Mubarak tells PM to negotiate with opposition and military is clear about not taking on protesters directly.
So, from the Wikistrat scenarios, what we imagined and how people voted predicted the layout pretty nicely:
- While the "explosive rip" came and went, strong expectation all along for the "military's tightening grip" (36%)
- Mubarak seems to be planning his step down (38%), with clear military encouragement (34%)
- US leads boldly from behind (44%), but the bandwagoning has begun (36%)
- Frantic firewalling (39%) ensues regionally (Jordan's king sacks cabinet)
- Global opinion is all over the table, with a lot of fear predominating (40% = "Who lost Egypt?"), but shifting to excitement (32% on "we are all Egyptians now!")
- Tipping point appears to be the "pacted transition" (45%) now tried internally, and, if that fails, it will go international (frankly, I would advise the opposition toward the latter out of safety)
- And this is looking more like a Turkey (51%) than Iran (16%) or Pakistan (25%), with maybe a China (9%) down the post-recovery road?
From the perspective of the system, this could not be proceeding better (minimal violence on the street--of course you want just enough, just slow enough for the overall situation not to go crazy, and military shepherding the process responsibly. Egypt does itself proud--so far.
Point of exercise at Wikistrat: when you disaggregate the process and think logically at each point, it's not that hard to imagine how it unfolds with some real accuracy. Also, once presented with the panoply of choices, logically arranged over the unfolding, the wisdom of the crowd works pretty well.
The votes yet again:
Unfolding Pathways
- Military's tightening grip (42%) (39%) (36%) (37%) (36%)
- Movement's steady drip (9%) (13%) (16%) (19%) (18%) (24%)
- Protests' explosive rip (33%) (30%) (22%) (21%) (22%) (21%)
- Mubarak's many slips (16%) (19%) (23%) (24%) (19%)
Regime Response
- Big man steps down (40%) (39%) (41%) (38%) (37%) (36%) (37%)
- (Next military) man up! (26%) (22%) (31%) (32%) (34%)
- Systemic crack down (26%) (32%) (19%) (21%) (20%)
- Oppositions leaders hunted down (9%) (7%) (9%) (8%)
US Response
- "Too preliminary to take a stand" (47%) (51%) (54%) (53%) (54%) (44%)
- "I'm with the Band" (of Netizens) (21%) (17%) (20%) (21%) (20%) (36%)
- "Let me be the first to shake your hand!" (24%) (23%) (22%) (21%) (17%)
- Stand by your man! (9%) (7%) (5%) (4%) (3%)
Regional Responses
- Frantic firewalling (35%) (34%) (39%) (36%) (38%) (39%)
- Dominoes keep falling (21%) (22%) (23%) (23%) (22%) (26%) (25%)
- Head-in-sand stalling (23%) (24%) (25%) (23%) (26%) (21%) (22%)
- Tehran comes calling (21%) (20%) (19%) (16%) (15%) (14%)
Global Responses
- "Who lost Egypt?" (42%) (43%) (42%) (39%) (40%)
- "We are all Egyptians now!" (28%) (26%) (28%) (29%) (30%) (32%)
- "Let my people go!" (28%) (26%) (25%) (28%) (26%)
- "Boycott Pharaoh's cotton (2%) (6%) (5%) (4%) (3%)
Tipping Points
- Viennese sausage-making (40%) (45%) (46%) (45%)
- That iconic photo of ElBaradei on a tank (19%) (17%) (21%) (22%) (21%) (25%) (26%)
- "Murderers row" press conference (35%) (31%) (26%) (24%) (26%) (21%)
- First UN sanctions against newest "rogue regime" (7%) (9%) (8%) (9%)
Exit Glidepath
- Think Turkey, now (35%) (39%) (43%) (49%) (53%) (52%) (51%)
- Think Pakistan, anytime (23%) (22%) (32%) (27%) (24%) (25%) (26%)
- Think Iran, 1979 (23%) (24%) (12%) (13%) (14%) (15%)
- Think China, 1989 (19%) (15%) (14%) (11%) (10%) (9%)