Egypt Crisis Simulation (addendum)

Wikistrat cuts through the noise and helps our subscribers understand how the current events in Egypt could change the region for years to come. We've released a new video discussing the on-going simulation and what consquences are emerging for the region.

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Writer on another blog was interested in our use of the term "credentializing" WRT the Egyptian military's role in any successful transition to democracy.

Here's how I explained on that blog what we meant by that term:

Credentializing here means that the military’s performance in the hopefully smooth transition marks them as a contributing force for democracy rather than its hindrance, something we would term “delegitimizing.”

The military, as we note, is large and powerful and popular in Egypt. That’s an asset for long-term stability worth protecting, because young democracies tend to be the most warlike–more than mature democracies and more than authoritarian states. If the military serves the right function here (Mubarak gone, but not willy-nilly leaving a vacuum, and the elections happen freely and with little violence), then it becomes seen as the righteous guardian of the republic and not its menace. That is credentializing, because it says the army isn’t just a plaything of the government or protector of any one ruler, but an institution that serves the long-term interests of the nation. Immature democracies are plenty scary in history, and if they’re coupled with a radicalized military, you’ve got trouble. So if the military’s fine standing can be preserved in this transition, they’re credentialized for what comes next, which will be tricky no matter who emerges.