One of the most interesting things we do in Wikistrat is Scenario Planning. Through the use of live collaborative simulations, our analysts and subscribers alike engage in the mapping of scenarios, country interests and policy options on a given issue. We ran such drills on Egypt (The Egypt War Room) and on the "Sudden death of Kim Jong Il".
Our current Simulation is on Turkey, and deals with its political and economic rise in the Middle East, its implications and potential pathways. So far several interesting scenarios were mapped, as well as interests and policy objectives for major regional and global powers affected by Turkey's Rise.
Essentially we ask - Will Turkey's rise continue? Will its relations with the West deteriorate given its "Shift eastward"? And- How should the US, the EU, Israel, Iran and the KSA react?
Below is the introduction to the drill, written by Dr. Barnett, and some of the scenarios written by Wikistrat's subscribers and analysts collaboratively. The simulation is still running, so more to expect. If you wish to participate in this simulation and our upcoming exciting simulations, you can subscribe here.
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Introduction:
Turkey's rise is real and based on both its economic trajectory (stunning quadrupling of per capita GDP across last decade) and its economic vulnerabilities (resource-dependent, deeply embedded in global production chains), meaning Ankara networks aggressively throughout the surrounding regions because it has to.
In many ways, far more than responsibility-averse China and alliance-averse India, Turkey is the true US-like (as in, turn of 20th century) rising power of this globalization era, meaning the natural bridge-builder and peace-maker that sticks its nose nearly everywhere - often to welcoming effect. In many ways, Turkey outperforms the foreign policies of both the EU and the US in the Middle East and Central Asia, while - in effect - extending their interests.
Despite this truth, both Europe and the US fret that Turkey's more independently-minded foreign policy of the past years means it is "turning away from the West." It's not. If anything, Turkey is simply turning toward everybody else on the West's behalf. Turkey's sudden emergence as diplomatic whirlwind under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is on par with China's sudden reappearance on the global stage with Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s/early 1980s.
Some of the Scenarios proposed and their summaries:
- Continued Rise and "Shift back Westward" - This scenario, written by Proffessor Robert Edwin Kelly (Author of the excellent Asian Security Blog, where he also elaborated on this scenario), argues that "Turkey's rise will continue as it shifts away from Iran, strengthening relations with US, Europe and Israel." Read More at Professor Kelly's blog to get a deeper insight.
- Continued Rise and "Shift Eastward" - Led by Mark Safranski of the Zenpundit Blog, this strategy argues that "Turkey's rise continues, as it develops friendlier ties with anti-Western local regimes (e.g., Syria, Iran), as well as Eastern powers (India, China) that are moving toward closer relations with the Persian Gulf energy powers". Along with contributors Thomas Barnett, Thomas Wade and Daniel Florian, the various aspects of the scenario were mapped - its outline, regional implications, global implications, opportunities, risks and probability.
- Turkey's Rise Slows - Suggested by Milena Rodban of the Cosmpoloitan Intellectual, this strategy's summary argues: "Vulnerable to the consequences of the political turmoil in the region, Turkey's rise is likely to slow in the near term. The future of Turkey's rise will be determined by how well its government and central bank can weather the storm of lost FDI, high oil prices, and the specter of inflation".
- Last Middle East Power Standing - An interesting strategy that exemplified the "go wild" nature of such drills, which serve as important brainstorming technique. This strategy's summary describes "An R&D long shot (in this scenario, Polywell fusion) pays off and the ME region hits the end of the oil age like a DUI hits the median. Turkey picks up the pieces as the biggest regional power that has a diversified society capable of thriving in the new environment"
