Ahmadinejad/Ahmadi-Nejad represents as much opportunity as threat

■"Coping with the rising cost of marriage, Iranian-style," by Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 8 November 2005, p. 4.

■"Second coming for imam is first concern for Iranian president," by Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 9 November 2005, p. 8.

■"Channeling history in Iran," editorial, USA Today, 9 November 2005, p. 9A.

Admnadinejad (let's stay with the NYT spelling for now) is a scary dude. His belief in the Shiite version of something analogous to the Second Coming in Christianity puts him in the same category as the End Times crowd here in the U.S.

Fine to believe, yes, but when you start drawing up city plans (in Tehran) for the 12th imam's appearance (a religious icon from the 12th century) and you happen to be the duly elected mayor, well Ö that's something altogether different.

But Ahmandinejad's also got his practical side, creating a $1.3 billion dollar fund, upon assuming the presidency, to help marriage couples throughout Iran deal with the custom of dowries.

On that subject, listen to this young Iranian male and tell me they're so different:

"If you go as a suitor and the girl was born in [1981] the family may ask for 1,360 gold coins [corresponding to the Iranian calendar year 1360]," laughs Mostafa, a 23-year-old man. "And that's not to mention the car and the house they also want. I'm a student and don't know if I can find a job."

Think this guy's waiting on the Second Coming?

As one former vice president and cleric puts it, "Mr. Ahmadi-Nejad's project must fail. He is caught in the paradox of those who understand religious mystery in a literal way. Of course, we must pray for the return of the imam, but [in government] we must also tackle inflation and unemployment."

Ahmadinejad's got plenty of Iranian government officials worried. "In foreign policy, officials worry an emphasis on the 12th Imam not only puzzles Europe and Russia while Iran tries to revive talks over its nuclear programme but alienates Sunni, a majority in the Muslim world, who do not share the Shia view of the imam's return."

USA Today likes to describe Ahmadinejad as the return of Ayatollah Khomeini, but as the FT piece points out, Khomeini drew a firm line on the End Times types among the Shia, meaning he was never their friend.

But in the end, what does Ahmadinejad's outbursts and scary fundamentalism really do?

Here I think USA Today's editorial board has it correct:

Ever since he made his outrageous remarks calling Israel a "disgraceful blot" that should be "wiped off the map," there has been a global outpouring of censure. The Tehran stock market has plummeted. Iranian commentators have called for moderation. Tehran has offered to return to stalled nuclear talks with the Europeans. Today, Iran's parliament is due to vote on a new oil ministeróan Ahmadinejad crony with little experience [Ouch! Who does that sound like?] Opponents are promising a fight.

The paper's take? "In an unintended way, the slight, bearded former major of Tehran might yet re-open a needed debate in Iran about its future."

Now is the time to strike preemptively, I say, with a diplomatic offer the mullahs cannot refuse.

This future is ours for the taking.