Chavez's shell game on oil
Saturday, February 26, 2005 at 4:36PM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

"Oil Revenues Hide Chavez's Economic Ineptitude," op-ed by Vladimir Chelminski, Wall Street Journal, 25 February 2005, p. A19.


Chavez has had six years and it hasn't been good, according to a private business consultant in Caracas:



After six tumultuous years in power, the claim by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that he is leading Venezuelans toward greater prosperity cannot be sustained. Any serious analysis of our economy shows a dramatic deterioration in Venezuelan well-being. A series of feel-good government programs only help ameliorate the negatives that would otherwise accrue to Chavez with his disastrous handling of the economyÖ

A main characteristic of our repressed economy is the imposition of exchange and price controls two years ago. We've seen this move before. Venezuela had these controls from 1983 to 1989 and from 1994 to 1996. In both cases, corruption ballooned, and the economy sank. In the end, they had to be discarded amid scarcities and hyperinflation.


Another economically pernicious measure introduced by this government is property confiscation. Earlier this year, the country's most productive ranch, owned by the British company Vestay Group LTD since 1903, became the target of a potential confiscation with plans to partition it for "cooperatives." This may be popular with the poor but if the past is any guide, the newcomers will either starve or go back to where they came from. Meantime, the nation will have lost a major productive asset. Next we'll be wondering why there is not enough investment and job creation.


Mr. Chavez still has credibility among his disciples and his charisma may carry him for some time to come, despite rising crime, filthier cities, declining services, an expanding informal economy and more beggars in the street than ever before. His followers are so infatuated that they do not pay attention to the contradictions in his speech or his numerous promises never fulfilled. But when the price of oil comes down, the . . . bloom is sure to fall off the rose.

Article originally appeared on Thomas P.M. Barnett (https://thomaspmbarnett.com/).
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