"Over the long-term, the current structure of the regime is not sustainable. It will need massive reforms to improve the economy and to give representation to its restive minorities and the majority Sunni population. The government’s best prospect is for a flow of investment from the West or neighbors in the region to bring in enough revenue to alleviate domestic pressure. The uprisings in the region are emboldening the domestic opposition and will quicken the trend towards liberalization. The regime will have to play a delicate balancing act of incremental liberalization while preserving its ability to prevent the flow of information and attempts to organize by its opponents. The regime appears to have calculated that the widespread use of violence is an acceptable and credible strategy to achieve its stabilization." From Wikistrat's "Syrian Regime Stability" Simulation
Wikistrat is launching yet another simulation in a series of collaborative simulations. Following the "Turkey's Rise" and "Death of Kim Jong Il" simulations, we are now exploring the various scenarios, impacts and policy options given the sensitive situation in Syria.
Some of the questions we ask ourselves in this interactive experience are:
- How will the protests expected unfold? What would be the Tipping Point?
- What would be the implications of a failure to remove Assad from office?
- How can this affect the Radical Axis (Iran, North Korea) vs. the Moderate Axis?
- What does instability in Syria mean for Israel?
- How should the US respond to the current events in Syria?
- Should the Arab World stand by president Assad, or support the protesters?
If you are a topic expert on Syria and wish to participate, contact us here.
Scenarios Explored:
To begin with, 5 generic scenarios, looking at how the protests may unfold, were mapped and are being developed by the expert community. More scenarios will be added as the simulation grows. Each scenario is examined through its regional and global implications, the risks and opportunities it possesses and its assessed probability. Analysts then shift to checking how the events impact the interests of various powers (US, Israel, Iran, Lebanon and more), and what policy options these actors can adopt to tackle the developments in Syria.
- Assad Survives and Quells Dissent - The Assad regime finds itself in a stronger position after violently crushing the uprising. The most influential activists are silenced through various means and the regime is able to identify its opponents and learn how to combat their strategies as a result of this victory. The opposition is demoralized and fractured and some opt to join the government as a minority voice following minor political reforms. The Muslim Brotherhood decides to officially endorse the Assad regime as an ally in the fight against the West.
- Assad Survives but is Unstable - Assad’s military stays intact and the uprising ultimately is contained and recedes. Visible signs of dissent remain but the opposition is unable to pose an organized, nationwide challenge to the regime. Assad changes his tone to sound more liberal and institutes minor economic and political reforms. The opposition vows to fight on but the West believes that they will not be successful for the foreseeable future absent a dramatic development. The West eliminates support the opposition as a viable policy option.
- Assad Survives Through Iranian Intervention - Iranian forces secure Assad's regime, while strengthening its grip on Syria. A brief civil war breaks out but is quickly ended through the deployment of Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel and terrorists from Hezbollah and Hamas. The IRGC openly operates in Syria and becomes more intimately involved in the operations of the security services and government agencies. A series of agreements making Syria essentially a military base for Iran are signed and the West concludes that luring Syria away from Iran is no longer a viable policy option.
- Regime Change Brings Moderates to Power - Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Moderates. The Assad regime is removed through a popular uprising and/or military coup. The opposition forces declare victory and the secular democratic opposition comes to the forefront of the transitional government. The Muslim Brotherhood performs well in the parliamentary elections but is a minority. The new government vows to bring Syria closer to the West and institute vast reforms.
- Regime Change Brings Muslim Brotherhood to Power - Assad's regime does not survive the uprising, and is replaced by Muslim Brotherhood leading the parliament. A series of defections from Assad’s government, including the military and intelligence services, leads to a civil war similar to the one in Libya. The Assad regime is removed from power and the Muslim Brotherhood declares victory. The Brotherhood and other Islamist parties hold a majority in the new parliament after elections are held and oversee the writing of a new constitution which makes Islam the primary source of legislation. The new government says it will maintain close ties to Iran and will continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah.
