Percentage on vertical axis, hours along horizontal.
Unfolding Pathways
- Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%)
- Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%)
- Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%)
- Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%)
My upshot: Fast and furious, with a military play eventually.
UPDATE: "Rip" scenario falling into third place, so less expectation of speed and more of Mubarak-dumped-by-military feeling.
Regime Response
- Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)
- (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)
- Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)
- Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%)
My upshot: Expectation that Mubarak must go, but that systemic response will follow to reestablish some control once he's thrown to wolves. Amazing to me: just days ago most US experts on Egypt said the security system would hold (as in, hunt them down).
UPDATE: Falling "crack down" and rising "military man" solution, but Mubarak going holds steady.
US Response
- "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%)
- "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%)
- "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%) (20%)
- Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%)
My upshot: Standing by Mubarak too incredible, so US hanging back and then embracing new (probably interim) authority figure is expected.
UPDATE: Rising verdict on US inaction.
Regional Responses
- Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%)
- Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%)
- Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%) (21%)
- Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) (15%)
My upshot: Expectations that now any further vulnerable regimes truly harden out of fear.
UPDATE: Very steady. More a downstream bit, so makes sense.
Global Responses
- "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%)
- "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%)
- "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%)
- "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)
My upshot: Almost nobody sees this dragging out long enough for sanctions, just the opposite.
UPDATE: Similar to regional. Although I remain amazed that the regret statement is persistently highest. Suggests the system's nerves outweigh its hopes.
Tipping Points
- Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%)
- That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%)
- "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)
- First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%)
My upshot: International arbitrage most likely outcome, but with military buy-in (military is large, powerful and popular, as the Scenario Dynamics Grid notes)
UPDATE: Rising combo of negotiated deal + ElBaradei, with military-in-front scenario declining.
Exit Glidepath
- Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%)
- Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%)
- Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%)
- Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)
My upshot: Mubarak's China model moment has passed (too little, too late), and there's more fear of a Pakistan or Iran path (in aggregate) than the more stable Turkish one. If I'm Israeli, I guess I'm not particularly enamored with any of that.
UPDATE: To me, the most interesting shifts, as Turkey rises (to me, hopeful sign), as does Pakistan (scarier), but Iran dropping (and that's scariest to me).
