Wikistrat's Grand Strategy Competition - Week One

Greetings from the Wikistrat team!

In the last 7 days we've had 44,097 actions within the wiki with new information being added at an average rate of once every 10 minutes.

The Week 1 Challenge

Competitors, organized into 38 teams by school or institution, have been assigned either one of 13 possible actors. They were tasked with writing position papers on the following five issues:

• Global Energy Security;
• Global Economic “Rebalancing” Process;
• Salafi Jihadist Terrorism;
• "Chimerica" - China-US Relationship; and
• Southwest Asia Nuclear Proliferation.

The standard of work has been outstanding and Dr. Barnett and the judging panel are hard at work preparing feedback and scores. We'll announce some of those next time.

Wikistrat Middle East Monitor, May 2011

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for May 2011, which can be viewed in its entirety here.

Summary

The killing of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan grabbed the attention of the world, but it has had no effect on the strategic equation of the Middle East. It did not result in upheaval or even a strong outburst of anti-Americanism capable of influencing the Arab Spring. The event will undoubtedly positively affect the West’s efforts to combat Al-Qaeda and its affiliates and has put profound pressure on the relationship with Pakistan, but it does not alter the balance of power by any means in the Middle East.

The region overall is currently at a standstill. There is still a huge amount of internal strife with consistent protests and bloody crackdowns, but there have not been any significant changes in these conflicts. In Libya, each side has fought to a stalemate. In Syria and Yemen, both sides are refusing to budge and the status quo has remained. The protests have grown in number, but neither side can claim that ground has been gained. Of course, these situations can quickly change in the event of key defections, massacres, international intervention, or galvanizing moment for the opposition.

Yemen is currently the country most likely to descend into civil war next month. President Saleh has again backed out of signing a deal to step down from power at the last moment. The time where the opposition concludes a peaceful transfer is impossible is drawing near. Indeed, clashes are quickly escalating in the capital and dozens have been killed. Major tribes and military commanders have defected since the uprising began, which could enable these clashes to quickly turn into civil war. In Yemen, the situation is more like Libya than Syria, as the latter has not seen significant military/government defections or tribal uprisings.

 

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• There are multiple divisions within the Iranian regime putting it in a position of weakness. The parliament is divided between pro-Ahmadinejad and anti-Ahmadinejad camps, with a growing number of members supporting impeachment proceedings. There is also a very public split between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. These divisions could limit Iran’s ability to project power in the region.
• The Arab Spring was unaffected by the Nakba Day provocations against Israel that the U.S. and Israel have accused Syria of engineering. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran almost certainly also were involved. This shows that the revolutions are focused on internal matters and it will be difficult for them to be directed against external actors.
• Hezbollah has publicly taken the side of the Syrian government. This decision will undermine support for the group. Lebanese and Syrians who have generally supported President Assad because of his stance against Israel and the West will have difficulty justifying the killing and detainment of protesters. Furthermore, the pending U.N. indictments of Hezbollah and possibly Syrian officials do serious damage to the group’s image as a “resistance” force.

Risks

• The U.S. and Europe are more vocally supporting the protesters in the region. Western pressure could restrain the governments, but could also convince them that their internal opponents must be immediately crushed in order to alleviate the pressure. It is also possible that demonstrators will become emboldened, thereby escalating the situation into greater violence and putting the West in a more uneasy position.
• The instability in Yemen is very likely to cause a decentralization of power. Al-Qaeda is already advancing in the country, and a weakened government would allow the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels to reassert themselves in the north. The secessionist movement could also be strengthened. Salafists and groups tied to the Muslim Brotherhood will also benefit politically from any democratic process.
• Some governments are releasing Islamist prisoners and reaching out to extremist opponents. This is happening either because they genuinely believe Islamist forces are driving the opposition, or it is a gambit to put an Islamist face on the opposition.

Dependencies

• The impact of the clashes in Sana’a on the military, tribes and general population. The clashes are an indication that the patience of the opposition is running out. The increased bloodshed, combined with the realization that President Saleh is not genuine in his negotiations, could convince the defected military forces that it is time to fight on the side of the people.
• The degree to which Supreme Leader Khamenei believes he must distance himself from the increasingly unpopular President Ahmadinejad. He must also calculate how much he can distance himself, as his own position is weakened because of internal divisions within the regime.
• The effect of the formation of a transitional council by the Syrian opposition on the uprising and on the international community. The U.S. and Europe has hesitated to directly call for President Assad’s resignation and there are consistent news reports indicating that the West is concerned about what a post-Assad Syria could look like. The creation of a transitional council by Syria, as was done by the Libyans, could comfort the West that chaos will not ensue in the event of regime change.

Read the full edition here

Join Wikistrat to get access to more reports and live simulations. Click here to learn more on Wikistrat subscriptions.

CoreGap 11.13 Released - Arab Spring Forcing US to Choose Between Longtime Allies

 

Wikistrat has released edition 11.13 of the CoreGap Bulletin.

This CoreGap edition features, among others:

• Terra Incognita 11.13 - Arab Spring Forcing US to Choose Between Longtime Allies
• IMF Chief’s Abrupt Resignation Sets Off Scramble on Replacement
• Latest Ministerial Meeting of Arctic Council Signals Rule-Making Maturation
• With Bin Laden Dead, US-PRC Military Tension Takes Center Stage
• Victorious in Putsch, Iran’s Ahmadinejad Now Comes Under Clerics' Counterattack

And much more...

The entire bulletin is available for subscribers. Over the upcoming week we will release analysis from the bulletin to our free Geopolitical Analysis section of the Wikistrat website, first being "Terra Incognita: Arab Spring Forcing US to Choose Between Longtime Allies"

US policy in the Middle East has long been based on a troika of bilateral relationships with Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  The relationship with Saudi Arabia was based on the economics of energy, hence Riyadh’s ideological excesses were tolerated – even after 9/11.  With Israel, security has always come first, and with Egypt, stability was prized above all else.  Now, as Egypt evolves tumultuously and Saudi Arabia deploys its own military muscle in defense of fellow monarchies, it’s clear that Washington will no longer enjoy the same relationship with either, leaving the question of how the Washington-Tel Aviv bond will hold up in the months and years ahead.

President Barack Obama’s 19 May speech appeared – at first blush – to throw a giant monkey wrench into those works: by citing the pre-1967 war borders as the framework for a land swap deal leading to a two-state solution, the president seemed to be putting Benjamin Netanyahu’s government on notice.  But subsequent backtracking by Obama in a speech to the powerful pro-Israeli lobby group AIPAC two days later indicated just how unprepared he is to significantly revise this alliance.

Read the full piece here

More about Wikistrat's Subscription can be found here

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?). Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

Referenced from Wikistrat: http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/obamas-chinese-menu-of-past-presidential-doctrines/#ixzz1Gs4QTx6a

Syrian Regime Stability Simulation – Update and Intermediary Summary

What began as a small protest in the small country of Tunisia, the Arab Spring erupted, transforming the political landscape throughout the Middle East and North Africa.  People yearning for better opportunities and political freedom began protests throughout the region.  Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, in power for thirty years, resigned his position under intense pressure, while Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, in power for forty years, clings to power following a NATO airpower-backed rebellion. Bahrain and Yemen also endure protests that endanger their political leadership.  Another country, with a long history of brutal crackdowns against its citizens, with deep-rooted repression from a powerful security apparatus, and a key player in the Middle East peace process, begins to see cracks in its domination from small pockets of protest inspired by the events in region – Syria.

Wikistrat’s Syrian Regime Stability simulation analyzes the uprising in Syria using Wikistrat’s unique platform.  Wikistrat’s analysts and subscribers, led by Chief Analyst Thomas PM Barnett, collaborate online to examine the Syrian Regime’s stability and its effects on key themes.  How will a change in Syria’s Regime affect regional stability including Syria’s relationship with Israel and Saudi Arabia?  How will Syria’s relationship with Iran change and how will it affect the region?  Will terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah benefit from changes in Syria’s government?  Will Kurds rise up against the Syrian Regime or other sectarian violence ensue? 

By incorporating possible scenarios, impacts on the countries involved in the region and diverse policy options for these countries, Wikistrat simulations give its analytic community a continually evolving up-to-date model of the geopolitical reality, rather than a static document.

Some of the Scenarios Proposed and their summaries:

(Scenarios plotted by Ryan Mauro, strategic analyst with Wikistrat and author of worldthreats.com)

 

1) Assad Survives and Quells Dissent – The Assad regime finds itself in a stronger position after violently crushing the uprising. The most influential activists are silenced through various means and the regime is able to identify its opponents and learn how to combat their strategies as a result of this victory. The opposition is demoralized and fractured while some opt to join the government as a minority voice following minor political reforms. The Muslim Brotherhood decides to officially endorse the Assad regime as an ally in the fight against the West.

Suggested by Trevor Westra, of theolog.ca, on the probability of this scenario occurring, “The plausibility of Assad emerging from the current crisis, with his leadership intact, depends heavily on the continued allegiance of the army…His commanders, most of whom are Alawite loyalists, appear firm in their support.” 

2) Assad Survives but is Unstable – Assad adopts a more-liberal tone and institutes minor economic and political reforms. His military stays intact. Visible signs of dissent remain, but the uprising ultimately recedes because its participants cannot organize a formidable opposition movement nationwide. As a result, the West no longer views their support of the opposition as a viable policy option.

A risk of this scenario by Nick Ottens, of www.atlanticsentinel.com, states, “If unrest persists…the burden of unemployment and further undermining the regime’s legitimacy even in the eyes of people who might have a vested interest in its survival.”

3) Assad Survives Through Iranian Intervention – Iranian forces secure Assad's regime, while strengthening its grip on Syria. A brief civil war breaks out but is quickly ended through the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel and terrorists from Hezbollah and Hamas. The IRGC openly operates in Syria and becomes more intimately involved in the operations of the security services and government agencies. A series of agreements making Syria essentially a military base for Iran are signed and the West concludes that luring Syria away from Iran is no longer a viable policy option.

Comments from Mark Safranski, of zenpundit.com, include, “I have great difficulty imagining Israel and the United States tolerating, say, 25,000 – 50,0000 IRGC in combined arms units operating in Syria on behalf and in conjunction with the Syrian Army, slaughtering thousands of Syrians.”

4) Regime Change Brings Moderates to Power – Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Moderates. The Assad regime is removed through a popular uprising and/or military coup. The opposition forces declare victory and the secular democratic opposition comes to the forefront of the transitional government. The Muslim Brotherhood performs well in the parliamentary elections but is a minority. The new government vows to bring Syria closer to the West and institute vast reforms. 

This scenario is summarized by Andrew Eccleston of the American Military University as, “A perfect storm of Iranian miscalculation and division within the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood brings a moderate regime to power in Syria.”

5) Regime Change Brings Muslim Brotherhood into power: Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Muslim Brotherhood leading the parliament. A series of defections from Assad’s government, including the military and intelligence services, leads to a civil war similar to the one in Libya. The Assad regime is removed from power and the Muslim Brotherhood declares victory. The Brotherhood and other Islamist parties hold a majority in the new parliament after elections are held and oversee the writing of a new constitution which makes Islam the primary source of legislation. The new government says it will maintain close ties to Iran and will continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah.

Professor Robert Edwin Kelly, of asiansecurityblog, also contributed to this simulation as to whether the United States should abstain from taking action in Syria. “[T]he ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) threshold must stay somewhat high, otherwise the West could get chain-ganged into multiple human rights interventions that will increasingly look to Arab audiences like neo-imperialism.”

To Join Wikistrat's Simulation and Interactive Wiki - click here

Wikistrat Competition Featured in Reuters

As our wiki grows, with the competitors reading and debating grand strategy, Wikistrat was featured in Reuters's piece by Peter Apps titled: "As China Rises, 'Grand Strategy' talk back in style".

Some relevant excerpts:

When Israeli-based political risk consultancy Wikistrat launched a month-long online grand strategy competition between universities, military colleges and similar institutions around the world, it was taken aback by the level of interest.

The contest, which begins this month, will cover the next two decades of global history with teams representing roughly a dozen countries needing to form alliances and adapt to shocks such as revolutions and conflicts.

"I really think it's caught the spirit of the moment," says Wikistrat CEO Joel Zamel. "There is much more interest in a kind of 'grand strategy' approach.

"We've had much more interest from around the world than we expected -- Indian universities will be representing India, Israeli universities Israel, Singaporean Singapore, Japanese Japan, U.S. schools the U.S.. We've had to keep adding countries."

...

"The war on terror really pushed grand strategy to one side, but as that seems to be winding down there is much more focus on it," said Robert Farley, professor of international relations at the University of Kentucky.

"Students know they will need it in their careers, whether in public service or the private sector. We've recently failed students for failing to be able to answer questions on the rise of China, for example."

Read the full piece here

CoreGap 11.12 Released - At the Time of his Demise, OBL was OBE

Wikistrat has released edition 11.12 of the CoreGap Bulletin.

This CoreGap edition features, among others:

• Terra Incognita 11.12 - At the Time of his Demise, OBL was OBE
• Bin Laden Killing Comes at Pivotal Moment in US Operations in Afghanistan
• Pakistan’s Longtime Duplicity Comes to Fore with Bin Laden Operation
• Latest Census in China Triggers Fears of Demographic Decline
• African Development Bank Group Details Rise of Middle Class There

And much more...

The entire bulletin is available for subscribers. Over the upcoming week we will release analysis from the bulletin to our free Geopolitical Analysis section of the Wikistrat website, first being "Terra Incognita - At the Time of his Demise, OBL was OBE"

It would seem that reports of Osama Bin Laden’s leadership of al-Qaeda these past few years were greatly exaggerated.  By the time the equally shadowy SEAL Team 6 put that bullet through his brain, the great man was living in a million-dollar “cave” whose primary purpose was to keep him decidedly off grid – out of reach and out of touch.  But Osama Bin Laden was overtaken by events a long time ago.

Globalization was more concept than reality a decade ago. “Rising” China? The muffled sound of a train gaining speed in the distance.  One could imagine globalization’s easy reversal thanks to the right bomb exploded in the right place at the right time. Vladimir Lenin, the most pragmatic of revolutionaries, referred to such wishful thinking as “left-wing deviationism – an infantile disorder.” Bin Laden had it bad. 

Pulling off one of the greatest lucky shots in history (both barrels, mind you), Bin Laden sent the West spinning into an orgy of new rules, wild spending, and poorly thought-out postwars (the initial takedowns were works of real artistry). Proving beyond all doubt that we live in a world in which super-empowered individuals can engineer vertical shocks of the highest order, he nonetheless succumbed to the most prosaic of horizontal scenarios – the methodical manhunt that only a vast national security bureaucracy can mount. “Operation Geronimo” was aptly named:  the mythical warrior reduced to a legend’s lonely death.

Read the full piece here

More about Wikistrat's Subscription can be found here

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?). Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

Referenced from Wikistrat: http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/obamas-chinese-menu-of-past-presidential-doctrines/#ixzz1Gs4QTx6a

Mapping the Future

Students From Top Ranked Universities Will Use Wikistrat's Platform to Map the Future

35 Teams Will Compete in First Wiki-Based Grand Strategy Competition

Wikistrat is excited to announce the complete list of competitors participating in the upcoming International Grand Strategy Competition. Teams comprising of PHD and masters students from elite international schools, as well as emerging experts from internationally renowned think tanks, will compete this June in the online wiki-based International Grand Strategy Competition, managed by former Pentagon strategist, and Wikistrat Chief Analyst, Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett.

Students from elite institutions including: 

• Oxford University
• University of Cambridge
• King’s College of London
• Center for Strategic and International Studies
• Yale University
• Columbia University
• Georgetown University
• NATO’s Atlantic Treaty Association
• Johns Hopkins University
• University of Pennsylvania
• US Air Force
• New York University and 
• Tel Aviv University.

These international universities, which educate tomorrow’s entrepreneurs, politicians, military leaders and innovators, will all compete for the $10,000 grand prize. 

They’ll be joined by teams from:

• UK Defense Forum
• Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
• Institute for World Politics
• University College of London
• Aberystwyth University
• Indian Institute of Technology
• Ohio State University
• Ohio University
• Texas A&M University
• University of Texas at Austin
• American Military University
• Mercyhurst University
• Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at Kentucky University
• Claremont Graduate University
• Finance University of Russia
• School of Oriental and African Studies
• Osaka University and 
• Nanyang Technological University. 

“As the world finds itself in a time of unprecedented change, from the geopolitical turbulence shaking the Middle East with the Arab 2.0 revolutions and the death of Bin-Laden, to the continued growth of emerging economic pillars in the East despite global economic challenges, 2011 presents a fitting time for a revolution in global strategic thinking,” said CEO Joel Zamel. “Utilizing a uniquely interactive Web 2.0 approach that allows for collaboration among experts, Wikistrat is leading the way in revolutionizing the way we conduct geopolitical analysis. We are very excited about the opportunity to expose hundreds of strategic analysts from around the world to Wikistrat’s unique methodology.”

Using Wikistrat’s innovative and interactive model, the teams- each representing a country- will formulate strategies on five issues: global energy security; global economic rebalancing; international terrorism; the Sino-American relationship; and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Teams will create pages of content on the wiki and scores will be tallied each week based on each team’s depth of analysis.

The high caliber of the participants has attracted the attention of corporate sponsors and Wikistrat is currently finalizing sponsorships agreements with firms who realize the recruiting potential of the Competition. Corporations looking to identify the brightest emerging analytic talent will observe the Competition as it unfolds, watching the next generation of geopolitical strategists in action.

Zamel is eager to see how the participants will adapt to Wikistrat’s model and use it to their advantage: “Wikistrat is giving tomorrow's leaders a unique opportunity and I’m excited to see how these elite competitors will utilize our innovative model to map the future and provide fresh perspectives on the world's biggest challenges.”

Complete details of the competition are available at http://about.wikistrat.com/competition-media/.

"Wikipedia meets Facebook" - Wikistrat's Competition on Jpost

Article on the Jerusalem Post Business News featuring Wikistrat's upcoming Grand Strategy Competition

As instability in the Middle East continues to confuse even the world’s most important decision makers, a small Israeli start-up has launched a new wiki-based competition that it hopes will revolutionize grand strategic planning.

Thirty-five teams of students and analysts from leading academic and military institutions including Columbia, Georgetown, Oxford and the United States Air Force have already registered for Wikistrat’s Grand Strategy Competition. It will take place throughout June and will be judged by Dr. Thomas Barnett, former senior adviser to the US secretary of defense, and Michael Barrett, former director of strategy at the White House Homeland Security Council.

Wikistrat CEO Joel Zamel, who together with fellow Australian expat Daniel Green founded the company in Israel last year, said the competition, which they have dubbed “Grand Strategy 2.0,” would provide participants with a “Wikipedia meets Facebook collaborative space for generating content.”

“Generically this kind of work [strategic planning] is done in the form of static reports: that’s the industry standard,” Zamel told The Jerusalem Post. “This is different because it’s wiki-based, allowing strategists and analysts from around the world to collaboratively generate content.”

Read the full article here.

More on the competition at Wikistrat's website

Wikistrat Middle East Monitor, April 2011

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for April 2011, which can be viewed in its entirety here.

Summary

The biggest changes in April came in Syria, Yemen and the Palestinian Territories. These changes do not decisively shift the balance of power in the region but are important developments that could lead to different strategic situations.

The Friday protests in Syria escalate each week, as does the violence. This is not a decisive change from the previous month but shows that there is a strong destabilizing trend in Syria. The uprising has only strengthened in the wake of violent suppression. There are now clashes between soldiers in the 5^th Division in Daraa who have refused orders to shoot civilians, and the 4^th Division, led by Maher Assad, the brother of President Bashar Assad. This could portend a division in the military and security forces.

President Saleh and the opposition parties have agreed to a deal where he would step down within 30 days and then elections would be scheduled. Large-scale violence has continued despite this settlement and it is still possible that Saleh will find a pretext to try to justify a reneging on the agreement. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s intervention in pressuring Saleh to step down is an important development as it shows there are limits to which the Gulf governments are willing to stand by each other in the wake of popular unrest and human rights abuses.

The reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah towards the end of the month is another significant development. It could bolster the Palestinian Authority’s campaign to gain U.N. and international recognition for Palestine as an independent state. The cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Fatah is a dangerous development for Israel, as it means that the Palestinian Authority will not be fully committed to fighting the terrorist group’s operations.

 

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• The uprising in Syria presents two opportunities for the West: Firstly, it weakens the Assad regime and raises the possibility that it will be overthrown, which would lead to a major strategic shift. Secondly, the violence puts tremendous pressure on the international community including the Arab world to punish the Syrian government. The Assad regime may survive but will be in a much weakened and cautious state.
• The potential for Iran to exploit unrest in the Arab world, along with its pursuit of nuclear weapons and support of terrorism, could make it more likely that Arab states will support tougher sanctions and other measures against the Iranian government.
• The Arab Spring forces the Arab governments and the Iranian regime to focus on internal matters rather than external enemies like the U.S. and Israel. The governments may try to instigate an international crisis, seeking strategic advantages or political stability, but their populations are blaming their rulers for their unsatisfactory conditions and not foreign actors.

Risks

• There is potential for civil war or sectarian violence in Syria, as the regime’s Alawite militia appears loyal. The Alawite minority could also fear a post-Assad Syria, allowing the regime to raise recruits. Any terrorists or Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel harbored by the Assad regime should also be expected to fight on the regime’s behalf, including against defected military personnel.
• The Iranian regime may seek to solve its political troubles by engaging in foreign conflict, or may simply intervene in Bahrain as a strategic move. Hardline Iranian officials are now openly calling for intervention.
• The reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, though it is unlikely to last, could give Hamas a greater ability to operate. The terrorist group has engaged in increased amount of terrorist attacks against Israel in the past two months.

Dependencies

• The willingness of the Syrian military to follow orders to massacre civilians. This will be the most important factor in judging the future of the revolution in Syria and whether it will be defeated, civil war will ensue or if the Assad regime will fall.
• The calculations of the Iranian government regarding Bahrain. It is not a vital interest of Iran that the Bahraini government fall or that Saudi forces be forced to leave, but these are certainly goals. It is difficult to judge whether the exceptionally-heated rhetoric coming from Iran indicates an actual desire to become deeply involved and if so, what the limits to this intervention would be.
• The limits to which the coalition in Libya is willing to assist the rebels, such as through arms, greater action against Qaddafi or even through the deployment of ground forces.

Join Wikistrat to get access to more reports and live simulations. Click here to learn more on Wikistrat subscriptions.

CoreGap 11.11 Released - What to Do With Despots Who Fight to the Bitter End?

Wikistrat has released edition 11.11 of the CoreGap Bulletin.

This CoreGap edition features, among others:

• Terra Incognita - What to Do With Despots Who Fight to the Bitter End?
• Bahrain Repression Indicates Just How Scared of Iran the Saudis Truly Are
• IMF and Standard & Poors Both Issue Warnings on Unprecedented US Debt
• As Libyan Stalemate Looms, NATO Increases Involvement
• South Africa Formally Joins BRIC Group, Signaling China’s Dominance

And much more...

The entire bulletin is available for subscribers. Over the upcoming week we will release analysis from the bulletin to our free Geopolitical Analysis section of the Wikistrat website, first being "Terra Incognita - What to Do With Despots Who Fight to the Bitter End?"

Whether or not the planet’s ongoing wave of political revolt ultimately earns the moniker, the “fourth great wave of democratization,” intervening great powers ponder the question of what to do with leaders who are deposed or in extreme jeopardy. The realist is more willing to cut a deal for immunity, so long as a quick departure is achieved and bloodshed subsequently ended.  The idealist tends to be uncompromising, demanding a trial suitable for the “many crimes” committed by the despot over the years – or perhaps just the preceding few weeks.  In truth, there are no easy answers – just historical precedents that rarely translate across political border.

One thing seems clear:  if the leader and his family are not hurried out of the country, eventually the rebels or revolutionaries get around to levying their charges.  On this score, one has to wonder if it would not have been better for the US and Saudi Arabia to have whisked the Mubarak family from Egypt.  Now facing charges that conceivably result in death penalties, the fate of father Hosni and son Gamal has to weigh heavily elsewhere in the region, where historically most leaders are either killed or die in office. Already we see similar dynamics at work.

Read the full piece here

More about Wikistrat's Subscription can be found here

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?). Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

Referenced from Wikistrat: http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/obamas-chinese-menu-of-past-presidential-doctrines/#ixzz1Gs4QTx6a

International Grand Strategy Competition - Last Week to Sign Up

As Wikistrat International Grand Strategy Competition is getting closer, more analysts representing leading universities and research institutes are coming on board. For all of you who still don't know what it's all about - have a look here. The first ever collaborative Grand Strategy Competition will take place online throughout June with select teams competing for the $10,000 prize.

This week is the last opportunity to sign up. The best teams will join an exclusive group of teams representing top institutes such as Georgetown University, CSIS, New York University, Columbia University CSIS, the Institute for World Politics, NATO's Atlantic Treaty Association and many more...

If you wish to join - Apply now.

CoreGap 11.10 Released - How the Frugal Superpower Navigates Democracy’s Latest Wave

 Wikistrat has released edition 11.10 of the CoreGap Bulletin.

This CoreGap edition features, among others:

• Terra Incognita - How the Frugal Superpower Navigates Democracy’s Latest Wave
• Syrian Domino Displaying the Usual Dynamics, but West Hesitant
• China’s Democracy Crackdown Goes from Preventative to Pre-emptive
• Bold Republican Budget Proposal Sets Tone for US Presidential Campaign
• World’s Scientific Production Grows, Becomes Increasingly non-Western

And much more...

The entire bulletin is available for subscribers. Over the upcoming week we will release analysis from the bulletin to our Geopolitical Analysis section of the Wikistrat website, first being "Terra Incognita: How the Frugal Superpower Navigates Democracy’s Latest Wave"

In the rush to define President Barack Obama’s “doctrine” following his decision to lead NATO’s initial no-fly-zone operations in Libya, experts have latched onto every detail’s possible meaning.  But in the end, it’s easier to say what his strategy is not than what it is.  While frustrating, such ambiguity makes sense for a cost-conscious superpower navigating what is arguably democracy’s emerging 4^th great wave (see Samuel Huntington re: 1-3).

The Obama rule set clearly lacks rigidity.  It does not promise responses everywhere, but more like anywhere it can get away with them.  In application it is opportunistic: Obama sees a chance to finally put the US on the right side of history across the Arab world, and he intends on picking his targets carefully – and in logical sequence.  So old friend Hosni Mubarak is just that – until he isn’t.  And now the same switcheroo occurs with Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen.  Expect similar small talk about closet “reformer” Bashar al-Assad to disappear the instant conditions appear ripe in Syria.

Read the full piece here

More about Wikistrat's Subscription can be found here

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?). Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

Referenced from Wikistrat: http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/obamas-chinese-menu-of-past-presidential-doctrines/#ixzz1Gs4QTx6a

Syrian Regime Stability in Question - New Simulation at Wikistrat

"Over the long-term, the current structure of the regime is not sustainable. It will need massive reforms to improve the economy and to give representation to its restive minorities and the majority Sunni population. The government’s best prospect is for a flow of investment from the West or neighbors in the region to bring in enough revenue to alleviate domestic pressure. The uprisings in the region are emboldening the domestic opposition and will quicken the trend towards liberalization. The regime will have to play a delicate balancing act of incremental liberalization while preserving its ability to prevent the flow of information and attempts to organize by its opponents. The regime appears to have calculated that the widespread use of violence is an acceptable and credible strategy to achieve its stabilization."   From Wikistrat's "Syrian Regime Stability" Simulation

Wikistrat is launching yet another simulation in a series of collaborative simulations. Following the "Turkey's Rise" and "Death of Kim Jong Il" simulations, we are now exploring the various scenarios, impacts and policy options given the sensitive situation in Syria.

Some of the questions we ask ourselves in this interactive experience are:

• How will the protests expected unfold? What would be the Tipping Point?
• What would be the implications of a failure to remove Assad from office?
• How can this affect the Radical Axis (Iran, North Korea) vs. the Moderate Axis?
• What does instability in Syria mean for Israel?
• How should the US respond to the current events in Syria?
• Should the Arab World stand by president Assad, or support the protesters?

If you are a topic expert on Syria and wish to participate, contact us here.

Scenarios Explored:

To begin with, 5 generic scenarios, looking at how the protests may unfold, were mapped and are being developed by the expert community. More scenarios will be added as the simulation grows. Each scenario is examined through its regional and global implications, the risks and opportunities it possesses and its assessed probability. Analysts then shift to checking how the events impact the interests of various powers (US, Israel, Iran, Lebanon and more), and what policy options these actors can adopt to tackle the developments in Syria.

1. Assad Survives and Quells Dissent - The Assad regime finds itself in a stronger position after violently crushing the uprising. The most influential activists are silenced through various means and the regime is able to identify its opponents and learn how to combat their strategies as a result of this victory. The opposition is demoralized and fractured and some opt to join the government as a minority voice following minor political reforms. The Muslim Brotherhood decides to officially endorse the Assad regime as an ally in the fight against the West.
2. Assad Survives but is Unstable - Assad’s military stays intact and the uprising ultimately is contained and recedes. Visible signs of dissent remain but the opposition is unable to pose an organized, nationwide challenge to the regime. Assad changes his tone to sound more liberal and institutes minor economic and political reforms. The opposition vows to fight on but the West believes that they will not be successful for the foreseeable future absent a dramatic development. The West eliminates support the opposition as a viable policy option.
3. Assad Survives Through Iranian Intervention - Iranian forces secure Assad's regime, while strengthening its grip on Syria. A brief civil war breaks out but is quickly ended through the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel and terrorists from Hezbollah and Hamas. The IRGC openly operates in Syria and becomes more intimately involved in the operations of the security services and government agencies. A series of agreements making Syria essentially a military base for Iran are signed and the West concludes that luring Syria away from Iran is no longer a viable policy option.
4. Regime Change Brings Moderates to Power - Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Moderates. The Assad regime is removed through a popular uprising and/or military coup. The opposition forces declare victory and the secular democratic opposition comes to the forefront of the transitional government. The Muslim Brotherhood performs well in the parliamentary elections but is a minority. The new government vows to bring Syria closer to the West and institute vast reforms.
5. Regime Change Brings Muslim Brotherhood to Power - Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Muslim Brotherhood leading the parliament. A series of defections from Assad’s government, including the military and intelligence services, leads to a civil war similar to the one in Libya. The Assad regime is removed from power and the Muslim Brotherhood declares victory. The Brotherhood and other Islamist parties hold a majority in the new parliament after elections are held and oversee the writing of a new constitution which makes Islam the primary source of legislation. The new government says it will maintain close ties to Iran and will continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah.

Question from Oxford student (and Wikistrat grand strategy competitor) on starting out in the field

I'm a first year graduate student at Oxford studying Economic and Social History--a program that applies different social scientific frameworks to the study of history. I'm very interested in geopolitical analysis, and, as the first of my degree's two years draws to a close, I'm beginning to start looking at what might come next.

Zach Miller, head of the Oxford team competing in the Wikistrat grand strategy competition.

As Wikistrat starts collecting college/think thank teams for its grand strategy competition in June, certain requests come my way in terms of career advice.  So here's my take on the general query above.

I can only advise on the basis of my experience, because I've made no study of the question.  So naturally I'm going to be biased toward certain means and ends.  I will also try to genericize this answer so it's not specifically just about US tracks.

In general, I advocate getting a PhD before leaving, and I don't advocate taking time off along the way.  Why? Every bit of time off the academic track raises the possibility of never finishing, which happens to all sorts of people for all sorts of good reasons, the primary ones being marriage followed by kids and a decent enough living in a good job that you figure, "I really don't need to bother with the PhD."  Later on, though, most people still regret this decision and wish they could have found (or still find) the time, but it's just too hard. Personally, I know I never would have gone back to finish, even though I suspect I might have been able to finish the dissertation on the side while working early in my career. It just would have been a killer on my marriage and made me a wholly absent husband (rehabbing that house was truly fun) and father (who wants to miss their first-born's life-and-death struggle with advanced cancer?) at a time when I would have regretted just as much as missing the PhD opportunity, so I'm glad I sequenced it.

If you can stay and get it done, it's so much faster and you get the experience in full, plus you get the side experience of teaching, which is great for teaching you basic skills of explanation and grading conceptual presentations.  You also learn confidence in getting up in front of audiences.  Overall, very much worth the effort.

But, if you're like me, you'll also need to work several other jobs while you finish the PhD (I was also a super for a large apartment building), and the juggling there is also worth mastering, because if you end up like I have, working out of my home office for a wide variety of organizations, you'll come close to having the same life dynamics.

I was able to get this process done during the first few years of my marriage (1-4), while my wife did her early career work (although she could have gone on in a vein similar to me and we could have pulled that off as well).  Between us, living cheaply with no kids, we had plenty of disposable income, so we did a lot of fun things together that not only solidified the marriage, but smoothed the intense time of my writing a dissertation.  It meant we put off kids until year 6, but we found that worthwhile to do too, so that our marriage was well-established by the time we started a family and I was completely done with school.  Side issues, it may seem, but being unhappy in your life isn't worth a career track.

The two primary reasons to get the PhD are:

1. You've got the union card, meaning you have the adjunct teaching option that much more easily obtained - if desired, and there may be some point where you actually want to go academic, like I did at the Naval War College - point being there are no glass ceilings to be confronted once you have the union card; and,
2. It's just a great experience to write a book-length defensible piece of analytic worth.  You will never get this duo of deeds in any other setting professionally.  You can seek near-equivalents, but nothing quite like it, and I just think it's incredibly worthwhile to have that all under your belt before starting out.

After that, I think it's important to go to a good "finishing school," or a place of high analytic rigor that teaches you professional research and writing and presentational skills - before you do anything else.  These skills in the real world are far different from those taught in academia, which really only prepares you to be an academic in terms of practical skills.  

Private consulting firms can do this, but you really want to go a top one where there's tons of established talent, otherwise, you can easily end up being the "talent" yourself in a small shop, and there you will scramble to lead work without any real apprenticeship, so learning will be lost or achieved only under the most painful circumstances (shoulda, coulda, woulda).

My first job was with a very small shop and they were using my name and degree to try and win contracts, which was a sign of their small and desperate status.  I was immediately thrust into work of a highly detailed and technical nature and I had no idea what I was doing.  Two weeks in, a better offer came from a major analytic firm that worked for the navy and Marine Corps, and I jumped ship instantly, realizing the "finishing school" opportunity that was lacking in my small "beltway bandit" shop.

You can find such apprenticeships in think tanks, government research arms, etc.  You just want to avoid the busy-work places that use up all your time in process (I wouldn't recommend the legislature right out for that reason) - if you want to build that intellectual infrastructure in your head.  Fine to jump into process-heavy things later, but I suggest 4-6 years in a place like I described, learning the basics of professional research.

Once you've done that, then it's all a question of what you want to do and whom you want to do it with.  You can go ideological with a think thank or go functional with foreign policy, foreign aid or defense.  Personally, I think the latter two are more complex and unique and thus require the more direct experience.  I think the foreign policy/State stuff can be picked up by moderate exposure, but the aid/defense stuff is more technically inaccessible from the outside, so some inside time is useful.  

So that's what I did:  working mostly directly with the military, and spending several years working with USAID.  I always had interactions with State but I never put in the time there as either a direct hire or contractor.  But if you want the 3D perspective, which I think is key, then you want to hit as many of those as possible, prioritizing the complex defense, then aid, then diplomacy.  I think another reason why I felt most comfortable going light on diplomacy was that I was a political science major, so I had the most academic standing in that general field.  So I guess I would say mix and match as per your academic trajectory.

Another reason why I focused on defense (which, frankly, surprised me afterwards because I had no intention of doing so while in school): most development is done by the private sector, so the aid stuff teaches you about failed/failing states but doesn't teach you all that much about what works outside that troubled realm. But defense, especially that practiced by the US, is truly unique, so understanding that reality helps a lot on the geostrategic thinking. A lot of experts think they can learn that from a distance, but I say no. Some direct exposure is required because it's a very closed - and close - tribe (which is why I don't necessarily advocate direct service in uniform, because a lot of minds never escape that thinking even as a few do so spectacularly - so again, know yourself).

Once I had those experiences in hand, I felt like I knew the government scene, but I felt rather slow on globalization-the-economic process.  Yes, I had taken plenty of economics in college and grad school; I just didn't know business.

I have described my career journey as figuring out the world through the New York Times (my international relations PhD/academic experience) first, then figuring out Washington (via the Post) next (my time at Center for Naval Analyses), and then figuring out Wall Street/business through picking up the WS Journal/Financial Times/Economist and my time working with Cantor Fitzgerald (bond broker-dealer) while at the Naval War College and then my stint in Enterra Solutions since 2005.  I had read all these papers all along; I just didn't "get" them in full until I has the associated experience to go with them, so it was my MSM equivalent of diplomacy (NYT), defense (WAPO) and development (WSJ/FT/Economist).

By the time I had gone through my stint in the Pentagon following 9/11, I was finally - at just over age 40 - operating at my full powers.  I fully expected it would take that long, and never worried about keeping pace with others who did things earlier.  I really wanted to do the apprenticeship route sufficiently so that when I really broke out my big ideas, they were truly big and representative of my journey versus stuff I just dreamed up and hoped would establish me.  In John Boyd terms, I wanted to "do" before I took on the "be," and in truth, I am still focused on the "do" versus "be" and may very well end up sticking with the former my entire life, because I just so like the evolution mentally versus the "job," which I tend to fear for its numbing requirements. I also now realize I will only sacrifice so much for the "guru" track, in part because I find the media work such a creativity killer and I know that limits my reach. But you have to go with what makes you feel most creative, in my opinion, because, at the end of the day, that's all you've got. Jobs and profile come and go with tastes and forces beyond your control, but your creativity is THE asset worth protecting within your career. The global financial crisis actually helped me in this regard, by cutting back the speaking opportunities and forcing me back to more consulting/analysis, which I am finding tremendously renewing and easier on my family life - just when I needed it - because the travel is less hectic and I avoid being too much in broadcast mode. Not that I don't still love the speaking, because that is a favorite career addiction of mine and I'm gearing up right now for a slew of speeches in late April though early June. I just like this new balance better and - again - it came just in time family-wise.

But that's just me.  Like my post to the OH student, I came to realize that I live for the ideas and the analysis more than the decision-making power.  That may be because I'm the 8th of 9 kids and I wasn't raised to be the #1 son/daughter with "responsibility."  But it's also why I'm so creative, something that's always created a certain amount of friction for me. 

[Having said that, realize that everybody has their definitions of what constitutes "do" versus "be."  It just depends on what you consider the "doing."]

Some of the best advice I ever got was from a legend in the technical means field by the name of Gary Federici. Gary was genius level on the subject of bureaucracies and struggles within them, and he was an eminent producer talent, meaning he knew how to assemble minds and exploit them.  He told me early in my career that I was an amazingly creative thinker and that most people in most organizations would hate me for that ability, primarily because of its disruptive potential.  So he advised me to chart a fairly self-reliant and independent course, because if I hoped organizations would elevate and reward me on that basis, I would end up a bitter old man.  Gary was absolutely right, which is why I've spent my years since associating myself with Gary-type people - the more the better.  My motto is the old Roman proverb:  the slave with many masters is a free man.

So that's my basic advice on career tracking, with the following amendments:

• Never turn down a speaking opportunity.
• Always volunteer to be the main writer, because the power of the first draft, as I like to call it, is about 80 percent of the final product.  Plus, just like with speaking, you only get better by doing.
• Always associate yourself with editors, because they are your best route to becoming a good writer, other than reading other good writers and practicing a lot yourself.
• Don't repeat your work if you can help it.  If you want to think horizontally, then it must be new frontiers all the time - or as much of the time as possible.
• Associate with mentors who recognize your best skills, and avoid those who want to work on your weaknesses.  Spending a life working on weaknesses is a loser track.  Spending a life working on your strengths is a way to be magnificently happy - meaning successful in the way you like being successful versus somebody else's definition.
• Get good agents (and I use that term loosely) for all the skills you suck at.  I have multiple and they all make me who I am. They are worth the money you pay them.
• Get married and have kids and put your family first, because you will likely live a very long life and this career will end, and when it does, and you're old, you will learn this truth: nobody ever lies on their death bed saying, I wish I accomplished more. They all say, I wish I treated my loved ones better.  My wife puts it this way: Do not treat strangers better than your family. People who become addicted to their careers typically do that, and it leaves them standing alone in the end, and no career and no accomplishments are worth that tragedy, because you only have one life to live.

But again, my advice is for someone like me.  I hate creative repetition in my work, but I love and am almost Zen-like in my desire to experience repetition in my personal life.  So I accept a certain lone-wolf reality in my career as the price for my being an idea hamster, and I balance by having a very stable home life.  I will take my kids, in succession, to many Packer games where it's just me and that kid on the long trek to Green Bay. None of them care about football.  They want the same experience with me that I had going to baseball doubleheaders with my Dad at Milwaukee County Stadium (the Brewers).  I work primarily to get the money that allows my home life to proceed as I believe it should.  I live in a place like Indy for the same reasons (crappy for my career, great for my kids and family).  Everybody makes choices and lives with the consequences.  The only good career is one that reflects those choices and self-awareness.  Otherwise you're 49, living in a condo in Reston, driving that red Miata convertible, hitting on interns half your age, and seeing your kids every other weekend. To me, that's hell on earth. To others, it's the reality they bumped into unconsciously as a result of being un-self-aware in their careers and just doing what was expected of them instead of what they truly desired.  

But again, it all depends on what you fear/love more: I have zero fear of career disruption, and frankly enjoy the scary prospect of regular reinvention and lateral moves into entirely new circumstances. Other people think that's hell on earth, and will do whatever - personally - to keep the "career" on track. Me? I would -and routinely do - sacrifice career to keep the family as stable as possible (and to enable our continued growth in new kids , because that fulfills my spouse's life desire and I find it natural enough [coming as 8 of 9] and likewise useful in improving my thinking over time by exposing me to all sorts of unexpected things, like raising strong African-American women - not something I had put down on my bucket list per se!). [Note also my statement to the OH student: If you want to be a futurist in your thinking, you need to have kids - however achieved, because you need that forced life extension beyond your selfish self.] I would experience such a profound sense of failure if my family broke up, but I experience zero sense of failure over career troubles/challenges. Again, a lot of people in this world are the other way around nowadays, going through spouses and families. It's just about what you value. I simply know I could not be creative if my life was a mess. To be creative, I need to be in a very special place - what I define as "life safe." But "career safe"? I have no idea what that is because I've never achieved it or - as I now realize - sought it.

[And I will tell you that that last bit was very hard for me to achieve in self-awareness, because I am my mother's child and she grew up with a father like me and found it extremely upsetting because he was a highly creative, boisterous, addictive type who lived with very little career stability even as he provided good home stability despite his wife (my grandmother) dying while my mom was a teenager. So my mom, naturally, has spent her life with me preaching the exact opposite of the career I've chosen. All of my six siblings have lived careers primarily spent with big companies/government agencies, suffering the usual tumults there but never being the spread-out, highly independent actor I have been since '05, which she thinks is pretty nutty.]

In the end, being a strong thinker in the vein described here requires a tremendous amount of self-awareness, and you can't get that if you lose yourself in a career. You need a certain distance from life, however achieved, to obtain the clarity of view. To me, that's a better life but hardly the only life. It's "better" because it fits me, and it yields the career I find most exciting, coupled with the personal freedom I deem most crucial.

Also realize that I will answer this question differently in ten years.  Maybe I make the f@#k-you money by then because my wife and I can only adopt so many kids before our age cancels us out (then again, she is already talking foster kids for the follow-on), and say the right candidate comes along (admittedly, he or she will more likely be Republican than Democrat, despite my voting habits) and I decide I want to retake the DC plunge. If I did, it would be a predictable-enough one:  the 20-month stint before I must return home to prevent my family from imploding. Then again, there are so many fascinating business opportunities out there in emerging and frontier economies, that I might find the true "grand strategic" opportunities more there than in government (my current sense).  Point being, my life rationalizations are always subject to review.

Wikistrat Middle East Monitor, March 2011

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for March 2011, which can be viewed in entirety by clicking here.

Summary

The U.N.-authorized intervention in Libya appears to have monopolized the attention of the world media, but the Middle East is a region in flux undergoing rapid changes. As stated in the previous bulletins, the region is a significantly different place with each passing month. The sparking of an uprising in Syria is equally as important as the conflict in Libya, if not more so. The Yemeni government teeters on the edge of conflict and the Saudi and possible Iranian intervention in Bahrain are defining moments in the Arab Spring, as the revolutions are increasingly referred to.

The conflicts in the Middle East were largely internal in nature until March, as this month saw the entry of foreign intervention in several places. Libya is the most obvious example, with a U.N.-backed coalition (and possibly Al-Qaeda) backing the rebels and Muammar Qaddafi being supported by Syria, Belarus and possibly Algeria and others. Saudi and Emirati forces entered Bahrain to support the Royal Family and Iranian ayatollahs are reportedly registering volunteers to wage war on the Bahraini government. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have also begun launching attacks on Israel, likely with the intent of fomenting a conflict to stabilize their own rule and that of Bashar Assad in Syria.

These trends indicate that, as has been the case since January, the Middle East will look quite different in April than it did in March. The uprisings are spreading and outside powers are playing a greater role in these internal struggles. The attacks on Israel, the largest since 2009, indicate that Iran, Syria and their terrorist allies believe a confrontation is in their interest.

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• The uprising in Syria puts the Baathist regime in a weak and frightened position, making it increasingly susceptible to outside pressure. The West can leverage this instability to try to force behavioral changes or even foment regime change.
• The West, especially the U.S., has a rare chance to counter the image that its foreign policy is based on imperialism through supporting compliant tyrants.
• The pressure on the Arab regimes can be utilized to force oppressive governments that are Western allies into implementing changes to appease the population and open the door to globalization that can result in positive changes over the long-term.

Risks

• The temptation is high for Iran, Syria and their extremist allies to intervene on the side of forces fighting pro-American Arab governments and to confront Israel to cure their own ills.
• The West risks further alienating the Arab populations and inadvertently assisting anti-American extremist forces by not taking a strong stand in support of the demands of the protesters.
• The West also faces the risk of being seen as an unreliable ally, therefore undermining relations with governments with poor human rights records and potentially pushing them to look for new allies on the world stage.

Dependencies

• The sensitivity of the populations to the use of violence by the government. It can either cause a popular backlash or successfully disperse a large crowd and intimidate the opposition.
• The willingness of security forces to use violence. Orders to carry out shootings can cause defections among government personnel and dramatically weaken the regime.
• The desire of outside powers to intervene in the affairs of other countries and provoke conflict with the ruling governments for strategic advantage.

Join Wikistrat to get access to more reports and live simulations. Our next simulation - on Syria's Stability - will be launched soon and will include the examination of various scenarios and policy options conducted live on our wiki. Click here to learn more on Wikistrat subscriptions.

Turkey - Re-Rise of the Ottoman Empire?

One of the most interesting things we do in Wikistrat is Scenario Planning. Through the use of live collaborative simulations, our analysts and subscribers alike engage in the mapping of scenarios, country interests and policy options on a given issue. We ran such drills on Egypt (The Egypt War Room) and on the "Sudden death of Kim Jong Il".

Our current Simulation is on Turkey, and deals with its political and economic rise in the Middle East, its implications and potential pathways. So far several interesting scenarios were mapped, as well as interests and policy objectives for major regional and global powers affected by Turkey's Rise.

Essentially we ask - Will Turkey's rise continue? Will its relations with the West deteriorate given its "Shift eastward"? And- How should the US, the EU, Israel, Iran and the KSA react?

Below is the introduction to the drill, written by Dr. Barnett, and some of the scenarios written by Wikistrat's subscribers and analysts collaboratively. The simulation is still running, so more to expect. If you wish to participate in this simulation and our upcoming exciting simulations, you can subscribe here.

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Introduction:

Turkey's rise is real and based on both its economic trajectory (stunning quadrupling of per capita GDP across last decade) and its economic vulnerabilities (resource-dependent, deeply embedded in global production chains), meaning Ankara networks aggressively throughout the surrounding regions because it has to.  

In many ways, far more than responsibility-averse China and alliance-averse India, Turkey is the true US-like (as in, turn of 20th century) rising power of this globalization era, meaning the natural bridge-builder and peace-maker that sticks its nose nearly everywhere - often to welcoming effect.  In many ways, Turkey outperforms the foreign policies of both the EU and the US in the Middle East and Central Asia, while - in effect - extending their interests.  

Despite this truth, both Europe and the US fret that Turkey's more independently-minded foreign policy of the past years means it is "turning away from the West." It's not.  If anything, Turkey is simply turning toward everybody else on the West's behalf. Turkey's sudden emergence as diplomatic whirlwind under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is on par with China's sudden reappearance on the global stage with Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

Some of the Scenarios proposed and their summaries:

1. Continued Rise and "Shift back Westward" - This scenario, written by Proffessor Robert Edwin Kelly (Author of the excellent Asian Security Blog, where he also elaborated on this scenario), argues that "Turkey's rise will continue as it shifts away from Iran, strengthening relations with US, Europe and Israel." Read More at Professor Kelly's blog to get a deeper insight.
2. Continued Rise and "Shift Eastward" - Led by Mark Safranski of the Zenpundit Blog, this strategy argues that "Turkey's rise continues, as it develops friendlier ties with anti-Western local regimes (e.g., Syria, Iran), as well as Eastern powers (India, China) that are moving toward closer relations with the Persian Gulf energy powers". Along with contributors Thomas Barnett, Thomas Wade and Daniel Florian, the various aspects of the scenario were mapped - its outline, regional implications, global implications, opportunities, risks and probability.
3. Turkey's Rise Slows - Suggested by Milena Rodban of the Cosmpoloitan Intellectual, this strategy's summary argues: "Vulnerable to the consequences of the political turmoil in the region, Turkey's rise is likely to slow in the near term. The future of Turkey's rise will be determined by how well its government and central bank can weather the storm of lost FDI, high oil prices, and the specter of inflation".
4. Last Middle East Power Standing - An interesting strategy that exemplified the "go wild" nature of such drills, which serve as important brainstorming technique. This strategy's summary describes "An R&D long shot (in this scenario, Polywell fusion) pays off and the ME region hits the end of the oil age like a DUI hits the median. Turkey picks up the pieces as the biggest regional power that has a diversified society capable of thriving in the new environment"

Join Wikistrat

Calling on Top Military Academies, Graduate Schools and Think Tanks

Please read below PR calling on members at Military Academies and Think Tanks as well as Graduate Students in top schools to participate at 2011 Grand Strategy Competition

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For Immediate Release

Media Contact:                                                                               

Milena Rodban    Phone: 410-929-5262   Email: milena@wikistrat.com           

WIKISTRAT ISSUES A CHALLENGE: “MAP A FUTURE WORTH CREATING”

--INTERNATIONAL GRAND STRATEGY COMPETITION DRAWS TEAMS FROM LEADING UNIVERSITIES--

(Washington, D.C. - March 21, 2011) Against the backdrop of dramatic political developments around the world, Wikistrat’s International Grand Strategy Competition, the first wiki based competition of its kind, is drawing intense interest from teams at leading universities and think tanks eager to demonstrate their analytical prowess by mapping the future.   

Wikistrat, which is already leading a revolution in geopolitical analysis and forecasting, is now applying its interactive model toward a revolution in grand strategic planning. Wikistrat currently provides businesses with the ability to interact with its innovative system to create scenarios, pathways and shocks-to-the-system, and explore them alongside the world's leading strategic thinkers. Now the firm is issuing a challenge to graduate students and emerging experts in the foreign affairs field who are anxious to put their skills and knowledge to the test to analyze and forecast highly relevant issues including the 2.0 revolutions, global economic rebalancing, oil interdependency, nuclear proliferation, and the implications of China's rise.

Managed by former Pentagon strategist and Wikistrat Chief Analyst Dr. Thomas Barnett, the month long competition, starting June 1^st_, will provide participants with the opportunity to test their skills with global counterparts and network within the community of experts while competing for a $10,000 prize.  According to Dr. Barnett, however, the benefits of participation far outweigh the prize: “Wikistrat and I are very excited to pool this much young talent in the same cyberspace. You are going to experience what the educational system won’t provide you and what your career will do its best to deny you – the consistent opportunity to think systematically about the future by thinking synergistically across a wide number of domains.  Given globalization’s fast pace of expansion and exponential complexity, these skills will be in higher demand than ever in the years and decades ahead.”

Participants will test their skills, network with other emerging experts in a collaborative environment and showcase their analytical talents before an audience of corporate observers seeking to recruit up and coming talent. These unique opportunities are attracting accomplished students like Zach Miller and Elizabeth Betterbed, who previously graduated first in their class at Williams College and West Point, respectively. Both are excited to represent Oxford University during the competition.  “Given the complex strategic challenges that exist in the world today, the Wikistrat Grand Strategy Competition represents a unique opportunity to apply our academic work to practical situations with potentially important, real-world implications,” says Miller, who will lead the Oxford team.

“As self-aggrandizing as it sounds, we are coming together to map a future worth creating by developing our own myths about its best and worst unfolding pathways.  Like most things in life, you only get what you give. So bring it all,” advises Dr. Barnett.

The challenge has been issued and dozens of teams from leading universities and think tanks are ready to show the world what they can do. Will you join them? Register your team and find out more at http://www.wikistrat.com/competition.

ABOUT WIKISTRAT

Wikistrat stands at the interface between business and geopolitics. Wikistrat’s geopolitical analysis subscription service tracks the advance of globalization and enables clients to access a unique strategic model, analytical methodology and interactive client delivery services. Interacting with the Wikistrat system allows subscribers to create own scenarios, pathways and shocks-to-the-system, and explore them alongside the world’s leading strategic thinkers.

Media Contact:                                                                                

Milena Rodban                                                                                                                    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Phone: 410-929-5262

Email: milena@wikistrat.com                      

WIKISTRAT ISSUES A CHALLENGE: “MAP A FUTURE WORTH CREATING”

--INTERNATIONAL GRAND STRATEGY COMPETITION DRAWS TEAMS FROM LEADING UNIVERSITIES--

(Washington, D.C. - March 21, 2011) Against the backdrop of dramatic political developments around the world, Wikistrat’s International Grand Strategy Competition, the first wiki based competition of its kind, is drawing intense interest from teams at leading universities and think tanks eager to demonstrate their analytical prowess by mapping the future.   

                Wikistrat, which is already leading a revolution in geopolitical analysis and forecasting, is now applying its interactive model toward a revolution in grand strategic planning. Wikistrat currently provides businesses with the ability to interact with its innovative system to create scenarios, pathways and shocks-to-the-system, and explore them alongside the world's leading strategic thinkers. Now the firm is issuing a challenge to graduate students and emerging experts in the foreign affairs field who are anxious to put their skills and knowledge to the test to analyze and forecast highly relevant issues including the 2.0 revolutions, global economic rebalancing, oil interdependency, nuclear proliferation, and the implications of China's rise.  

Managed by former Pentagon strategist and Wikistrat Chief Analyst Dr. Thomas Barnett, the month long competition, starting June 1^st_, will provide participants with the opportunity to test their skills with global counterparts and network within the community of experts while competing for a $10,000 prize.  According to Dr. Barnett, however, the benefits of participation far outweigh the prize: “Wikistrat and I are very excited to pool this much young talent in the same cyberspace. You are going to experience what the educational system won’t provide you and what your career will do its best to deny you – the consistent opportunity to think systematically about the future by thinking synergistically across a wide number of domains.  Given globalization’s fast pace of expansion and exponential complexity, these skills will be in higher demand than ever in the years and decades ahead.”

Participants will test their skills, network with other emerging experts in a collaborative environment and showcase their analytical talents before an audience of corporate observers seeking to recruit up and coming talent. These unique opportunities are attracting accomplished students like Zach Miller and Elizabeth Betterbed, who previously graduated first in their class at Williams College and West Point, respectively. Both are excited to represent Oxford University during the competition.  “Given the complex strategic challenges that exist in the world today, the Wikistrat Grand Strategy Competition represents a unique opportunity to apply our academic work to practical situations with potentially important, real-world implications,” says Miller, who will lead the Oxford team.

 “As self-aggrandizing as it sounds, we are coming together to map a future worth creating by developing our own myths about its best and worst unfolding pathways.  Like most things in life, you only get what you give.  So bring it all,” advises Dr. Barnett.

The challenge has been issued and dozens of teams from leading universities and think tanks are ready to show the world what they can do. Will you join them? Register your team and find out more at http://www.wikistrat.com/competition.

ABOUT WIKISTRAT

Wikistrat stands at the interface between business and geopolitics. Wikistrat’s geopolitical analysis subscription service tracks the advance of globalization and enables clients to access a unique strategic model, analytical methodology and interactive client delivery services. Interacting with the Wikistrat system allows subscribers to create own scenarios, pathways and shocks-to-the-system, and explore them alongside the world’s leading strategic thinkers.

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CoreGap 11.08 released - Obama’s “Chinese menu” of Past Presidential Doctrines

Wikistrat has released edition 11.08 of the CoreGap Bulletin.

This CoreGap edition features, among others:

• Obama’s “Chinese menu” of Past Presidential Doctrines
• Disaster in Japan and instability in Gulf likely alter global energy landscape
• China steps on growth brake, hunkers down on potential domestic unrest
• Mexico, at wit’s end over blood-soaked drug war, pushes US for relief
• Egypt’s political change agenda proceeds, but tougher economic reform awaits

The entire bulletin is available for subscribers. Over the upcoming week we will release analysis from the bulletin to our Geopolitical Analysis section of the Wikistrat website, first being "Terra Incognita: Obama’s “Chinese menu” of Past Presidential Doctrines"

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?).  Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

It is estimated that 30 percent of the current US federal deficit was set in motion by the Bush administration and another 30 percent by Obama trying to correct those mistakes.  But the biggest problem remains the 40 percent triggered by entitlements growth – the simple aging of America.  With China now applying the brakes, Japan suddenly and sensationally damaged by mega-disaster, Europe still processing sovereign bankruptcies, and Arab unrest pushing up the price of oil, there appears no obvious “cavalry” riding to the global economy’s rescue.  It would seem that America’s “circle the wagons” mentality has gone global, as every beleaguered leadership now looks out for itself.

Read the full piece here

More about Wikistrat's Subscription can be found here

To say that President Barack Obama’s foreign policy plate is full right now is a vast understatement, and it couldn’t come at a worse time for a leader who needs to revive his own economy before trying to resuscitate others (e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, South Sudan, Ivory Coast – eventually Libya?). Faced with the reality that America’s huge debt overhang condemns it to sub-par growth for many years, Washington enters a lengthy period of “intervention fatigue” that – like everything else, according to the Democrats – can still be blamed on George W. Bush.

Referenced from Wikistrat: http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/obamas-chinese-menu-of-past-presidential-doctrines/#ixzz1Gs4QTx6a

Grand Strategy Competition - Wikistrat

Wikistrat is gearing up for an exciting International Grand Strategy Competition.

Select teams representing leading academic institutions from around the world are invited to participate in the first ever wiki-based grand strategy competition. Managed by Dr. Thomas PM Barnett, this competition will provide participants with the opportunity to test their skills with global counterparts and network within that community. Participants can demonstrate their capacity for strategic thought to agencies, institutions and firms seeking to recruit up-and-coming analytic talent.

We are currently reviewing applications by groups representing top Universities and Think Tanks worldwide. There are still open spots available for this exciting event.

To nominate a team, or to see if you institute has been invited, contact us HERE.

Participation is free, and winner team will get a $10,000 prize.

Some of the issues we will cover in the Competition include (Download the full PDF OUTLINE:

1. Global Energy Security

2. Global Economic “Rebalancing” Process

3. Salafi Jihadist Terrorism 

4. Inevitable Sino-American Special Relationship

5. Southwest Asia Nuclear Proliferation

Some of the Scenarios explored will include:

1. Major Biological Terror Attack

2. “2.0 Revolutions” in Arab World

3. + Additional Surprise Shocks

Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor (#3)

We're excited to announce the launch of Wikistrat's Middle East Monitor for February 2011, which can be viewed in entirety by clicking here.

Summary

The Mid­dle East and North Africa is again a pro­foundly dif­fer­ent place than it was in De­cem­ber 2010 or even in Jan­u­ary 2011. The biggest de­vel­op­ment is the down­fall of Egypt­ian Pres­i­dent Hosni Mubarak as a re­sult of the up­ris­ing in Tunisia that brought down Pres­i­dent Ben Ali. As a pop­u­la­tion with over 80 mil­lion peo­ple and a major strate­gic power, the suc­cess of the up­ris­ing ex­po­nen­tially in­creases the mo­men­tum of pro­test­ers in the re­gion that has ex­isted since Tunisia’s Jas­mine Rev­o­lu­tion.

Major un­rest has struck al­most every sin­gle coun­try in the Mid­dle East and it has spread as far as China, Al­ba­nia, Be­larus and Venezuela. The gov­ern­ments in the re­gion are now en­gaged in a del­i­cate bal­anc­ing act of of­fer­ing major con­ces­sions while at times or­der­ing se­cu­rity forces to use vi­o­lence to dis­perse es­ca­lat­ing demon­stra­tions. Every gov­ern­ment is closely watch­ing de­vel­op­ments in the en­tire re­gion to de­ter­mine their own course of ac­tion. Coun­tries like Bahrain and Yemen have of­fered major con­ces­sions, in­clud­ing eco­nomic aid pack­ages and more po­lit­i­cal free­dom, while the Libyan gov­ern­ment has cho­sen to use an in­cred­i­ble amount of vi­o­lence. The fate of these gov­ern­ments will de­ter­mine what the lead­ers in the re­gion de­cide are the best ways to stay in power.

Wikistrat Bottom Lines

Opportunities

• The overall demand for liberalization can open the door to Foreign Direct Investment as economic openness is demanded and governments resort to economic reforms to reduce internal stresses.

• The demand for political liberalization can permit a better flow of information and ideas, allowing for a proliferation of voices and opinions.

• Western support for those demanding reforms can decrease hostility, particularly towards the U.S., over the perception that it is not committed to human rights and has imperialistic motivations.

Risks

• Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood could come to power because of the desire for a greater role for Islam in public life, their superior organization and in some cases, a desire for some elements of governance based on Sharia law.

• Anarchy could result as protesters clash with security forces. This can lead to instability that negatively affects world markets and potentially result in the damaging of oil facilities.

• The increased power of the populations could result in foreign policies more hostile to the West and more favorable to Iran.

Dependencies

• The appeal of the Islamist parties and political figures. It is possible that the population will not feel the Islamist candidates are qualified to improve the economy or carry out reform or may simply question their agenda once campaigning is underway.

• The loyalty of the security forces. This is an important factor as they are the ones given the responsibility to ensure the survival of the governments, but they may defect if ordered to become violent.

• The unity of the opposition. Division can weaken the opposition and strengthen the government and lead to dysfunction during a power vacuum.

 Click here to download the summary as a PDF document. Subscribers can download this entire edition in PDF or view on our interactive wiki.