Tom is on the (internet) radio tonight

Ok, same drill as yesterday, rescheduled. Specifics:

8:40-9 ET
The World Tonight with Rob Breakenridge
AM770 CHQR
Calgary, AB

There's a listen in live button at the top of the page. I tried it out once and it worked no problem, so plan on listening in.

Two nights in a row!

Picked up at Amtrak BWI station by head of Solipsys and we have fab dinner at great spot Old Ellicott City with his senior staff. Company in wholly-owned Raytheon sub.

Then to hotel and 0030 and room "released' again!

Eventually set up at Baltimore City Harbor with view into Camden Yards. Get 6 and then up to do long 2-hour mega-brief to staff with 30 Q&A.

Then to BWI for SWA home.

Delayed flights, rooms given away, it's a weird trip. But all works out in end with only one meet lost.

Need some sleep, though.

Grain companies will be the vilified oil companies of the future (like they were in the past)

ARTICLE: "Grain Companies' Profits Soar As Global Food Crisis Mounts," by David Kesmodel, Lauren Etter, and Aaron O. Patrick, Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2008, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "Farming Critics Fault Industry's Influence," by Elizabeth Williamson, Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2008, p. A4.

ARTICLE: "Fat Profits Test Public-Relations Skills," by George Anders, Wall Street Journal, 30 April 2008, p. B1.

Just like in the 1970s, big "bad" corporations will be vilified over rising commodity prices.

Dovetails nicely with sense that, in a generation's time, food networks will be considered more vital and vulnerable and volatile than energy nets.

It's weird, but I think we move from past reality where energy was always found distant from needs and food grown locally to the exact opposite: food grown and moved over great distances and energy generated more locally.

And I think global warming fuels both trends—pun intended.

Zakaria's "Post-American World" and Kagan "The Return of History"

Neither really sells the title, but it doesn't matter with Zakaria's book, which is utterly without hyperbole and sensibly balances political arguments with enough economics resulting in a lot of calm, reasoned analysis.

Kagan, meanwhile, can write such short books (really an essay) because he only covers one side of the equation. His book is all pol-mil and power and states run everything. Basically ignored are globalization and financial interdependence and the rise of network trade, etc. Instead, defense budgets signal far more, and even though there are no great power wars in the offing, Kagan reminds us that they're "not unthinktable"! If the last book is subtly repudiated here (turns out we and Europe are alike in our non-autocratic governments), a mere few years after it was written, I don't think we'll need to wait so long on this one. For example, India, supposed logical member of the "axis of democracies," wants its oil and gas from Iran and tells the U.S. to bug off with its advice ("India Pursues Energy From Iran," by Peter Wonacott, WSJ, 30 April 2008, p. A8). Meanwhile, Hu is set to visit Japan in the first visit by a Chinese head of state in a decade, resulting in what the WSJ calls the "clearest sign yet that Asia's two largest economies are moving beyond political disputes that have overshadowed mushrooming trade and investment" ("Chinese President to Visit Japan," WSJ wire, 30 April 2008, p. A8.). And then there's Ma's election in Taiwan. Damn! Don't these great powers know they're supposed to be struggling against each other and us for global domination! How come they keep making deals instead?

I will probably compare and contrast the two books in a future column. They really do oppose each other in world views: Zakaria sees a world based on economics and Kagan sees one based on politics and ideology. But at the end of the day both will say that we're simply heading into a more competitive landscape. In that sense, Zakaria's prescriptions come off—as mild as they are—as far more sensible than Kagan's us-v-them stuff which strikes me as super-imposing conflict where none exists.

Ah, but that doesn't make it "unthinkable"!!!!!!

America's China challenge (or why I fear McCain)

ARTICLE: 'A Road Map To Modernity: As Congo's Ambitious Project to Connect Mining Cities and Ports Nears, a Village Offers a Glimpse of the Promise and Peril,' By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, May 2, 2008; Page A01

This I find fascinating as a tale.

In my brief I joke that China, the unprincipled SysAdmin, simply says, "Where's your stuff [like mines]? Really? Where are your ports? Can I build a road from your stuff to your ports?"

Well, here's a perfect example. All sorts of good and bad come with new connectivity, but the real freedom unleashed tends to be economic vice political.

The big question for the Chinese as they set all such things in motion: How much do we/they themselves/locals hold the Chinese responsible for what ensues?

With Sudan, people will point to the arms transfer, as well they should. But that's an obvious one and a pretty easy one to address, but change of the sort cited in this piece is a lot more profound and complex, with no easy answers.

Chinese will say, "Our policy is no interference politically," but of course, when you foster such huge economic change, political repercussions are sure to follow. Pretending otherwise is disingenuous.

So China will need to discover and enunciate a far more fully-fledged foreign policy as a result. Shaping this process for the better is arguably the most important thing America does is its foreign policy in coming years.

Or you can simply try to exclude China and lecture and sanction it, which will certainly shape their foreign policy--just maybe not in the direction we're looking for.

Hence my fears of McCain and the resurrection of the neocons.

Pay them now or cost yourself soon

ARTICLE: "Fewer Latin Migrants Send Money Home, Poll Says: Slowing Economy, Legal Crackdown Said to Cut Flows," by Miriam Jordan, Wall Street Journal, 1 May 2008, p. A4.

Most Hispanic population growth in the U.S. is now from births to parents/families already living here, not immigrants.

Of the roughly 20m Latinos adults living in the U.S., half are illegal. On average, those who remit money end up sending $325 home 15 times a year. Last year, that yielded a total of $46 billion, which is a lot more than America sends in foreign aid globally.

The danger now? Slower economy means less money remitted, means more economic distress in Latin America, more more illegals showing up.

Pay them now or rack up the costs later.

Still, stunning to consider the combination of people/money flow.

Tom's NOT on the (internet) radio tonight [updated]

Update: Belay that. Tom had to cancel. May reschedule for later, in which case I'll let you know. As you were.

Tonight at 9:35 ET Tom's going to be on:

The World Tonight with Rob Breakenridge
AM770 CHQR
Calgary, AB

There's a listen in live button at the top of the page. I tried it out once and it worked no problem, so plan on listening in.

The fragility of perfection yields the practicality of cooperation

COLUMN: “The fragility of perfection: When supply chains go wrong,” by Buttonwood, The Economist, 3 May 2008, p. 82.

ARTICLE: “Streams of blood, or streams of peace: Talk of thirsty armies marching to battle is surely overdone, but violence and drought can easily go together,” The Economist, 3 May 2008, p. 67.

Specialization depends on supply. The more specialization, the more the global economy depends on the reliability of supply. Since globalization integrates trade by disintegrating production and spreading it across the planet, our growing connectivity and efficiency in production makes us all more dependent on each others, and the logistical chains that link us.

Obviously that forces us to make those networks as resilient as possible, so the dominant security agenda of the globalization era is protecting those supply lines. That’s why I work for Enterra; I consider it a front-line player in global security. Done right, prosperity reigns. Done poorly, and yes, people die from all sorts of mishaps and purposeful attacks.

But even if done well, don’t we face all manner of security struggles over scarce resources?

The Economist says the “water wars” scenario remains, as I’ve long noted, completely unsupported by world history:

Researchers at Oregon state University say they have found evidence to the contrary, showing that the world’s 263 trans-boundary rivers (whose basins cover nearly half the land surface of the world) generate more co-operation than conflict. Over the past half-century, 400 treaties had been concluded over the use of rivers. Of the 37 incidents that involved violence, 30 occurred in the dry and bitterly contested region formed by Israel and its neighbors, where the upper end of the Jordan river was hotly disputed, and skirmished over, before Israel took control in the 1967 war. And some inter-state water treaties are very robust. The Indus river pact between India and Pakistan survived two wars and the deep crisis of 2002.

Where the argument holds more water involves regions suffering creeping desertification, but guess what? That civil strife typically unfolds in remote regions that already suffer limited or failed governments, so yeah, global climate change will bring more SysAdmin work, but hardly great power war. Wars tend to be fought over more fungible and therefore more theft-prone resources, like minerals and gems. Water is simply harder to steal and sell, says The Economist.

That’s not to say that water isn’t used by more powerful nations to exercise control over weaker states, but that hardly makes water unique. Power is power.

Isn't it weird Bush can't manage one trial in seven years for 9/11?

ARTICLE: Justice System For Detainees Is Moving At a Crawl, By Josh White, Washington Post, May 6, 2008; Page A01

What does that tell you about what a screwed-up system the administration developed?

Myanmar: China and India

ARTICLE: Burma Says Storm Killed 15,000, By Amy Kazmin, Washington Post, May 6, 2008; Page A01

Will be interesting to see how China and India respond to Myanmar's disaster. India's private sector stepped up nicely with the Christmas Tsunami and clearly the PRC feels some political responsibility for the junta, given the close ties.

Something to watch. Events like these only come around every few years, so it's important we draw powers out commensurately with their "rise."

Upgrade USAID

OPINION: Africa Does Not Have to Starve, By NORMAN BORLAUG and ANDREW NATSIOS, May 2, 2008; Page A13

Good, logical attempt by the Bush Administration to make USAID more intelligently responsive to local suffering. No sense in destroying local capacity during this crisis.

(Thanks: Galrahn)

God bless Canada--and Canadians

Flew last night to Vancouver, through O'Hare. Picked up by driver and taken to Pan Pacific Vancouver, a high-end hotel downtown on the shore that's designed to resemble a cruise ship and actually serves as a load/offload center for them, along with a huge convention center. I have nice room on 18th, where I shoot the posted pic.

Up early, I exercise and then gear up. First is a 6-min on-camera taped interview with BNN (Business News Network), Canada's CNBC. I am interviewed by a Calgary-based correspondent here for the huge CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) international conference.

Then I go to green room set up behind giant wall of black fabric that serves as stagefront in this cavernous convention hall. After previous session ends, I have 30 min to work AV with crew. I go 50 as planned, working off stage in front of big screen, augmented by 2 huge ones on side, where my presentation, plus a live feed of me is presented (always nice to check out the emerging bald spot). Then 10 mins of questions from moderator. These are pre-culled from audience. Guy later told me he toned them down because most were highly hostile to the U.S./Bush administration. Felt like I had won audience over anyway.

Then grab Mac and my two bags and race to lobby, jumping into limo. Change out during ride and then bit the airport.

Here's the amazing part: when filling out my customs form, I leave my Treo at the stand. I discover my loss about 20 mins later, freaking out just a bit. After searching my bags and person, and retracing my steps, I ask United rep where lost phone would be returned (luckily, my flight left a tad late) and sure enough, somebody turned in my expensive phone to the info booth!

So I made my O'Hare flight intact.

Now only question is if I make my connection in Chicago or get stuck overnight.

CFA conference was huge. Audience at least 3,000--probably closer to 4k. Jeffrey Sachs and Steven Levitt ("Freakonomics" guy) also featured. Been a while for me to speak to such a huge group. Laughs take a while to gather steam in such a huge room, so you have to watch your timing.

Hear ye, hear ye: U.S. is number one in prisons!

ARTICLE: "Inmate Count In U.S. Dwarfs Other Nations': Tough Laws and Long Terms Create Gap," by Adam Liptak, New York Times, 23 April 2008, p. A1.

We are five percent of global population but house almost one-quarter of prisoners, but that fits our share of garbage, pollution, energy use, GDP production, etc., so hardly a shocker.

Bigger problem is that we produce more ex-cons that anybody on planet, and that's bad for business. As so many are minor drug offenders, this is wasteful and pointless. Better to medicalize the solution than stalk functional illiterates in droves and stick them in prison for several years.

China has 4X our population but only 1.6 million in prison compared to our 2.3 million.

We are a "rogue state" says one criminologist.

Some states get it right, though. Minnesota looks like Sweden, whereas Texas is just this side of Russia.

Over 50 percent of our fed prisoners are there for drugs! That's just nutty. For $75k a year, I can spend that money on the guy better and still have plenty left over.

Scary glimpse of global warming future?

ARTICLE: "From Six-Year Drought in Australia, a Global Crisis Over Rice," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 17 April 2008, p. A1.

Jon Stewart had a climate expert on a while back who was fairly middle of the road on responses but took primarily a historical view of the potentialities, saying that one thing that's very likely to unfold will be lengthy periods of droughts. During the last big warming (around 1500?), the Earth saw lengthy droughts.

The immediate downside is that people are put on the move for water and that ag production shifts.

With this six-year drought, Australia's rice production collapses and that's a big reason why the price on that particular commodity is so up.

On the jump page there was a map of the world that showed "global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country" from William R. Cline of the Peterson Institute (2007).

The map showed ag production increases over almost all of Canada and the upper half of the U.S. Only other winner in Western Hemisphere was Argentina.

Europe and Russia and most of China with moderate increases. Africa, the Middle East, SE and South Asia and Oz are mostly losers. NZ a slight winner.

In short, the Core does okay or better for the most part, and the Gap suffers badly for the most part. The big Core casualties are India, Australia, and Brazil, with India suffering the most.

There, there, young China

WORLD NEWS: "China Reins in Nationalistic Anger: Government Stifles Anti-West Protests; Olympics Play Role," by Geoffrey A. Fowler, Juliet Ye and Loretta Chao, Wall Street Journal, 24 April 2008, p. A6.

As China's leaders have learned in the past, once it gets going, nationalism among the youth can quickly get out of hand, especially since the large majority of that 210 million online are under 30.

Of course, when outsiders sample sentiment online, they're choosing from a very restricted pool. So beware analyses that suggest "all" of China is up in arms. Young people in China aren't allowed to get jacked about much, so when given a patriotic chance, they tend to go overboard, like young people everywhere.

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure!

ARTICLE: "In Africa, Outages Stifle a Boom: Electricity Cuts Plague 35 Nations; Waiting in Gakuto, by Sarah Childress, Wall Street Journal, 17 April 2008, p. A1.

Ah, when the WSJ still had those double-jointed sub-titles! It seems like only ... two weeks ago.

Key bit: "Frequent and disruptive power outages plague about 35 of sub-Saharan Africa's 53 countries"

If I got that level of service, I'd chase away the electricity bill collectors with machetes too!

The real problem? Lack of solid service puts a major constraint on growing economies there.

Sounds like a job for . . . Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢!

Fields for food or fuel?

GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS: Siphoning Off Corn to Fuel Our Cars, By Steven Mufson, Washington Post, April 30, 2008; Page A01

Good article about what some call the "misleading" link between higher food prices and diverting fields to biofuel.

Where in the world is Tom?

Foggy day.

Notice the waterplane landing in foreground.

To get rich is to get mobile

ARTICLE: "With First Car, a New Life in China: Attracting New Respect and a Good Marriage," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 24 April 2008, p. C1.

Pretty standard stuff, by historical terms. Huntington says Western and modern are different, but more and more, Asia proves that surface similarities hide deeper ones. We keep looking for the political similarities, but the similarities in human needs (and what is economics but the meeting of human needs?) are stunning.

People get rich and they want respect for their accomplishment, which they externalize and internalize similarly the world over.

Go back far enough and big muscles and other outward signs of you (the male) being a good provider is what gets you a bride. Deal doesn't change that much when you get money; you just adorn yourself differently.

Stupid choice by Putin shows limits of his imagination

ARTICLE: "At Expense of All Others, Putin Picks a Church," by Clifford J. Levy, New York Times, 24 April 2008, p. A1.

The siloviki ("power guys") know only one thing: how to crush opposition. Getting power, they don't know much about wielding it, but getting it is all they're about, along with turning Russia into a business masquerading as a government.

Company town needs a company church.

Stupid and pointless effort to homogenize religion.

Putin really isn't smart, just paranoid. He wields power very unimpressively, dominating things he has now requirement to control.

As one Russian reader commenting on the story put it best, this is mostly about the Russian Orthodox Church, a weak-ass institution if ever there was one, seeking religious protectionism: "The Russian Orthodox Church chose a simple and efficient method of building up its might—instead of going to the people, it went to the authorities."

Religious protectionism gets you an uncompetitive, non-service-friendly religion. Over time, that becomes a drag on all sorts of needed social upgrades and improvements in efficiency.