■"Failed Summit Casts Shadow on Global Trade Talks: In Blow to U.S., Chavez Taps Latin America's Discontent To Fight Opening of Markets," by Matt Moffett and John D. McKinnon, Wall Street Journal, 7 November 2005, p. A1.
■"Push for 'Made In' Tags Grows in EU: Trade Groups Urge Europe To Impose Origin Labeling; Fashion Houses Are Divided," by Alessandra Galloni, Wall Street Journal, 7 November 2005, p. A6.
■"Bush, Replying to Chavez, Urges Latin Americans to Follow U.S.," by Elisabeth Bumiller and Larry Rohter, New York Times, 7 November 2005, p. A6.
■"Trade Officials to Hold Talks To Save a Global Agreement: Difference over agricultural issues have stalled a deal," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 7 November 2005, p. C9.
■"U.S., EU Push Plan to Trade Aid for Open Markets," by Greg Hitt, Wall Street Journal, 5-6 November 2005, p. A4.
■"Japan to Take 'Friendly' Approach With China Over Gas Drilling," by Ginny Parker Woods, Wall Street Journal, 5-6 November 2005, p. A4.
■"U.S., China Agree to 3-Year Deal On Textile Trade," by Mei Fong and Greg Hitt, Wall Street Journal, 7 November 2005, p. A3.
Global trade negotiations are always at death's door, until the breakthrough occurs. This is the queer history of globalization's emerging economic rule set: delay and non-action and hardened positions, then panic and a
shturmovschina-like rush to beat the deadline, typically getting in just under the wire with an agreement that's nothing more than an agreement to have an agreement.
Watch regional trade efforts continue to falter until the Doha "development round" of the World Trade Organization bears some fruit.
Hugo Chavez can prance and strut all he wants, but he offers no answers with state-heavy economics and socialism. He's just a useful tool for South American leaders, like Brazil, to needle the U.S. with over its rather sluggish pursuit of reduce agriculture subsidies to its domestic farmers.
Yes, yes, trade threatens all even as it lifts hundreds of millions out of poverty around the world (Riddle me this: Who exactly is China "exploiting" with its development? Quick! Ah yes, that would be Americans.)
Just watch the Old and New Core come together in hastily arranged, last-minute negotiations in London and Geneva to hammer out the deal. Brazil and India, New Core pillars, will represent the Group of 20 (virtually all New Core states), the U.S. and EU will rep the Old Core, and Australia will rep the food producers (Cairns Group of 17). Missing will be the hardcore ag protectionists like Japan, South Korea, Switzerland et. al.
But expect a deal to get cut. The Americans and Europeans will throw money at the problem, promising special aid. Par for the course.
This isn't being optimistic. It's just counting on normal greed and expecting the logic of nonzero sum competition to emerge. So Japan will make nice with China over logically shared energy reserves in the South China Sea, and America and China will make nice over textiles.
And the Doha deal will get cut just in time, and that will trigger Mercosur getting its way with America on the Free Trade Area of the America, and it will all work out in the end because everybody wants to make some money over no money, and more money than before.