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    The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Emily V. Barnett
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Monthly Archives

Entries from February 1, 2005 - February 28, 2005

6:22PM

Star Wars remains a great work of fiction

"Rocket Fails To Launch In Test Run: Third Straight Error For Missile Defense," by David Stout, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A11.


Yet another nifty failure of this close-to-$100-billion-boondoggle.


Where is our Tang!


And the real threat we face? $50 billion more over the next seven years.


Problem is, until we get better on SysAdmin, that price seems small to the one we pay for bad nation-building in Iraq.


But what would you rather do? Export security or import insecurity?

6:22PM

The vanishing girls of China

"As Girls ëVanish,í Chinese City Battles Tide of Abortions," by Howard D. French, New York Times, 17 February 2005, p. A3.


I remember our first ultrasound with our oldest. Finding out she was a girl was fantastic, because a female hadnít been born in my family in more than three decades.


Alas, in too much of the world, but especially in China and India, the ultrasound is used to weed out unwanted girls.


Our Vonne Mei lives because somehow she escaped this technology or her parents or mother simply valued her too much to let that happen. Every adopting parent wants to believe itís the latter at work, but mostly itís the former.


The girls who really vanish are the ones who never see the light of day. Vonne Mei isnít ìlost,î but rather connected to a family whoís comparative advantage is that it knows the most essential truth about life: The world moves on a womanís hips. The world moves and it swivels and bops. The world moves on a womanís hips. The world moves and it jiggles and hops.


Itís the world of light, all right. Gotta open our eyes up!

6:21PM

Who shouldnít define whatís a threat to the United States

"U.S. Aides Cite Worry on Qaeda Infiltration From Mexico," by Douglas Jehl, New York Times, 17 February 2005, p. A10.

"War Helps Recruit Terrorists, Hill Told: Intelligence Officials Talk of Growing Insurgency," by Dana Priest and Josh White, Washington Post, 17 February 2005, p. A1.


I always love it when the intel chiefs testify on the Hill, because itís like manna from heaven for fear-mongers.


Yes, itís a scary world and yes, connectivity requires solid code, otherwise it exposes you to danger thatóat first glanceóseems worse than disconnectedness (except itís clear from human history that the connected thrive, while the disconnected dive). So yeah, to connect up Iraq invites a lot of short-term danger but ultimately the resulting connectivity makes for a safer world. If we listened to the intell agencies, weíd be too afraid to ever do anything, because their vote is always ìNo, donít do it.î


But you know what? The intell agencies donít define who our enemies are. Neither does the military.


We the people get to decide who our enemies are. The defense community is only in charge of the ìhow,î not the ìwhen,î not the ìwhat,î not the ìwhere,î and sure as hell not the ìwhy.î


Never look to the intel agencies to tell you what to be afraid of, because then youíll be afraid of damn near everything.

6:17PM

One of those spooked-out (or is it burned-out?) days

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 17 February 2005

I was told by many people that when I lost my regular day-time job there would be days (or, more likely, nights) when I would get very anxious about the future. No matter how confident I might feel on any one day, these moments would come, I was told.


I'm feeling that tonight.


Why?


Don't know, really. Started day taking kids to school and feeling very positive about that (too much travel right now, so happy to help around home).


Then off to meeting at local consulting firm that specializes in really cool table-top wargaming. It's called Alidade and it's run by Jeff Cares, a retired Navy commander. They want to run a Shrink the Gap 05 game in the spring with dozens of players spread out over teams (Old Core, New Core, Seam States, Gap). Their design is clever and cool, and it should be a lot of fun. I will present briefs to kicks things off and provide nighttime entertainment, and with my New Rule Sets Projects LLC partners I'll play Control for the game. All in all, should be fascinating, and frankly, should make me feel awfully good about my prospects.


Meanwhile, I have two prospective assignments from Esquire, doing stories on two very different subjects in the government: one would be quite anonymous and the other would be anything but. Two very different challenges, two possibly fantastic pieces. Gotta make me feel good, yes?


And I am feeling good. Prospects seem very bright for the consultancy, and the speaking gigs keep rolling in. Book is done in terms of first draft. Everyone seems healthy, and I seem kinda funky.


Bit of it is the change stuff: like figuring out healthcare (thank God I already scored a large life insurance), taxes.


Some of it is just the bewilderment of being so damn busy without a job!


Some of it is just the hard allergies I seem to get in winter nowadays.


Some of it is just the fear of all that travel over next three weeks.


But in the end, when I really think about leaving the college, I realize I have almost no feeling whatsoever, other than I miss a few people.


Searching my skull a bit more, especially after nice phonecon with Art Cebrowski, also recently released under his own recognizance from a federal work program called DoD, and I think I have it!


I really need a vacation. The stress of all the change and powering through all that while writing 125,000 words of manuscript has left me seriously impaired--like a long football season or something. I just feel sort of beat-up, and unhealthy, and tired.


I could really use about two weeks of nothing, then about 6 weeks of dicking around the house, doing small things,and then a couple of weeks to organize my new home office--all the time doing lotsa workouts and reading for pleasure.


Then, I would be ready for the travel I will engage in over the next three weeks, replete with speeches after speeches.


Oh, and I have to edit that book over those three same weeks, plus the three weeks that follow (which feature no travel, thank God).


Hmmmm.


But, I feel good about the book, and the travels should be interesting and fun, and I won't miss any of Kev's BB games or practices, and the healthcare will work out, and I'll start working out when the travel's done, and prospects are good, and health is fine across family, and I'm feeling so burned out I have nothing left to say.


Not true.


Tomorrow I get up, roar like a lion, pay the bills and make the healthcare applications. I drive the kids to school. I something something. I go on class outing with Jerry's preschool (skating, no less), then home for something something more. Then I watch entire single season of some obscure Japanese anime vampire series with kids, while I type my way through a slew of stories to blog from this week's newspapers.


And living in that moment should be okay. I should hug everybody, return every smile, pet the dog and cat, know everything will be alright: that Warren will edit, that I'll write these articles, that the game will be cool, that the travel will be fine, that the consultancy will work, that everyone's health will be good, and that I will learn to live those moments one by one and avoid the fear of expectations.


Here endeth the prayer. . ..

5:01PM

On the masthead of Esquire

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 February 2005

Found out today when I picked up current March issue in BWI Airport. Very exciting to see it. Expected it would take longer to appear.


Even cooler news: Mark Warren (Executive Editor) said that Esquire's webmaster was preparing to make a link from their site to my weblog.


Here's the new masthead entry on "Contributing Editors":



Ted Allen, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Andrew Chaikivsky, Larry Doyle, Ted C. Fishman, Andrea Immer, Chris Jones, Chuck Klosterman, Ken Kurson, Robert Kurson, Andy Langer, Kim Masters, Bucky McMahon, Adrienne Miller (LITERARY EDITOR), Phil Patton, Charles P. Pierce, Martha Sherrill, Barry Sonnenfeld, Daniel Voll, David Wondrich, Stacey Grenrock Woods, Bill Zehme.


John Mariani FOOD & TRAVEL CORRESPONDENT

George Foreman SPIRITUAL ADVISOR

John Mayer CULTURAL ADVISOR


Andrew Chaikivsky is the great guy who wrote the original profile on me. Of the group, Barry Sonnenfeld the director ("Men in Black" movies probably his most famous recent ones) and John Mayer (singer) are probably most famous right now, though you gotta give it up to George Foreman (assuming that's the boxer we're talking about!?!?!).


Anyway, fun to spot. Made me feel a little less disconnected about having no steady day job!

5:00PM

Dear Mr. President, Here's How to Make Sense of Your Second Term, Secure Your Legacy, and, oh yeah, Create a Future Worth Living

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 February 2005

Spoke with Mark Warren by phone on drive home from airport, and he tells me that the Feb-issue article I wrote for them is now on their front page. Here's the direct link: http://www.esquire.com/features/articles/2005/050215_mfe_barnett_1.html. Very happy to see it online. Remember on the original PNM article, they never posted, so I did myself, and we were all surprised by the added bounce. So now they're learning and we all benefit from the additional exposure. Guess I'm changing the magazine just a tiny bit on that level.

4:56PM

Whirl-winded in DC/VA

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 February 2005

Back home after the whirlwind trip. Flew out yesterday morning at 8am, arriving in Baltimore-Washington International. Grabbed a Dollar and drove to Union Station in DC, where I parked. Short walk to Russell Senate building.


Nice old hearing room (385). Talk began at noon. We put the screen in the well and Services came with a funky little projector. Room set up for about 60 in all, and maybe another 20 against walls and sitting on the floor. Staffers, but a lot of other USG people there, plus some print media. Went 1:20 and took questions until 1:45. Signed about half-dozen books. Saw some staffers I recognized from last summer. May follow up down the road with actual Senators, but won't hold my breath on that one.


Toshiyuki Ito, staff correspondent from The Yomiuri Shimbun is waiting for me outside the hall. We walk and talk to Longsworth, a House building on other side of Mall. He does about 30 mins Q&A on global posture changes with basing, holding small recorder up to my face the whole time. He says he's about halfway through PNM and it's hard for him in English. So I tell him to read the Japanese edition and save some time! We part outside of Longsworth.


Up in Longsworth on 5th floor I do 30 min office call on freshman Rep. Geoff Davis, 4th of Kentucky. Former Ranger, no less. He had really liked PNM and wanted to meet me. His people had contacted me by email, so we had the sit-down. By some accounts this guy has more military experience than the rest of the frosh class combined, and it shows. Very personable and very knowledgable. He and I share a big interest on the growth of religion inside the Gap and New Core. Bid him goodbye at 3pm, knowing we'd meet again at dinner.


Then spent hour in cafe in basement of Longsworth (they have that whole underground network among all the buildings) with Dan Forrester of Sapient corp, who is doing research article on "change agents" in the government. I had given him a slew of names to chase earlier, and now he was interviewing me. I will probably use this piece as cite in Vol. II.


At 4pm I make office call on Rep. Steve Israel, from Long Island NY. About an hour with him on military matters, discussing a group of thinkers he's putting together. Guy also just set up "center aisle" caucus group to explore more civility between Dems and Reps, so let's just say he's both ambitious and idealistic, which means I like him from the start. This one also set up out of blue by email through staff. Israel just really liked the book. They asked when I might be back, and I told them mid-April for another speaking gig, so we may set something up for members, if possible. All in all, another impressive guy.


At 6:30 I have a drink with The New Rule Sets Project's Advisory Board in a fancy local restaurant called "The Monacle" on D Street behind Capitol. Places is crawling with Reps and Senators. Watch Diane Feinstein depart.


Our Advisory Board right now is one Kevin Billings, a very interesting and connected guy in DC who's private sector but knows his way around just about everywhere. Kevin had set up nice dinner for me, him, a staffer and four House Representatives. Geoff Davis was one. Ken Calvert (44th, CA) was another. Plus Gary Miller (42nd, CA) and Ed Royce (40th, CA). Also Calvert's Chief of Staff, Dave Ramey.


All very impressive guys, and all with an amazing grasp of US history, especially the Civil War. All had done a lot of travel around the world, meeting key players and really getting to know key countries in the Gap and New Core. Since this was a self-selected bunch (they all came to talk foreign affairs and security with me over the meal), I guess I shouldn't be surprised at the quality of their knowledge and experience. I'm certain not all Reps are that on-topic as these four are, but it sure made a really interesting 3 hours of fairly spirited discussion. These guys could talk about damn near anything you could name: energy, trade, mortgage rates in Mexico, Hernando DeSoto, etc. Pick a subject, and they knew something, usually connected to serious on-the-ground investigation on a congressional delegation trip. Again, I know all Reps aren't that solid and I was getting a skewed sample here, but I was impressed.


As I always say, you meet people in these positions and then walk away from the meeting either wondering how such a dumbass got a job like that or feeling pretty good that such smart people are in such important posts. This quartet left me feeling awfully solid about their four seats, at least. Hopefully, I'll get to interact with them all in the future. They all told some amazing stories of trips overseas and stuff they had done over their careers. I mean, these guys really get around. Royce just went to Sudan with Don Cheadle and the Rwandan hotelier (Paul Rusesabagina) he plays in the movie "Hotel Rwanda." Bit of a PR stunt? Sure. But anyone who's making that effort on Sudan certainly gets my pat on the back. Plus, he just seems like a very nice man who goes out of his way to do more than just talk about suffering inside the Gap. He offered me a lot of good questions, as they all did.


Only problem with dinner was that it ended at around 10:15 and I wasn't in my car until almost 11pm. Trick was, I had to get to hotel in Williamsburg to hit the hay, so driving until 1:30am.


Nice hotel there, though, with a Tempurpedic-like bed that almost made the drive worthwhile. I was there for panel this morning from 10-12 with 2-star USA Gen I met at Airlie House and lady analyst from Congressional Budget Office. Event was big conference of Programming Analysis and Evaluation division of Office of Secretary of Defense (the green eyeshade people who count the beans, and thus are very powerful on budgets). Our panel discussion was all about "calculating risk." It was a good session with good audience questions. I was a bit out of it on the sleep, but did reasonably well, keeping it lively. The host called it an "incredibly provocative" session at the end, so everyone seemed happy.


Then 3.5 hour drive to BWI to catch scary flight home to Providence (big storm here).


On way back in plane read March issue of Esquire. More on that in two next posts.


Fun trip, but exhausting. Still, great to see the book getting such play in high places, and the personal connectivity established was just fabulous.

11:39AM

Speaking on Hill tomorrow; sort of open to public

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 14 February 2005


Here is the blurb Sen. Richard Lugar's staff is sending out regarding my talk tomorrow.


I am so blown-off from book writing I am not even sure about what I'm doing tomorrow, except I think I'm meeting someone before the talk at noon, then a Japanese newspaper interview right after, then a Congressman, then an interview for a research project, then another Congressman, then I go to dinner with several Congressmen, then I drive to Williamsburg late at night, trying to find hotel.


Anyway, here's the blurb. Wish me luck. First time driving a Mac.



Security for a New Century 109th Congress

The Pentagon's New Map


When: Tuesday, February 15 at noon

Where: Russell Building, Room 385


Dr. Thomas Barnett, former professor at the Naval War College and author of The Pentagon's New Map, will join us for a discussion of his operating theory of the world - and a military strategy to accompany it. Dr. Barnett's new security paradigm can be summarized as "disconnectedness defines danger," while "connectivity" (networks, financial transactions, media flows, and collective security) underpins stability and rising standards of living. Addressing globalization's "ozone hole" defines the appropriate strategy in today's global security environment. How does this theory align with the U.S. strategy and objectives in the war against terrorism? What does this view mean for the role of the military? What additional tools are necessary to export connectivity and shrink the gap?


"Security for a New Century" is a bipartisan study group for Congress. We meet regularly with U.S. and international policy professionals to discuss the post Cold War and post 9/11 security environment. All discussions are off-the-record. It is not an advocacy venue. Please call 224-7560 for more information or write Libby_Turpen@Lugar.senate.gov.

11:34AM

Iran wins Iraqi election! Boo hoo cries the Post

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 14 February 2005

Good article in Post ("Iraq Winners Allied With Iran Are the Opposite of U.S. Vision," By Robin Wright, Washington Post Staff Writer, Monday, February 14, 2005; Page A08), which loves to stick it to Bush. I found the analysis rather doofy, though. Usually expect better out of Wright. She's poking a straw man here (ah, what was it again? Yes! Jeffersonian Democracy flying right out of Allawi hind-quarters!).


Here's the key paras:



But, in one of the greatest ironies of the U.S. intervention, Iraqis instead went to the polls and elected a government with a strong religious base -- and very close ties to the Islamic republic next door. It is the last thing the administration expected from its costly Iraq policy -- $300 billion and counting, U.S. and regional analysts say.


Yesterday, the White House heralded the election and credited the U.S. role. In a statement, President Bush praised Iraqis "for defying terrorist threats and setting their country on the path of democracy and freedom. And I congratulate every candidate who stood for election and those who will take office once the results are certified."


Yet the top two winning parties -- which together won more than 70 percent of the vote and are expected to name Iraq's new prime minister and president -- are Iran's closest allies in Iraq.


Thousands of members of the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite-dominated slate that won almost half of the 8.5 million votes and will name the prime minister, spent decades in exile in Iran. Most of the militia members in its largest faction were trained in Shiite-dominated Iran.


And the winning Kurdish alliance, whose co-leader Jalal Talabani is the top nominee for president, has roots in a province abutting Iran, which long served as its economic and political lifeline.



I don't know anyone who had his head on straight in DC who expected much better than this with the elections. Pretending the White House thought they'd end up with some secular regime hostile to Iran is just nonsense.


Now the Post is just catching up to the reality that drives my logic in the Esquire piece: Saddam is gone, we have our Big Bang rolling, but let's be real about tabling our winnings with regard to Iran.


Meanwhile, Friedman's rerunning his get-off-oil op-ed for like the 20th time. Really good stuff showing he's basically out of ideas since 9/11. He wants to be a serious thinker on security but he doesn't know how to be. So he shoots for the moon on economics, hoping it sounds really profound. It doesn't. It sounds like pie in the sky.


How much you wanna bet his upcoming tome on geopolitics goes on and on about his "geo-green" strategy?

11:25AM

Tightening some screws on Kim

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 14 February 2005

Good article in NYT ("U.S. Is Shaping Plan to Pressure North Koreans," By DAVID E. SANGER, 14 Feb 05, pulled off web).


Here are the opening paras:



In the months before North Korea announced that it possessed nuclear weapons, the Bush administration began developing new strategies to choke off its few remaining sources of income, based on techniques in use against Al Qaeda, intelligence officials and policy makers involved in the planning say.

The initial steps are contained in a classified "tool kit" of techniques to pressure North Korea that has been refined in recent weeks by the National Security Council. The new strategies would intensify and coordinate efforts to track and freeze financial transactions that officials say enable the government of Kim Jong Il to profit from counterfeiting, drug trafficking and the sale of missile and other weapons technology.



China lining up, saying harshest things yet about Kim. Japan getting tough with effective reverse-blockade of North Korean ships.


The Deadly Viper Assassination Squad is coming together.


And they said I was crazy!

11:15AM

MilitÊrfilosof: Farvel Dirty Harry (Another Danish Newspaper Interview)

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 14 February 2005

Here's a combo distillation of Wired article and quick interview with Danish paper. Reporter was Poul Hoi, and yeah, it's in Danish.


I think the title reads: Military Philosopher who's half Brett Favre and half Dirty Harry. Anyway, that's how I like to read it.


The paper is Berlingske Tidende, described as the leading Danish newspaper, and published in Copenhagen since 1749, making it is one of the oldest newspapers in the world.


Go here for the original post



MilitÊrfilosof: Farvel Dirty Harry


Af Poul H¯i


USA m opgive sin Dirty Harry-holdning i kampen mod terror. Slut med politibrutalitet og tortur. Ikke af hensyn til terroristerne eller menneskeretsorganisationer, men fordi holdningen i sidste ende kan f¯re til konflikter med Europa og Rusland, siger en af USAs f¯rende militÊrfilosoffer.


Amerikanerne elsker Dirty Harry.


De kan lide ideen om en ufordÊrvet kriminalbetjent, som sÊtter forbryderne til vÊgs og ikke spilder mange ord undervejs.


Nuvel, Harry har et lille problem med retsplejeloven, og det er formentlig godt, at han skyder forbryderne, for hans anholdelser og afh¯ringer vil ikke holde vand i en retssal. Men hvad S¯ren? Harry bryder reglerne, nÂr reglerne nÊrmest beder om at blive brudt, og mÂlet helliger midlerne.


Jo, amerikanerne kan lide Dirty Harry og ideen om Dirty Harry.


Men hvad sker der, nÂr denne kÊrlighed til en filmhelt ogs slÂr igennem i udenrigspolitikken? Og hos militÊret?


S er det ikke lÊngere helt s simpelt - og det er prÊcis, hvad der nu skaber problemer for USA.


Det fastslÂr den f¯rende amerikanske militÊrfilosof, Thomas Barnett.


Han fremlagde f¯rst sin kritik i magasinet Wired, og han uddyber den nu i et emailinterview med Berlingske Tidende.


Barnett er en af de tÊnkere, som for alvor influererer en ny generation af forsvarspolitikere og officerer. Han er professor p Naval War College, og hans bestseller fra sidste Âr, ªThe Pentagon's New Map´, fremlÊgger en sikkerhedspolitik og en militÊr strategi, som - skrev en anmelder - kan sikre ªdet andet store amerikanske Ârhundrede´.


Han er hverken h¯g eller due, nÊrmest - for nu at citere en dansk politiker - ugle. Han gÂr ind for en aggressiv udenrigspolitik, nÂr det er n¯dvendigt, men f¯rst og fremmest gÂr han ind for en klog udenrigspolitik, som uden un¯dvendige konflikter fastholder den amerikanske overmagt.


Og i den nuvÊrende krig mod terrorismen kan Barnett se sÂdan en un¯dvendig konflikt, nemlig den amerikanske brug af tortur eller ªDirty Harry-metoder´.


Hvis det fortsÊtter, kan USA komme til at bruge uanede ressourcer p at forsvare sig selv mod anklager om menneskeretsforbrydelser, og det m stoppe, siger han.


Som han skrev i Wired:


ªHvis ikke vi vil bruge den resterende del af terrorkrigen til at efterrationalisere politibrutalitet og tortur, s m USA anerkende - for det f¯rste, at landet ikke er hÊvet over loven, og for det andet, at det beh¯ver et nyt sÊt regler for at fange, afh¯re, indespÊrre og retsforf¯lge udenstatsakt¯rer sÂsom internationale terrorister.´


ForstÂr opbakningen


Det er en advarsel, der har slÂet ned i Washington med et vist efterdr¯n.


Barnett er ikke en hr-hvilken-som-helst - han holder powerpoint foredrag for forsvarsledelsen og for forsvarsminister Donald Rumsfeld - og hans timing er velvalgt.


I begyndelsen af George W. Bushs anden prÊsidentperiode stÂr det klart, at USA har accepteret tortur light - eller som en af fortalerne for de nye forh¯rsmetoder har udtrykt det: USA praktiserer nu ªtortur p en moralsk korrekt mÂde´.


I forrige uge blev Alberto Gonzales indsat som ny justitsminister, samme Gonzales, der som Bushs juridiske rÂdgiver stod bag hele det amerikanske opg¯r med GenËvekonventionen, og som indvarslede de nye forh¯rstider, og Michael Chertoff, den ny antiterrorminister, har ligeledes i sin tid i justitsministeriet talt for brugen af hÂrde metoder.


Professor John Yoo udtrykte i Berlingske Tidende i gÂr hele det republikanske synspunkt om, at de nye tider er accepterede tider.


ªBushs valgsejr og godkendelsen af Gonzales er et tegn p en generel accept af regerings antiterrorpolitik, inklusive forh¯rsmetoderne,´ sagde han.


Men det er et farligt synspunkt, siger Thomas Barnett i dag.


Ikke at han ikke forstÂr det. Han forstÂr bÂde Bush-regeringens bevÊggrunde og offentlighedens tilsyneladende opbakning til tortur light - som han siger:


ªTerrorisme er en fuldstÊndig omgÂelse af de regler, som civiliserede lande lever under, s nÂr du indlader dig p det, s vil folk ikke n¯dvendigvis f¯le, at du er beskyttet under de normale regler. S simpelt er det. De erklÊrer krig mod vores love og hele vores system, og nÂr hele vores system er i fare, s er der en tendens til, at vi gÂr ud over systemet for at beskytte det.´


Behovet for regler



Problemet er heller ikke i sig selv, at forbryderne bliver skudt ned under kampe i gaderne i Irak, eller at de bliver indespÊrret uden de sÊdvanlige retsgarantier. Thomas Barnett har ikke s¯vnl¯se nÊtter af den grund.


Problemet er langt mere realpolitisk.


ªUSA kan formentlig godt komme afsted med en Dirty Harry-politik, s lÊnge som USA har lyst til det. SÂdan en slags koldkrigsagtig nedskydning af forbrydere, som ingen vil grÊde tÂrer over. Problemet er ikke at g¯re det, problemet er i h¯jere grad at f udarbejdet nogle mere permanente regler for, hvordan alle civiliserede nationer tackler terrorisme uden for deres egne grÊnser.´


Hvis alle lande - som USA - blot fastlÊgger deres egne spilleregler, vil landene snart t¯rne ind i hinanden, og dÈn tanke kan til gengÊld forstyrre Barnetts nattes¯vn, for det vil ¯delÊgge hele verdensordenen og hans tese om, at civiliserede lande ikke lÊngere f¯rer krig mod hinanden.


ªFaren er, at Europa og lande som Rusland, Indien, Kina og USA med tiden vil begynde at st¯de ind i hinanden i konfliktomrÂderne . . . og ikke blot kan vi komme til at modarbejde hinanden, men vi kan ogs komme til pr. vikar at f¯re krig mod hinanden, og det vil vÊre meget problematisk.´


WCO for de inviterede



Hvad er l¯sningen sÂ?


For at begynde med hvad l¯sningen ikke er - l¯sningen er ikke FN. Thomas Barnett er helt enig med de konservative amerikanere, som betragter FN som noget nÊr en anakronisme.


L¯sningen er i stedet en sikkerhedspolitisk ekvivalent til frihandelsorganisationen WTO. Barnett kalder organisationen for WCO, World Counterterrorism Organization, og WCO skal som sin f¯rste opgave fastlÊgge juraen for kampen mod terror og bygge de fysiske facilliteter til at rumme retssager og fanger.


DernÊst skal WCO opbygge et politinetvÊrk og en stor global terrordatabase.

Det vil ikke vÊre et Interpol, hvor alle i princippet kan vÊre med. Nej, kun inviterede lande kan f lov til at blive medlemmer af WCO - og de inviterede lande vil netop vÊre USA, Rusland, Kina og de europÊiske lande.


Det vil ikke vÊre nemt, det vil ikke komme af sig selv, men lige som WTO opstod over mange Âr - og gennem mange fejlskud - vil WCO ogs udvikle sig og ende med at sikre kloden et ªvoksent overopsyn´. Barnett erkender, at det smager af gammeldags imperialisme, at disse lande fÂr lov til at sÊtte dagsorden og f.eks. marchere ind i tredjeverdenslande og nedkÊmpe terrorister eller anholde dem, men over for nogle lande er det en n¯dvendighed, og som han siger i magasinet Wired, man kan ikke i den forbindelse regne med et FN, hvor lande som Libyen bliver gjort til formand for menneskeretskommissionen.


S Dirty Harry m blive ren.


Ikke af hensyn til forbryderne, ikke af hensyn til menneskeretsorganisationer og andre kritikere, men fordi hans regelbrud og hans tju-bang metoder spÊrrer for et WCO-samarbejde, og fordi de i sidste ende kan f¯re til et tju-bang med stater, som USA ikke har lyst til at slÂs med.


www.thomaspmbarnett.com

5:30AM

Turkey's first online newspaper takes on PNM

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 13 February 2005

I am told that Zaman Daily News' online version is the first online presence of a major Turkish newspaper. Below is an excerpt from an article that explores PNM less as a review and more as a cultural touchstone.


This coverage reflects the fact that PNM the Turkish edition has hit bookstores there. I went on CNN Turkey a bit back regarding this.


Click here for the full article





ZAMAN ONLINE: First Turkish Paper on the Internet


ABDULHAMIT BILICI


How to Understand the U.S.


In the manner the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) dominant position wiped out the enthusiasm in the Turkish political arena, the international system also adopted a similar monotony after the Cold War . . .


I can personally say that I spent an important part of my one-week holiday reading an interesting book, which helped my understanding of the U.S. a little bit more. Professor Thomas P.M. Barnett, who has been a researcher on strategic topics at the Naval Academy and a member of the "U.S. power unity" team, which was established after the September 11 attacks, wrote a book that gives hints about how the Pentagon, which is the most influential government agency in the current U.S. policies, perceives the world.


The author, in his sensationally titled book, "Pentagon's New Map," reveals a new perspective on U.S. policies after September 11 although he sometimes bores the reader with exaggerated references to his own story.


He divides the world into two: On the one side, the "center" which comprises North America, Europe, China, India and Japan where globalization works. And on the other side, the vacuum which comprises the Middle East including Turkey, Central and Southern Asia, all of Africa, except Republic of South Africa, where cannot integrate into the global system. Barnett claims that peace and stability in the world can only be ensured if this vacuum is narrowed with military, economic, political means and he opposes a division on a religious, cultural and civilization perspective as Huntington suggests. He says that September 11 showed that the West will not be able to find absolute peace behind high castles if it does not, through cooperation, carry justice, freedom and prosperity that people living in the center enjoy this non-integrating space.


A last note for Bush haters: Barnett, who served as a security adviser for the U. S forces for 10 years, does not approve of the methods used in implementing this perspective he presented, and he is frustrated by Bush's speeches and those of his friends too. Maybe, you may also want to read this Harvard-trained strategist's book like a mystery novel.


COMMENTARY: Given the level of anti-Americanism and conspiracy-thinking in Turkey right now, this was an awfully kind reference. I think, though, he may have taken the whole "Fox Mulder" spoof a bit too seriously!

5:18AM

Blurb on Esquire Article

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 13 February 2005

Bill Steigerwald is the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review who interviewed me a while back for his regular segment. In this piece on Friday, he mentions the Esquire piece.


For the entire article, click here



The best and worst of Ayn Rand

By Bill Steigerwald


TRIBUNE-REVIEW

Friday, February 11, 2005


It's not easy being balanced when it comes to Ayn Rand . . .


Esquire, meanwhile, is looking editorially brighter and better these days, though it is still keeping its wheezing "Dubious Achievements" on life support. No one living can remember when they were last funny, but 2004's verbal/visual look at war, politics and scandal elicits a few chuckles.


Actually, there are more genuine laugh lines in professor Thomas P.M. Barnett's piece, "Mr. President, Here's How to Make Sense of Your Second Term, Secure Your Legacy, and, Oh Yeah, Create a Future Worth Living."


Barnett, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, is one of the hottest American war policy experts in D.C., thanks to his info-taining power-point presentations to Pentagon brass and his best seller "The Pentagon's New Map."


Barnett says the long-term success of President Bush's big-bang strategy to democratize the Middle East and end terrorism hinges on two global bit players thousands of miles away -- North Korea and Taiwan.


Either country, Barnett warns, "is a threat to pull the president's attention away from the Middle East while simultaneously torpedoing the most important strategic relationship America has right now" -- the one with China.


Meanwhile, wielding an entertaining mix of pop culture references and Pentagonese, Barnett -- who likes Bush and agrees with his big-bang strategy -- says the road to lasting peace in Jerusalem and Baghdad starts in Tehran and ends in Beijing.


Talk about dubious achievements. Barnett's tour of the globe's hotspots and recommendations for U.S. military or political intervention is a wild, fun-filled ride that could make Condi Rice dizzy -- and Pat Buchanan cry.



COMMENTARY: Ah yes, the pop strategist strikes again. Still, there's much good to be had in making strategic thought real and important right now. With the Echo Boomers (1982-1995) coming online in a big way socially (already online in a big way technologically and in terms of consumer power), someone needs to reach back to that group, because it's very goal-oriented, very naive about the world, very ambitious about changing that world, and incredibly multi-kulti in its tolerance and political orientation. They are a natural SysAdmin generation.

11:29AM

I'm third of three on Tucker Carlson tonight

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 11 February 2005

Here is the blurb on the show's PBS site:



Tucker engages Dr. Thomas Barnett, author of The Pentagon's New Map, and national security strategist. Barnett tells Tucker his ideas for how the United States can maintain its security. He states that America needs to rely on Iran for security in Iraq, and we should allow them to have nuclear weaponry. He says that we need to make peace with Iran and form a relationship with China to help the situation in the Middle East.


Dr. Barnett has worked in national security affairs since the end of the Cold War, is a New York Times-bestselling author and an award-winning professor.


For details on the entire show, click here


Baby's got pneumonia, so that's it for me today.

8:00PM

Now can we get on to business?

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 11 February 2005

Found this in my email box when I got home:



North Korea: ëWe have nukesí

U.S., allies blister Pyongyang for pulling out of disarmament talks


NBC, MSNBC and news services



SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea triggered an avalanche of international criticism Thursday when it boasted for the first time that it had nuclear weapons and rejected moves to restart disarmament talks any time soon.


Rest here

7:47PM

Good Gap, Bad Core

Dateline: SWA flight 2279 from Phoenix to Providence, 10 February 2005

Neat story today in Times ("Asterisk Aside, Saudis Prepare For Their First National Election," by Neil MacFarquhar, NYT, 10 Feb 05, p. A1) about upcoming Saudi election. Yes, no women voting. And yes, only half the seats on these councils up for grabs, as the royal family gets to pick the rest, but hey, it's a start for the only country in the world named after a family. Saudi Arabia is not really a country, but at least it's trying to act like one, and that's amazing. 9/11 doesn't do this. Nor does Afghanistan. Iraq does thisópure and simple.


As for Iraq ("Shiite Offers Secular Vision Of Iraq Future," by Dexter Filkins, NYT, 10 Feb 05, p. A1), not every Shiite political heavyweight is talking a big role for religion in the constitution.


Great opening sequence:



Adel Abdul Mahdi, one of the leading candidates to become the new Iraqi prime minister, recalled the day last year when he and other Iraqi leaders were summoned to the holy city of Najaf by the country's senior Shiite clerics.

The topic was the role of Islam in the new Iraqi state. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's most powerful Shiite leader, questioned whether Mr. Mahdi and the others, members of the American-appointed Iraqi Governing Council, had the legitimacy to draft an interim constitution.


"You were not elected," Ayatollah Sistani told the group.


Mr. Mahdi says he did not hesitate to answer.


"You were not elected," he told the ayatollah.



Now to the "bad" Core.


Good WSJ story ("Putin Survives Parliament Vote of No Confidence: Welfare Overhaul Still Puts Kremlin on the Defensive, Threatening Other Efforts," by Alan Cullison, WSJ. 10 Feb 05, p. A10.) on Putin backtracking a bit in response to recent pubic protests that segue into a no-confidence vote in the parliament. Hell, as a former Soviet expert, I just enjoy reading that headline!


I know, I know. Death of Russian democracy and all that.


Give me a break. This baby is just learning to crawl, and a no-confidence vote here and there simply reminds us that Russia is still learningóon all sides.


Sadder story ("Lenovo Deal Elevate China Fears: Proposal to Buy IBM Unit Raises Security, Competitive Issues," by Greg Hitt, WSJ, 10 Feb 05, p. A4) reminds us how dumb some members of Congress can be. Somehow this sale is going to be the death of us! China's going to get their hands on computing technology! Now China's buying up "crown jewels" just like Japan did!


Boo hooey!


Ask yourself why IBM is willing to sell. Does anyone with their head out of their ass think controlling the PC market is the key the future? They have a saying among the Echo Boomers: "How come you're still using a laptop?"


Better yet, try this on for strategic thought: article notes correctly that these fears are reruns of those we had on Japan, Inc. at start of 90s, but thenówe are remindedówe were talking about a democracy and a military ally.


So the answer we get from some deep minds in Congress? "Let's cut those crafty Chinese off from this technology! That'll teach 'em!"


This is so bassackwards you want to cringe. Yes, our economic and technology ties with China far outdistance our political and military ones, and this proposed sale reminds us of that reality.


So what's the answer? Slow down the economic and technological connectivity? Or speed up the military and political connectivity?


I say to Congress, FIRMLY GRIP BOTH SHOULDERS AND PULL!

7:46PM

A Good Hmmmm on North Korea

Dateline: SWA flight 2279 from Phoenix to Providence, 10 February 2005

Story is interesting: "Japan Discusses Possible Sanctions On North Korea," by Sebastian Moffett and Gordon Fairclough, WSJ, 10 Feb 05, p. A10.


Japan's broaching of tough economic sanctions on Kim Jong Make-Me-Ill's regime is described as its "toughest posture yet." Right now Japan is the 6-Party-Talks player talking most vociferously about doing something about North Korea.


Put that together with Bush special emissary to Hu Jintao, and you get one big hmmmmm.

8:33PM

In AZ to give a speech at Raytheon's annual senior leadership conference

Dateline: above the pool in the Westin Kierland Spa and Resort, Scottsdale AZ, 9 February 2005

Flew this afternoon. First time I left the yard since Friday, that's how focused I've been on the book.


Cracked out an old laptop of mine I haven't used in years because my new Mac hasn't arrived yet. Got 2,700 words out before the battery died. Figure I'm halfway through section 2 of Chapter 5. Not sure I like this one so much, so maybe it won't make it in the book.


After checking into the hotel and checking out the ballroom set-up for tomorrow, I go see my Mom who's in town seeing her sister. Nice visit, but short. Able to pass on some 80th b-day presents.


Nice hotel, this one.

7:48PM

Tucker Carlson Unfiltered Segment Airs Friday Night on PBS, 11 Feb

Dateline: Westin Kierland Resort and Spa, Scottsdale AZ, 9 February 2005

Got word from my PR guy at Putnam that Tucker Carlson's PBS show will air the interview segment with me this Friday night, 11 February. Check your local listings, because it's not on at the same time everywhere. It's on at 9pm where I live, but you know PBS, every station airs when it wants.

7:47PM

Formatting in aggregators

In January I received an email from Lisa who reads this blog using Blogines:

I just did a check with on a Windows XP machine with Opera, Foxfire and Internet Explorer. They all look the same to me. . . no line breaks or paragraph breaks. I've also viewed it (not today) with Mac OSX Safari, with the same result.


Any suggestions? No problems with mozilla on an XP machine


Now, it's February and I've got a bit of time to explore the issue, requesting feedback from readers. Thus far, here's what I've been told:


"FYI, it looks fine in SharpReader"


"using Radio (from Radio Userland) .. lines run together all combinations of platform and browser . . . PC and Mac, IE and Firefox "


"I read the Barnett weblog in Bloglines using Firefox 1.0 in both

Windows XP and Linux, and it always looks fine to me -- paragraph

breaks, indentation for blockquotes, etc."


"No formatting problems noticeable in Tom's blog. I'm Windows XP Pro Service Pack 2; normally use Mozilla Firefox when I read; sometimes Deepnet Explorer."


Hmmmm. . . I'd like more data about Radio/Frontier UserLand. My referral logs show a bunch of you out there. Do you see paragraphs in this post? Indents?


If anyone wants to suggest a tweak to my RSS 2.0 template -- that will render the expected formatting in Radio -- please let me know.