Tom: the KatPol interview

Here's the interview Tom did with KatPol, a Hungarian mil-blog: Interview with an American geostrategist. Good questions including some focused on Eastern Europe. Check it out.

Amory Lovins on Charlie Rose

INTERVIEW: A Conversation with Amory Lovins, Charlie Rose,

Charlie Rose talks with Amory Lovins and Daniel Yergin, a great pair for intelligent conversation on energy. Worth a listen.

(Thanks: Terence Hill)

The passed-off danger within the global economy

ARTICLEL: “Hot and bothered: Despite strict capital controls, China is being flooded by the biggest wave of speculative capital ever to hit an emerging economy,” The Economist, 28 June 2008, p. 79.

The nature of globalization today is that money will pretty much go anywhere for better use, so downturns in one region or regions means great opportunity for others.

But too much of a good thing—even money—is a bad thing.

And so we get another lesson in all this connectivity: momentum has to go somewhere.

Those religious Chinese

RESOURCES: Religion in China, Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, July 10, 2008

For those of us who believe the 21st century will be more religious than the 20th, and that it will be a very good thing, check out the Pew Forum report on religion in China.

(Thanks: Neo-Traditional Librarian)

This week's column (#112)

Next president to find limited military options

Recent diplomatic efforts by the White House with both North Korea and Iran -- nuclear newbies and remaining members of the "axis of evil" -- strike many as the Bush administration's desperate grab for legacy. But I see a different strategic reality emerging, one that will steer the next president's course whether he likes it or not.

Due to Afghanistan and Iraq, our military is essentially tied-down on a near global basis. That means America cannot place large numbers of boots on the ground anywhere right now, and to do so with any speed would be monumentally difficult.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

The chicken (happiness) gets you the egg (democracy)

ARTICLE: “Will Democracy Make You Happy?” by Eric Weiner, Foreign Policy, March/April 2008, p. 57.

Simple stuff but wonderful point: people get generous when they’re happy and selfish when they’re not. If you want political pluralism (the ultimate in generosity), make people economically happy first.

Democracy, as I like to say, is a dish best served cold.

Good example: fairly democratic Eastern Europe not as happy as booming but authoritarian China. Not rocket science but simply Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

If economics are roughly equal, then democracy is a happiness boost, but you have to get all such economics roughly equal first.

When people cite culture as the real roadblock, all they really cite is the time-lapse involved with encouraging abundance. So no, if you’ve been poor forever and your conservative culture is built around surviving that poverty, you’re probably not “ready” for democracy. But the abundance-changing-culture dynamic is a lot faster than most people think. Poor countries tend to be very young countries, so the generational turnover is rapid: fast forward a bit and pretty soon a big chunk of your people can’t even remember the bad old times, much less adhere to the accompanying bad old customs/rules.

The only election stuff that matters

Zogby Electoral College Update:
Obama 273, McCain 146, with 119 Votes Too Close to Call

As stated before, this sort of analysis (however you value Zogby) is the only election stuff that matters.

Obama increases his standing vis-a-vis McCain, moving two states from red to purple.

Spoke at "Serviam" celebration sponsored by Blackwater Worldwide

Serviam being a stability-ops (private sector) industry mag.

Spoke at Ronald Reagan Building amphitheater, which is a gorgeous place (visually and acoustically) to perform yesterday afternoon to an invited audience. Then cocktail party in rotunda up top. Previous night was dinner with Blackwater senior execs and magazine publisher.

Interesting evolutions at Blackwater, moving upstream (I might say) in stability ops (less at pointy end and more into logistics & conflict prevention). Got to speak at length with president Gary Jackson, an intense but conversational guy who's very passionate about the biz (he's really upset over the lack of movement of food relief supplies in Haiti from port to people). These guys are running a business, but you see the real emotion, like with any former military, over badly run ops. They see the problem and know full well what the solution entails.

Latest talk in DC

Amphitheater in Ronald Reagan Building DC where I spoke yesterday at Blackwater-sponsored event for new magazine on stability ops called Serviam.

Obama and McCain

ARTICLE: Berlin Rally Is Off-Limits for Embassy Workers, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, July 24, 2008; Page A06

ARTICLE: McCain Still Waiting for His Turn at Good Luck, By Michael D. Shear, Washington Post, July 24, 2008; Page A06

Obama's biggest danger now is his own potential hubris ("not a man but a movement"), but that show in Berlin WAS stunning. He really does look not just presidential but like a world leader for a world desperately looking for one. By contrast, McCain seems like such a small, safe choice

What do we learn from southern Europe’s experiments on immigration?

ARTICLE: “Spain, Grappling With Illegal Immigrants, Tries Forgiveness,” by Jason DeParle, New York Time, 10 June 2008, p. A1.

In last two decades, the article points out, key southern European states (Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece) have granted well over a dozen amnesties among them.

Do such amnesties make these countries magnets for immigrants?

Well duh!

But when everyone is decrying the population decline, what exactly is the option?

As for Spain’s newfound prosperity, the link is undeniable.

But just as expected, after any big infusion of outsiders, the first slowdown creates a backlash (the oldest story in America), so there is yin and yang.

But yeah, any magnet effect should be welcomed in this day and age.

You’re going to have the immigration absorption problems no matter what. The question is, would you like to tackle under conditions of boom or bust?

Saudis/Arabs following Chinese lead on equity crops

ARTICLE: “Saudis plan to grow crops overseas: Kingdom in talks with five countries; Effort to secure food supplies,” by Andrew England, Financial Times, 13 June 2008, p. 3.

China’s been pursuing this for a while, according to reports, so I presume some example effect here, which may or may not be true but is worth supposing, I suppose.

Still, the mirror-imaging here of the Kingdom proposing “strategic reserves” is telling, yes?

So Rising Asia’s demands exacerbate the Middle East’s “addiction” to foreign food just like our “addiction” to foreign energy.

Being who they are, no surprise that the Saudis want equity crops, or stalks in the ground that they own directly. Bit of a chimera, though. When push comes to shove, just watch the export limits get slapped on the market by the suppliers for reasons of internal stability. I mean, within limits, you can hedge your future costs through futures contracts, but you’re never going to secure food with any degree of confidence for the truly bad times. It just doesn’t work.

If you’re wealthy, risk comes in price, not supply, so such ultimate hedging is an illusion. Hell, trying to lock in long-term bilat prices won’t work either, because under the right market conditions, the locals will break the deals and tell you to go screw yourself because they can get a better price elsewhere. Happens all the time in energy (watching Russia today), so what makes anyone think food will be immune?

Still, learning curves must be scaled. This is part and parcel of the journey from Gap to Core.

A natural but welcome tension in micro-loans

GLOBAL BUSINESS: “The Big Trouble In Small Loans: As large banks pile into microfinance, will profits get ahead of people?” by Barbara Kiviat, Time, 16 June 2008, p. G1.

Beautiful little experiments in development almost always succeed, because special effort is made and the scope is limited. The trick is always evolving the small-is-beautiful answer into something scalable.

This is where microfinance is heading now. You can say that the big banks will automatically ruin the previously proven answer, but that answer was just about showing the potential market and not actually exploiting it. Eventually, the main goal must be addressed: serving the underserved market.

For now, the big global banks will concentrate on the easiest markets (low hanging fruit), bypassing the harder spots, but that’s only natural and expecting otherwise is missing the point: a critical mass is required for this to work large-scale and commercial. So you see big players concentrate on Eastern Europe and Latin America and the bottom billion of Asia and Africa are still left behind—for now.

There are natural and proper concerns about creating bad debt, but since the original problem was the inability to incur debt (no access to credit), at some point you have to subsume the “social impact” thinking under the scale requirements.

Will there be scandal down the road? Expect it. Anything popular always gets abused.

But it beats the alternative.

The shift by Old Core carmakers to New Core car markets continues apace

ARTICLE: “In India, a New Detroit: Nissan and Others Add Factories in Emerging Markets,” by Martin Fackler, New York Times, 26 June 2008, p. C1.

The big 3 of Japan (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) have stuck to the Old Core for a while, but now, “in a radical shift, Japan’s staid Big Three are plowing into exotic terrain, from Saharan Africa to the former Soviet Union to the scorching plains of southern India.”

Key line:

The aggressive moves by traditionally cautious automakers are the latest signpost that the epicenter of the global auto industry it shifting increasingly from California to somewhere between Canton and Calcutta.

I think the CA reference is more to standards than production, but you get the point: demand rules.

Few yielding to the many

ARTICLE: Sen. Collins: Navy scrapping stealth destroyer, By DAVID SHARP, AP, July 23, 2008

ARTICLE: 'Boeing to Buy Insitu In Unmanned-Vehicle Push,' By August Cole, Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2008

The few-and-the-absurdly-expensive (Leviathan) yielding to the many-and-the-cheaper(-and increasingly-unmanned).

(Thanks: Pete Johnson

Another sign of al Qaeda’s limits on soft power

OP-ED: “Fight Terror With YouTube: Why Al Qaeda can’t make the leap to the more interactive web,” by Daniel Kimmage, New York Times, 26 June 2008, p. A23.

Like an authoritarian entity, al Qaeda wants its walled-garden when it comes to the web: environments and messages it can control.

That gets harder over time for al Qaeda in theory, and yet the Internet restrictions imposed by authoritarian Middle East governments plays into its hands, so says this RFE/RL analyst.

His answer? Push connectivity and let the P2P generation sort it out on its own:

There is a simple lesson here: unfettered access to a free Internet is not merely a goal to which we should aspire on principle, but also a very practical means of countering Al Qaeda. As users increasingly make themselves heard, the ensuing chaos will not be to everyone’s liking, but it may shake the online edifice of Al Qaeda’s totalitarian ideology.

Connectivity is the cause for the friction, but also the force that ultimately wins.

Some sense of internal debate in North Korea

INTERNATIONAL REPORT: “North Korea Razes Nuclear Tower, but Intent Is Less Apparent: Hints of shifting ties between reformers and conservatives,” by Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times, 28 June 2008, p. A5.

Glass-half-empty says Pyongyang destroyed a nuke tower it no longer needs. Glass-half-full says reform-minded civilian leaders may be getting somewhere with the hard-line military leaders.

Tell me this doesn’t sound familiar vis-à-vis Iran (from a South Korean expert on North Korea):

North Korea wanted the United States to come to the negotiating table, and since the United States did not want to come voluntarily, North Korea used the nuclear card.

Pyongyang knows it needs to modernize, but can’t stand the idea of being dictated to by either South Korea or the U.S., but they need the peace to feel confident enough to go the China reform route, and until they get it, the situation seems somewhat frozen. Meanwhile, Beijing is pressing Pyongyang in a passive-aggressive manner: denying bits and pieces of economic support so as to push the internal dialogue along.

Can this work out? I would love to see it. Because anything that got North Korea calm enough to reform economically would lead to its slow-motion demise, which is how South Korea prefers to see it unfold.

There will always be a “cause celebre” for al Qaeda

ARTICLE: “Pakistan Is Said To Be Attracting More Insurgents: U.S. Officials Note Rise; Seen as Bolstering of Al Qaeda—Setbacks in Iraq May Be Spur,” by Eric Schmitt, New York Times, 10 July 2008, p. A1.

Spray one apartment and the bugs move over to the next. Wherever there’s the least resistance or the most opportunity, you find them clustered.

The Anbar awakening ruins al Qaeda’s long-term chances in Iraq, and so the clustering refocuses on Pakistan.

With the surge succeeding in Iraq and Bush finally coming around to rapprochement with Iran, our re-direct on Afghanistan/Pakistan seems well underway for the next president.

Duh! There’s real money to be made!

GLOBAL BUSINESS: “The Green Link Uniting Old Foes: China wants clean tech; Japan has it to sell. Why necessity could trump animosity,” by Michael Schuman, Time, 14 July 2008, p. G1.

Good, sensible piece.

What must China do to attract such technology?

Increase protection within its system for intellectual property—plain and simple.

Development forces pollution forces better IP rules forces rapprochement with Japan, which in turn gives Japan a clear leadership role in an age when it feels like globalization is making it irrelevant on some level.

Good stuff all around.

Tom in Global Times

Global Times ran a front page story about China Security's 'Debating China's Future', which Tom was a part of.

Read the original version (Chinese, pdf) and the translated English version (doc).