EU: once in, the difficulties begin

COLUMN: “Europe’s Marxist dilemma: It is easier to influence a country before than after it joins the club,” by Charlemagne, The Economist, 26 April 2008, p. 72.

Contrary to Parag Khanna’s optimism in Second World, the EU is having a lot of trouble rebranding east central European states once they’re let into the union. Seems once they’re in, they don’t take advice from Brussels so seriously, aping the sloppy compliance from most of the old EU members. It’s basically the new guys saying, “Well, so-and-so doesn’t meet that criteria either, so why the heck should I?”

As for the stiff fines for persistent offense outlined in the EU accords? The EU does not apply them.

Yet another good reason why we shouldn’t expect the EU to become anything close to what we fear from China: the legendary “near-peer competitor”!

The American have struck—again

ARTICLE: “U.S. Says Strike Kills Leader of a Somali Militia Suspected of Ties to Al Qaeda: A Blow to Islamists In the Horn of Africa,” by Eric Schmitt and Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 2 May 2008, p. A10.

SOCCENT (Special Operations Command, Central Command) finally nails Somali militia leader and Al Qaeda operative Aden Hashi Ayro. I had written about SOCCENT’s previous attempts to nail him in southern Somalia in the Esquire July 2007 article, “The Americans Have Landed.” He escaped that time, hurt, and soon popped up back in Mogadishu, allegedly after recouping a bit in Yemen.

Discussing AFRICOM

Tom got this email:

Tom,

I greatly enjoy your writing. I revisited PNM on my flight to Stuttgart several weeks ago for an AFRICOM business conference. As a regular attendee of similar conferences, I was interested in how the USG was planning to address the mostly humanitarian missions on the continent. The role they seem to be undertaking is the SysAdmin, but they can't seem to shake the Combatant out of Combatant Command.

I have been waiting for slides from the conference to appear on the website (www.africom.mil) and they should be there soon. The discussions were similar to the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command's meeting in March. Those slides should be available too.

I just thought you'd be interested and would love to see your comments on AFRICOM in the future.

Regards,

Tom replies:

Thanks for note.

Your diagnosis is expected. Enterra hired ADM Ulrich who ran Africa for EUCOM prior (old friend of mine) and he and I agree: right new wine suffering old bottle format, example being Congressional committees to which it reports (do you want HASC and SASC? Not really).

But this is best next iteration, meaning next conversations and debates are forced, so you take progress where you get it.

Good effect is example (cannibalizig effect): already SOUTHCOM proposing to mimic 2 dep commander structure.

So AFRICOM remains the experiment to watch.

The usual Gap response, the usual Core opportunity

ARTICLE: "Myanmar Sets Hurdles to Aid and Exludes U.S.: U.N. Relief Limited, Other Help Spurned; Disease Fears Spread," by Tom Wright and Patrick Barta, Wall Street Journal, 9 May 2008, p. A10.

OP-ED: "A Silver Lining For Burma?" by Maureen Aung-Thwin, Wall Street Journal, 9 May 2008, p. A17.

The junta, just like Kim in North Korea, fears that an influx of foreigners will destabilize their rule, so aid is refused, delayed and limited. As the death role rises, the external pressure only grows.

An opportunity for China to step up and impress, but I'm not hearing about or seeing any leadership there (am I missing something?).

Aung-Thwin brings up the Aceh example as something the junta naturally fears: the former rebel leader invited to peace talks and now he's the duly elected head of Aceh. The Christmas Tsunamis of 2004 broke that logjam--very old. Could the Cyclone Nargis do something similar in Myanmar?

This is the fear. So long as the junta keeps the country largely disconnected, their rule appears secure. But when the cyclone creates such super-disconnect, the local dictators risk losing their centralized control out of the need for outside help and the "dangerous" connectivity it brings.

It's always the most ambitious and richest who want out

ARTICLE: "Clashes Break Out as Bolivian Province Votes on More Autonomy," by Simon Romero, New York Times, 5 May 2008, p. A5.

ARTICLE: "Bolivia's Morales Agrees to Referendum," by John Lyons, Wall Street Journal, 10-11 May 2008, p. A6.

The growing rift between richer Santa Cruz and the rest of Bolivia that indigenous prez Evo Morales wants to turn into an Indian welfare-state based on natural resources wealth is made clear as the province holds an election on a series of referendum measures to grant it more autonomy.

Unrest naturally follows.

When globalization beckons and different visions emerge regarding the level and nature of connectivity, watch for the "divorce" proceedings/petitions.

They arrive in many forms.

Santa Cruz's vote to detach, plus three other provinces aiming to do the same, thus imperil Morales' anti-globalization presidency.

He now submits to a "do or die" national referendum, or basically a confidence/no confidence vote.

Almost to the Everglades

Saturday I sat through another one of my younger son's anguished Little League games. Despite batting .750 (15/20), Jerry simply wasn't having fun He just doesnt' have a team sport personality, taking losses way too badly.

So we pulled him out of that and put in motion our long-planned shift to road racing (he already golfs) Sunday morning. I had done this with my first two kids at 8 and it worked well (older son Kev still races and runs track and XC). So the boys and I ran a 5k in Lebanon, with Kev finishing top-ten (7:27 pace) out of 60 or so runners and Jerry and I clocking in at 27:46 (8:57 mile pace, for 35/36).

Never had to cajole Jerry once. He's got a natural stride that's very hard to teach, and his intense hatred for losing serves him far better here, because he instinctively fends off challengers and passes people. I never told him a thing, he just naturally did it.

What a joy it was to be there for Jer's entire first race--a real thrill. And so cool to track Kev in the distance. I was really proud.

Naturally, I immediately signed us up for another race.

Then flew AirTran to Fort Meyer FL, jumped in limo, and was taken to nice coastal Hyatt for big company conference (truck/transport tech firm Eaton), where I keynoted opening night to 300-or-so senior staff. The group's top execs caught my act in Vegas a while back (not every grand strategist can say that!).

Next morn Jenn Posda picks me up and we drive up to Tampa to meet up with Adm. Ulrich for an Enterra meet with local, county, and state officials on crisis response and port issues.

Then Harry and I fly to BWI, get rental, and drive to DC hotel to meet Steve and this fascinating guy whose our loafers-on-the-ground lawyer in Irbil, capital of the Kurdish Regional Goverment, where we maintain an office for the Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢ projects (B2B, call center, investment centers). This Brit is unreal: after the war (summer 03) and all on his own, he leaves his cushy job in a prestigious London firm and, armed only with a sat phone and laptop and sets up his own firm in Baghdad, now expanded to Irbil.

Is that frontier lawyering or what?

Guy calls it "the best move I ever made."

Meetings with Steve go to midnight (norm) and then I'm up at 0600 to swim laps before flying US home to Indy, where I jump in my car and immediately drive 350 miles to my next gig tonight.

Fake law in China

ARTICLE: "Concerns About China Arbitration Rise," by Ashby Jones and Andrew Batson, Wall Street Journal, 9 May 2008, p. B1.

Chinese ape rising global use of private arbitrators to settle business disputes (just like in family law in U.S.), but seem to deliver a fairly biased stream of judgments in favor of Chinese companies vs. foreign ones.

Instead of reducing biz cost and uncertaintly, the longer they pursue this line, the more foreign companies will reconsider the real "costs" of doing business there.

You can use market power to force a localized business rule set, but the longer you do it, the less attractive you make yourself in a network trade world, referring to the two-thirds of globalization's trade that's controlled by multinationals (with half being true network, or intra-corporate trade). By that I mean you just seem like a riskier node.

The ways companies hedge on this typically is called the "China plus one" strategy of locating X facilities in China but always backing one up elsewhere in SE Asia (increasingly Vietnam). The more China pretends it will have its own way of conducting business, the more hedging we'll see by multinationals.

Galrahn's Information Dissemination elevation

POST: The Expeditionary Approach To Africa, By Galrahn, Information Dissemination, April 16, 2008

Galrahn continues to elevate: explaining and expanding others' work while forging a brand all his own.

This is a blog for people who want to know how to use a blog to move a community's discussion while nicely showing off one's own analytic skills.

I find myself taking notes, especially regarding how he maintains a high tone. When he criticizes my own, I listen.

I take mentors wherever I can get them.

Ideological disconnect

ARTICLE: The radical loser, By Hans Magnus Enzensberger, signandsight.com, 01/12/2005

Good stuff, very much in my mode of "disconnectedness defines danger." And frankly, this does not contradict either Marc Sageman or Olivier Roy's analysis.

(Thanks: zenpundit)

Recommendation: Democratic alliance

ARTICLE: Obama Seeks To Unify Party For November, By Shailagh Murray and Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post, May 9, 2008; Page A01

I think Hillary is running for Veep at this point.

I also think Obama should consider this.

It would seal the deal with plenty of Dems he might not otherwise secure.

French SysAdmin bill

POST: French Operations Cost One Aircraft Carrier Every Three Years, by Christina Mackenzie, Ares

Fairly clear on the Leviathan/SysAdmin budgetary trade-offs, from a French perspective.

Tom around the web

+ Todd McLauchlin linked The current bibliography (books only) of "Great Powers".
+ So did SWJ Blog.

+ PurpleSlog referred to Tom in his radio interview on 5GW.
+ And Civilian Irregular Information Defense Group transcribed it.
+ Renate Zimmermann Coleshill reviewed 'The Americans Have Landed'.
+ gmgDesign linked last week's column.
+ And linked Hear ye, hear ye: U.S. is number one in prisons!
+ Which AZspot also linked.
+ Capitol Commerce linked Sachs' "Common Wealth".
+ The CFA Institute, who Tom spoke for last week in Vancouver, put out this press release on his talk which Canada News Wire picked up.
+ Gunnar Peterson lists PNM and BFA on his Information Security Reading List.
+ The Interpreter linked We've got a lot of nerve.

+ Dreadful Hardship embedded the Brief on YouTube.
+ Sun Bin (where ya' been, man?!) quotes Tom on Kaplan.
+ Curtis Gale Weeks referred to Tom on 5GW.
+ Tom's a runner-up for Exurban League's five person ultimate dinner party.
+ Fear and Loathing in Georgetown linked There, there, young China.
+ SWJ Blog also linked Gates in touch with the future but increasingly out of step with Pentagon's "big war" crowd.
+ Quality Leadership Weblog has Tom as the sole recommendation on his blogroll. Yes! ;-)
+ ESDELADEA reprinted Grain companies will be the vilified oil companies of the future (like they were in the past).
+ New Yorker in DC refers to Tom in a discussion of the state failure in Myanmar.
+ Danger Room wrote that Tom must be happy about Gates' recent emphasis on technology the current war fighter can use.
+ CP referred to Tom's opinion of McCain on globalization.

+ et alli linked this week's column.
+ So did zenpundit.
+ So did Quality Leadership Weblog.

Those who hope for McCain, China-as-enemy

ARTICLE: Beijing Embraces Classical Fascism, By Michael A. Ledeen, AEI, May 6, 2008

Some truly unhelpful--even dangerous--name-calling from a pro-capitalist organization than should know better. Bad history, but Robert Kagan pushing it too in his new book. Clearly, the neocons are re-engaging in demonizing China--just too tempting a target and it's just so easy to bandwagon in anticipation of a McCain presidency. Remember what they wanted and pursued before 9/11 interrupted their focus.

You want WWIII or IV (I lose count), these gentlemen are your posse.

Honestly, Ledeen uses such self-serving terms, definitions and diagnoses that I could replace "China" and the "Chinese Communist Party" and substitute "America" and the "Bush-Cheney regime" and actually get through all the way through without laughing.

So truly misguided to be throwing such bricks from their glass fort.

Good move in Ghana

ARTICLE: E-zwich Smartcard Launched, By Samuel Amoako and David Adadevoh, The Ghanaian Times, 29 April 2008

You can see why Ghana is working, with leadership thinking like this.

(Thanks: Gunnar Peterson)

Life finds a way

Tom got this email:

Dr. Barnett,

As a young Armor officer training at Ft. Knox, our schedule this week consists of attending the many briefings of this year's Armor symposium. This has been a great opportunity for me not only to learn about the modernization of my branch, but also current line of thinking on the future of the Army as a whole. After hearing briefings from both the Sergeant Major of the Army and the TRADOC Commander I was able to gather a better understanding of how the Army sees its role in this "era of persistent conflict". One thing in particular, I wanted to share with you:

In the absence of a System Administrator, our military over the foreseeable future appears to be evolving system administrator-like capabilities out of necessity. The coming editions of field manuals and training programs take a noticeable shift from Counterinsurgency to priorities like communication and connectivity. There was talk of a future emphasis on language training and sending officers into internships with civilian companies and foreign embassies. It reminds me of Jeff Goldblum's quote from Jurassic Park - "Life finds a way".

Regards,

Classic stock mania (in China)

ARTICLE: China Leaves Small Investors Behind on Road To Capitalism, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, May 3, 2008; Page A01

Insecticide in China is the equivalent of jumping out of skyscrapers in NYC in the late 20s.

Classic stock mania: people get way too wrapped up in market movements and start acting like it's their ticket to paradise.

Then the crash and some can't take the adjustment.

Tom's last radio appearance mp3 [Updated]

Thanks to Dude for pointing this out in the comments:

One can listen to an archive of Tom's appearence on the radio show by visiting this link and choosing May 16th at 6 PM. (Tom was EST, the station is MST). Then fast forward up to about 40 minutes into the program.

http://www.am770chqr.com/StationShared/Audiovault.aspx

Tom spoke for less that 20 minutes and there were few/no interruptions by the host, ads, or callers. So, short, sweet, and worth a listen.

Update: Tom says:

Actually, there were 2 disruptions in my home office. I caught Vonne coming in, before she said anything. Later, son Jerry strolled in, with a give-me-an-audience-now! look on his face. Amazingly, I hand signal him out before he speaks, but if you listen carefully, I lose my way in an answer about 2/3rds of the way through the segment.

This week's column

What will America do when Iran has nuclear weapons?

Hillary Clinton promises she'd "obliterate" Iran if it used nuclear weapons against Israel, suggesting that, as president, she'd return the "favor" -- in spades.

Putting aside campaign rhetoric, the senator raises an excellent point: What will America do when Iran gets nuclear weapons? Many national security experts still think Washington can stop Tehran's reach for the bomb. I am not one of them. Iran has already achieved a sloppy, asymmetrical form of nuclear deterrence, meaning we can't stop it from "getting nuclear" unless we "go nuclear" pre-emptively, something we won't do.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Why Japan continues to make itself less than the sum of its economic parts

ARTICLE: "Japan's Companies Gird for Attack: Fearing Takeovers, They Rebuild Walls; Rise of Poison Pills," by Andrew Morse and Sebastian Moffett, Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2008, p. A1.

Maybe Murdoch didn't bank sub-titles after all!

Japan's companies are good targets for takeovers, so the walls go up. Better for Japan to stay Japanese than improve.

This is why Japan remains unimportant and un-influential in global affairs: it can't embrace such roles because it cannot embrace the world. Compare this to a China that lets outside multinationals control two-thirds of its exports.

Seismic diversion

ARTICLE: Quake in China Kills Thousands, By Jill Drew, Washington Post, May 13, 2008; Page A01

Quake in China will be, sad to say, great diversion from Myanmar and Tibet in terms of China's national PR right now. Clearly, given the high-viz response, Beijing's leaders feel need to demonstrate competency relative to junta down south.