In Memoriam

Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, United States Navy

Who wondrous things hath done

Dateline: Indy,12 November 2005

Lost a close personal friend tonight, a genuine father figure I will never replace.

Just got the call.

It catches me exhausted, with my life just spiraling out of control.

It triggers a lot of bad feeling, and very strong desires to change a lot of things in my life.

I know it's bad to make decisions like that, and yet I can feel it coming like a runaway train. You get that scared feeling and you want to circle the wagons around your loved ones. Decisions that would have seemed eminently beyond reach suddenly zoom to just within your grasp.

You decide what matters and what does not. Who's in and who's out. What can be continued and what must end.

Things will change and things have changed. I feel screwed over by fate. That's normal when you lose someone close. It just seems unfair, even as you know that fair's got nothing to do with it.

But you have to take everything like this--especially the most painful stuff--like a gift, otherwise it will crush you.

And I have no intention of being crushed. I love mine too much. Everything else can be torched.

I'm glad we got to mass tonight. I held mine close. I prayed. I sang loudly an old hymn that I really love, and know by heart.

Now thank we all our God,

With heart and hands and voices,

Who wondrous things hath done,

In whom his world rejoices,

Who from our mothersí arms †††††††

Hath blessed us on our way

With countless gifts of love,

And still is ours to-day.

†

O, may this bounteous God

Through all our life be near us,

With ever joyful hearts

And blessËd peace to cheer us,

And keep us in his grace,

And guide us when perplexed,

And free us from all ills

In this world and the next.

†

All praise and thanks to God,

The Father, now be given,

The Son, and him who reigns

With them in highest heaven:ó ††††

The One Eternal God,

Whom earth and heaven adore,

For thus it was, is now,

And shall be evermore!

Yes, who wondrous things hath done.

But I will continue to rejoice in him as well.

The end of the crush

Dateline: TED/United flights home from Phoenix through Denver, 11 November 2005

It's been so long since I've slept two nights in my bed at the apartment that I've almost forgotten what memory foam means.

Got it so late last night at this fabulous resort, I could only imagine the landscape as I was whisked to my cabin on a golf car at 1am, there to sign four boxes of books (PNM) for the attendees of the conference (Merrill Lynch hosting). So to bed by 2am and up at 0630.

Weird, but no one at the conference was expecting me to use PowerPoint. I have to remind my speaking agent Jenn that we need to make that clear up front with everyone.

Nice relaxed room. Good sound and screen. I got 60 after breakfast (nice also) and then take Q&A for about 15. Back in my cabin by 0900, work day done (that was weird), so I spend a lot of time on the phone with webmaster and now personal assistant Critt, working travel issues and planning.

Now that I'm done with this spate of travel, the big focus between now and end of year is starting new contract of work for Oak Ridge National Laboratory for parent company Enterra Solutions (first gig is late this month in DC) and working a major Esquire piece for the March issue that will have me engaging in some travel later this month and early next. Gotta be done with the piece before Xmas to make the March issue.

Can't wait to see how much the house has changed since last weekend, but will get in too late to check it out tonight, so that will wait for tomorrow.

But really glad to be going home. When speeches are a big part of your income, you're either traveling or not making money, so I don't mind traveling because that's making money. And you gotta make money if you're going to keep doing this. You need the Merrill Lynchs to, in effect, pay for all the military talks you do for honorariums. No bucks, no Buck Rogers, as Gus Grissom once famously said about the space program.

I definitely fear some long, go-nowhere period, but things naturally slow down for the holidays (I have just 4 gigs between now and end of year: Marines in Quantico, Army in Leavenworth, Navy in DC, and Air National Guard in DC [how very joint of me!]), and I look forward to that.

Still, already got 5 gigs lined up for 2006, and that feels good. Gotta pay for that house.

Last bit: while in Denver switching planes, I stopped by a Hudson bookstore and was glad to be told that BFA had sold out. Perusing the current events section, I came across The Best American Political Writing 2005, edited by Royce Flippin. I got excited to open it up, because I remembered that the February "Mr. President Ö" piece I wrote for Esquire was in it. So I picked up the softback copy and checked it out on the plane home.

Cool to note that Tom Junod's "What if He's Right?" piece on Bush was also in there. I felt it was a spectacular piece and was very happy to have it appear with mine in the same Feb issue. A third Esquire piece included is one by James McManus.

So I counted up the mags represented in the compendium, just to see how it came out. Here are the results:

New Republic, New Yorker: 4 each

Esquire, NYT Magazine, Atlantic Monthly: 3 each

NY Review of Books, New Yorker, Nation, Weekly Standard: 2 each

Time, Vogue, Washington Monthly, GQ, Foreign Affairs, Newsweek: 1 each.

So a pretty good showing by Esquire

Here's the daily catch:

■ Some WSJ wisdom on France

■ Mubarek-the-sequel is going to lose, one way or the other

■ Who exactly is winning in Iraq?

■ Why Rice refuses to engage Iran is just beyond me

■ Convenience and privacy: the usual trade

■ No happy endings just yet in Kashmir

■ Some NYT wisdom on the Gap and Doha

Mubarek-the-sequel is going to lose, one way or the other

■"A Political Rival of Mubarek Loses His Seat in Parliament," by Abeer Allam, New York Times, 11 November 2005, p. A6.

Hosni Mubarek has forced out the second-place finisher in the recent presidential election, strong-arming the parliamentary election in his district as payback for his running.

Mubarek dreams he's gonna shove his son, Gamal, down the throats of people in 2011, the next presidential election. Watch for more shenanigans of this sort between now and then.

My bet is that old man Hosni dies in office and Gamal gets declared his replacement and then runs as incumbent in 2011 just like his old man did this year.

That PM better keep the reform process humming in the economy, because the political scene will be going nowhere but backwards if Mubarek has his way.

Some WSJ wisdom on France

■"French Lessons: How to create a Muslim underclass," editorial, Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2005, p. A10.

■"Burning Down The House In FranceLand," op-ed by Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2005, p. A10.

The French model of economics and social cohesion is coming apart, and certainly being discredited, so sayeth the WSJ editorial board.

And they're right. The French model and approach on trade and security and damn near everything else is pretty much screwed up, representing the worst of the Old Core's tendencies.

Here are some good stats:

Consider the contrast with the U.S. Between 1978 and 2002, the percentage of foreign-born Americans nearly doubled, to 12% from 6.2%. At the same time, the five-year average unemployment rate declined to 5.1% from 7.3%. Among immigrants, median family incomes rose by roughly $10,000 for every 10 years they remained in the country.

So much for immigrants being unassimilable, points out this editorial.

France has 5 million Muslims in a population of only 60 million, and we've got roughly 2 million out of 300 million.

Clearly, we're attracting the better lot of Muslims, and for good reason, there's serious upward mobility here.

Two-thirds of the 2 million Muslims living in America are immigrants. Roughly six out of ten have college degrees and one in three sport annual incomes above $75k. They marry out of their culture at a rate of one-in-five, which is high everywhere in the world except America, where it's the norm.

The WSJ is dead on: this is not an immigrant problem or a Muslim problem but an underclass problem.

Hechinger, who's serious conservative but also scary smart, makes an even bolder point: France's take on their internal problems with immigrants and economics is the same as their approach to global issues: they bury their heads in the sand and just say Non! to everything.

The French lead in nothing except obstructionism, whether it's Turkey getting into the EU, taking down Saddam, or derailing the Doha Round.

There is no future for France except decay and isolation. We are watching a civilization self-destruct in its old age.

You want me to name a country most likely to leave the Core? France already has.

Why Rice refuses to engage Iran is just beyond me

■"Rice Denies U.S. Is Leading Nuclear Talks With Tehran: Supporting a demand on Iran, but not the origin of the demand," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 2005, p. A3.

I don't get this stance any more than the queer logic of separate "traffic lanes" in our relationship with China. Is Iran supporting the insurgency or not? Is Iran becoming a player in Iraq because of the emergence of the Shiia majority or not? Does Iran support Hamas and Hezbollah or not?

Does Iran matter to our attempts to change things in the Middle East or not?

If the answer is yes to these questions, then why are we not talking directly to them? Especially now given the obvious fissures within their political system?

Rice is treading water.

Who exactly is winning in Iraq?

■"Iraq-Based Jihad Appears To Seek Broader Horizons: A Qaeda splinter group overshadows its forebear," by Douglas Jehl, New York Times, 11 November 2005, pulled from web.

■"Mideast violence generates backlash against al-Qaeda," editorial, USA Today, 11 November 2005, p. 14A.

■"His Image Tarnished, Bush Seeks to Restore Credibility," by Richard W. Stevenson and David S. McCloud, New York Times, 11 November 2005, p. A19.

We are told that Al Qaeda, in the form of Abu Musab al Zarqawi's group in Iraq, hopes to broaden the fight from Iraq to neighboring states. We are also told that Al Qaeda's leadership fears targeting of Muslims.

Whenever Al Qaeda attacks the "near enemies" in places like Saudi Arabia and now Jordan, the public opinion there turns harshly against them.

So is Al Qaeda successfully expanding the war or are we just watching the same spray-the-cockroaches-in-one-apartment-and-watch-them-try-to-run-to-the-neighboring-ones phenomenon that's defined the entire history of the organization (and yes, we're stupid enough to buy their propaganda that it's been one long string of 'victories" each time they flee to a new state to join whatever fight's already in progress or seek sanctuary from some government they can bribe)?

I'm with McCain. Don't draw down prematurely Focus on sealing off Iraq from foreign fighters, who account for only about 10% of the action. Ramp up the Iraqi security forces and create the natural division of labor: we keep 'em out and you kill them. Meanwhile, push the political process and suck in as many Sunni parties and their followers as possible. Strangle this thing three ways from Sunday and don't fall prey to Al Qaeda's bullshit propaganda anymore.

Let them "expand" to neighboring states. Let them see what awaits them there in both government responses and public rejection of their violent strategies.

Al Qaeda is no closer to any Muslim-unifying grand state than they've ever been. In fact, that goal grows all the more fantastic with each day.

No happy endings just yet in Kashmir

■"Quake Victims Still Kept Apart in Kashmir," by David Rohde and Hari Kumar, New York Times, 11 November 2005, pulled from web.

Unlike in Aceh Indonesia, no real improvement between the Indians and Pakistanis over Kashmir after the temblor. Both sides still holding to a host of idiotic tension-inducing practices on the border, and of course there's the usual blame game on the disaster relief.

Sad for India, because I expect more. Pakistan can't control the south, nor the northwest. I don't expect it to grow up any time soon, but India Ö

And all this after India's brilliant response to the tsunamis.

Convenience and privacy: the usual trade

■"Using Cellphone Signals to Limit Gridlock's Clutter," by Laura M. Holson, New York Times, 11 November 2005, p. C1.

You knew this was coming: government tracking cellphone calls in cars in order to track traffic. Brilliant, really, but scary to some.

But expect to see more of this, across a range of issues both profound and mundane.

Me, I worry not. It's the same old, same old trade on convenience/security versus privacy. I'll take the convenience and security.

Some NYT wisdom on the Gap and Doha

■"Memo to Poor Countries: Stand Fast," editorial, New York Times, 11 November 2005, p. A24.

Brazil told the EU, says this editorial, that if they don't budge on the ag subsidies, then the Doha Round will never happen.

This the right stand and eventually the EU will crack, or we'll just have to invade France and engage in some regime change.

As the editorial points out, GATT and the successor WTO have lowered tariffs on basically everything except ag. The Old Core subsidizes its farm community to the tune of about $1B a day. This has got to stop. It's immoral. It's basically slow-motion murder.

Bush has tried to bring the subsidies down, and gets betrayed by his own party on this score. Rob Portman, current trade rep, has an offer on the table of a 60% cut for the U.S. if the Europeans cut their higher rates by 85%, and France basically said no.

Chirac is a frickin' disaster for France and the world. Time for him to go. Thank God his term is up.

Otherwise Ö

Author gives keynote speech for CD&E 2005

News From USJFCOM: Author gives keynote speech for CD&E 2005 Snip follows:

(BERLIN - Nov. 9, 2005) -- The author of The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, gave the opening keynote speech for the second day of the NATO/U.S. Joint Forces Command-sponsored Concept Development & Experimentation Conference 2005 here today.

Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, a contributing editor for Esquire magazine, argues the United States, with the assistance of current and future alliances, can create a stabilised global future by focusing on economic ties and connectivity.

Barnett, while speaking mostly from a U.S. perspective, also offered his insight into future NATO alliance security issues.

Read the full text. . .

Getting in touch with my inner German

Dateline: Lufthansa/SAS flights "home" from Berlin via Copenhagen to Chicago to as close as Culver Academy, Indiana, 9 November 2005

Germany is like Disney World for people from Wisconsin, possibly the most German state in our country. Their entire cuisine revolves around drinking beer and eating meet, and diversity is how many ways they can serve potato.

They had me at bratwurst.

My time in "Bare-Lynn" (accent on the first syllable) was awfully cool.

Got to the Berlin Hilton around 9am. Some time online and then off to a fascinating lunch with a German general and two American flags.

Then the serious treat: a special tour of the city, with a young German soldier as my personal guide, armed with a van and a driver.

We hit Checkpoint Charlie, check out various places where The Wall (Mauer) once stood (marked throughout the city by a line of two stones, not unlike the Freedom Trail in Boston, strangely enough), then to the famous East German TV Tower (the "tooth pick"), 12th tallest structure in the world (and yes, we went up), then the amazing Holocaust Memorial site (including the great underground museum and research facility), then the Brandenburg Gate, then the Riechstag (we went up on the roof and inside the amazing glass dome on top), then the winged victory statue (didn't go up that), and then to the famous KaDeWe department store ("store of the west"), where I score Stieffs galore and some beautiful porcelein. Started at 2pm and back in my hotel room by 6:30.

Give me the VIP tour every time.

Last night was fabulous reception/party for all these NATO officers and defense officials (this was a concept development and experimentation conference, which is just about perfect for me) in the Aquarium of the Berlin Zoo (really gorgeous collection) and both the booze and the buffet were to die for.

This morning I breakfast with a couple of American flags (the same two from the previous lunch) and then I address the assembled crowd of . . . maybe . . . 4-500 officers and officials in a nice big hotel conference room. Great sound, great stage (I wear clip-on), great screens, crappy sound, and a very receptive and attentive audience. I am good, get a bit tired on the Q&A, and then have to suffer some zealot from the Office of Force Transformation (no less!) who lectures me on how I misrepresent Art Cebrowski's depiction of Network-Centric Operations.

No, no, I must admit that NCO doesn't answer all the mail, and that will definitely make me a turncoat to the hardcore believers. But to get lectured on my fealty to Art is a bit much. Then again, I love disappointing the "believers" of all stripes.

Do a quick media turn with three reporters after that, then pack up and driven to Tegel Airport. Quick prop plane to Copenhagen's beautiful, wood-floored airport (my third time in the last year, to my amazement), and then a long flight to Chicago.

I resist SAS's offer to surf in flight because I'd rather watch "Wedding Crashers" (hilarious like nobody's business and another great turn from Rachel McAdams) and then "Cinderella Man" (you fight back the tears throughout; what a history lesson).

Coolest part of the flight? The nose and under cameras during take-off and landing. You can independently call up these live feeds on your own media station (if you're not gaming, mind you).

Landing at Ohare, I jump into a car that takes me to Culver Academy. Tomorrow a conference of Indiana high school students debate the meaning of "The Pentagon's New Map."

I will miss the bratwurst and sauerkraut, though.

Ah well, Lambeau awaits once more this year.

Here's the daily catch:

■ The only coverage on China that's possibly better than WSJ's

■ The competing analysis on the Paris riots

■ Agreeing to have an agreement is half the battle on the Doha Round

■ Ahmadinejad/Ahmadi-Nejad represents as much opportunity as threat

■ Unnecessary secrecy is the SysAdmin's biggest handicap

■ Why Peyton heals the wounds

■ The dangers of disconnectedness on display

■ Why Saddam's trial in Iraq is a mistake

■ Yes, the Balkan interventions did lead to connectivity

The only coverage on China that's possibly better than WSJ's

■"Search is on for a different pattern of growth," by Richard McGregor, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 1 (Special Report China).

■"Failure to reform threatens to derail future growth: Unlike more developed economies, China relies almost exclusively on the banks to oil the wheels of its economy," by Francesco Guerrera, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 4 (Special Report China).

■"A potential threat to stability? The government has created popular expectations without fulfilling them," by Mure Dickie, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 3 (Special Report China).

■"Business to be had beyong Beijing," by Andrew Yeh, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 5 (Special Report China).

■"A global power made in China," by Simon London, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. 9.

■"Chinese leaders give less time to CEOs of multinationals," by Richard McGregor, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. A1.

■"FBI helping Chinese police on pirated goods," by Andrew Yeh and Richard McGregor, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. 6.

■"China arms embargo moves off EU agenda," by FT reporters, Financial Times, 9 Novvember 2005, p. 6.

I have got to start reading the Financial Times every day. It's just that good, especially on China. The special report on China on the 8th is absolutely fantastic.

The article on how China seeks to rebalance it's growth trajectory is full of great analysis and tidbits galore of the sort I love to store away:

Alongside the gradual liberalization of the financial system, China's private sector has supplanted state industries as the most important driver of economic growth in the past few years. Privately owned and managed companies generate nearly two-thirds of non-farm GDP, according to a recent OECD report.

The Paris-based organization said the number of state-controlled companies had halved since 1995, from 300,000 to 150,000.

By contrast, local private companies increased output fivefold and foreign enterprises threefold between 1998 and 2003, compared with an increase of just 70 percent in the state sector over the same period.

Even better is this:

Many Chinese economists support a significant revaluation as well, although not on a political timetable dictated by the US. They argue a revaluation would help reduce the capital inflow into China, which is forcing the People's Bank of China to mop up more and more dollars to keep the currency stable.

China is set to have about $1 [trillion] in foreign exchange reserves by mid-2006, a serious waste of financial resources, according to local economists who believe the money would be better spent on improving the health and education systems.

The best route to this? Increase domestic consumption. Since Chinese are expected to pay their own way on a host of things the government used to provide (housing, education, medical), they tend to save a lot. That leaves the new rich. And that's why China's Alan Greenspan, Zhou Xiaochauan, says, "This may be morally questionable, but it is a fact that the purchasing power lies in the high-end group." In an economy that needs to create 20 million new non-farm jobs every year, you better have an economic elite that spends.

Deng Xiaoping, meet Ronald Reagan.

But all those rich people will want some government for their money. They'll want courts that ajudicate, not politicize. They'll want protection for their money. They'll want contracts enforced and property respected.

As the vice president of China's Supreme Court puts it, Xi Xiaoming, says "The status of courts in the life of the people is rising."

What does he mean by that? China's courts handled several hundred thousand cases a year a couple of decades ago. Now those 4,000 courts handle five million a year.

That's what I mean when I say good markets make better governments. It's the rising transaction rate that drives this virtuous circle.

It drives the growth of the insurance market (now third largest in Asia). It drives Chinese legal authorities to work with our FBI to cut down on pirated goods within the economy.

And all that economic potential attracts political suitors.

A senior Pentagon official recently noted, "[French President Jacques] Chirac gave a speech in Shanghai about a year ago where he talked about the necessary rebalancing of the grand triangle among Europe, Asia and America. In other words, the strength of China is good for Europe. I didn't like that too much."

Well buddy, nobody frickin' asked whether you like it or not. My God, what world do these people live in?

Better on China's failure is the work of little minds. Contingency planning is about covering your ass from failure. Strategic planning is about exploiting pathways of success.

We need to get strategic on China, because everyone else is but us, and it's starting to show.

The competing analysis on the Paris riots

■"Why France is burning with anger," comment by Dominique Moisi, Financial Times, 98 November 2005, p. 13.

■"Why Singapore hums as riots sweep France," by Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 2.

■"A revolt of youth without religious motivation," by Roula Khalaf and Martin Arnold, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. 2.

■"Strife adds to familiar concern: Economic impressions," by Dan Bilefsky, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 6.

It ain't about religion, but about economic connectivity. The 'new proletariat' can't turn to Marxism, because that's too discredited. So when you're radicalized today, the one package that's both anti-capitalist and anti-Western is jihadist Islam.

No, it's not about religion and, quite frankly, it never is. It's about identity in a world where you're defined by your job.

Singapore works because Singaporeans work. Lee Kuan Yew's genius isn't just his clever use of affirmative action programs, its his ability to make Singapore an FDI magnet. The place has the highest inflows and outflows of foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP in the world, because it's the most trusted government on trade and investment in the world, as captured in Economist polls of corporate CEOs.

So please, no clash of civilizations.

Not yet, at least. But expect Islamist parties to tap into that economic unrest and anger. If they represent that pain effectively, we'll see economic and political connectivity arise. France will do this against it's will, but it will do it to protect the country's own connectivity to the global economy.

Agreeing to have an agreement is half the battle on the Doha Round

■"New aim of trade talks: lowering expectations; Far apart on grand plan, negotiators may put off the most divisive issues," by Scott Miller and Juliane von Reppert-Bismarck, Wall Street Journal Europe, 9 November 2005, p. 1.

■"EU 'will not open farm markets further,'" by Frances Williams and Krishna Guha, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 7.

■"The Boys in Brazil," editorial, Wall Street Journal Europe, 9 November 2005, p. 15.

■"Outsourcing gets closer to home with CAFTA: Trade deal creates 'nearsourcing,'" by Danna Harman, USA Today, 9 November 2005, p. 6A.

Yes, the WTO will not make the Doha Round end on time. Frankly, it's never finished a round on time, but finish it the negotiators do, but connectivity drives the code. Doha is the "most far-reaching and complex trade round ever undertaken."

Yes, players on all sides want assurances that what they give up will be balanced by what they gain, and that fear is as pronounced in Europe as it is in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The leaders is this process will surprise us, because it will be New Core players like India, China and Brazil that will drive this process as much or more than the established Old Core types in Europe, America and Japan. Guys like Brazil's Lula de Silva will prove to be the most practical of leftists, not unlike a Clinton. These guys know the real fear of poverty, and the real power of hope.

And so the deal will get done, and on that basis we'll see renewed movement on efforts within the Western Hemisphere.

It'll happen in the Western Hemisphere because connectivity needs code, and code is what gets you foreign direct investment, the glue that holds the global economy together.

CAFTA begins and Caribbean states now tout themselves as the "new Asia," or the outsourcing target that's close enough to keep an eye on.

And it's working. The region pulls in $2 billion in foreign investments last year, up dramatically about three-fold from before the free trade area was put into effect.

Proximity counts. Same time zones. Just 3-4 hours away by plane. They call it "nearsourcing." And then there's all that bilingual population.

Yes, yes, press #2 for nearsourcing.

Ahmadinejad/Ahmadi-Nejad represents as much opportunity as threat

■"Coping with the rising cost of marriage, Iranian-style," by Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 4.

■"Second coming for imam is first concern for Iranian president," by Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. 8.

■"Channeling history in Iran," editorial, USA Today, 9 November 2005, p. 9A.

Admnadinejad (let's stay with the NYT spelling for now) is a scary dude. His belief in the Shiite version of something analogous to the Second Coming in Christianity puts him in the same category as the End Times crowd here in the U.S.

Fine to believe, yes, but when you start drawing up city plans (in Tehran) for the 12th imam's appearance (a religious icon from the 12th century) and you happen to be the duly elected mayor, well Ö that's something altogether different.

But Ahmandinejad's also got his practical side, creating a $1.3 billion dollar fund, upon assuming the presidency, to help marriage couples throughout Iran deal with the custom of dowries.

On that subject, listen to this young Iranian male and tell me they're so different:

"If you go as a suitor and the girl was born in [1981] the family may ask for 1,360 gold coins [corresponding to the Iranian calendar year 1360]," laughs Mostafa, a 23-year-old man. "And that's not to mention the car and the house they also want. I'm a student and don't know if I can find a job."

Think this guy's waiting on the Second Coming?

As one former vice president and cleric puts it, "Mr. Ahmadi-Nejad's project must fail. He is caught in the paradox of those who understand religious mystery in a literal way. Of course, we must pray for the return of the imam, but [in government] we must also tackle inflation and unemployment."

Ahmadinejad's got plenty of Iranian government officials worried. "In foreign policy, officials worry an emphasis on the 12th Imam not only puzzles Europe and Russia while Iran tries to revive talks over its nuclear programme but alienates Sunni, a majority in the Muslim world, who do not share the Shia view of the imam's return."

USA Today likes to describe Ahmadinejad as the return of Ayatollah Khomeini, but as the FT piece points out, Khomeini drew a firm line on the End Times types among the Shia, meaning he was never their friend.

But in the end, what does Ahmadinejad's outbursts and scary fundamentalism really do?

Here I think USA Today's editorial board has it correct:

Ever since he made his outrageous remarks calling Israel a "disgraceful blot" that should be "wiped off the map," there has been a global outpouring of censure. The Tehran stock market has plummeted. Iranian commentators have called for moderation. Tehran has offered to return to stalled nuclear talks with the Europeans. Today, Iran's parliament is due to vote on a new oil ministeróan Ahmadinejad crony with little experience [Ouch! Who does that sound like?] Opponents are promising a fight.

The paper's take? "In an unintended way, the slight, bearded former major of Tehran might yet re-open a needed debate in Iran about its future."

Now is the time to strike preemptively, I say, with a diplomatic offer the mullahs cannot refuse.

This future is ours for the taking.

Unnecessary secrecy is the SysAdmin's biggest handicap

■"Pentagon tightening interrogation rules: 'Physical or mental torture' is barred," by Eric Schmitt and Tim Golden, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 7.

■"Secret military spending gets little oversight: Firm's fall, links to lawmakers shed light on how system works," by Matt Kelley and Jim Drinkard, USA Today, 9 November 2005, p. 1A.

■"Official lets slip U.S. spy budget: Conference hears total is $44 billion," by Scott Shane, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 7.

Gordon England, Deputy Secretary of Defense, signs out the 8-page directive that apparently Rumsfeld couldn't bring himself to sign. A guy that smart, that far in life, should be able to admit when he made a terrible mistake.

So, finally, the Abu Ghraib pictures do what they were meant to do: force some new rules.

But more than rules--transparency.

The U.S. military, and the defense community in general, needs more transparency. It needs to come back to society, which it serves.

In becoming more connected, we'll field a better force, and we'll do even more good around this world than we've done in the past.

Why Peyton heals the wounds

■"Colts finally conquer their nemesis," by Judy Battista, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 21.

Peyton is the smartest QB ever to play the game. In the complex world that is NFL offense of this era, the man is the only guy out there who calls his own game from start to finish.

Plus, he audiblizes about 80% of the time. This is absolutely unreal.

Plus he's about as stand-up and good as they come. Tennessee still loves him. Indiana worships the man. The charity work, the way he carries himself. He does this all while still a young man.

And he finally beat those f'ing Patriots.

I had to live through the last years of the Gibbs era in DC and hated it. The smugness of that fan base, I thought, could never be surpassed, until I had to live in New England during the Pats' recent magnificent run (yes, three in four years is good, but 5 in 7 would really be impressive . . . oh, but that would be my Packers in 61, 62, 65, 66, and 67).

I'm definitely part of the ABP crowd, as in, "anybody but the Patriots" this year. I really hope Peyton and Tony Dungy (another very fine man) pull it off this year. This guy should not go to Canton, along with my Brett, without a Super Bowl ring.

And he's got to get it before the younger bro' does.

Whatever you say about Archie, that man knows how to raise sons like nobody's business.

Not leaving the Packers, mind you. If you're only a fan when it's good, then you're not a fan. But there is room in my heart for the Colts. Okay to be bi- when the AFC is an old NFL team.

Not really cheating.

The dangers of disconnectedness on display

■"Eradicated, but polio returns to the U.S.: 5 Amish children rattle health world," by Gardiner Harris, International Herald Tribune, 9 November 2005, p. 2.

Polio was eradicated in America because connectivity requires code: all these people living together in an interdependent world got innoculated.

How does it come back? The disconnected living among us: the Amish. We allow this disconnectedness because we respect religion.

But, as always, disconnectedness comes with danger.

Health officials say it's only a matter of time before somebody's crippled.

But the danger doesn't stop there. There's something wrong with the immune system of the 8-year-old girl at the center of the outbreak. Even with a vaccination she couldn't resist the disease. In a better, more connected life, she's not exposed to this danger.

Now, she's got the potential of being a Typhoid Mary of sorts.

This ain't about faith. It's about locating your responsibility to the world around you.

The microcosm that reveals Ö

Why Saddam's trial in Iraq is a mistake

■"Lawyer for Saddam official killed: 2nd defense attorney slain before trial," by Rick Jervis, USA Today, 9 November 2005, p. 1A.

It's not just the assassinations of the legal personnel involved. It's that this entire trial should be about building case law for the A-to-Z rule set for processing politically bankrupt states.

It's not about making Iraqis feel good or bad anymore, or getting brave people killed. It's about making the world a better place.

Saddam should be on trial in the ICC. Doesn't matter the hassle. Doesn't matter what bad things might be exposed about our intervention or occupation.

You want to use the Leviathan, you have to submit to the global rule set. We set that process in motion, getting a lot of authorship in the process (meaning, getting our way), or that process is imposed on us, and we won't like the outcome.