Oil scarcity will be about investment, not reserves, in coming years

■"Oil Producers Are Urged To Invest in More Capacity," by Jad Mouawad, New York Times, 7 November 2005, p. C5.

Interesting report from International Energy Agency in Paris, basically an analytical creature of consuming states. It says that the world is looking at roughly $3 trillion in infrastructure investments in current oil-producing states if rising demand is going to be met over the next 25 years.

That's the cool catch-22 at work here: if we want the Middle East to satisfy the energy demand in both the Old Core (West) and New Core (East), then the region has no choice but to open itself up to significant capital flows. What the countries in the region earn from oil exports won't be enough, not with those youth bulges working their way through their populations.

So not a question of supplies, but what the region's autocratic regimes are willing to risk in their political evolution in order to meet the global market's incredible demand.

Otherwise, the Core takes its business (and its technology) elsewhere, as in hydrogen.

Clock is ticking all right.