Iceland pretty warm actually

Dateline: business class lounge for IcelandAir in Keflavik Airport, Reykjavik, Iceland

Would you believe 45 degrees in February?

Can't say I like Icelandic keyboards . . .

Gotta keep this short, cause I¥m hungry for free food and next flight starts boarding in five minutes.

Sure is beautiful terminal. Lotsa dark wood and all so Scandanavian sleek. Got a lot of work done on flight, organizing notes for book, plus writing reference letter for friend. Nice grilled tuna, nice Chilean wine, very old movie (First Wives' Club).

On to Oslo. Debating the Ambien pill. Feel I should sleep some. Good thing it is still dark here at 7am.

Gotta love business class. Was complete surprise when I checked in. Nice of host. Economy full of students!

I smell eggs . . .

Norway in February . . . that's planning!

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 19 February 2005

Brilliant! I fly to Iceland tonight. I mean, who doesn't want to fly to Iceland on a Saturday night . . . in February! I end up on the northern coast of Norway tomorrow, in Bergen to be exact.

Getting my rear out door means cleaning house with help of two oldest, plus coaching Kev in basketball (we lost first half big-time, won second half in fabulous fashion, but ending up losing game; Kev, however, was spectacular on defense with steals galore and lotsa assists on O).

Here's some stuff on my way out door . . .

■ The deal we're not making with China on North Korea

■ Yet another scary article on India and China wanting MORE OIL!

■ Pol Pot was a monster from hell, but Kim's bodycount (while passive) is higher

■ Who owns the Amazon?

■ The Kurds want their federalism

The deal we're not making with China on North Korea

■"China Uneasy In Korea Role, Wary of U.S.," by Howard D. French, New York Times, 19 February 2005, p. A1.

■"7 Habits of Highly Effective Cadres: Western Management Experts Descend on an Eager China.," by David Barboza, New York Times, 19 February 2005, p. B1.

The opening paras of the first story tell it all:

The dispatch by China of a high-level envoy this weekend to persuade the North Koreans to return to talks on their nuclear weapons would seem to present it with an ideal opportunity.

China's economy is growing enormously, casting shadows in every direction. Its fast-modernizing military has the attention of every power, regional or global. No other country, meanwhile, enjoys the kind of long, unbroken friendship that China has nurtured for over five decades with North Korea. In short, all the pieces would seem to be in place for Beijing to score its first big coup in global diplomacy, brokering an end to the nuclear threat on the Korean peninsula.

The only problem with this optimistic scenario is that it is shared by almost no one in China.

For now, the Chinese remain reluctant to take major diplomatic risks on North Korea, convinced that this longtime ally, a country that Chinese soldiers shed blood in large numbers to defend, will never turn against them. Analysts say that Beijing's top priority is to maintain quiet on its frontier, and that it would take a more aggressive tack only if tensions between Washington and North Korea were to increase seriously.

Beyond such doubts, however, lingers an even more fundamental reason for the reluctance of China to take the lead in this crisis: its deep-seated skepticism about the United States' strategic designs in the region.

"If we cut off aid and the Koreas are unified on South Korean terms, that would be a big disaster for China," one analyst said. "The U.S. would insist on basing its troops in the northern part of the peninsula, and China would have to consider that all of its efforts going back to the Korean War have been a waste."

Other experts here look cynically on Washington's insistence on Chinese leadership in the North Korean face-off, seeing it as part of a broader effort by the United States to entangle Beijing in a growing web of international arrangements, the better to limit Chinese influence.

A fresh example of the divisions between the United States and China was provided this week with confirmation that Tokyo is moving closer to Washington's policy position that the status quo on Taiwan must be maintained. Chinese analysts often point out that having a friendly country tying up American troops on its northern border frees Beijing to focus its forces on other contingencies, notably the Taiwan question.

What this tells me is that America has it within its power to enlist China's support for Kim's removal from power, but that we're not signaling in the right way to make clear to China what benefits would accrue to it for this major effort on their part. And that's because we're of two minds on China, and that's too bad, because absent these sorts of Cold War leftovers (Taiwan defense guarantee, North Korea), there isn't much to divide us. China wants our ways, our advice, our progress.

What we can't decide is how important China is becoming to us, and so Kim lives on in our state of strategic confusion.

Again, too bad, because with China's help, Kim is eminently vulnerable. Clearly, we prefer fearing China more than getting rid of Kim. It's really that simple.

Yet another scary article on India and China wanting MORE OIL!

■"2 Big Appetites Take Seats at the Oil Table: China and India Compete for Energy Resources in Places Others Shun," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 18 February 2005, p. C1.

Oh do we fret now that two long-time socialist states have embraced capitalism and growth in a big, big way. What were we thinking? Now they're a real threat!

People have this all backwards. By connecting to disconnected states that the Old Core shuns, New Core India and China don't threaten us, but give us new opportunities to change these countries and our relationships with them. This is definitely the case with Iran, but all we see is their "obstructionism."

We're talking 37 percent of the world's population with skyrocketing energy demands. People who think this will remake energy markets and environmentalism are correct, but that's not all. It will remake political and security relationships. We can adjust to that reality, or we can idiotically try to fight it or demonize it.

Pol Pot was a monster from hell, but Kim's bodycount (while passive) is higher

■"Cambodia's Murderous Mystery Man [book review]," by William Grimes, New York Times, 18 February 2005, p. B33.

The book is Pol Pot: Anatomy of a Nightmare, by Philip Short. A bio of the man who led the killing of 1.5 million out of a population of only 7 million, or roughly one out of every five people in the country.

Pol Pot was the Taliban of Maoism, or the Trotskyite of Leninism, or the Stalinist of Marxism: he pushed the logic to stunning conclusions.

His revolution was the ultimate expression of socialism's reach-back in time to start over with the right kind of society. His was the vision of the far left gone mad and Occidentalism taken to its utmost extreme:

"Money, law courts, newspapers, the postal system and foreign telecommunications--even the concept of the city--were all simply abolished," Philip Short writes in his superb, authoritative account of the man and the madness that transformed Cambodia, almost overnight, into hell on earth. "Individual rights were not curtailed in favor of the collective, but extinguished altogether. Individual creativity, initiative, originality were condemned per se. Individual consciousness was systematically abolished."

Pol Pol killed his countrymen systematically. It is estimated that Kim Jong Il's famine-induced genocide of the late 1990s killed upwards of two million in North Korea. But his story is far from being told.

One killed actively, the other worked hard to make sure people died for lack of food.

We won't know all the horrific details on Kim until years after his regime is toppled, but someday, you will read his bio for real and it will be just as scary as Pol Pot's.

Who owns the Amazon?

■"Brazil Carves Outs 2 Vast Preserves in the Amazon Rain Forest," by AP, New York Times, 18 February 2005, p. A5.

The real seam that defines Brazil is the Amazon, the bulk of which is an almost uncontrollable expanse. The Amazon is roughly half of the country, and the huge Para state exemplifies this sort of frontier lawlessness/justice, where ranchers rule with an iron fist right out of some nasty Sergio Leone Western. Private logging companies and ranchers have been digging deeper into the Amazon for years. Resistance arises, an American nun is assassinated, and Lula responds with two decrees creating a vast new reserve.

Who owns the Amazon? That has always been the question, and the lack of an answer to that question has always been a source of violence and woe for Brazil. We shall see if Lula's answer works, and how he'll enforce it.

The Kurds want their federalism

■"Iraqi Kurds Detail Their Strong Demands for Autonomy," by Edward Wong, New York Times, 18 February 2005, p. A8.

The Shiites need the Kurds to rule Iraq and the Kurds' price is real federalism that gives them substantial autonomy.

This is the end of the unitary state that was Iraq, and the sort of federalism that emerges here can be one scary model for the rest of the Middle East.

Clear losers? Sunnis. They lose the power and the control of the energy.

Figuring the scheme

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 18 February 2005

Glass definitely half-full today. Got my first check from my speaking agency. That connected.

Spent half the day scheming on my new assignments with Esquire, and made me feel connected. Oddly enough, all that activity is like one neverending job search, and I find that more connecting than being stuck in a job I no longer felt anything for, in part because all that auditioning fits my personality (8 of 9) better than the pseudo-authority of belonging to an established entity. I like proving myself more than feeling proven - or even approved.

I will even confess to seriously thinking through the next book already! And I am moving toward aggressively pursuing that book (the one Mark Warren and I pondered up at the Leinie Lounge at Lambeau) before the Emily Updates, because I think the sequencing payoff is better (though I may be wrong). I will have to start carrying a notebook on Vol. III.

Happy news from Berkeley Paperback today. An email from a sales exec asked if anything special was going on early last week, because apparently Amazon sold several hundred copies on Wednesday - just like that! And we're talking three months before the book comes out. At first I suspected a conference coming up, possibly one where I'm speaking. Then I started wondering about some college ordering ahead maybe? Either way, it felt good, because it says the book continues to be discovered.

Today, back to the blog, so more work for my intern editor, Sean Meade, who goes through all my posts after the fact and proofs them for me. Sean volunteered for this job out of the blue a while back, and he does a nice job. Eventually, I want to pay him more than a compliment, which is why I'm hoping the Rule Set Reset continues to pick up speed. Our second issue comes out very soon, and we're keeping this one free like the first as we work out our form and sense of function. After this one, though, we hit subscription mode for real.

Wrote this all up over five hours of Japanese anime with the kids. All I can say is, the Japanese can do more than just teach a thing or two about vampires. Hell, they own the whole genre!

Best part? My first Mac battery went about 3:20 and I'm finishing exhausted here with 76% on number two. You gotta like that.

Go dog! Go! Now is the time for work! Work dog! Work!

And yes, now is the time on Sprockets when we dance . . .

Here's today's catch:

■ Working all the evil axes

■ 2007: the globalization urbanization tipping point

■ News that cheers this frequent flier

■ Qatar's doing this just to thwart Tom Friedman!

■ The SysAdmin goes high-tech as the environment regresses

■ U.S.: I nominate anybody but us to do Sudan

■ Supermen to overpower the Super-Empowered

■ Egypt getting a thumb's up

■ Big Man on big buying spree, and Venezuelans are certainly the winners here!

■ Europe is basically right across the board

■ Mongolia finds its voice in the New Core

■ The vanishing girls of China

■ Star Wars remains a great work of fiction

■ If crazy Pakistan can have nukes . . .

■ Who shouldn't define what's a threat to the United States

Working all the evil axes

■"In China, an Unusual Level Of Criticism Toward an Ally," by Keith Bradsher and James Brooke, New York Times, 13 February 2005, p. A12.

■"Rice Assures South Korean Of U.S. Pressure on North," by Joel Brinkley and James Brooke, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A6.

■"Japan to Join U.S. Policy on Taiwan: Growth of China Seen Behind Shift," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, 18 February 2005, p. A1.

■"U.S. Seems Sure of the Hand of Syria, Hinting at Penalties," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A8.

■"U.S. and U.N. Step Up Pressure on Damascus: Security Council Urges Troop Withdrawal," by Robin Wright, Washington Post, 16 February 2005, p. A14.

■"Iran Says Pilotless U.S. Jets Are Spying on Nuclear Sites," by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, 17 February 2005, p. A10.

■"Bush Urges Diplomatic Solutions to Conflicts: President Stresses Desire to Work With Allies on Standoffs With Syria, Iran, N. Korea," by Peter Baker, Washington Post, 18 February 2005, p. A6.

I canít tell you how many emails Iíve gotten about the Esquire piece where they tell me how crazy I am for thinking China will ever help us topple Kim Jong Il. But here is the Chinese media talking more critically than ever, and here is the Bush administration making no secret of its desire to recruit Beijingís help. Key pen names being used to signal official intent, but China stops short of supporting regime change strategies like dropping radios or ìother steps to help the countryís residents realize how poor and isolate they are.î

A war of connectivity? Too bad that the poor and malnutritioned rural poor have watched their height and IQ levels drop for years on end (Iím not kidding). When you starve an entire generation like that, you weaken them from within. To expect radios to do the trick alone asks too much. This is a real totalitarian state, with a truly infantilized population as a result. Weíre talking the 70-pound 14-year-old whoís been locked in the closet for 8 years. Itís that sick and that real.

Itís not a choice between war and regime change. People may think that avoiding the war avoids the peacekeeping and nation-building, but all that strategy gets you is more suffering in the meantime. Are we waiting for that 70-pound 14-year-old to somehow grow into an adult who can stand up for himself? When they never get out of the closet?

Everyone knows, as the second article points out, ìthat China is the only nation with leverage on North Korea.î Why? Itís the only one that has both carrots and sticks and it willing to use both, as one analyst points out.

So why do we encourage Japan to simultaneously stand up to China over Taiwan? Where are we going with that one? Should we be surprised that most Chinese believe their government should side with North Korea so long as both countries see the U.S. as a common enemy?

We need to get something more out of Kimís fall than just Kimís fall, or even Korean reunification. We need a huge payoff from something of that effort, and that payoff is a security relationship with China that rules out war over Taiwan or anything else. Ask yourself if ultimately this isnít something weíre going to want to have and need to have, and if that is the case, then real strategic vision is always on the lookout for making that happen.

North Korea is staring us in the face as an opportunity.

Over to the Middle East, weíre now fixating on Syria as a big problem, but Syria is more symptom than source. We fix Iran and we fix Syria and Lebanon to boot. Fixing Iran isnít an invasion or an occupation. That is the only way to actually lose that society, which is already on our side. Nowhere near a totalitarian state, so you kill it with connectivity. No need to fly in radios to clue the population in. They almost revolted outright soon after Saddamís fall.

But no, we canít negotiate with a state that sponsors terrorism! I get a lot of those emails.

Yet somehow we did just that with the USSR for years on end, and frankly, as a student of Soviet support for terrorism around the world, there is simply no comparing the two. The Sovs were global and deep in their support. Iran is minor league in comparison. But with the Sovs we saw something larger at stake (peace in Europe), so we dealt and did the regime in with connectivity. How much has our isolation weakened the mullahs so far in Iran? Ready for something else?

Bush says he wants ìdiplomatic solutions,î but too often that just means ìour wayî with no threat of ìhighway,î and that wonít work. Deal the war or deal the peace.

Look ahead and ask yourself: Do you see North Korea in the future? If not, then the question is time, not ìif.î

But also ask yourself: Do you see Iran not being a key player in the Middle East? Not being Shiite? Not having mullahs? Weíre not changing those realities, but steering them down different pathways. The real question is, How to marginalize the mullahs politically?

Certainly not by trying the same isolating shtick thatís kept Castro in power in Cuba all these years.

2007: the globalization urbanization tipping point

■"Half Worldís People to Live in Cities by 2007," by Irwin Arieff, Reuters, 15 February 2005, pulled off web (Yahoo news).

World goes majority urban in 2007. U.S. did it around 1920 and a generation later, we had an entirely new political landscape. Same will be true for world.

As I explore in the PNM Blueprint for Action, shrinking the Gap is one big exercise in successfully bringing the population from rural to urban, connecting these people to larger opportunities in the process. This urbanization process is a huge tipping point moment. We are on the verge of shrinking the Gap because the Gap is on the verge of so many things that we need to help these nations achieve, with security obviously being at the top of the list.

Right now about 75% of the Old Core lives in cities, but far less than half do in the Gap. Where are the biggest cities of the future? Most are New Core giant metropolises found in places like China, India, Brazil, Mexico. This is an obvious tipping point process.

Shrinking the Gap means growing ìcoresî all over the place, and theyíre called successful cities that process all that ambition and connect it to something larger, and that something larger is the global economy, or the only thing capable of taking advantage of all that potential comparative advantage.

The SysAdmin goes high-tech as the environment regresses

■"A New Model Army Soldier Rolls Closer to the Battlefield," by Tim Weiner, New York Times, 16 February 2005, p. A1.

■"New Factor in Iraq: Irregular Brigades Fill Security Void," by Greg Jaffe, Wall Street Journal, 16 February 2005, p. A1.

Experts keep wanting to attack the SysAdmin concept as ìlow tech,î when itís really ìwow techî thatís got a lot more commercial-sector crossover potential. We canít swap out people for capital much more on the Leviathan force, because itís already amazingly capital-intensive. Logically, as an investor in the defense community, you should not fear the transformation of transformation from the Leviathan to SysAdmin, because the latter is the ìGapî of the defense universe: lotsa labor just waiting to be technologized into something more efficient. Robots were never going to take off in the Leviathan world, but in the SysAdmin universe, their potential is almost unlimitedóand all of it can be used simultaneously in the private sector because policing is policing the world over, as is transparency and monitoring in general.

The SysAdmin force isnít the death of the defense industry, itís the salvation.

Especially since the environment itíll be working in only grows more complex with time. The Fourth Generation Warfare types want you to believe that Network-Centric Ops are passÈ, when in reality theyíre only beginning to come into their own, with the real progress of the future coming on the SysAdmin and not the Leviathan side. War remains incredibly simple and hellish, but peace gets more complex by the moment. In war, telling the bad from good is fairly straightforward, but telling all the good guys from all the bad guys in peace isnít just hard, itís godawfully complex. Networking the military is going to be a lot more interesting in the SysAdmin force than it ever was in the Leviathan force. The Leviathan lives in a pre-Net or Net-down environment, by and large, whereas the SysAdmin is networking personified.

Qatar's doing this just to thwart Tom Friedman!

■"In Qatar, Oil Firms Make Huge Bet On Alternative Fuel: Supports Say New Diesel Is Cleaner, More Efficient; Untested on Large Scale," by Russell Gold, Wall Street Journal, 15 February 2005, p. A1.

Exxon, shut out of Saudi Arabia, is pouring billions into Qatar to create the worldís largest natural gas-to-liquid plant in the world. Big gamble? Yes. Getting the world to shift to this clear diesel is no mean trick, but not as hard as you might think. Work some huge rising vehicle markets like India and China and you capture a lot of the auto-making and truck-making playersí attention across the world. Itís not who has the most vehicles now, but whoís buying the most in the coming years.

But alas, none of this will really fit Tom Friedmanís dream of killing them (authoritarian regimes) softly with lowered oil prices, because the same (at least early) big sources of gas will hail from the same regions as the long-time big sources of oil. Yes, eventually, weíll search the world over more intelligently on gas, but in the near- and mid-term itíll all be what they call ìassociated gas,î or gas weíve found when looking for oil (associated with oil).

Should we be depressed? No. The connectivity required on gas is a lot more than that required for oil: more technology, more industry, more pipelines, more long-term commitments and infrastructural change.

Donít beggar these regimes; connect them.

News that cheers this frequent flier

■"The Surprising Odds of Surviving a Crash: Majority of Fliers Walk Away From Airline Accidents; A Visit to FAAís Safety Lab," by Scott McCartney, Wall Street Journal, 15 February 2005, p. D1.

Over the past two decades, almost 3,000 people were involved in plane/jets crashes in U.S. and more than half lived.

The flight attendants arenít kidding about the ìcrash positionî; it really works. No, really, it can be the difference between life and death.

Two other keys: keep your shoes on (donít worry, the slides wonít rip nowadays) and know in advance how many rows you must travel to an exit (smoke likely to be bad, so you should be able to do it blind). You can get out and you can survive, itís just likely to be nasty, with your survival depending on youíre being proactive and wading through some serious smoke and debris (so keep your shoes on!).

Supermen to overpower the Super-Empowered

Supermen to overpower the Super-Empowered

■"Arab Superheroes Leap Pyramids in a Single Bound," by Daniel Williams, Washington Post, 16 February 2005, p. C1.

Fascinating article on rise of AK Comics in Egypt. An interesting tale of globalization, with cross-cultural fertilization galore. Not the clash of civilizations, but their merging.

In countries where the real social issues canít be addressed directly in the media and arts, stuff like comics and science fiction can be huge (like both were in the Soviet Union) because itís the ìsafeî way of exploring todayís issues in alternative universes, plus these media naturally appeal to the youngóthe hearts to be won.

Modeled behavior is everythingóin governance, in parenting, in shrinking the Gap.

You know, when I taught my class at the college on ìThinking Systematically About Alternative Global Futures,î the whole point of the in-class training was to get the students to the point where they really didnít need me, because they could see the news and read it with an eye to placing it naturally within larger contexts.

By the time I got to my email Wednesday night, a slew of readers had sent me this article, and most were the longest-reading ones (I can tell, because of the older email address they use for me). I really love it when I see that, because it means Iíve got to get smarter if I want to stay ahead of my own audience!

U.S.: I nominate anybody but us to do Sudan

■"10,000 Peacekeepers Sought By U.S. for Southern Sudan: Americans want U.S. forces to ensure that a peace pact is upheld," by Warren Hoge, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A10.

The U.S. would like 10,000 peacekeepers and 750 cops in Sudanópronto!

And it would be nice if the UN took the lead. Problem is weíre holding up the Old Coreís desire to have the International Criminal Court be the lead player in prosecuting the guilty.

Time to get our chocolate in their peanut butter and vice versa. Otherwise, weíre left with saying, ìItíd be nice if you did the peacekeeping so long as the ICC isnít involved.î

Meanwhile, all we hear back is, ìOh yeah, well, itíd be nice if the ICC was involved so long as you led the peacekeeping!î

Guess where that dialogue goes. Nowhere.

We have to seed the SysAdmin and the SysAdmin must eventually feed the ICC. Piss and moan all you want about these outcomes. Decry them from the mountain top. Declare me a traitor to the Founding Fathers and a one-world-government toady.

But in the end, this is going to happen. Wonít happen cause we want it. Wonít happen cause we like it.

Itíll happen because we canít stand the continued failure and pain weíre left with otherwise.

Big Man on big buying spree, and Venezuelans are certainly the winners here!

■"Arms Buying By Venezuela Worries U.S.: Planes From Brazil On Shopping List," by Juan Forero, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A3.

Chavez is stocking up on arms and aircraft, and New Core Brazil is more than happy to sell them to him. Why?

The New Core naturally wants to prevent the Old Core from too much domination. Bribes, by and large, go downward, not upward. The Old Core tends to bribe the New Core, and the New Core tends to bribe the Gap. When New Core Brazil is bribing Gap Venezuela, itís because the Old Core hasnít done its job on Brazil.

Whine if you want, but rising pillars donít act responsibly until the Old Core gives them responsibility. Absent that, they create their own responsibility, and we typically end up unhappy with their choices.

Meanwhile on Chavez: this is a typical bad sign for a Big Man. In the Core, we buy weapons all the time that we never use or even intend to use, but not so in the Gap. There, in that Hobbesian world, it really is use-em-or-lose-em.

Egypt getting a thumbís up

■"Discovering Egyptian Gains: Investors," by Shumita Sharma, Wall Street Journal, 15 February 2005, p. C16.

Egypt is reforming economically under its new PM, driving up connectivity between itself and the outside world, so naturally money flows in, creating even more connectivity.

The Coreís job now is keeping that process and that flow moving. Happy confluences of events and people and motivations arenít easily arranged, so theyíre naturally scarce in history. Everyone likes to think that strategic planning is all about preparing for bad events and worse cases, when itís the exact opposite.

Mongolia finds its voice in the New Core

■"For Mongolians, E Is for English, F Is for Future," by James Brooke, New York Times, 15 February 2005, p. A1.

Great story on how Mongolia is pushing English as dominant second language. It wants to join the Core and that seems like the best direct-route bet.

The models are Singapore and South Korea, but the future is Muslim societies that see the writing on the wall, like Turkey and even Iraq. In Latin America, itís Chile thatís lead goose.

This is a huge advantage for us, a connectivity to be exploited and encouraged. And what have we done since 9/11? Weíve made this country a much less friendly place. Why? Out of fear and misplaced attention. We donít need interdiction, we need identification.

Europe is basically right across the board

■"Germany Pushes Proactive Path: Schroder to Use Bush Visit To Sell His Own Ideas, Calls For U.S. to Back Iran Talks," by Marc Champion and Frederick Kempe, Wall Street Journal, 16 February 2005, p. A13.

Neat article on what our European allies want from U.S.: want us to negotiate with Iran, want us to rethink the transatlantic relationship (letting Europe decide more); want us to forgive more Gap debt; want us to do more on CO2 emissions; want us to lighten up on China and let EU sell them arms; and want us to be more patient with Russia.

And you know what? Europe is right on all these points.

How hard would it be to make Europe happy? By my estimate: not at all.

If crazy Pakistan can have nukes . . .

■"Buses to Span Kashmir Line, Signaling Step in Peace Talks," by Somini Sengupta, New York Times, 17 February 2005, p. A5.

Pakistan has nukes. It has lotsa crazy, backward fanatics. Itís got corruption galore, plus narcotics, plus terrorists to spare. And itís given the technology to other states.

One thing it hasnít done yet is use them. Instead, having nukes evened out the military situation with India, and once the experience of MAD (mutually-assured destruction) settled in (it took about a quarter-century, just like with us and the Sovs), the nukes stopped being an issue between these two states.

Of course, that could never happen with Israel and Iran, because their hatred and fear for each other is unprecedented in human history!

No, peace is much more likely with one side holding nukes and the other feeling pissed off, disrespected, and that itís best option is supporting terrorist networks working beyond its borders.

Yes, that is the safer route thatís more likely to get us what we want.