Tom Friedman's nightmare scenario

ARTICLE: "Economic Slump May Limit Moves On Clean Energy: Nations Focus On Crisis; Shrinking Industry and Cheaper Oil Reduce Incentive to Act," by Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, 25 November 2008.

Global environmentalism is reeling from the financial crisis, because it creates a do-whatever-it-takes-to-get-things-rolling mentality.

To me, these dynamics make clear just how dependent the New Core is on globalization's continued advance.

If the Old Core West fails, it can still return to past patterns of trade, investment, and growth--not spectacular but don't underestimate how deep and long-standing those bonds are (check out cumulative FDI flows between the Big Three of the U.S., EU and Japan), meaning we'd still be rich in relative terms.

But you end globalization for China and India and what you have are enclaves of development surrounded by a vast sea of impoverished rural masses--inside their country.

So yeah, when times get tough, the New Core will do whatever it takes to survive.

We should expect no less.

But that short-term requirement doesn't make their long-term environmental problems disappear magically.

So nightmare, yes, but not a long one. In the meantime, the slowdown in production means less pollution, so there's always a silver lining.