A scenario for Libya

Map from The Guardian.

Based on what I'm reading, here's how I might gin up the desired exit glidepath:

• By most accounts, Qaddafi is down to Tripoli and a couple other chunks of the country.
• We fear he'll go out Gotterdammerung-style with chem weapons.  He also has some air capacity to bring significant pain to rebel-held territories (how very Saddam-like, yes?).
• So you establish the no-fly-zone (NATO, preferably, but mostly USN in practical terms, although one assumes flying across the Med is no big deal logistically speaking) and lock up the Tripoli and Sidra with naval blockades, committing no troops for now.  You do let the people flow (outbound) proceed, especially whenever it's countries like Turkey trying to get workers out.
• You also lock down Qaddafi's financial network (I assume this has proceeded apace already) and essentially starve him out, taking the hit on higher oil prices in the meantime. 
• They guy survives primarily on a praetorian guard dynamic, so . . . You do your best to signal inward to his forces that there is only one ending and it would be nice if somebody took care of the meddlesome colonel.  Or maybe the rebels simply finish the job with acceptable civilian losses.
• If Qaddafi does go to chem, well then, there's your more vigorous intervention made to order, the justification shifting to humanitarian protection and inevitable roundup of the ICC-indicted war criminals.

To me, this is an ideal sort of SysAdmin intervention opportunity: keep it small and proportional and elevate in response to events. Big point:  not pre-emptive but responsive.  You want to ride with globalization's natural tide as much as possible, letting the "new map" tell you where to apply pressure next, thus making local demand your primary guide.

Naturally, the fearful and paranoid will see the usual Western plot to grab oilfields, but denying the bottom-up nature on this one reduces them to sheer lying.

Me? I see a beautiful, globalization-driven process at work here. Let it roll!  Because I like our longer-term odds versus those of the Iranians, al-Qaeda and the Wahhabist Saudis.  Then again, victory was never in doubt--just timing and cost.

CoreGap Review and Updates from the Wiki

In the last week we published the following analysis on our website:

1. Mubarak Steps Down - For Real
2. New US National Military Strategy Redirects from Middle East to East Asia
3. Droughts in Amazon and China
4. European Exchange Giant to Buy New York Stock Exchange

Our Egypt Simulation

We've released a brief video on the Egypt simulation in the wiki. Watch here.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Simulation - The Death of King Jong-Il

We have just launched our first open community simulation, where our analysts and subscribers explore a shock in the form of the sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Join our subscribers to engage in this live simulation, explore potential scenarios, aftershocks the various impacts of this event on countries' interests. You can then play the Prime Minister and plan potential strategies for the United States, China, South Korea and many more.

Current ruler Kim Jong-Il turns 70 this year and is allegedly battling pancreatic cancer (very low five-year survival rate) and diabetes, as well as the obvious lingering effects of a stroke that occurred in 2008.

Starting in mid-2009 and culminating in a special party event in the fall of 2010, Kim positioned his under-30 third son, Kim Jong-Eun as his clear successor, although it is widely believed that Kim Jong-Il's brother-in-law Chang Sung-Taek will play the role of regent for some indeterminate time.

North Korea's recent military aggressiveness (e.g., ship sinking, artillery barrage of disputed island) suggests a determined effort to speedily credentialize Kim Jong-Eun among the military leadership that now controls much of the government, economy, and - most importantly - mineral exports to, and humanitarian aid from, patron China. Kim Jong-Il was publicly groomed as "founding father" Kim Il-Sung's successor for roughly a decade-and-a-half, whereas Kim Jong-Eun will likely have had only a restricted public persona for 3-4 years at the time of his father's death.

When Kim Il-Sung died in 1994, Kim Jong-Il nonetheless was unable to fully claim leadership status until three years had passed.

This shock is still in progress, join today to participate, watch or ask questions.

Wikistrat's Releases "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" #11.05

 Greetings from the Wikistrat Team,

Today we have released this week's CoreGap Bulletin to Wikistrat's subscribers

This week our bulletin covers, among many:

1. Terra Incognita - The Devils We'll Know
2. Frantic Firewalling among Potential Mideast Contagion Victims
3. Moscow Airport Suicide Bombing Signals Caucasus Separatists' Staying Power
4. Food - How Rising Asia Destabilizes the entire Gap
5. Asian Banking Goes Global

Join our subscribers and take advantage of the world's first geopolitical wiki model, as well as receive the full CoreGap weekly bulletin.  Sign up here

For a taste of what you'll be getting, here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link to the abridged PDF version.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT

Podcast archive for Vantage Point radio appearance 31 Jan 11

Find the one-hour segment here.

First segment audio a bit bad.  Did it over Skype and needed to listen on my headphones so no feedback, so later chunks better.

Egypt Crisis Simulation (addendum)

Wikistrat cuts through the noise and helps our subscribers understand how the current events in Egypt could change the region for years to come. We've released a new video discussing the on-going simulation and what consquences are emerging for the region.

Wikistrat is an integrated model of globalization, emerging market trends and geopolitical risk.

For access to the Wikistrat global Model, subscribe here now, and join our community of strategic thinkers.

Writer on another blog was interested in our use of the term "credentializing" WRT the Egyptian military's role in any successful transition to democracy.

Here's how I explained on that blog what we meant by that term:

Credentializing here means that the military’s performance in the hopefully smooth transition marks them as a contributing force for democracy rather than its hindrance, something we would term “delegitimizing.”

The military, as we note, is large and powerful and popular in Egypt. That’s an asset for long-term stability worth protecting, because young democracies tend to be the most warlike–more than mature democracies and more than authoritarian states. If the military serves the right function here (Mubarak gone, but not willy-nilly leaving a vacuum, and the elections happen freely and with little violence), then it becomes seen as the righteous guardian of the republic and not its menace. That is credentializing, because it says the army isn’t just a plaything of the government or protector of any one ruler, but an institution that serves the long-term interests of the nation. Immature democracies are plenty scary in history, and if they’re coupled with a radicalized military, you’ve got trouble. So if the military’s fine standing can be preserved in this transition, they’re credentialized for what comes next, which will be tricky no matter who emerges.

WIKISTRAT's "Middle East Monitor", January 2011

Greetings from the Wikistrat team

We're excited to announce the launch of our latest publication, "Middle East Monitor - January 2011". 

We hope you will enjoy the Mid-East Monitor. You are also invited to our Virtual Strategic War-Room on our wiki - check out the public version here. Sign up today to access our integrated strategic model of globalization.

Subscribe and Join the Wikistrat Universe, featuring global strategic model of globalization's advance, trends, shifts and trajectories. Your journey starts Here.

See you on the wiki!

Egypt: coming together nicely enough

Mubarak tells PM to negotiate with opposition and military is clear about not taking on protesters directly.

So, from the Wikistrat scenarios, what we imagined and how people voted predicted the layout pretty nicely:

1. While the "explosive rip" came and went, strong expectation all along for the "military's tightening grip" (36%)
2. Mubarak seems to be planning his step down (38%), with clear military encouragement (34%)
3. US leads boldly from behind  (44%), but the bandwagoning has begun (36%)
4. Frantic firewalling (39%) ensues regionally (Jordan's king sacks cabinet)
5. Global opinion is all over the table, with a lot of fear predominating (40% = "Who lost Egypt?"), but shifting to excitement (32% on "we are all Egyptians now!")
6. Tipping point appears to be the "pacted transition" (45%) now tried internally, and, if that fails, it will go international (frankly, I would advise the opposition toward the latter out of safety)
7. And this is looking more like a Turkey (51%) than Iran (16%) or Pakistan (25%), with maybe a China (9%) down the post-recovery road?

From the perspective of the system, this could not be proceeding better (minimal violence on the street--of course you want just enough, just slow enough for the overall situation not to go crazy, and military shepherding the process responsibly.  Egypt does itself proud--so far.

Point of exercise at Wikistrat:  when you disaggregate the process and think logically at each point, it's not that hard to imagine how it unfolds with some real accuracy.  Also, once presented with the panoply of choices, logically arranged over the unfolding, the wisdom of the crowd works pretty well.

The votes yet again:

Unfolding Pathways

• Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%) (36%)
• Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%) (24%)
• Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%) (21%)
• Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%) (19%)

Regime Response

• Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)
• (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%)  (31%) (32%) (34%) 
• Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)
• Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%) (8%)

US Response

• "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%) (44%)
• "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%)  (20%) (21%) (20%) (36%)
• "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%)  (23%) (22%) (21%) (17%)
• Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%) (3%)

Regional Responses

• Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%) (39%)
• Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%) (25%)
• Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%)  (25%) (23%)  (26%) (21%) (22%)
• Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%)  (15%) (14%)

Global Responses

• "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%) (40%)
• "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%) (32%)
• "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%) (26%)
• "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%) 

Tipping Points

• Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%) (45%)
• That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%) (26%)
• "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)
• First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%) (9%)

Exit Glidepath

• Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%) (51%)
• Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%) (26%)
• Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%)  (12%) (13%) (14%) (15%)
• Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

Wikistrat's Egypt Scenarios Dynamic Grid--Voting over time (graphs

Percentage on vertical axis, hours along horizontal.

Unfolding Pathways

• Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%)
• Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%)
• Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%)
• Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%)

My upshot:  Fast and furious, with a military play eventually.

UPDATE: "Rip" scenario falling into third place, so less expectation of speed and more of Mubarak-dumped-by-military feeling.

Regime Response

• Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)
• (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%)  (31%) (32%) (34%) 
• Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)
• Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%)

My upshot:  Expectation that Mubarak must go, but that systemic response will follow to reestablish some control once he's thrown to wolves.  Amazing to me:  just days ago most US experts on Egypt said the security system would hold (as in, hunt them down).

UPDATE:  Falling "crack down" and rising "military man" solution, but Mubarak going holds steady.

US Response

• "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%)
• "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%)  (23%) (22%) (21%)
• "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%)  (20%) (21%) (20%)
• Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%)

My upshot:  Standing by Mubarak too incredible, so US hanging back and then embracing new (probably interim) authority figure is expected.

UPDATE: Rising verdict on US inaction.

Regional Responses

• Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%)
• Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%)
• Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%)  (25%) (23%)  (26%) (21%)
• Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%)  (15%)

My upshot:  Expectations that now any further vulnerable regimes truly harden out of fear.

UPDATE:  Very steady.  More a downstream bit, so makes sense.

Global Responses

• "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%)
• "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%)
• "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%)
• "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)

My upshot: Almost nobody sees this dragging out long enough for sanctions, just the opposite.

UPDATE:  Similar to regional.  Although I remain amazed that the regret statement is persistently highest.  Suggests the system's nerves outweigh its hopes.

Tipping Points

• Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%)
• That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%)
• "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)
• First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%)

My upshot:  International arbitrage most likely outcome, but with military buy-in (military is large, powerful and popular, as the Scenario Dynamics Grid notes)

UPDATE:  Rising combo of negotiated deal + ElBaradei, with military-in-front scenario declining.

Exit Glidepath

• Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%)
• Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%)
• Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%)  (12%) (13%) (14%)
• Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)

My upshot: Mubarak's China model moment has passed (too little, too late), and there's more fear of a Pakistan or Iran path (in aggregate) than the more stable Turkish one.  If I'm Israeli, I guess I'm not particularly enamored with any of that.

UPDATE:  To me, the most interesting shifts, as Turkey rises (to me, hopeful sign), as does Pakistan (scarier), but Iran dropping (and that's scariest to me).

WPR's The New Rules: "War-Gaming Egypt's Future"

Over the weekend, Wikistrat -- a Tel Aviv-based technology start-up for which I serve as chief analyst -- gathered a group of Israeli and U.S. geostrategists, myself included, to take part in an online scenario-generating drill in response to the ongoing protests in Egypt. Our goal was to work up four feasible pathway trees along which events could develop -- two favorable to the Egyptian people, two favorable to the Egyptian regime -- and then present them online to interested parties for feedback and voting. The exercise was an attempt to harness the Web 2.0's wisdom of the crowd for strategic forecasting.

Here are the four scenarios we came up with:

Read the entire article at World Politics Review.

Scenario Dynamics Grid voting results at Wikistrat's Egyptian war room (updated 0900 EST Mon)

UPDATE NOTE:  FOR MY RECORDS/CURIOSITY, I'M TRACKING HOW THINGS SHIFT OR STAY STEADY AS THE VOTES POUR IN.  I SHIFT ORDERING AS ONE SCENARIO MOVES UP OR DOWN.  STRIKE-OUT PREVIOUS TOTALS KEPT TO GIVE YOU SENSE OF MOMENTUM (FIRST CUT THIS MORNING, SO WE'RE TALKING COURSE OF DAY)

The voting tally so far, which naturally changes as more votes come in.  You get access to the latest totals when you go and vote. Realize this vote will have a Middle East bias, meaning more locals than outsiders. Then again, who gets these things more right than the locals, yes?

Again, if the votes don't add up, it's because the page kept updating as I punched them in and I'm just going with these.

Unfolding Pathways

• Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%)
• Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%)
• Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%)
• Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%)

My upshot:  Fast and furious, with a military play eventually.

UPDATE: "Rip" scenario falling into third place, so less expectation of speed and more of Mubarak-dumped-by-military feeling.

Regime Response

• Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%)
• (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%)  (31%) (32%) (34%)
• Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) 
• Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%)

My upshot:  Expectation that Mubarak must go, but that systemic response will follow to reestablish some control once he's thrown to wolves.  Amazing to me:  just days ago most US experts on Egypt said the security system would hold (as in, hunt them down).

UPDATE:  Falling "crack down" and rising "military man" solution, but Mubarak going holds steady.

US Response

• "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%)
• "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%)  (23%) (22%) (21%)
• "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%)  (20%) (21%)
• Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%)

My upshot:  Standing by Mubarak too incredible, so US hanging back and then embracing new (probably interim) authority figure is expected.

UPDATE: Rising verdict on US inaction.

Regional Responses

• Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%)
• Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%)  (25%) (23%)  (26%)
• Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%)
• Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) 

My upshot:  Expectations that now any further vulnerable regimes truly harden out of fear.

UPDATE:  Very steady.  More a downstream bit, so makes sense.

Global Responses

• "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%)
• "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%)
• "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%)
• "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%)

My upshot: Almost nobody sees this dragging out long enough for sanctions, just the opposite.

UPDATE:  Similar to regional.  Although I remain amazed that the regret statement is persistently highest.  Suggests the system's nerves outweigh its hopes.

Tipping Points

• Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%)
• "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%)
• That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%)
• First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%)

My upshot:  International arbitrage most likely outcome, but with military buy-in (military is large, powerful and popular, as the Scenario Dynamics Grid notes)

UPDATE:  Rising combo of negotiated deal + ElBaradei, with military-in-front scenario declining.

Exit Glidepath

• Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%)
• Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%)
• Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%)  (12%) (13%) (14%)
• Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%

My upshot: Mubarak's China model moment has passed (too little, too late), and there's more fear of a Pakistan or Iran path (in aggregate) than the more stable Turkish one.  If I'm Israeli, I guess I'm not particularly enamored with any of that.

UPDATE:  To me, the most interesting shifts, as Turkey rises (to me, hopeful sign), as does Pakistan (scarier), but Iran dropping (and that's scariest to me).

Live interviews at Vantage Point (Oracle Broadcasting) and Backbone Radio - Jan 30, 1900 and 2100 EST

I will be interviewed on Egypt Crisis as well as our War-Room and Wikistrat in general this evening at Vantage Point and Backbone Radio

Live over the Internet here:

• Vantage Point (7pm EST)
• Backbone Radio (9pm EST)

From the Backbone site:

Backbone Radio: Egypt update, Jan 30, 2011

I’m pleased to let you know that during the 7 PM hour of this evening’s show, we’ll be joined by global strategy expert and best-selling author Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett to discuss events in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, as well as the possible impact of these events on other nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel.

You can read Dr. Barnett’s remarkable bio HERE and I encourage readers of these pages and listeners to Backbone Radio to visit www.wikistrat.com/war-room for ongoing strategic simulation by geostrategists headed by Dr. Barnett, looking at developments in Egypt. (Wikistrat subscribers get deeper access…)

More details of the “War Room” in THIS press release.

As always, please join me by listening to (and calling in to) this week’s Backbone Radio program from 5 PM to 8 PM on 710 AM KNUS in Denver and 1460 AM KZNT in Colorado Springs.

If you’re not in range of the radio waves, you should be able to listen to the show online by clicking HERE.

Wikistrat Strategic War Room on Egypt: Scenario Dynamics Grid online and available for voting

This front page, summarizing 4 implied scenario pathways (Egyptian people win . . . fast!, Egyptian people win . . . more slow, Regime holds on, Military steps in) in columns going L to R, is available to view, with voting encouraged across the four scenarios.  

But rather than emphasizing the sequencing of those four paths, we array them across a series of issues:

• How the protests unfold
• Regime response
• US response
• Regional response
• Global response
• Tipping point
• Exit glidepath

So you get a chance to vote for one of four in each of those four scenario points.

First ever Virtual Strategic War-Room Launched following Egyptian Chaos

29 JANUARY 2011 - PRESS RELEASE  – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Fol­low­ing the riots and deadly events shak­ing Egypt and cre­at­ing grave con­cerns among re­gional and global ac­tors, Wik­istrat is launch­ing the world’s first wiki based Vir­tual Strate­gic War-Room.

Wik­istrat, a new analy­sis and con­sult­ing firm, has an­nounced the launch of a pri­vate vir­tual war room ded­i­cated to the events in Egypt. In this unique and in­ter­ac­tive en­vi­ron­ment, world lead­ing an­a­lysts will ex­plore the strate­gic geopo­lit­i­cal ef­fects of cur­rent events in Egypt, po­ten­tial path­ways and im­pli­ca­tions to what this means for the in­ter­ests of global ac­tors.

Headed by for­mer Pen­ta­gon grand strate­gist Dr. Thomas PM Bar­nett, Wik­istrat’s Egypt Team will pro­vide sub­scribers with cut­ting edge analy­sis in real time, map­ping po­ten­tial sce­nario path­ways, com­mer­cial op­por­tu­ni­ties and risks, as well as im­pli­ca­tions for re­gional sta­bil­ity.

Start­ing Jan­u­ary 29th, the sim­u­la­tion ex­plore shocks and im­pli­ca­tions, af­ter-shocks, po­ten­tial path­ways, im­pli­ca­tions on actor’s in­ter­ests, trends and geopo­lit­i­cal shifts. Sub­scribers will see the model up­dated con­stantly through­out this week and be­yond, and will be able to in­ter­act with the team through di­rect ques­tions, group de­bates and vot­ing over po­ten­tial path­ways this sit­u­a­tion can take.

Note to Ed­i­tors:

• Wik­istrat ex­perts, headed by Dr. Thomas PM Bar­nett, are avail­able to speak to the press on cur­rent de­vel­op­ments in Egypt and their strate­gic im­pli­ca­tions for this crit­i­cal re­gion
• Jour­nal­ists and blog­gers are wel­come to ref­er­ence or quote from ma­te­r­ial pub­licly re­leased by Wik­istrat in re­turn for pro­vid­ing a re­turn link to http://​www.​wikistrat.​com/
• More in­for­ma­tion:
  • Web: www.​wikistrat.​com
  • Email: info@​wikistrat.​com
  • Phone: +972 7 3725 0920

About Wik­istrat: Wik­istrat is a new Aus­tralian-Is­raeli start-up that has de­vel­oped a first ever, global strate­gic model of the world, de­liv­ered on an in­ter­ac­tive and col­lab­o­ra­tive wiki plat­form. The ser­vice was re­cently opened to sub­scribers and is cre­at­ing a rev­o­lu­tion in the way geopo­lit­i­cal analy­sis is con­sumed and de­liv­ered.

About Dr. Bar­nett: Dr. Thomas Bar­nett is a world renowned strate­gic thinker, for­mer strate­gic an­a­lyst at the Pen­ta­gon and a New York Times Best­selling Au­thor. Dr. Bar­nett has been a se­nior ad­viser to mil­i­tary and civil­ian lead­ers in a range of of­fices, in­clud­ing the Of­fice of the Sec­re­tary of De­fense, the Joint Staff, Cen­tral Com­mand and Spe­cial Op­er­a­tions Com­mand. U.S. News & World Re­port re­ferred to Dr. Bar­nett as “One of the most im­por­tant strate­gic thinkers of our time.”

Wikistrat planning weekend scenario exercise on Egyptian's "Angry Friday" VERTICAL SHOCK with network of experts

Setting up our version of a war room on Egypt.  

We should have a basic available-to-anyone summary page up hopefully by Saturday afternoon, with drill-downs saved for subscribers.

Til then:

After Mubarak, will Egypt face a void? 

BY TIM LISTER, 29 JAN 2011

QUOTES:

Thomas P. Barnett of forecasting group Wikistrat put it more colorfully: "Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak" . . . 

In any event, says Barnett -- formerly a professor at the U.S. Navy War College -- events in Egypt and Tunisia show that the "Islamist narrative" to explain the woes of the Arab world is being challenged by a maturing and well-educated youth movement whose expectations of a better life have been dashed by economic stagnation and a stifling political atmosphere . . . 

Barnett, chief analyst at Wikistrat, says Mubarak's best -- and perhaps only -- option may now be to announce an "exit date" to take the sting out of the protests, organize an orderly transition to fresh elections and hand authority to a caretaker Cabinet that could focus on growing the economy . . .

Read full piece here.

The New Rules: The Battle for Islam's Soul (Jan 2011)

Beginning with the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the West has viewed the Middle East and North Africa primarily through the lens of radical fundamentalist political movements. That perspective has narrowed our strategic vision ever since, conflating Shiite with Sunni, evangelicals with fundamentalists, Persians with Arabs, Islamists with autocrats, and so on. But recent events in Tunisia and Algeria remind us that the vast bulk of history's revolutions are fueled by economics, not politics. In this, the struggle for Islam's soul is no different than that of any other civilization in this age of globalization's rapid expansion . . .

Read the whole column at World Politics Review.

Who Should Worry About the Tunisia Fallout, Really? (Jan 2011)

4. Egypt's modern "pharaoh" should worry.

Last time I was in Egypt, I heard the same lament from every young man I came across: "I can't get married because I can't get a job!" You want to brew a revolution? There's no faster way than keeping young men from getting their just desserts, if you know what I mean. Put them off long enough, and some will resort to a strap-on — you know, the kind that allegedly wins you 72 virgins in the afterlife. And president pharoah Hosni Mubarak's latest offer to his public is... 8-percent economic growth for the foreseeable future. Now that's downright China-like, if he can keep his promises — and fast . . . 

Read the full post at Esquire's The Politics Blog

Four scary words: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak (2008)

Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak's "emergency rule" is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal's efforts to open up Egypt's state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarak the Elder's repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world's most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development.

But with the global recession now reaching down deeply into emerging markets, serious cracks emerge in the Mubarak regime's facade. Unemployment is - unofficially - somewhere north of 30 percent. Worse, it's highly concentrated among youth, whose demographic bulge currently generates 800,000 new job seekers every year.

Ask young Egyptian men, as I did repeatedly on a trip, what their biggest worry is, and they'll tell you it's the inability to find a job that earns enough to enable marriage - a terrible sign in a society becoming more religiously conservative.

At 83, Hosni Mubarak is an unhealthy dictator who's achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran's reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-Elect Barack Obama's watch . .  .

Read more: Thomas P.M. Barnett's Globlogization - Scripps Howard News Service column - Four scary words: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak 

Egypt:  The Country to Watch, Esquire, October 2006

Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak.

Osama picked the time (9/11), and Bush picked the venue (Iraq), but this fight between radical Islam and globalization's integrating forces was preordained the day Deng Xiaoping set in motion China's economic rise almost three decades ago. You can't rapidly add billions of new capitalists to the global economy and pretend the Islamic Middle East will remain queerly disconnected forever, somehow fire-walled from that borglike assimilation.

And so, while resistance may be ultimately futile, it will be bloody as hell in the meantime, with Cairo--not Tehran--likely to become the next big flash point in this Long War . . . 

Read the entire piece here.

Wikistrat's Releases "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" #11.04

New CoreGap Bulletin Released

Greetings from the Wikistrat Team,

Today we have released this week's CoreGap Bulletin to Wikistrat's subscribers

This week our bulletin covers, among many:

1. Terra Incognita - Two strategic narratives duke it out in the Pentagon
2. Smooth summit, as Obama doesn’t spoil Hu’s legacy photo-op
3. Iran ends lavish energy and food subsidies in historic reform gamble
4. Duvalier’s return to Haiti complicates election stalemate
5. Turkey’s busy foreign policy signals regional leadership ambition

Join our subscribers and take advantage of the world's first geopolitical wiki model, as well as receive the full CoreGap weekly bulletin.  Sign up here

For a taste of what you'll be getting, here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link to the abridged PDF version.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT



Wiki goes Live, CoreGap Bulletin #11.03 Released

Exciting launch of our Wiki, coupled with a new CoreGap bulletin

Greetings from the Wikistrat Team,

Today we have launched the internet's very first Global Strategic Model on a private and interactive wiki.

Join our subscribers and take advantage of the launch offer: a 50% discount off the regular price.  Sign up now before our regular prices return over the weekend. 

For a taste of what you'll be getting, here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link to the abridged PDF version.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT



WIKISTRAT's "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" (#11.02)

Greetings from the Wikistrat team.

We've just emailed a copy of the latest CoreGap bulletin to our subscribers.

We launch the wiki in less than a week! Wikistrat is offering 50% off annual subscriptions before the launch date.

Here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link.

We hope you enjoy the bulletin.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT

WIKISTRAT's "Middle East Monitor" (#1)

Greetings from the Wikistrat team.

We're excited to announce that we're launching our latest publication, "Middle East Monitor." To receive future updates and free analysis, sign up to our free mailing list here.

We hope you enjoy the Mid-East Monitor.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT

WIKISTRAT's "CoreGap Weekly Bulletin" (#2)

Greetings from the Wikistrat team.

We're excited to announce that we've just emailed a copy of the latest CoreGap bulletin to our subscribers. It costs nothing for you to join the free analysis mailing list here.

Here is a video of Tom discussing content from the bulletin as well as a download link.

We hope you enjoy the bulletin.

See you on the wiki!

CEO Joel Zamel

CTO Daniel Green and

Chief Analyst Thomas P.M. Barnett of WIKISTRAT

Wikistrat's New Video

The Wikistrat team has put together a video to help explain the service.  I enjoy the evocation of "The Matrix"! Exciting stuff.

As before, you can also keep up to date on Wikistrat using the links below.