UPDATE NOTE: FOR MY RECORDS/CURIOSITY, I'M TRACKING HOW THINGS SHIFT OR STAY STEADY AS THE VOTES POUR IN. I SHIFT ORDERING AS ONE SCENARIO MOVES UP OR DOWN. STRIKE-OUT PREVIOUS TOTALS KEPT TO GIVE YOU SENSE OF MOMENTUM (FIRST CUT THIS MORNING, SO WE'RE TALKING COURSE OF DAY)
The voting tally so far, which naturally changes as more votes come in. You get access to the latest totals when you go and vote. Realize this vote will have a Middle East bias, meaning more locals than outsiders. Then again, who gets these things more right than the locals, yes?
Again, if the votes don't add up, it's because the page kept updating as I punched them in and I'm just going with these.
Unfolding Pathways
- Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%)
- Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%)
- Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%)
- Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%)
My upshot: Fast and furious, with a military play eventually.
UPDATE: "Rip" scenario falling into third place, so less expectation of speed and more of Mubarak-dumped-by-military feeling.
Regime Response
- Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%)
- (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)
- Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%)
- Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%)
My upshot: Expectation that Mubarak must go, but that systemic response will follow to reestablish some control once he's thrown to wolves. Amazing to me: just days ago most US experts on Egypt said the security system would hold (as in, hunt them down).
UPDATE: Falling "crack down" and rising "military man" solution, but Mubarak going holds steady.
US Response
- "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%)
- "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%)
- "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%)
- Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%)
My upshot: Standing by Mubarak too incredible, so US hanging back and then embracing new (probably interim) authority figure is expected.
UPDATE: Rising verdict on US inaction.
Regional Responses
- Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%)
- Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%)
- Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%)
- Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%)
My upshot: Expectations that now any further vulnerable regimes truly harden out of fear.
UPDATE: Very steady. More a downstream bit, so makes sense.
Global Responses
- "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%)
- "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%)
- "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%)
- "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%)
My upshot: Almost nobody sees this dragging out long enough for sanctions, just the opposite.
UPDATE: Similar to regional. Although I remain amazed that the regret statement is persistently highest. Suggests the system's nerves outweigh its hopes.
Tipping Points
- Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%)
- "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%)
- That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%)
- First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%)
My upshot: International arbitrage most likely outcome, but with military buy-in (military is large, powerful and popular, as the Scenario Dynamics Grid notes)
UPDATE: Rising combo of negotiated deal + ElBaradei, with military-in-front scenario declining.
Exit Glidepath
- Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%)
- Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%)
- Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%)
- Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%
My upshot: Mubarak's China model moment has passed (too little, too late), and there's more fear of a Pakistan or Iran path (in aggregate) than the more stable Turkish one. If I'm Israeli, I guess I'm not particularly enamored with any of that.
UPDATE: To me, the most interesting shifts, as Turkey rises (to me, hopeful sign), as does Pakistan (scarier), but Iran dropping (and that's scariest to me).