM SHANKER and MARK LANDLER, New York Times, October 23, 2009
On this one, we must give it up for NATO for showing both leadership and backbone.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:55AM ARTICLE: In Dollar's Fall, Upside for U.S. Exports, By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ, New York Times, October 18, 2009
Good description of what happens with exports when you have a "weak" dollar, per a recent post of mine.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:50AM ARTICLE: The Next Nuclear Continent, By Chris Hildebrand, The Diplomatic Courier, October 20, 20092009
Another easy call from Great Powers, including the Russians in the aggressive lead.
Second, as globalization's great infrastructural build-out unfolds, shifting over time from the New Core East to the Gap as a whole, we're clearly going to see a major increase in the role of nuclear power. Africa, home to about one-fifth of the world's uranium, wants to move aggressively in this direction. The West and Russia, fearful of proliferation of nuclear weapons-grade uranium, push to create a Core-dominated consortium that will oversee the entire fuel-enrichment cycle for any country willing to outsource that process, in effect asking Gap countries to assume an energy-dependency relationship. Several proposals are on the table, and while there is a chance of competing rule sets fighting it out over time (e.g., competing U.S. and Russian systems), the odds are that the Core will come to some agreement that Gap countries fi nd acceptable. But the clear upshot of all this will be that far more nuclear material will move along globalization's networks, only emphasizing the worldwide need for better real-time, pervasive monitoring systems. So again, a shift from Cold War deterrence to globalization-era transparency seems inevitable.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:44AM MARKETPLACE: "Defense Firms Gird for Fight to Find Profits," by August Cole, Wall Street Journal, 22 October 2009.
Old theme of mine: actual war is a bitch for the defense industry, because operational costs build up while unit buys of new platforms decline in response.
So now everybody finds themselves competing fiercely for fast-growing markets in UAVs and cyber security.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:37AM ARTICLE: Winning the counter-insurgency endgame, By Sushant K Singh & Nitin Pai, Pragati, October 2009
Interesting possibility: India gets its own SysAdmin capability internally through its fight with the Naxalites.
But then, remember that we got all our original COIN understanding in the decades-long Sioux and Indian Wars of the Wild West.
(Thanks: Lexington Green and Tat Banerjee)
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:21AM INTERNATIONAL: "Migration and development: The aid workers who really help; How much do migrants, by sending remittances and other means, act as catalysts for development in the countries they leave behind?" The Economist, 10 October 2009.
Study of 200m migrant workers and their impact on home countries: it is huge and benign.
First off is the obvious flow of wages.
World Bank says guest workers send home $328B last years, whereas OECD countries (Old Core) managed $120B in official developmental aid (ODA). India got $52B, way more than the foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from the rest of the world.
Does this money go to the poorest in those states?
No, it goes to the families of the most ambitious and hardest-working and the ones willing to take the most chances and sacrifice more than others by working abroad.
The key thing? Virtually no corruption along the way, compared to the waste of ODA and the graft in FDI.
Moreover, when disaster strikes, this money moves one helluva lot faster than ODA or disaster funds.
Even cooler, some Latin American states are kicking in matching funds if the remittances are directed at infrastructure development.
Cooler still: some OECD countries are talking about bundling ODA that way.
All this happens because 3% of the world decides to work abroad.
Imagine what happens when those number rise?
What does this tell us? Globalization is very good.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:13AM FULL-PAGE AD: "Grow with Georgia," The Economist, 10 October 2009.
QUARTER-PAGE AD: "Grow with Georgia," Wall Street Journal, 12 October 2009.
Just remind me of those Macedonia ads that I described in Great Powers.
Economist one says "Put a free industrial zone on the shortest route between China and Europe and just watch it grow," Dr. Khater Massaad, CEO of Rakia and Chairman of Rakia Georgia FIZ.
So a pretty simply and smart sale there: location, location, location.
The WSJ version: "The world's second greatest reserves of hydroelectric energy are in these mountains and 80% of it remains untapped."
Nice to see.
[Ed. Not sure if it's the same outfit, but here's Invest in Georgia.]
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:10AM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: "Climate change and warfare: Cool heads or heated conflicts? A lesson from history on how to prevent climate-induced wars," The Economist, 10 October 2009.
Fascinating study by some Irish institute in Dublin: they look at history from 1000 through 2000 and seek correlations between weather changes and wars.
What they find is a bit counter-intuitive to the whole global warming debate: through 1800, the only strong correlation was that cold spells were followed by more warfare. Why? Theory is crop loss.
Then comes industrialization and the link between weather change and warfare disappears, yet another organic link severed.
So what does this tell us about the future? Be wary of droughts leading to crop loss and plan accordingly. Best antidote? Bio-engineered crops that are resistant to droughts and the pests that accompany them.
So if you want to avoid climate change "wars," support bio advances in ag.
Monday, October 26, 2009 at 12:07AM BRIEFING: "Smart grids: Wiser wires; Information technology can make electricity grids less wasteful and much greener. Businesses have lots of ideas and governments are keen, but obstacles remain," The Economist, 10 October 2009.
The greatest engineering achievement of the 20th century? America's National Academy of Engineering said in 200 that it was "the vast networks of electrification," which made everything else possible.
But here's the rub: cars and everything else mechanical and computing have gotten so much more sophisticated with each passing decade, whereas our electrical nets basically have the same set-up and technology. Most utilities don't know if the grid is down--unless consumers call them up.
So what is the "smart grid"? All sorts of IT, such as sensors, digital meters and an Internet-like comms net that makes everything "smart" in the sense that information can be derived from and through them and transmitted over them.
It would thus make energy efficiencies possible and allow new networking opportunities, like electric cars and distributed generation (many sites all over the grid generating power instead of just one or a few main stations).
Plenty of money in the stimulus packages set aside for this, and over $1B in VC money in start-ups. Most promising is the joining up of IT firms like Cisco and IBM with major energy providers.
But the larger point: a smart grid should boost technology and engineering overall just like the original grids did. Lots of details to be worked out, naturally, but the point is the overall thrust and so many new players to the game seeing opportunity.
This is good.
Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 1:58PM + Antiwar.com linked So Iran Caved on the Bomb. What Now?
+ ReyakaranNews reprinted it.
+ So did Roy Mitsuoka.
+ SCHotline wrote quite a bit about Tom.
+ Newmark's Door linked The Real Trouble with Afghanistan and Obama and I liked this comment:
I am privileged to have a Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy Decoder Ring and, trust me, Esquire is not a VRWC member.
+ Personal Liberty Digest used the wrong verb for Tom in the following attribution:
"China is looking for a landline connection to the Persian Gulf or endeavoring to create a 'string of pearls' chain of naval facilities between itself and the Strait of Hormuz," warns Thomas P. M. Barnett in his just published book, Great Powers, America and the World After Bush.
+ HG's World linked Why Joe Biden's War Plan Spells the Rebirth of Al Qaeda.
+ And linked 10 Reasons Why Sanctions on Iran Won't Work.
+ Internet Anthropologist Think Tank linked Why Joe Biden's War Plan Spells the Rebirth of Al Qaeda.
+ So did Kathianne.
+ Will you vote for the Israel to become the 51st State in the USA, and for Jerusalem to become the new Capital? Tom was referenced, though not by name.
+ evstifeev listed GP (but 'why' is in Cyrillic).
+ Guesswork Theory reviewed the TED video.
+ 21st Century Waves linked Chinese parades show lack of confidence.
+ Social Node referenced Tom on connectivity.
+ Asian Security & US Politics Blog referenced PNM.
+ Global Markets reprinted Seeing China's Present Through America's Past.
+ Politics: Drop's Two Cents calls Tom 'must read'.
+
IronWil CS quoted Tom on security.
+ Internet Anthropologist Think Tank linked Shocking Iranian nuke admission!
+ The DOD Energy Blog linked The redefinition of air power.
+ The Interpreter linked The most pathetic thing Krauthammer has ever written.
+ Undiplomatic linked Obama's Nobel--on second thought.
+ So did Delaware Libertarian linked The Real Trouble with Afghanistan and Obama.
+ New Yorker in DC
linked Obama's Nobel Says 'Thank You, America'.
Sunday, October 25, 2009 at 6:19AM ARTICLE: Families say flu scare comes with a dose of craziness, By Donna St. George, Washington Post, October 25, 2009
ARTICLE: Back where virus started, new scrutiny of pig farming, By David Brown, Washington Post, October 25, 2009
Thinking back to the presidential study that I wrote about in Esquire:
Half of America contracts H1N1? That one seems on target.
But the 30k (low)-versus-60k (mid)-versus 90k (high) death rates for this season?
Obama declares a national emergency on 100 or so child deaths and 1000 overall and we're already past the alleged peak of 15 Oct, which now is being moved back by many experts (as the "wave" keeps expanding). Plus, those totals seem to draw upon deaths going back across the entire year vice just this fall wave (tell me if I'm wrong, because I haven't yet found a good timeline of deaths in the U.S.).
Again, on the spread, I'm buying it, but the death rate just isn't there. At this rate, the numbers would suggest we get our usual 25k-30k with seasonal and a slight bump with H1N1, but not one anyone would have noticed absent the news--unless 1k through the end of October somehow increases 30-to-50 fold over the next 3-4 months (which would certainly impress me). Docs are saying the current high spread is mostly H1N1, but also some of another strain, presumably less important/more normal.
Is my math all wrong on this? Because unless we see thousands dying per week, I don't see how even the low total (roughly equal to seasonal, so a doubleplusbad overall season) is possible.
A day after the piece was published, I'm in with my regular doc getting a physical for international adoption purposes, and he says it'll all be a lot of wasted motion--the H1N1 effort, because the death totals will be miniscule and we'll look back in hindsight and say, "Could we have made a better effort on something elsewhere?"
As a security guy, I'd still stick with the logic that says, "Take it as a dry run for something truly bad, as any practice is good practice." I mean, check out the map and see that H1N1 has spread, just like most quick-spreading things, far more heavily in the Core than in the Gap (no big surprise, as Gap has only 1/3rd of humanity, plus that much less connectivity/reporting/travel). So, again, it's worth practicing against.
Especially since all that rising connectivity in the Core means more and more mixing (from the pig farming cite above):
What worries virologists is the mixing of human and swine flu strains -- or, worse, human, swine and bird strains. That can lead to "reassortment," in which strands of genetic material are exchanged to yield a new virus, often with behavior not seen in its parents. Those features can include higher contagiousness, rapid growth, the ability to infect the lungs and, most important, an unfamiliar appearance to the immune system.
Reassortment is rare, and it is even rarer when the product is a strain that can spread like wildfire. That is one reason influenza pandemics occur only a few times a century. (The last one was in 1968.)
But, having said all that, Dr. (No) Bullington is looking pretty accurate for now.
Having written the piece because it seemed sensible to take a presidential study seriously, my natural skepticism now kicks in on the long-term impact. Why? Same as with Y2K and all "peak" freak-out projections: the predictions on the interdependence and connectivity all seem logical enough, but the assumptions of system fragility leading to death rates/instability are overblown. Why? I guess we're just not as clueless and fragile as experts think.
But, as always, there's the element that says, "Better to warn and overwhelm with effort and swim past with relative ease than simply sit back and think it all works out."
It's just that, in the end, I think we're going to have to admit that this whole thing ends up proving more resilience than vulnerability, for all the usual reasons.
I know we like to freak out, and I'm sure there's some evolutionary advantage, but there are also solid reasons why we've grown so numerous and dominant as a species.
Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 1:17AM Heavy Duty Dialogue
'10
The Next Decade in the Commercial Vehicle Industry
January 18, 2010
The Mirage
Las Vegas, Nevada
Heavy Duty Dialogue '10, "The Next Decade in
The Commercial Vehicle Industry", will feature an outstanding fleet executive
panel discussion, with Jerry Moyes, chairman and CEO, Swift Transportation, Pat
Quinn, president and co-chairman of USXpress, and Jim O'Neal, president,
O&S Trucking and moderated by Linda Longton, senior vice president/Editorial and
Research, Randall-Reilly.
This panel, made up of some of the most
respected executives in the industry, will take a forward look at global transportation
strategies, tackling weighty industry topics such as government regulations, highway
congestion, new vehicles and technologies, as well as globalization, market consolidation
and intermodal affects on the commercial vehicle industry.
Other topics and speakers for HD Dialogue '10
include; world views from Dr. Thomas PM Barnett of Enterra Solutions and Juergen
Reers of Roland Berger Strategy Consulting; megatrends from Derek Kaufman of C3
Network, Sandeep Kar of Frost and Sullivan, Jim Mele of Fleet Owner Magazine;
industry, financial market trends
and forecasts from Eli Lustgarten of Longbow Research, Bill Strauss of the Chicago
Federal Reserve, Peter Nesvold of Lazard, Eric Starks of FTR, Stuart MacKay of
MacKay and Co, Kate Miller of Newport Communications, and other invited speakers.
Heavy
Duty Dialogue '10, an exceptional business conference strategically developed
for executives in the global and domestic commercial vehicle supplier industry,
will be held at the Mirage in Las Vegas, Nev., on Monday, Jan 18, 2010.
HDD'10 immediately precedes Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week '10.
Register
for Heavy Duty Dialogue by clicking here!
Register NOW for Reduced Room Rates at the Mirage. Make
your reservations before October 31, 2009 for room rates of $145. Hurry, this offer expires
on October 31st! Rates rise to $165 on November 1st.
Click
here to make your Mirage reservations TODAY!
Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association
10 Laboratory Drive
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
919.406.8847
For more details,
contact us at info@hdma.or
Tom says:
Once again I play Vegas--the Mirage along with the Beatles.After
studying all things Elvis (I am finishing Peter Guralnick's definitive
2-volume bio), I am psyched to be back on the Strip!Especially once I get that hunka-hunka infected tissue out of my right maxillary sinus.Then to work on my karate moves!
Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 12:26AM FRONT PAGE: "India Engineers A Market: Its Poor," by Eric Bellman, Wall Street Journal, 20 October 2009.
This, to me, is the real ground zero of India's business ingenuity, the stuff that will truly change the world for the better.
"Reverse innovation" examples cited: the Nano from Tata (mais oui), a tiny stove that avoids the usual wood fuel (pellets and a "gasifer technology" (beats the hell out of me, but indoor pollution is a HUGE Gap killer), and a refrigerator disguised as a cooler!
Some truly brilliant stuff, and the future of the emerging global middle class.
Frontiers to be conquered in the best way possible.
