How can we get you back?

ARTICLE: European Countries May Take Detainees, By Peter Finn, Washington Post, December 23, 2008; Page A01

Wow.

You know that bit I've often used about "50% off the top" from the world in the price for helping our new prez?

Taking Gitmo detainees is a huge and welcome example of how much the world wants us back.

Trade barriers toughen - for now

ARTICLE: Trade Barriers Toughen With Global Slump, By Anthony Faiola and Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, December 22, 2008; Page A01

An inevitable dynamic that so far remains within the existing global rule set.

Much depends on the April summit and the leadership Obama provides--or doesn't.

The decline of the fisheries--much more immediate than global warming

WEEK IN REVIEW: "On the Farm: A Seafood Snob Ponders the Future of Fish," by Mark Bittman, New York Times, 16 November 2008.

Cool but disturbing chart on jump page shows "underexploited" fish at 80+-percent of world's fishers in 1950 and at 0% now. "Fully exploited" was the rest in 1950 and it's about 30% now (limit of sustainability). "Overexploited" starts as sliver in 1950 and grows to 39% now. "Crashed" starts more in 1960s and is just under one-third today.

So if 1950 was 80+ percent underexploited and rest fully exploited, today it's one-third crashed, move than one-third overexploited and just under one-third maxed out.

As for farming? It is very resource intensive and hard on the environment.

Little wonder that when we played "Survivor" in the NewRuleSets.Project work with Cantor Fitzgerald back in 2001, this was #2 most important issue after clean water.

Global warming came in dead last, by contrast.

SNAFU in Somalia

ARTICLE: Somalis' Choice: Join Islamists or Flee, By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, December 22, 2008; Page A01

CJTF-HOA/SOCCENT's surgical kinetics of Jan. 07 did not do the trick. The vacuum remains and radical Islamists continue to be most organized and disciplined and SysAdmin-y to take advantage.

Hard to see how this situation corrects itself.

Life after the boom

OP-ED: The Kids Are Alright. But Their Parents ..., By Neil Howe, Washington Post, December 7, 2008; Page B01

Howe is always interesting. Used his latest (Greying of Great Powers) in Great Powers.

This is the counter-intuitive take on the next generation allegedly being so stupid, pinning that tag on my own Generation Jones (ouch!). It's a statistical argument based on test scores and degrees and what not.

The serious analysis that fits me to a T:

So what explains the smartness deficit (and the related income gap) that has tracked these early Xers throughout their lives? Some say it's demographic pressure. Early Xers were born into large families at the tail end of the baby boom, with a relatively large share of higher-order siblings (just as first-wave boomers have a relatively large share of first-borns). As they grew up, they got crowded out in the competition for parental attention, good teachers and good colleges. Later on, by the 1980s, they arrived too late to enter the most lucrative professions and the cushiest corporations, by now glutted with boomer yuppies. Their only alternative was to pioneer the pragmatic, free-agent, low-credential lifestyle for which Generation X has since become famous.

It's hard to explain to people what it was like to trail the boom: every seat seemed already taken, so my generation either lacked ambition in the face of all that stiff demographic competition or played it safe. In short, going to college in the early 1980s meant you were really nervous about getting a job. Haven't had that notion in American society again until . . . now.

So we were the last generation before the Long Boom, making us a weird blip between the good-life Boomers and what came after. We were X before it had a name.

(Thanks: Michael Griffin)

Re: Tim Roemer

Would the Big Mouth who told us they could pass a copy of GP to Tim Roemer please email or comment. Thanks!

A sad, sick show in Chi-town [with addendum]

Obviously, I would have liked to see one of those FGs go through for the Packer victory (alas, this is our season). But it was an exciting hard-fought OT game (Rodgers was fab, in my opinion) that was very cool to witness--a stellar addition to the storied rivalry.

Despite the outcome, Kev and I enjoyed ourselves thoroughly at Soldier Field (it is a way cool stadium), save for a rather unending stream of boorish and threatening behavior from drunken Bear fans that I found really disturbing.

On the way walking to the game there was a lot of over-the-top trash talk, to include adult males screaming "faggots" at me and my 13-year-old son, with their dates (wives?) giggling drunkenly in approval.

That you try to brush off, as sick as it is, because you want the night to go well for your kid. So you rationalize it away with quietly shared quips.

Once into the club suite, the putdowns mostly involved the usual profanities. Not everyone did it, but the frequency was weird, like you wandered into a bad movie (and to his credit, one older Bear fan complained to security). I know people get jacked for this game, but it was an overwhelmingly adult crowd, so you expect better, especially when they stream obscenities at your kid for his sheer audacity of daring to walk in front of them wearing logowear (Who curses out a kid in that situation? I mean, isn't that just plain sick? Aren't you--instead--supposed to go out of your way to make a child feel welcome?).

But it was the way out to the car (about 30 minutes of walking en masse) that really shocked me (figuring it wouldn't be too bad since the Bears won): snowballs to the head (always from behind, to the point that I just starting walking with my arm around Kev and my shoulder blocking his head), people actually spitting at us (making you wonder what happens when the Bears lose), and clusters of exceedingly drunk Clockwork-Orange twentysomething males looming (for us personally twice, consisting of two different groups: trailing us for a bit, bragging out loud how they were going to beat us up and such ["Let's fuck these two up!" and such], and only backing off after I migrated Kev and myself toward cops).

Throughout it all. Kev was cool and behaved well, and I tried to keep him occupied in conversation (videogames, natch). I was very proud of him.

What depressed me most about the situation (and about which I apologized repeatedly to Kev--born and largely raised in the East in military-dominated communities), was realizing this was the fabled Midwest I brought my family back to live among: on full, bullying, drunken, homophobic display (hardly unique to my native region, I realize). I kept waiting for the adult voices to emerge that I typically hear in Green Bay when such moments begin (awfully rarely) at Lambeau, but all I found was gleeful hard stares from older fans (again, I remember the one older gentleman in the suite section for his consideration), and that ashamed me most of all as a native Midwesterner (because that was the kind of behavior that, in my little town growing up in the late 60s/early 70s, would get you a firm talking to or a slap upside the head from any number of adult males if they caught you-whether you were their kid or not).

I know Chicago is cool and ascendant with Obama and all, but I swear to God, I will go out of my way for the rest of my life to avoid spending another dime or minute in this town (believe me, I edited this sentence down repeatedly to delete the various expletives).

Beyond all that, we crashed pleasantly in a hotel just over the Indy border. We were not traumatized and we won't spend any time remembering the night, other to note, as Kev told me right after we lost, that he really loved spending the time with me (as I did with him).

I just feel like publicly calling Chicago out for the unbelievably boorish behavior of its citizens--to wit, I hope the town doesn't come close to getting the Olympics.

But I do wonder what would have been different if I had had my younger son with me or--say--I was carrying my Chinese daughter in my arms. . .. Either of them would have been flabbergasted by the hostility and probably quite scared by the experience.

Thankfully, it was Kev, so we write it down as a father-son bonding experience.

But to me it was a sick display--truly shameful.

Addendum: Here's the larger point: the NFL realizes and rightfully fears an aging fan base as kids are lost to soccer, X Games, video games, etc. My birth family grew up on football; my kids barely understand it, none play it as a team sport (I caught the TD to win my senior Homecoming game) and I predict none of them will care for it in adulthood (our games are solely a father-child experience, like my old man and Brewers double-headers in the 1970s). That's why the league this year instituted a very tough policing rule set in the stands: to create a family atmosphere.

That's my longer-term fear for the game.

More realistic on China's model

OP-ED: "The Lessons From 30 Years of Chinese Reform," by Hugo Restall, Wall Street Journal, 16 December 2008.

Basic gist: China really lowered its state-sector share of GDP dramatically under Deng and his immediate successors, going from 100% to about 11% during the wide-open 1990s. Since then the state-sector share creeps back up to about 20%, putting it on par with the U.S., whose own share is inching back up to 25%. China's is likely to grow some too in the next few years.

Some already call this "socialism" and a bunch of other hyperbolically stupid terms, claiming we're moving in the direction of China.

Point of this piece: China is heading as much toward Europe's big-firm capitalism (or more) than it is heading toward our more entrepreneurial flavor, so go easy on the fantastic projections of economic growth extending ad nauseum into the future.

It's who you know

ARTICLE: "Misreading the Kremlin Costs BP Control in Russia Venture," by Gregory L. White and Guy Chazan, Wall Street Journal, 16 December 2008.

A frustrating piece about the vagaries of making one's way through the various business factions that make up the Russian government.

Hardly some monolith.

The bottom-up strategic review/revolt that was

AMERICA'S BEST LEADERS ISSUE: "U.S. Junior Officers (Military): A Wisdom Forged by War," by Anna Mulrine, U.S. News & World Report, 8 December 2008.

The real story of America finally conquering its Vietnam story is told not merely at the Mattis-Petraeus level, as I once did in Esquire. Rather, it's best told at the level of junior officers.

That's where the biggest learning has occurred and that's where the change in tactics has been led.

When Ambrose wrote "Band of Brothers," his big uncertainty was the question, Could average American civilians be turned into a fighting force capable of taking on the most powerful military in the world?

If I were to describe a similar uncertainty in the GWOT, it wouldn't be about a casualty-averse America or an attention-deficit America so much as whether or not our Army and Marine Corps could truly become learning organizations and adapt themselves to new wars for which they were not trained nor supplied.

And the answer has been yes, primarily because our junior officers demanded it and then carried it out when the leadership emerged above to provide bureaucratic top-cover (my "Monks of War").

This is the true conquering of the Vietnam syndrome, and it took a new generation of young officers to pull it off.

This is the essential plot-line of the security chapter in Great Powers:

THE UNDENIABLE TRAJECTORY: The Miseducation of Colin Powell

THE AMERICAN SYSTEM PERTURBED: The Lost Year in Iraq

THE NEW RULES: From "The Monks of War," A New COIN of the Realm
THE NEW NORMAL: The Long (Post)War

THE GLOBAL ACCELERANT: The Privatization of American Foreign Policy

THE INESCAPABLE REALIGNMENT: The Reblending of Diplomacy, Defense and Development

THE BETTER NORMAL: The Command-After-Next

You start with a Colin Powell and his doctrine of avoiding nation-building at all cost and you end with the creation of Africa Command, an entire combatant command devoted to the same.

That is an amazing trajectory.

Chavez: asking for a real intervention

ARTICLE: "Chavez Lets Colombian Rebels Wield Power Inside Venezuela," by Jose de Cordoba, Wall Street Journal, 25 November 2008.

Chavez, in his continuing effort to meddle in Colombia, seems to be importing its problems--either advertently or inadvertently.

Either way, he's asking for trouble.

FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia) may be losing big-time in Colombia, with the upside being that it's retreating across the border into Venezuela, where apparently Chavez is giving the FARC enough free rein to set up its own political control over villages and start using Venezuelan land for growing cocaine (exports are up 5-fold from 2002 through 2007).

Smaller version of same is happening with Colombia's National Liberation Army (ELN).

So whether you want to call it mini-states being set up within Venezuela or these groups enjoying safe haven, either way, you're asking for a cross-border war with the U.S. clearly backing Colombia.

But the real hypocrisy here is the ultra-nationalist Chavez subletting chunks of his territory to druggie bandits whom he lets terrorize his own people.

Tom Friedman's nightmare scenario

ARTICLE: "Economic Slump May Limit Moves On Clean Energy: Nations Focus On Crisis; Shrinking Industry and Cheaper Oil Reduce Incentive to Act," by Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, 25 November 2008.

Global environmentalism is reeling from the financial crisis, because it creates a do-whatever-it-takes-to-get-things-rolling mentality.

To me, these dynamics make clear just how dependent the New Core is on globalization's continued advance.

If the Old Core West fails, it can still return to past patterns of trade, investment, and growth--not spectacular but don't underestimate how deep and long-standing those bonds are (check out cumulative FDI flows between the Big Three of the U.S., EU and Japan), meaning we'd still be rich in relative terms.

But you end globalization for China and India and what you have are enclaves of development surrounded by a vast sea of impoverished rural masses--inside their country.

So yeah, when times get tough, the New Core will do whatever it takes to survive.

We should expect no less.

But that short-term requirement doesn't make their long-term environmental problems disappear magically.

So nightmare, yes, but not a long one. In the meantime, the slowdown in production means less pollution, so there's always a silver lining.

Newspapers booming at the bottom

Neotrad Librarian sends in this post:

ARTICLE: Developing a thirst for news, By Harry Sanna, The National, December 06. 2008

The boom in newspapers in India repeats a boom in the US and Britain as they enabled mass literacy. Now it is India's turn, with the Times of India doubling the NYT in circulation. Meanwhile, my local newspaper just cut staff ... again.

The nationalists love to rewrite history, and there's so much to rewrite in Russia

ARTICLE: "Nationalism of Putin's Era Veils Sins of Stalin's," by Clifford J. Levy, New York Times, 27 November 2008.

Reprehensible in terms of truth-telling, but you can imagine the impetus. One thing for Germany to disavow a crazy 12-year Nazi run, but how to deal with a USSR that went on for seven decades? Especially when the guy associated with much of the best stuff (e.g., Great Patriotic War) is also clearly the mastermind of most of the absolutely worst (only Mao tops him in murder)?

I mean, it's gotta be weird to be Russian nowadays, like you're some historical orphan.

Taiwan invades the Mainland yet again: Calling all doctors!

MARKETPLACE: "Taiwan Firms Head for China To Make Money on Hospitals," by Ting-I Tsai, Wall Street Journal, 28 November 2008.

For years, the article begins, foreign healthcare firms tried to sell Western packages, but now Taiwan seeks to break that code by selling "low-cost quality health care to China's masses"--a serious bid for the bottom of the pyramid.

Taiwan's advantage: it's been running factories in China for decades, so it knows the landscape.

The low-end market is seen to range at about $150 billion a year.

The tighter speaking market

THE ARTS: "Speech! Speech! But Could You Please Cut the Price?" by Motoko Rich, New York Times, 27 November 2008.

Bad news: lower prices.

Okay news: lower primarily for celebrities who trade mostly on their celebrity.

Better news: demand for serious speakers remains.

What have we found? Frequency down some (not too bad yet), but the big difference is the far shorter fuse on gigs. Used to be, the big talks were sked months in advance, but now we're talking weeks. People have to have their money in hand and a clear sense of their budgets, apparently, and then they decide at the--relatively--last minute whether or not they're going through with the event.

Upshot?

Some sense of certainty for 2009. Obviously, I hope Great Powers is a game-improver.

AQ needs to pick the biggest fight possible

WORLD NEWS: "U.S. Commander Says Pakistan Is New Focus of al Qaeda's Efforts," by Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, 26 November 2008.

Prescient piece of analysis from Commandant of the Marine Corps, General James Conway, who says Iraq is now rear-guard for al Qaeda, and that Pakistan is the new central front.

Conway's analysis reflects the Joint Chiefs' growing pessimism on Afghanistan, where you have to remember, we've been at it for seven long years.

The thing is, the more we stabilize Afghanistan, the more likely we are to destabilize Pakistan, yes? I mean, SOCOM (special operations command) has been driven to the point of launching its own strikes into Pakistan because we've come to the conclusion that the Pakistani government simply refuses or is incapable of taking on the Taliban and others in the FATA (federally administered tribal areas). I'm betting on "incapable," since Islamabad has basically acquiesced on the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) strikes on al Qaeda targets there.

Almost too luxurious

Club suite, back row (so we can stand), Pack 25, 10 feet to indoor heated bar and grill and head), no wind exposure--priceless.

Bear fans bitchy though.

Not looking forward to long walk to car if Pack wins.

Best part: Leinenkugel, Honeyweise AND Boddington!

This place is almost too decadent!

Don't panic

ARTICLE: Breach of Trust: Bernard Madoff's massive fraud will cripple American capitalism,
By Anne Applebaum, Slate, Dec. 15, 2008

The almost hysterical extrapolating of current data points into dark futures re: capitalism reaches near apogee in this piece: Madoff dooms American capitalism.

These are simply the realities of frontier integration in a period of expansive globalization. Such a historically rapid spread of the global economy is naturally going to hit rough spots, replete with swindlers, but to then draw such conclusions from the latest bubble burst is extremely unstrategic in terms of analysis--almost childish.

People are losing all perspective, marking this moment as a true panic. But serious System Perturbations do that, thus the temptation of reaching for "strong leaders" in "uncertain times."

Here is where we hope Barack Obama is so much smarter than the pundits.

I'm not saying it's a high bar. I just want to clear it by a big-ass margin--please!

More seriously: you see the low quality of the strategic implications analysis currently being offered, and you realize how smart people can trigger something like the Great Depression through lengthy and determined acts of great myopia.

(Thanks: Pat O'Connor)

Tough love for the Pentagon

OP-ED: How to Pay for a 21st-Century Military, New York Times, December 20, 2008

You want some tough love on the Pentagon budget to pay for the interventions (overwhelmingly SysAdmin in nature) we're still waging and are likely to wage in the future, well . . . this is what the hit list looks like.

Simply brutal, but well chosen.

The much fabled train-wreck seems to have finally arrived.

(Thanks: pilgrimstevec)