Who exactly is winning in Iraq?

■"Iraq-Based Jihad Appears To Seek Broader Horizons: A Qaeda splinter group overshadows its forebear," by Douglas Jehl, New York Times, 11 November 2005, pulled from web.

■"Mideast violence generates backlash against al-Qaeda," editorial, USA Today, 11 November 2005, p. 14A.

■"His Image Tarnished, Bush Seeks to Restore Credibility," by Richard W. Stevenson and David S. McCloud, New York Times, 11 November 2005, p. A19.

We are told that Al Qaeda, in the form of Abu Musab al Zarqawi's group in Iraq, hopes to broaden the fight from Iraq to neighboring states. We are also told that Al Qaeda's leadership fears targeting of Muslims.

Whenever Al Qaeda attacks the "near enemies" in places like Saudi Arabia and now Jordan, the public opinion there turns harshly against them.

So is Al Qaeda successfully expanding the war or are we just watching the same spray-the-cockroaches-in-one-apartment-and-watch-them-try-to-run-to-the-neighboring-ones phenomenon that's defined the entire history of the organization (and yes, we're stupid enough to buy their propaganda that it's been one long string of 'victories" each time they flee to a new state to join whatever fight's already in progress or seek sanctuary from some government they can bribe)?

I'm with McCain. Don't draw down prematurely Focus on sealing off Iraq from foreign fighters, who account for only about 10% of the action. Ramp up the Iraqi security forces and create the natural division of labor: we keep 'em out and you kill them. Meanwhile, push the political process and suck in as many Sunni parties and their followers as possible. Strangle this thing three ways from Sunday and don't fall prey to Al Qaeda's bullshit propaganda anymore.

Let them "expand" to neighboring states. Let them see what awaits them there in both government responses and public rejection of their violent strategies.

Al Qaeda is no closer to any Muslim-unifying grand state than they've ever been. In fact, that goal grows all the more fantastic with each day.