Screw pink; green is the color of gay liberation

CAMPAIGN '08: "A Gay Mafia: They are called the Cabinet. Meet the seven wealthy, gay political donors who are quietly pouring money into races all over the country--and redefining liberal politics in the process," by John Cloud, Time, Oct. 31, 2008.

I get this question a lot: Where does human rights fit in with your vision?

My answer is always the same: The American model says that when a minority gets some real money and starts to use it politically to advance its agenda, political rights follow.

Gays are no different.

Green is the only color that matters politically in this country, and I think that's a very good thing.

Yes, when you're talking authoritarian or totalitarian states, then outside pressure in the vein of the Helsinki Accords or NGOs is good and worthy, but the real long-term solution is just enough economic connectivity to put money in hands and then put those hands to use in the political realm.

People really get most demanding of political freedom once they've amassed just enough economic freedom to acquire something worth protecting--as in, their way of life.

Somalia--same as it ever was

ARTICLE: "Somalia's Pirates Flourish in a Lawless Nation," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 31 October 2008.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "The Horn of Africa: The tragedy of the decade? Millions of people in dire need of help," The Economist, 1 November 2008.

Piracy (theft, kidnapping and general banditry) emerges as the one industry booming in pretend state Somalia, which the U.S. clearly did not fix in either of its recent interventions ("Black Hawk Down" in early-mid 1990s and the "recent kinetics in southern Somalia").

Piracy is expected to yield profits in the range of $50m this year--all tax free of course. This year so far abut 75 ships taken down. As start-up industries go, this one is fab for the locals: all you need is a skiff and three lightly armed guys and you've got a business plan. Local women now brag openly about dating pirates.

So who shows up to work this new industry? Core, both old (NATO, US) and new (India, Russia).

Meanwhile, of course, Somalia and neighboring Ethiopia see a resurgence of the famine conditions that caught everyone's attention back in the mid-1980s.

I'm thinking another Live Aid with Johnny Depp MC'ing in full Jack Sparrow regalia.

Global warming can't be helping with this continuing drought that now puts about 20m at dire risk in a region spread across Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. Already aid workers are seeing kids start to die off in numbers from malnutrition-related illnesses and infections.

See how well the Powell Doctrine worked!

Recession touches China

ARTICLE: Hu Sees China Losing Its Competitive Edge, By Maureen Fan, Washington Post, December 1, 2008; Page A12

You see the pattern: only the disconnected see any "win" in a global recession.

The official tour dates to date

Doesn't include the media stuff, which are the key events. These are the live events, according to Penguin's official site.

Thomas P.M. Barnett

Date Wednesday, Feb 04 2009

Location New York, NY 10065

Event Name CARNEGIE COUNCIL

Discussion, Signing & Reception

Date Monday, Feb 09 2009
Location Washington, DC 20004
Event Name US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
Discussion & Signing

Date Tuesday, Feb 10 2009
Location Washington, DC 20008
Event Name POLITICS & PROSE
Discussion & Signing

Date Wednesday, Feb 11 2009
Location Washington, DC 20319-5066
Event Name NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY
Discussion & Signing

Date Thursday, Feb 12 2009
Location Boston, MA 02116
Event Name BOSTON PUBLIC LIBRARY

I can't remember the last time I visited the Boston Public Library, but I remember it as quite beautiful.

But the library I lived in across the late 1980s was Widener . . . a beast with a history all it's own.

Watched Bond film tonight: "You Only Live Twice" (fifth one, 1967). Watch it and see the entire first "Austin Powers" film for real.

This attack will work against them

ARTICLE: Pakistani Militants At Center Of Probe, By Craig Whitlock and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, November 29, 2008; Page A01

Obviously, Pakistan militants would love to forestall any concentrated West+East+Pakistani effort to crack down on the that state's ungoverned areas by triggering an Indian-Pakistani conflict.

But, in grand strategic terms, they are far too late in attempting this.

So what they really end up buying is more Old-New Core cooperation--not less.

Again, the timing is hardly coincidental but highly useful from our perspective--if handled with care.

Tom in NYC for Great Powers

EVENT: Thomas P.M. Barnett on tour for book 'Great Powers: America and the World After Bush'

Wednesday, Feb 4 (2009) 5:30p

Carnegie Council
170 E. 64th St.
New York, NY 10065

Put it on your calendar.

Yes, there is a school for complete assholes!

ARTICLE: "At Pundit School, Learning to Smile and Interrupt," by Ashley Parker, New York Times, 26 October 2008.

An actual school for would-be on-screen pundits and talking heads, here is where you learn to "carve [your ideology] into bite-size nuggets--preferably ones that end with a zinger" and "to avoid questions" you don't "like."

The article blames Tucker Carlson for blazing the trail, and follows the schooling of one Peter Freire, who at 26 has been a managing editor of "The American Spectator" for all of 9 months.

Well, hell, man! That's all the credentials you need to blow smoke out your ass on TV!

It's nice to know that all the IQ-reducing fare on news networks has its own pipeline. As for the young pundits who flock to this school, better to become famous before you achieve anything of value.

And keep those zingers coming!

MS tries to cut out the Gap's BS on IP theft

ARTICLE: "Microsoft Battles Low-Cost Rival for Africa," by Steve Stecklow, Wall Street Journal, 28 October 2008.

Bold start:

Microsoft Corp. see sub-Saharan Africa, among the poorest places on earth, as one of the last great computing frontiers. It wants to make its Windows software a fixture there.

The battle, of course, is against Linux, which costs virtually nothing.

In most countries in Africa, less than one percent use the Internet, or 22.6m out of 742m.

MS offers a special $3 Windows deal if your government can commit to buying at least 10,000 computers for students (which they keep). So far only Libya, Egypt, Russia and Mexico have managed this trick.

So, in Africa, MS is offering a package deal to governments, trying to get them to switch off Linux. The deal typically includes lotsa donated computers for schools.

Underlying all this effort is MS's desire to reduce the pirating of its software in these places. You may have heard this one because I've heard so many people quote it to me that it almost seems like an urban legend: if MS can reduce its piracy by 15%, it would double its revenue.

Point: MS has done most of what it can with the top of the pyramid; now it's adjusting itself to the bottom.

The financial storm washes up in the PG

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Dubai: Not-so-hot property; Is Dubai being hit by the turmoil?" The Economist, 11 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Financial Storm Hits Gulf: Speculative Currency Trades Plunge Kuwait Into Bank Bailout," by Margaret Coker and Chip Cummins, Wall Street Journal, 27 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Slowdown in Persian Gulf Reverberates in Middle East: Region Tethered To Oil Economies," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 29 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Emirates See Fiscal Crisis As Chance to Save Culture," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 12 November 2008.

While that cool WSJ map of a while back did a neat outline of the Gap in terms of where the financial contagion spread, the slowdown in demand and the retrenchment of capital naturally changes everything for everyone eventually.

And so the storm comes to the Gulf's key connectors in the UAE, including even smallish-oil-power Dubai, where the dynamic is more familiar to us: 80% rise in property value since early last year (how sustainable is that?)

Dubai has pulled that off for two reasons: access to cheap capital in the West and a continuing influx of foreign workers. But as the former retrenches, there are plenty in the UAE who seek utility in curtailing the latter--as in, they want to retain their cultural identity and maybe a breather like this can be a very good thing.

A lesson there for us all: globalization has been moving so fast over the past two decades, that a pause or even just a slowdown in its advance is not a bad thing-if the right adjustments are made and the right lessons learned.

The problem is, a slowdown in the Gulf equates to a crash for all the local non-oil dependents like Egypt and Jordan.