The New Core tries "new" things

■"Cancer Therapy Dropped In U.S. Is Revived in China," by Andrew Pollack, New York Times, 25 February 2005, p. C4.

■"Soggy Steps Toward Space Walks," photo caption, New York Times, 25 February 2005, p. A14.

■"India's Cabinet Lifts Restraint On Land Investing," by Jay Solomon and Eric Bellman, Wall Street Journal, 25 February 2005, p. A16.

■"India's First Airline Offering Is Scooped Up in Minutes: Investors were willing to buy far more shares than were available," by Saritha Rai, New York Times, 25 February 2005, p. C5.

The New Core will be that part of the Core most willing to take risks in coming years. They have the biggest problems, the tallest tasks, and the most incentive to keep pressing on. We'll see these states push the envelope all the time, and one place they'll do it in medical science.

In the first story, a Chinese biotech firm picks up a technology abandoned by an American company years ago as too dangerous: a specific sort of gene therapy for cancer treatment. And this company (Shanghai Sunway Biotech) isn't just looking to use this therapy in China, it wants to get approval to use it in the U.S. as well, something the company does by gaining a license agreement from the original American developer, Onyx Pharmaceuticals.

Try this one on for size: "The first and only approval of a gene therapy by any regulatory agency in the world happened in China in 2003." Within years, it could be coming to an American hospital near you.

New Core, new rules.

Meanwhile, the Old Core is getting so tentative about things. America can barely explore space any more becauseóGod forbidósomeone might die in space! Japan's on the same wavelength, but for them it's their military forces in Iraq. Afraid they might lose their first soldier in combat since WWII, the Japanese peacekeepers in Iraq are guarded by other coalition troops.

Meanwhile, China pushes ahead with an iffy cancer treatment. Why the hell not? If you've ever been to China, you know how many people smoke there. That's where all the U.S. cigarette companies fled when we started outlawing smoking here in the States.

With China pushing such experimentation, India feels the need to remain as bold as possible in its own economic development. China's airline industry remains dominated by its state fleets, but India's got its low-cost, private-sector airlines up and running, and they're redefining the nature of air travel there. Yesterday, Jet Airways held an Initial Public Offering and received 13 times as many bids as it had stock available, sending its value soaring. Between it and Air Deccan, India's future as a market for air travel looks awfully bright all of a sudden. Meanwhile, stodgy Air India, owned by the state, gets left in the dust as the cheaper airlines race ahead. 15 million travelers now, but 50 million by 2010. That's why the industry and India in general is pulling in foreign direct investment at unprecedented levels. Not China levels, mind you, but approaching the same zip code.

And this flow is a virtuous one, generating more and more attempts by India to find new targets for this outside money, hence the recent cabinet decision to allow for foreign ownership of real-estate projects up to 100%:

"It is expected that allowed investment . . . in the construction-and-development sector would have a multiplier effect on the economy by boosting construction activities of all types," said Kamal Rath, India's minister of commerce and industry.

It's not a matter of being dominated by foreign companies, but letting in that competition to spur local efforts at development. Connectivity trumps disconnectedness. Creativity unleashed (and plenty of stealing/copying of foreign technologies), and the new rules ensue.

Chavez's shell game on oil

■"Oil Revenues Hide Chavez's Economic Ineptitude," op-ed by Vladimir Chelminski, Wall Street Journal, 25 February 2005, p. A19.

Chavez has had six years and it hasn't been good, according to a private business consultant in Caracas:

After six tumultuous years in power, the claim by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that he is leading Venezuelans toward greater prosperity cannot be sustained. Any serious analysis of our economy shows a dramatic deterioration in Venezuelan well-being. A series of feel-good government programs only help ameliorate the negatives that would otherwise accrue to Chavez with his disastrous handling of the economyÖ

A main characteristic of our repressed economy is the imposition of exchange and price controls two years ago. We've seen this move before. Venezuela had these controls from 1983 to 1989 and from 1994 to 1996. In both cases, corruption ballooned, and the economy sank. In the end, they had to be discarded amid scarcities and hyperinflation.

Another economically pernicious measure introduced by this government is property confiscation. Earlier this year, the country's most productive ranch, owned by the British company Vestay Group LTD since 1903, became the target of a potential confiscation with plans to partition it for "cooperatives." This may be popular with the poor but if the past is any guide, the newcomers will either starve or go back to where they came from. Meantime, the nation will have lost a major productive asset. Next we'll be wondering why there is not enough investment and job creation.

Mr. Chavez still has credibility among his disciples and his charisma may carry him for some time to come, despite rising crime, filthier cities, declining services, an expanding informal economy and more beggars in the street than ever before. His followers are so infatuated that they do not pay attention to the contradictions in his speech or his numerous promises never fulfilled. But when the price of oil comes down, the . . . bloom is sure to fall off the rose.

Rule Set Reset Issue #2

■"Groups Pledge to Account for Tsunami Aid: With billions of dollars in donations, efforts to avert fraud," by Elizabeth Becker and Stephanie Strom, New York Times, 25 February 2005, p. A4.

This article highlights one of the dynamics we've now come to expect with any major humanitarian disaster in the post-9/11 world, a subject I explore in my essay for the second edition of the Rule Set Reset, which we've decided to offer for free like the first one as part of The New Rule Sets Project's effort to establish its identity with potential partners and clients.

I think readers will be as impressed with the quality of the guest-written articles as there were with the first batch. Frankly, I've been amazed at who's been eager and willing to join this discussion. Put this creativity together with the stellar editing of my partner Bob Jacobson, the design of partner Steffany Hedenkemp, and the research efforts of our fourth, my webmaster Critt Jarvis, and it's a package we're very proud to lay out in front of the world.

Enjoy, and keep all the feedback coming. It's been invaluable so far and it's allowed us to get ready for our initial subscription issue coming in March.

A Standing Ovation . . .

Dateline: TED Conference, Monterey Conference Center, Monterey CA, 26 February 2005

That was pretty cool.

Probably the best 20 minutes of speaking I have ever done. Crowd interrupted with sustained applause maybe 3 times. But the standing ovation to end the piece was both very unexpected (haven't received one since a Y2K talk in front of a bunch of SysAdmins down in FL in 1999).

Then I asked the host, Chris Anderson, why I didn't win the Rave award. Joke on me: different Chris Anderson!

Coolest on the way out the door: Charles Fleischer (Roger Rabbit) met me in hall, said I was funnier than most comedians he's ever worked with, and offered to call my kids on tape with a customized message in the guise of Robert Rabbit!

I will definitely have him call Jerome on the 10th! (his fifth birthday).

My hands were shaking pretty bad during the talk, which hasn't happened to me in a very long time, but it was way cool.

Hanging in the basement, watching Ray Kurzweil; up next

Dateline: Monterey Conference Center, Monterey CA, 26 February 2005

Boy, am I glad I asked about the goody bag! I saw all these attendees, boxing up gear and mailing them out via FEDEX in the main hallway, and figured the goody bag must be pretty substantial.

So I asked at registration, and they put together the speaker package for me: two big brown bags and a big packback full of gear. Also got two Matt Groenig-autographed comic books (Simpsons, Futurama) for comic-obsessed son Kevin. Noticed nice poster of my head shot from book in main hall. Will try to snatch that for trip home. Already located a nice poster tube.

Set-up here pretty cool on stage: bunch of work-station portable tables where you simply hook up your Mac (almost everyone has one, and they're all the big 19" screen, which I'm glad I didn't get because my full-size screen is big enough and the larger screens don't yield a wider keyboard--the only reason why I'd get it). So my laptop already on stage, with my Interlink RF clicker. Wired up with mike that sticks out from around left year on tiny stick.

After getting all wired up, hung out in hallway during break, and met Peter Schwartz. Very nice to see him again. He introduced me to his boss at Fortune and the guy who invented "Ask Jeeves."

Well, Kurweil looks like he's running out of time, based on the slides he scrolled through beforehand. I'm heading upstairs because the intro here is minimal and then you just pop up on stage and roll. I am doing the SysAdmin-Leviathan break and the A-to-Z-rule-set packages and that's it for 18 minutes. I will be flying!

Feels good to be so nervous though. It gets rare for me. Good news is countdown clock in back so I will always know where I am.

At TED, up soon to talk

Dateline: Monterey Conference Center, Monterey CA, 26 February 2005

Got here yesterday late (long story I will tell in blog I post later today). Conference seems nice, but I hate going on in last session. Upside: Ray Kurweil is fellow panelist on future.

Rested, and get to present off my laptop. Have to sit through earlier session on "earth," but that allows me to gauge crowd and set-up a bit.

Will post yesterday's blog with news stories tonight, along with six "Reviewing the Reviews." After conference lunch, can get on bus with others and enjoy afternoon hike at Pt. Lobos, and I love hiking, so I'll do that. So I will log on in my room tonight, post yesterday, post reviews, and post story on TED presentation.

TED, I now understand, stands for Technology, Engineering and Design. Outstanding goody bag, I am told. Had to ask for mine to be built because I arrived so late and they ran out of much stuff, so we'll see what I end up with. Had nice Kodak digital camera waiting for me at hotel last night, which Kevin will love.

Music starting on first session of day, so have to run.

Wish me luck!

Good to be home, snow is falling

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 24 February 2005

Nothing beats being home. Nothing.

Almost hope the snow keeps me socked in tomorrow.

The longest day

Dateline: IcelandAir flight from Keflavik Airport to Boston Logan, 24 February 2005

It really is something when you fly west for long stretches, because it just ends up being a day that never seems to end. If youíre in good shape, and especially if youíre in business with a nice Mac, you can get a lot of work done, assuming the movie doesnít capture your attention too much (easy for me this time around, because IcelandAir doesnít have good movies and worse, it doesnít rotate them very quickly).

And Iím feeling good despite all the late-night drinking from yesterday. Fear Iíve come down with a bit of a cold, but it seems mild. Being able to hydrate and keep my legs stretched (row 1 the whole way back) has been great, and Iím always careful to wear my special flight support stockings that Vonne had made for us for our trip to China, and that helps a lot (no swelling from the long flight and a much reduced chance of deep-vein thrombosis).

I will definitely skip the wine on the last leg here.

Man, in reading the Financial Times, I have to say that it obsesses over China and India even more than the WSJ does, which I did not think possible, and yet there it is.

Mac question of the day: How do I delete text to the right of my cursor on a Mac? The ìdeleteî key only eats to the left. Is there no way to eat to the right?

Here's today's catch:

■ America is not in charge of how the rest of the Old Core integrates with China

■ Europe on Iran, China on North Korea, US on the sidelines

■ India and China: there is no point in choosing

■ Feeling for the Gap, wanting a better system for Core action

■ Americaís 51st stateóshhhhhhh!

■ Our shell-game ìWar on Drugsî in the Gap

■ Muslims finding their cinematic voice in Europe

Europe on Iran, China on North Korea, US on the sidelines

■"Bush to ëthink aboutí Europeís Iran strategy: Meeting with Schroder leads to ëconvergenceí on how to deal with nuclear tthreat (US president still insists Tehran must give ground)," by James Harding and Huge Williamson, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 1.

■"China applies gentlest of flicks to Pyongyangís reins: Beijing resists manipulating North Korea dependence on Chinese oil and food supplies," by Richard McGregor and Anna Fifield, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 7.

Europe leads on Iran, while China hosts the six-party talks. If nothing else, this signals the limits of U.S. military power right now: our inability to do the SysAdmin job in Iraq means thereís little we can do on either Iran or North Korea. Ultimately, weíll end up living with the consequences of this strategic weakness, which is why weíd be so much better off seeking dramatically better answers in the short-term with serious leadership instead of watching from the sidelines. Iran will get the bomb, and Europe will end up making the deal. North Korea will eventually implode, and what Asia will get is a dominating China with America nowhere in sight.

These things are going to happen. Our strategy right now seems only to consist of holding them off for as long as possible. The neocons feel burned by their one attempt at a System Perturbation, which is too bad, because itís working wonders in the Middle East, but when you basically beg off hot pursuit of the initial conditions youíve altered, itís like youíve thrown the ball down to the five-yard-line in football, only to punt on the next down. Youíve got to laugh when you hear the notion that somehow the neocons are running the world right now. If anyone is, itís China and India by sheer default: their strategic rise provokes more vision and diplomacy than anything weíre doing. Weíve set off the Big Bang in the Middle East to do what? Return back to the same myopic fears of balance-of-power dynamics that the Bush administration seemed so consumed by prior to 9/11? These are very important years for a lack of U.S. global leadership, for growing and securing the Core will always out-shadow shrinking the Gap as THE strategic task.

And you know what? Whenever America gives off that zero-sum vibe regarding the rising New Core, we accomplish exactly what we need to avoid in coming years: we convince the Core that weíre probably quite zero-sum in our efforts to shrink the Gap. That impression just moves other Core powers to focus on integration with one another while hoping that those crazy Americans will remains obsessed with security and bogged down in the Gap.

China holds real cards on North Korea, and we see fit not to exploit that connectivity whatsoever because of our larger fears about China. Kim survives on oil and food from China, all of which stream across just three rail lines and 15 roads. But if youíre China and you see the U.S. constantly working to limit its quest for security, of course your chief fear on North Korea is that those crazy Americans will start something that youíll be left to deal with militarily. I mean, look at Americaís postwar effort in Iraq!

But you gotta know that Beijing fears a nuclear North Korea greatly, but not directly. A nuclear Kim could easily drive both South Korea oróeven more likelyóJapan into a similar nuclear stance, something Beijing fears far more. This isnít my analysis: itís the analysis of Cheng Fenguin of Beijing University. As he notes, ìTaiwan will also find excuses to start its own nuclear programme.î

Add it all up and tell me we canít put together a package on Kim that Beijing could buy into. But instead, what do we do? We get Japan to join our little security package on Taiwan.

This, my friends, is what passes for strategic vision right now in DC.

America is not in charge of how the rest of the Old Core integrates with China

■"What trans-Atlantic crisis? A common grand design underpins the major industrialized democracies," op-ed by Mohammed Ayoob, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 6.

■"Europeans see pluses in ending China bad: Commercial ties and diplomacy lead to dispute with U.S.," by Mark Landler, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 1.

■"Chinaís focus on Galileo pinpoints US security fears: Beijingís involvement in Europeís rival navigation service to GPS has Washington chiefs worried," by Raphael Minder, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 16.

■"Nokia makes the call: China will be No. 1 (Chief sees it passing U.S. in next 3 years," by Chris Buckley, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 15.

■"Pouring oil on the East China Sea: The East Chine Sea is one of the last unexplored high-potential hydrocarbon areas near large markets," by Mark J. Valencia, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 7.

Ayoob captures the strong sense I get from two recent trips to Europe: the trans-Atlantic bond isnít the issue to worry about. That will remain strong. Whatís going to change dramatically in coming years is both Europeís and Americaís relationships with New Core players China, India, Brazil and Russia. Yes, there will be a lot of hand-wringing over our focus on security with all these players while Europe will seem far more obsessed with forging economic ties. And if we let a focus on security put us at a long-term disadvantage with these markets, then weíll have nobody to blame other than ourselves and our leadershipís continuing tendency to think about war within the context of war instead of in the context of everything else. The Global War on Terrorism is the top security issue; but security issues simply do not dominate as much as Americans and especially the Bush administration seem to think.

Europe is going to end the arms ban on China, not because itís that hot to sell arms to China (the US remains, by far, Europeís bigger market in that regard), but because it wants that military-market nexus to pay off in deeper economic ties over time. As Landler writes:

But there is much more at stake in the decision by Europe than whether it sells French fighter jets or German submarines to Beijing: namely, broader commercial ties and some genuine diplomacy . . .

ìEurope wants to sell cars and perfume in China,î said Willem van der Geest, the director of the European Institute for Asian Studies, a research group in Brussels. ìIts nonmilitary economic objectives weigh far more in this decision than any gains it would get from selling arms.î

Israel and Russia have never honored this ban, and soon Europe wonít either, and what it adds to the military mix wonít shift much of anythingóthe economics are doing that all by itself.

China will simply connect itself up, and no matter how we might try to narrow that process to trade while downplaying any nexus to security, China will not be denied. That connectivity, like linking up with and investing in Europeís Galileo system (their rival to GPS), will define a growing military-market nexus between Europe and China. Trying to prevent that just puts us on the outside of this integration process within the Core, instead of at the middle of it. No one can steer Chinaís military emergence more than we, but we are choosing to abdicate the strategic opportunity out of fear. Weíll achieve nothing but our growing irrelevance in this process. China and India will be #2 and #3, respectively, in the global economy (measured at Parity Purchasing Power) within my professional lifetimeóeasily. So I make the point of shaping my strategic vision around an inescapable reality. As Robert Wright wrote in Nonzero: rule #1 for running the world is donít fight inevitabilities. This is geostrategic martial arts, while too many leaders around the world are stuck in some myopic balance-of-power mindset. In this, I fear we run up against the lack of imagination and vision with the Bush administration, reminding me of why I supported Kerry and Edwards in í04.

Nokia gives yet another example of why this shift in rule-set creation is undeniable: China will surpass the US as its #1 cellphone market within 3 years, according to its CEO. India is hot on its tail. China will account for roughly a quarter of global cellphone growth in the next five years, with subscribers more than doubling from 330m to 700m. And guess where most of that growth comes from? From Chinaís Gap-like interior regions. Cellphones have reached the point of being the razor you give away in order to capture the customerís demand for blades.

Are we gonna fight with China over its access to Galileo? Hardly. And Japan isnít going to fight with China over East China Sea gas and oil. Theyíre simply going to compromise, with the most logical route being Japan providing money to Chinaís exploration and development in return for cheaper prices on the resulting flow. Why? The economic relationship that develops between the two will determine the military relationship. Yes, we can talk Japan into some tough wording on Taiwan, but 10 years from now, count on Japan being more interested in pleasing Beijing on security than the United States. Weíre dreaming if we think weíre preventing that somehow. We can either lock-in on Chinaís strategic price now or let others be drawn into that economic undertow. But no missile shield nonsense is going to break those growing bonds or negate the resulting military-market nexus that China inevitably builds with both Europe and Japan.

Feeling for the Gap, wanting a better system for Core action

■"The fate of failed states is our shared responsibility: The rights of human beings are far more important than the rights of more or less dysfunctional states to do what they wish," op-ed by Martin Wolf, Financial Times, 23 February 2005, p. 15.

■"Donít look away this time: If the victim was a man, he was probably castrated; if a woman, she was probably raped," op-ed by Nicholas D. Kristof, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 6.

Another great piece by Martin Wolf, whose book, Why Globalization Works, features prominently in Vol. II

First he talks about fragile and failed states and offers some good observations (by others) on the boundaries of this problem set. The UK government lists 46 countries as ìfragile,î with a population of 900m (14% of world total), with Indonesia and Nigeria being the biggies. The World Bankís more limited definition yields 11 such nations (Afghanistan, Angola, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Haiti, Liberia, Burma, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabweóall Gap, naturally), with an additional 16 named as Low-Income Countries Under Stress LICUS), yielding a global total of 165m.

Wolfís main points are these:

First, we must accept the principle of qualified sovereignty . . .

Second, we must also embrace the principle of ìdo no harmî . . .

Third, we should invest more in prevention . . .

Fourth, we need the ability to respond swiftly and decisively to crises . . .

Finally, we need to achieve full integration of development assistance with other actions, including security interventions, in fragile and failing states.

Hard to do? Sure, as I explore in Vol. II, but as Wolf ends: ìall the alternatives are far worse.î

The ìfar worseî is on display in Sudan right now, as Kristof likes to keep harping. Today he runs some tame photos of dead kids and a skeleton whose pants are obviously pulled down around its knees, indicating sexual assault before execution:

One wrenching photo in the archive shows the manacled hands of a teenager from the girlsí school in Suleia who was burned alive. Itís been common for the Sudanese militias to gang-rape teenage girls and then mutilate or kill them.

Another photo shows the body of a young girl, perhaps 10 years old, staring up from the ground where she was killed. Still another shows a man who was castrated and shot in the head.

Kristof cites reasonable estimates that close to a quarter-million are dead in this manner, with numbers accumulating at roughly 10,000 a month. When I argue for the A-to-Z Core-wide system for processing politically-bankrupt states, I donít see it as some distant goal for distant problems, but a serious, short-term answer for ongoing genocide thatís occurring on our watch.

Kristof wants sanctions, a no-fly zone, freezing of government assets, killers sent off to the International Criminal Court, a ìteam effortî by Arab and African states to pressure Sudan (good luck with that one) and an international peacekeeping force of Africans (even less plausible), but one with financing and logistical support from the Core (now weíre getting somewhere).

What Kristof wants is what I want: a system to deal with these sorts of atrocities, and waiting on the Gap to come up with one on its own, or the UN, is simply fanciful. Itíll be a group of Core heavyweights. Itíll look like a Star Chamber and the vengeance will smack of Dirty Harry-like retribution.

And thatíll be a very good thingónot sort of good, not kind of good, but absolutely good.

India and China: there is no point in choosing

■"On the move: Asiaís giants take different routes in pursuit of economic greatness," by Martin Wolf, Financial Times, 23 February 2005, p. 13.

■"A share of spoils: Beijing and New Delhi get mutual benefits from growing trade," by Edward Luce and Richard McGregor, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 13.

I love all that talk about how weíre going to use India to balance China militarily in Asia. People who push that line simply are not paying attention. China and India themselves see their dual rise as very complimentary.

Yes, there are key differences, as Martin Wolf points out in his excellent piece:

Both are the heirs of great civilizations. But Chinaís civilization is inseparable from its state, while Indiaís is inseparable from its social structure, above all the role of caste.

This difference permeates the two countriesí histories and contemporary performance. As Lord Desai of the London School of Economics has noted, ìfor India, the problem [is] achieving unity in diversity.î China, however, is a ìunitary hard state, which can pursue a single goal with determination and mobilize maximal resources in its achievementîÖ

China has accept both growth and social transformation. India welcomes growth but tries to minimize social dislocation. The Chinese state sees development as both its goal and the foundation of legitimacy. Indian politicians see the representation of organized interests as their goal and the foundation of their legitimacy. Chinese politics are developmental, while Indiaís remain predominately clientelist.

Wolf sees both countries as having to reform their political and economic institutions greatly in order to achieve further development, but like me, he sees this as ìboth constraints and opportunities.î

And you know what? Both nations see each other increasingly as an opportunity. Bilateral trade is skyrocketing, and economists and planners on both sides are coming to the realization that there is a lot of complimentarity in their development pathsóone focusing on manufacturing and the other on services:

India and China are even exploring ways of joining forces to find cheap sources of supply and boost their competitiveness. There is increasing awarenessóespecially in Indiaóthat, far from competing in a zero sum game, both countries are growing at such a speed that there is enough room for each to accommodate greater productive capacityÖ

ìThe issue is not competition between India and Chinaóthere is no way production can keep up with demand in either country,î says a senior executive at Tata [Indiaís biggest private-sector consortium]. ìThe real question is how quickly what remains of global production will move to China, India and Brazilî Ö

The two countries are also tentatively exploring areas of co-operation, for example as partners for joint purchases in markets such as energy and commercial aircraft. Such a prospect, which Boeing or Airbus would not welcomeóis so far not much more than talk. Nevertheless, there is a determination in both capitals to consider the unmatchable economies of scale that would be available to them as joint buyers of some of the materials and technology that both countries lack.

A side story on ìStrategic parity prompts a neighbourly respectî gets to the point of the military-market nexus quite clearly:

Indiaís economic emergence is openlyncouraged by the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations, which has become increasingly concerned about the growing preponderance of China. In much the same way as the US hopes India will become a geopolitical counterweight to China over the next decades, ASEAN hopes India will become an economic counterweight.

That may be premature. India, with its sensitivity about sovereignty, bristles at being asked to play roles on behalf of other countries. But economic ties between India and China will continue to grow and a convergence of the two giantsí broader interests at the World Trade Organization and elsewhere will help bring them closer together.

Like I say, lock in at todayís prices or pay higher ones tomorrow, but Chinaís rise will embed them deeply within the Core on security affairs. We can seek to lead that process or we better be prepared to get out of the way.

Muslims finding their cinematic voice in Europe

■"German Turks mine rich cultural seam of migrant life," by Bertrand Benoit, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 3.

I like any signs that Muslims are finding either their political or artistic voices in Europe.

This article speaks to a number of rising film makers from the immigrant Muslim community who are learning to express themselves in the mass media.

And Germany better learn to get happy with this, because if Muslims canít express themselves out in the open, theyíll continue to ghettoize themselves in ìcultural cocoonsî that presage a ìparallel society.î Satellite TV works both ways in globalization: allowing the Gap to see what itís missing and for Gap migrants workers and immigrants living in the Core to zone out of their daily lives with narrow media connectivity back home. Ghettos form in response to the lack of personal connectivity for immigrants living in the Core, they donít prevent it per se (although they can certainly reinforce disconnectedness).

Media represents society. If you donít want parallel societies, donít let parallel media predominate. But also donít expect immigrants not to connect up somehow to something that features descriptions of life they can recognize and see themselves within.

Our shell-game ìWar on Drugsî in the Gap

■"US seeks Colombian help on drugs," by Andy Webb-Vidal, Financial Times, 24 February 2005, p. 6.

Scary to think we want to apply same deal to Afghanistan as we have to Colombia, home of one of the worldís longest civil wars, which should tell you plenty about the success of our War on Drugs down there. We spray drug crops in Colombia and simply drive that effort into national parks. In Afghanistan, weíre sure to achieve similar ìsuccess,î while poisoning the land and its people (you canít tell me itís benign).

Does anyone think we shrink the Gap in this manner? Or just keep it the way it is, while we get the drugs?

Americaís 51st stateóshhhhhhh!

■"Latin migrants gain political clout in U.S.," by Ginger Thompson, International Herald Tribune, 24 February 2005, p. 5.

Fascinating article about politicians in the central Mexican state of Zacatecas, who politic and campaign as much inside the stateís expatriate population living in the US as back home. Why? In some of the bigger cities, like Valparaiso, they have half their population living in the U.S. on a regular basis, sending back $100,000 a day! Or roughly what the city of Valparaiso spends all year in its public-sector budget:

The remittances sent home by migrant workers, both legal and illegal, are translating into political clout. Their communities in the United States, better organized and more vocal than before, have become social and political forces too important to ignore.

It is a phenomenon that has made Washington a principal battleground to lobby support among Salvadorans for the Central American Free Trade Agreement; New York a crucial state in elections in the Dominican Republic; and Chicago a mandatory campaign stop for Mexican politicians.

Next presidential election, 10 million Mexicans living in the U.S. will be able to vote in the context south of the border, if legislation just approved in their legislature passes as predicted. So itís not just the rising role of Hispanics in the U.S. political system that brings us together, but the role of those same Hispanics in the domestic politics of their home countries.

Latino migrants send back $45 billion to the Caribbean and Latin America every year, outdistancing both foreign direct investment and official developmental aid (three years in a row now). Those voices, connected to that money, are getting organized politically in the U.S., and back in their home countries. Their power is getting impossible for any American politician to ignore.

As for Zacatecas the state, over half its population live in the U.S., primarily in California, Illinois and Texasóthree huge electorial states in our national elections.

Do you know what the governor of Zacatecas said? Amalia Garcia, who regularly travels to the U.S., says ìI consider Zacatecas as a binational state.î

The concept of growing America isnít a choice and it sure as hell isnít about military conquest. Itís an economic reality based on connectivity. Itís undeniableóand itís coming in leaps and bounds.

Back in Iceland for the moment

Dateline: Keflavik Airport, Reykyavik Iceland, 24 February 2005

Long, crazy but fun day yesterday. After I posted yesterday at the college, off a PC in the reception area, I realized that I had left my Lexar memory stick in the library PC the day before. Good thing too, because it's worth a chunk of money! Plus it had copies of stuff I wanted.

Then I headed in and caught the end portion of Chet Richards' brief to the students and staff, or the part where he covered PNM and compared it to Col. Hammes' book (already folded into Vol. II) and other stuff by 4GW luminaries Bill Lind and the granddaddy of them all, John Boyd. In the end, he agrees with my stuff more than disagrees, and I've come to appreciate his approach now that I've seen him live.

Then off to another lunch in the cafeteria, where I made a strong effort to focus on fruit after eating so much meat and fish the past few days (Atkins heaven!).

When Richards finished up in the afternoon, we held two 45-minute plenary sessions with Ole from Denmark (my fellow Wisconsinite) serving as moderator and Hammes, Richards and I taking questions from the audience. As so often delights me in these settings, everyone was picking up and using the Core-Gap and Leviathan-SysAdmin terminology and running with it. I also got to make a bunch of arguments from Vol. II that sound better each time I say them because each time I say them I explain them better (practice!).

After we close out at 3pm, the school gives us nice, engraved brandy snifters with the Sjokriegsskolen logo on it.

Back in the car, we return to the hotel, noticing on the way that the killer outlet sweater shop is finally open after being strangely closed all week. So Hammes and I rush over and, having received instructions from my wife reiterating her desire for sweaters for all (I personally almost never wear one) for the kids' Xmas picture next fall (Vonne being the real strategic planner in the house). I got ones for Jerry, Kevin and Em for about $50 each. I could have bought cheaper, but when it's cheap, it's smarter to buy the real high quality.

So I return with sweaters for all but me, leaving--as I imagine will have to be the case once my wife sees it--the German infantry bayonet from WWII as my personal souvenir (along with the usual coins and various gifts).

So back to my room to work my taxes until we head out for the night. We assemble downstairs and are driven back to the war college for the last time for a rather elegant and wonderfully drawn-out (as in many courses and many different types of wine and liquor, etc.) banquet that ends, I think, around 2130 with another cool, engraved coffee mug, a similar beer stein, and then a nice war college plaque (nice to have received one from somebody's naval war college!)

Then we retreat to a private bar/reception area where we drink until about 1am. This last part was the best, because the conversation was most free-flowing (like the beer and cognac) and I really got a huge amount of very positive feedback on the book from some very excited and grateful readers, which, when combined with alcohol, is otay!

Back to the hotel around 2am and then up at 0930 for last breakfast at hotel, packing and out the door. Short Scandanavian Airlines flight to Oslo (like Boston to DC), where my connection is tight, so I have to rush to cash out my duty-free purchases (getting $43 back on the sweaters using these special receipts--just like in Denmark). Then I hop on my IcelandAir flight (back to business class) and I endure the modern remake of "Out of Towners" (at least I really like Steve Martin and Goldie Hawn, but I saw it flying back from Copenhagen too!). But I got a lot of paperwork done on the flight (taxes and more separation from the government stuff) and had a great meal (salad with lamb). Now hanging here in the funky biz class lounge for another 20 minutes before cutting out to the roughly 5-hour flight home.

Having read Financial Times all week, I have to admit, the next time I get a decent offer on it from a frequent flier program, I will take it up, or maybe I'll just get it online, because it¥s that good.

Got a bunch of hugs to deliver and time to spend with kids tonight, plus set a few paperwork things straight, plus get my ass to bed quick because I have to get up early and drive to TF Green Airport in PVD for a three-leg journey to Monterey for the TED conference, which began today--I believe.

I keep telling myself that it¥s first class on the two cross-continent sections, and that it¥s supposed to be a big honor to be invited to talk--for 18 minutes and no more! But the travel wears, and I wish I didn¥t have to go. The free talks just wear nowadays, but I'll have to hope the payoff exists somewhere down the road. I did PopTech! this year and got Leigh Bureau in the process, so that was certainly worth it.

Still, the travel wears. . .

The more I stay in Norway, the more I understand Wisconsin

Dateline: Sj¯krigsskolen (Sea War School), Bergen Norway, 23 February 2005

Splitting headache of the sort I associate with the pace of travel and high-pressure systems. Feeling a bit worn down, but maybe that's the 10 percent alcohol beer from last night, which really was delicious.

The more I hang around here, the more I understand my childhood home of Wisconsin, which is full of Norwegians.

Bought a couple of nice sweaters for wife and baby yesterday. Thinking of some basic toys for four-year-old Jerry. Not sure what to do with Em, since she vetoed the reindeer pelt via email (too bad, cause it's pretty cool). For Kevin, my older boy, I found something that I think will meet his newly heightened interest in WWII: an authentic German Mauser bayonet with its cover. It's in awfully good condition, with even the lock (for clipping on to rifle) still working. The workmanship is amazing, as is the weight.

Got it at an antique store where the guy had substantial amounts of Norwegian and German and U.S. military gear going back to WWI. Germans were here in WWII for roughly five years, so people find stuff in fields even today, but by now it will be incredibly rusted out (he showed me one of those). Authenticity determined by codes on bayonet that you can look up in books (he seemed to have them all). Owner still rides a German 1942 military motorcycle with side car. He said he used it to plough fields as a boy because the Germans had eaten all the horses. That was one fascinating hour of shopping, my favorite piece being a plaque from a Russian military shooting contest in 1906. He said a lot of Russians fled to Norway with the revolution, so this stuff floats around still.

Kevin will be amazed with it, and I just couldn't resist. He really loves my Dad's naval flare gun from WWII and Gen. George Barnett's rifle from WWI. This guy had a US Army flare gun from WWII as well, but I liked the bayonet better and it was priced more reasonably. I'm sure Kev will like it and I like the idea of using it to educate him more fully on WWII, the pivotal event of the 20th century. Amazing to think, I was born only 17 years after it ended, because it seems like such ancient history today. Growing up as a kid, though, this stuff, these men, this history was just lying or walking around all over the place. Now it becomes ever so rare, artifacts from a bygone age. The last real great power war. To me, worth remembering in all its complexity, in part because I grew up in its shadow and its imagery has shaped my professional life profoundly--namely, the desire to avoid its reoccurrence.

Holding the bayonet in my hand made me think of all the fears Stephen Ambrose described in his "D-Day" and "Band of Brothers" books: the fear among Americans as to whether or not they could stand up militarily against the Germans with all their superior military hardware/technology. I mean, the stuff they cranked industrially was very impressive, just as it is today--just amazing design and production values. So when the Nazis kicked ass in the opening years of the war, you can see why there was so much trepidation about fighting them. But that was the stunning success that was the Normandy invasion and the march on Berlin, even if it was mainly our production capacity against their mostly superior technology.

On the news:

1) February 23, 2005

New York Times

Bush Says Europe Should Not Lift Its China Arms Embargo

By ELISABETH BUMILLER



BRUSSELS, Feb. 22 - A simmering dispute with Europe came to the forefront on Tuesday when President Bush said there was "deep concern" in the United States that lifting the European Union's arms embargo against China would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan.

The issue has been one of the few disagreements to spill into the open during Mr. Bush's trip to repair relations across the Atlantic. He and European leaders have worked intently to ease hard feelings over the Iraq invasion, and they have played down the conflict that has risen in the last few months over the arms embargo. Even as he expressed his concerns on Tuesday, Mr. Bush insisted that he was willing to listen to European views on the issue . . .

This just isn't going to work. The US can't trade with and invest in China like crazy, sell arms to both Taiwan and Japan, and then tell the EU not to do the same with China on both trade and arms. We just don't get to decide which other Core powers get to arm and under what conditions. China's rising economically, and like any other country in such a trajectory, it builds up and modernizes its military. We can't stop that, but we can shape it and work to make that process dovetail with a rising security alliance between us two. But the Bush Admin seems to think they're in the driver's seat on this one, when they're not. I mean, China's supposed to keep buying our debt so we can spend lots on our military and then we get to tell them what they can or cannot buy in military arms?

2) Japanís population set to fall from next year

By David Pilling in Tokyo

Financial Times (the only hard-copy paper I get here)

Published: February 22 2005 08:59 | Last updated: February 22 2005 19:01

The number of men in Japan has begun to shrink for the first time since records began, heralding a fall in the overall population from next year.

The decline in the number of men signals a historic shift in Japan's population, the ageing of which is likely to have a profound influence on the country's pension system, labour market and tax base . . .

This turning point has arrived for Japan, but Europe is right on its heels and we're not that many years behind. Japan will be in the lead on this, and so it will establish many of the important early rule sets. Something to watch, as the Japanese redefine old age.

3) China allows banks to establish mutual funds

By Financial Times reporters

Published: February 21 2005 05:58 | Last updated: February 21 2005 05:58

China has officially allowed commercial banks to launch their own mutual fund ventures, a move designed to shore up its fledging capital market and expand lendersí revenue sources but may pose challenges to existing fund managers.

The new rules, jointly announced by Chinaís central bank and the banking and stock market regulators on Sunday, allow commercial banks to set up mutual funds that can immediately invest in the less risky money and bonds markets.

The move offers Chinese banks a rare opportunity to expand beyond their traditional lending operations and get better prepared for more intense competition as China gradually opens the sector to foreigners. Many investors and analysts also see it as the first step towards eventually allowing banks to invest directly in Chinaís stock market.

Banks that get the approval for setting up funds must strictly separate the fund business from their traditional operations to lower risk, said the new rules. They can also set up fund management joint ventures with foreign partners . . .

This one I clipped as soon as I saw it. Another sign of China trying to ape the West's financial markets. Amazingly, the stock markets there last year lost money, despite the huge growth rate. Why? Weak rule sets on brokerages kept money out. So now the Chinese are trying to make it seem more safe. No capital, no capitalism, one of the big rules I explore at length in Vol. II.

4) US signals hard line on China military threat

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and James Harding and Daniel Dombey

in Brussels and Mure Dickie in Beijing

Financial Times

Published: February 20 2005 20:37 | Last updated: February 20 2005 20:37

The Pentagon is preparing to ratchet up its assessment of the threat of Chinaís expanding military, in a signal that the Bush administration is increasingly concerned about Chinaís growing ambitions in the region.

The 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review, the formal assessment of US military policy, will take a more pessimistic view of the challenge posed by an emerging Chinese superpower than the 2001 overview.

Last week Douglas Feith, the under-secretary of defence for policy, said that the rise of China was one of the most important issues being examined in the review, which is expected to be completed this autumn . . .

Amazing, but the further we get from the Iraq war, the more the old habits kick in. It's like the Global War on Terrorism is fading and we're retreating into a more passive focus on big pieces like China. Bush's foreign policy is reverting to its pre-9/11 form, and that's bad news for both China and business.

5) Bush Says Russia Must Make Good on Democracy

By ELISABETH BUMILLER

New York Times

Published: February 22, 2005

BRUSSELS, Feb. 21 - President Bush warned Russia on Monday that it "must renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law," but said he believed that the nation's future lay "within the family of Europe and the trans-Atlantic community" . . .

Same seems to be true on Russia. You have to wonder if Bush admin has decided that their criticism of Clinton admin is now starting to apply to them--namely, that they've let things slide too much with fellow great powers. Scary thing about this dynamic: how we get back into good graces with Europeans (or at least try) is to push for diplomacy on Iran and North Korea by others while simultaneously pushing Europe to join our harder stances vis-a-vis China and Russia.

Will be interesting to see how getting tougher on Russia and China will solve our issues with North Korea and Iran--really interesting.

When the Europeans here say they suspect there is no such thing as an overarching grand strategy in America's approach to the world, I have no good counter-arguments. It does indeed seem like we're pursuing a host of policies that cannot possibly work with one another, and nobody seems to be noticing in this administration.

Big brief done, now the shopping

Dateline: library in Norwegian Naval War College, Bergen Norway, 22 February 2005

First the bad news: didn't win the Wired Rave award for top author. It went to the guy who wrote a book on the brain. Still nice to get nominated. Sure glad I didn't skip this trip for that. Still, sad, or should I say "sÊd"? Or maybe "sÂd"?

Learning to like the Scan keyb¯rd!

Finished the brief today, then had nice lunch and asked for access to PC. Got online at library and realize now my problems of last two days due to hotel, not the email. So I catch up on all email here.

Fun to watch all the young officers hang out in library to watch cross-country skiing sports on widescreeen TV here--like watching NFL or NBA. Big deal here. Not a lot of scoring though . . .

Nicer room for last third of brief today, then I signed about hÊlf-d¯zen books.

Okay, I'll cut it ¯ut--no rÊlly!

People here eat a lot of meat, and I mean morning noon and night.

Today I try to buy some cool sweaters for family back home, although considering reindeer pelt for Em. These are pretty cool. Still, the Rudolf factor . . ..

Some stuff I saw in press that caught my eye:

1) Prisoner Uprising In Iraq Exposes New Risk for U.S.
Nonlethal Weapons Proved Ineffective as Chaos Spread
By Bradley Graham
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 21, 2005; Page A01

We have so underspent on NLT (non-lethal tech) for so long and now it haunts us so clearly. Will the USMC and US Army finally heed Tony Zinni's advice coming out of Somalia a decade ago?

2)Army Having Difficulty Meeting Goals In Recruiting
Fewer Enlistees Are in Pipeline; Many Being Rushed Into Service
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 21, 2005; Page A01
The active-duty Army is in danger of failing to meet its recruiting goals, and is beginning to suffer from manpower strains like those that have dropped the National Guard and Reserves below full strength, according to Army figures and interviews with senior officers .

Rumsfeld pushed what he could over first admin in terms of transformation, mostly in people, organization, and strategy. Now that perfect storm of budgets and embarrassments of Iraq occupation meet his ability to survive as SECDEF, he will get his way on a load of things in coming months. It is crucial he stay in power now. The Army is cracking finally, and big change is coming.

3) Bush Arrives in Europe for Meetings With Leaders
Unity and Democracy Will Be Major Themes
By Michael A. Fletcher
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 21, 2005; Page A18

A senior administration official said the United States had no intention of directly joining ongoing talks aimed at restraining Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program, although many European officials have expressed concern that the talks involving Britain, France, Germany and Iran will fail without U.S. involvement.

"The issue and the problem is Iran's behavior," the U.S. official said. "My sense is that the Europeans want to talk to us in exactly those terms, which is the right way to talk about it."

Similarly, the official said, the United States had "real problems" with E.U. plans to lift an arms embargo imposed on China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

This is bad news. Only way we can make nice with Europe is to pair Iran and China? Where are we going with this? Linking India next? Where do we expect these countries to find energy in future? Who's knee-capping whom on growth here? This is not a viable long-term strategy.

4) Insurgents Wage Precise Attacks on Baghdad Fuel
By JAMES GLANZ
Published: February 21, 2005
The new attack patterns reveal that the insurgents have a deep understanding of the Iraqi capital's infrastructure network.

We need to wage peace SysAdmin-style because our enemies are already waging insurgency SysAdmin-style. Again, we change not because it's cool or progressive but because we lose otherwise.

5)China Accuses U.S. and Japan of Interfering on Taiwan
By JIM YARDLEY and KEITH BRADSHER

Published: February 21, 2005

EIJING, Feb. 20 - China accused Japan and the United States on Sunday of meddling in its internal affairs, and criticized a new joint security statement in which the two countries declared a peaceful Taiwan Strait as among their "common strategic objectives."

The mention of Taiwan in the statement issued Saturday by senior American and Japanese officials drew a firm response from China, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province and is acutely sensitive to what it regards as outside interference. By contrast, Taiwan's foreign minister cautiously welcomed the statement.

Neither Japan or U.S. gains anything real in this act, and just reveals our fears of being divided and conquered by China's rising economic power. I mean, come on! Does adding Japan to that mix do anything to deter China? Or does it just make them feel more vulnerable? And who thinks that is in our long-term interest? Again, where are we going with this over the long haul? Does anybody in the White House pay attention to how much China buys our T-bills or funnels its trade surplus with U.S. back into the secondary mortgage market? Our heads are up our asses on this one.

My quick dump. Will try to check in tomorrow after lunch.

The big brief in Bergen

Dateline: Hotel same as last night, Bergen Norway, 21 February 2005

Slept through my alarm this morning, so had to rush out the door. Driven to Naval Academy with fellow instructors Chet Richards and Col. Thomas X. Hammes (USMC) by our collective host Ole, who BTW spent a portion of his childhood with his astronomer father in SE Wisconsin.

Jumping right in, I brief the students (all in uniform) in a steep classroom theatre from roughly 9:15 to noon. We then break for a nice lunch. School is right on one of the fjords, so fairly stunning view that reminds me of Bar Harbor ME. Then we return to class and I brief from 1300 to 1500.

At that point I am released for day and accompany the colonel for a ride up one of the cityís mountains on a cable car-like system that works largely by gravity (one car goes up as the other goes down, and they pass each other in the middle where the track splits to allow them passageóall very clever). A beautiful view from the mountain top, where I snap a few photos with my cell phone camera, which I will post later.

Tonight, we all get together (Ole, colonel, Chet and his spouse and me) and split some beers that Ole brings to the hotel (insanely expensive here, so Ole brings some cans from far more moderately priced Denmark next door, where he lives). Then after dinner in the hotel buffet-style restaurant, where I eat too much (8-of-9 has never learned to behave at a buffetójust not in my genes, and, at this rate, I soon wonít be either (jeans, that is)).

Then I while away night watching a brilliant BBC production on Mary Queen of Scots.

Feeling a bit weird with the time change, but then I always do. I did a very extended version of the brief over the five hours, with intermittent Q&A. Tomorrow I will finish the rest between 0900 and noon.

The students, I feel, are getting their moneyís worth. Meanwhile, based on where they go with the questions, I am feeling better and better about the Vol. II.

OMYGOD!

I remember talking about an image that described the content of the two books in yesterdayís post, or at least I think I remember that.

But I forgot to upload.

Here it is. . .

When in Bergen, try the fish

Dateline: Hotell Bryggen Orion, Bergen Norway, 20 February 2005

I was hallucinating at the end of the my last post. No eggs, but some interesting meat substances. Ate so long I barely got on the plane in time. Had a row to myself.

Took the pill for the flight from Iceland to Oslo and missed the entire thing. It was boom-chaka-lak-huh? Started reading an article in Newsweek and never finished it.

Weird, but no one asked to see my passport in Norway when we landed. When I flashed the badge in Iceland, I entered ìScandanaviaî for real, so nothing more required.

I was pretty groggy getting off plane is Oslo, and it took me a while to realize I needed to grab my checked luggage, even though I was ticketed through to Bergen. But that was what was weird: I had to pick up my luggage and resubmit it for the domestic flight component, but I didnít have to show either a ticket or my passport. So the drill was sort of like landing in a new country (move your luggage) but then not (no customs).

Fell asleep in lounge waiting for plane. Nice older guy sitting next to me tapped me awake or Iíd be there still. No biz class on third leg, and that was disappointing, since I slept through it all (the hot towels, the wine, everything!) on the second leg.

Then again, some sleep is required.

My naval commander host is waiting for me at Bergen airport with a copy of my book, so I recognize him versus vice-versa. I donít follow the Esquire fashion rule of dressing up for plane rides like theyíre still a privilege. No, I go comfy in some stylish casual my wife bought me for the China trip.

He drives me to Bergen and I take in the sites along the way. Pretty warm here. Snow-capped mountains a plenty, but little snow here on coast. Much like Rhode Island to be exact. Bergen is the second biggest city in Norway at just under a quarter-million, but itís really dispersed among these seven mountains that pop up along the coast, so you donít really get a sense of big city.

The old-town center here was one of the key pillars of the Hanseatic League from way back way back, so lotsa early Germanic influence here in architecture. Reminds me a lot of St. Petersburg, another northern port city with lotsa early Germanic influence. In many ways, this place feels like the closest Iíve come yet to revisiting Leningrad (the name of St. Pete when I lived a summer there in 1985).

The ìhotelî weíre staying at isnít the best, but itís one the Norwegian navy has a deal with. Nice enough, in a mid-level British sort of way, but I would have taken the Radisson down the street with its broadband in every room. I have to type this on my Mac in my room and then memory-stick it into the public PC in the lobby. But that beats trudging to the Internet cafÈ way down near the McDonaldís.

Hmmm, McDonaldís . . . .

When I arrive with my commander host Odd (pronounced Ode, as in ìOde to Joyî), we sit and drink coffee with Chet Richards and his wife. Chet Richards, you may remember, reviewed my book, and my review of his review started a bit of snarky emails between us, making me a bit apprehensive about meeting him, because we have to get along over the next three days (I talk tomorrow and Tuesday, he talks Tuesday and leads plenary on Wednesday with me and Col. Thomas X. Hammes, USMC, author of The Sling and the Stone, a good book on Fourth Generation Warfare I used in Vol. II.

After two hours of chit-chat, in which I discover Chet to be a really nice guy and I believe he finds the same in me (proving yet again the old bit about avoiding judgment on anyone based on virtual contact), I head up to the sixth floor and my room. Put my pants in the Corby (which I loved so much from my talk at Parliament in London in late 2003 that I had Vonne buy one for me for home), iron my shirt for tomorrow, shower up, and then start working the brief (many nits to fix in transfer from PC to Mac, but no showstoppers). Still, some real work to do because tomorrow I will give the max version of the brief (like the one I used for the June 04 CSPAN taping) and I havenít done that big version in about five months, so much to update.

I go out for dinner with the Richards to a local restaurant. I have a fab seafood salad (I figure, Iím in fish capital Bergen, why not?). We talk over the meal for a solid two hours, and itís very nice. Chetís a natural mentoring sort, like most retired military, so you learn a lot over a meal. He is very curious about Vol. II, and so I try out the material in bits and pieces, and as usual, this process makes me feel ever more excited about how good I think that piece will be. Markís right: I keep thinking that all this stuff is hugely obvious to everyone but then I have to understand that no one thinks the Core-Gap and everything else connected with PNM in the 24/7/365 way I do, plus a lot was left unsaid in PNM, so this material is definitely Vol. II (not a sequel but an extension) but also very new and unique.

Not sure I said this one before, but Vol. I should be thought of like a pennant turned backwards. In terms of content, the pointy end of the pennant begins at about 1973 and the fat end ends up at 2004. PNM wasnít really about the future at all, but about figuring out now and how we got here. Vol. II is the opposite of Vol. I: this time the pennant is turned right-ways, with the fat end starting in 2005 and the pointy end reaching until about 2025-2030. So the book is mostly geared toward the next five to ten years, with only a small portion reaching out to the 2025 timeframe. I attach a small graphic to explain it further.

(Oops! Forgot in original posting of this message! Here it is the next day:)

Richards seemed to really like that explanation of the content difference between I and II, as does everyone else I explain it too. Itís a good image for me, helping me understand the two booksí center of gravity. Vol. I really had to focus most on explaining the world since 9/11 and Vol. II really has to focus most on explaining the world over the next five or so years, because that, as Neil Nyren points out, is what people really want most in this sort of sequel, not some fantastic trip to 2025.

Anyway, a weird sort of truncated day, tacked onto yesterday, but enjoyable thanks to the Richards and Odd. I will work the brief as required tonight and then pill my way to sleep so I can perform for a solid six hours tomorrow.