Escape from Indianapolis

Escaped with family by car to La Crosse WI, where last of four living brothers finally gets hitched today.

Meanwhile, Mark Warren slaves away on text. Good signs: he cut my "precious" first chapter by one-third! And now demands some grounding text be added. Moreover, chapter 2 is now appendix 1, because Mark felt the book started too slow with it up front.

Some authors would freak at such treatment, but this exactly why I always work with Mark on books. I want a serious and committed editor in charge.

I am getting very much excited.

Finish this bubba and then it's the Badlands for the Barnetts in June. Gotta get in touch with my inner Crazy Horse and clear away the Deadwood.

The precious village holds India back

ARTICLE: "Shoveling for their supper: The world's biggest public-works project just got bigger," The Economist, 26 April 2008, p. 57.

An FDR-like public works project manned by rural poor, who can ask for and receive 100 days of work each year from the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), something the Congress Party dreamed up as a platform plank in its winning return a few years back (2004).

Why needed? It is estimated that 85% of state welfare spending fails to reach intended recipients.

Nice.

India will compare weakly to China for a long time because it exalts the village so, a bad legacy of Mahatma Gandhi, with all his self-sufficiency nonsense. So India doesn't try to lure rural poor into cities (plenty go there to find few manufacturing jobs anyway, as India's manufacturing base is a tiny fraction of China's 100 million formal sector job base), and "Shining India" (the BJP's losing campaign mantra from 2004) is largely informal (shadow economy, or gray market) and the service sector accounts for roughly half of formal GDP, meaning India basically leapfrogs to services and never bothers (yet) to seriously build up manufacturing.

The Manpower that avoids most of the Gap

PRIME NUMBERS: "Help Wanted," by Neil M. Coe, Jennifer Johns and Kevin Ward, Foreign Policy, May-June 2008, p. 36.

Interesting map of Manpower's overseas ops. Manpower is a Milwaukee-HQ'd temp agency.

A colored map shows the basic outline of the Gap quite nicely, scrunched in a bit, suggesting the continued penetration into, and resulting shrinkage of, the Gap by globalization's networks, of which Manpower is one of bajillions.

Fascinating stuff.

Worldwide temps, daily average, rises from 4m people in 1996 to 9m in 2006. Revenue likewise triples from $105b to $301b.

Future strategy on GWOT

Wednesday afternoon, after I drove from Sheboygan to Indy, I jumped on a SWA direct to BWI. Then a rental to a local restaurant for long dinner with my host (senior Applied Physics Lab analyst) and a fellow seminar presenter (longtime UPI writer).

Yesterday, I attend Day 2 of seminar at APL on future strategies for GWOT (next presidency) and give a 3-hour brief (maximal version). Then after lunch I do about 45 Q&A.

Then I participate in about 90 more group discussion.

Finally home last night after Indy-Fort Meyer-Bonita Springs-Tampa- BWI-DC-Reagan-Indy-Sheboygan/Kohler-Indy-BWI-Columbia-BWI-Indy journey that encompassed about 7 hours of briefing and plenty of driving.

AFRICOM: forward and back

ARTICLE: Pentagon scales back AFRICOM ambitions, By Gordon Lubold, Christian Science Monitor, May 16, 2008

Don't be surprised by the back-tracking. This was the military's reach, not the rest of the government's.

Here's the key realization:

Officials have had to make other adjustments. Initially billed as a "whole of government" approach to solving the region's problems, the new, hybrid command had sought to marry military and civilian expertise.

"To make it more effective, we want to incorporate other nonmilitary US players working in Africa so the security piece is optimized," says Col. Pat Mackin, a spokesman for US Africa Command. But, he adds, "There is no government mechanism to create a true interagency headquarters." [italics mine]

The command of about 1,300 people will still be half civilian and half military, and agencies such as the US State Department will be given senior positions.

Enough is done by this administration simply to set it up and start the evolution. Proof will come in deeds, not promises. Resistance from locals will weaken if we do our job right, and harden if we do it badly.

It's as simple as that.

But good instincts and clear signaling of bureaucratic desire by the much put-upon U.S. military.

We learn by tragedy

ARTICLE: SARS wake-up call now paying off for China, By Jason Subler, Reuters, May 17, 2008

As stated previously in a column, China learns from scandals/disasters. Not pretty, but you know what? Behind nearly every American law or regulation stands a human tragedy.

(Thanks: ROVERfixer)

Gates, of course, was never the problem

ARTICLE: Gates: U.S. Should Engage Iran With Incentives, Pressure, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, May 15, 2008; Page A04

But with Fallon gone, he is forced to step up similarly.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

China's earthquake turning out to be a legitimate System Perturbation

ARTICLE: "In Departure, China Invites Outside Help," by Howard W. French and Edward Wong, New York Times, 16 May 2008, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "China to Allow Foreign Help as Death Toll Is Raised: More Than 50,000 May Have Perished; Appeal for Shovels," by James T. Areddy and Miho Inada, Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2008, p. A6.

ARTICLE: "First Foreign Rescue Team in China Faces Delays," by Hiroko Tabuchi, Wall Street Journal, 17-18 May 2008, p. A6.

ARTICLE: "China seizes moment to heal its image," by Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, 19 May 2008, p. 6.

The Chinese accept equipment and relief experts "from neighbors it has long shunned as rivals or renegades," according to the top NYT story.

This is indeed shaping up as a bit of System Perturbation, which seem to arrive with harmonic regularity for China: SARS, avian flu, Olympic torch, and now the quake. The Japanese send a bunch of recovery experts, the first outsiders accepted during this crisis and "one of the few relief missions China has ever accepted from abroad." Even Taiwan's team is accepted.

All this after Wen takes charge and 130k PLA troops are mobilized to the epicenter.

No doubt, as I noted in a previous blog, China uses this opportunity to soften its image in the run-up to the Olympics. Cynical to say, but the quake's timing was perfect.

Still, there was a certain pokiness resulting from pride. It always happens. Happened here with Katrina and in Japan in the '95 quake.

But still, for China as it emerges, this was a relatively rapid about-face, reflecting a pragmatism that is attractive. After all, Japan and Taiwan are two of the most seismically active places on the planet, so—of course—you take their help. Hell, if Beijing is smart, this event sets the stage for permanent trilateral cooperation on the subject.

And if America is smart, we seek not only to encourage that sort of cooperation, we join it as well.

Nobody in their right mind would ever strategically compare Iran's threat to the USSR

ARTICLE: McCain: Obama's Iran remarks show inexperience, By LIBBY QUAID, AP, May 19, 2008

Good God! This is a stupid argument. Nobody in their right mind--strategically--would ever pretend to compare Iran's threat to that of the Soviet Empire.

Not even in the same f--king zip code.

Come on! We let our national discussion get reduced to this?

Nothing compares: not the strategic threat, not the support for terror, not the ideological threat, not the conventional threat, not the technology threat--none of that stuff from Iran comes anywhere close to the threat of the Soviet Bloc, and anybody selling that is either goofy or a fear-monger.

McCain has really got to rein it in, for the sake of his future and the future of this country--in case he wins.

A bit too convenient for McCain on Iraq

ARTICLE: "McCain Names Drawdown Date: Troop Withdrawal Predicted by 2013 Amid Victory in Iraq," by Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2008, p. A4.

ARTICLE: "Bush's Mideast words go over hot, cold: trip ends in Egypt with a bit of a thud, analysts say," by Charles Levinson, USA Today, 19 May 2008, p. 6A.

McCain is not impressing me lately. When he compares the magnitude of Iran's threat to that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, he strikes me as a closet hysteric, and when he promises "victory" in Iraq (a bad term to use since it stopped being our fight about five years ago) in 2013, a year after his presumed re-election, he seems merely the conventional politician.

McCain, as much as he worries me, seems better and smarter than both of these two strange positions. Again, the guy could well end up president in an America uncomfortable giving the Dems both houses of Congress plus the presidency, so this sort of frantic staking-out of positions disturbs me, especially when I don't sense that he needs this sort of thing to beat Obama. Indeed, by making such statements, he makes Obama seem more the statesman than himself.

Meanwhile, Bush's latest trip to the Mideast summed up his two terms nicely: lotsa preaching but no real answers to security dilemmas there. The Middle East is undergoing a huge amount of social and economic and demographic change right now—stunning really. But Bush keeps only to his democracy message, which is fine, but it comes off as disconnected from today's tumultuous developments, some of which he started with Iraq.

But here's the bit that stunned me for its apparent goofiness (as in, I can't believe he actually said it so I'm wondering if the press got it wrong):

When Bush first launched his Middle East democratization push in the wake of 9/11, he thought he could achieve these goals by the end of his second term, [Meyrav] Wurmser [director of the Middle East program at the Hudson Institute] said.

On Sunday, Bush described the goals as predictions for the year 2068.

That's just plain weird. I don't think any serious thinker would extend the process that far. I would expect the region to be largely democratized no later than 2025.

I suspect Bush was just displaying his odd sense of humor here, but that's rather off-putting considering what he's started in the region and the unfinished jobs he's left behind.

Given that, I would also hope McCain would watch his mouth far more carefully in the weeks and months ahead.

Bush pre-approves Israeli strikes on Iran

ARTICLE: Bush's Comments In Israel Fuel Anger, By Michael Abramowitz, Washington Post, May 16, 2008; Page A08

Bush calling Iran the equivalent of Nazi Germany is his way of signaling the White House's pre-approval for any Israeli military strikes on his watch.

Keep the (immigration) faith!

ARTICLE: Study Says Foreigners In U.S. Adapt Quickly, By N.C. Aizenman, Washington Post, May 13, 2008; Page A02

Another study saying Hispanics and other immigrant minorities assimilate faster than previous newcomer generations. The American dream still attracts and the American systems still absorbs. O ye of little faith in this multinational union!

The '92 comparison bodes well for Obama

ARTICLE: U.S. Outlook Is Worst Since '92, Poll Finds, By Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, Washington Post, May 13, 2008; Page A01

And, of course, strikes a chord with the Bush family.

The path to nuclear disappointment

ARTICLE: Spread of Nuclear Capability Is Feared, By Joby Warrick, Washington Post, May 12, 2008; Page A01

If we play nuke power in emerging markets (meaning we infuse our policy with WMD fears) the same way we screw up foreign aid over abortion, we will end up disappointed.

Our hopes for U.S.-dominated closed-cycle fuel scheme is likely to be met by alt version offered by Russia (as I understand it), so there will all flavors (I predict) for all tastes.

Will quake prompt China maturation?

NEWS ANALYSIS: A Rescue in China, Uncensored, By ANDREW JACOBS, New York Times, May 14, 2008

Fascinating to watch. If China truly matures politically on this response, it will begin to see the selfish strategic logic in doing the same for other states in a SysAdmin function. It will understand what diplomatic benefits accrue.

Plus, having to distance itself from the Myanmar junta's response is a good additional dynamic.

This could end up being a serious System Perturbation, set up nicely by the snow storms last winter and the CCP leadership realizing those were a wake-up call.

(Thanks: Kilngoddess)

Sub-nations negotiating

OP-ED: Bullies of the Caucasus, By THOMAS DE WAAL, WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE, May 14, 2008

POST: Use Connectivity to Win Abkhazia, Coming Anarchy

What I find fascinating here: "sub-nations" negotiating political associations on the basis of which nation/multination offers the most appealing connectivity package.

Don't laugh. It's happened plenty of times in the past. I'm just talking about it becoming more explicit and competitive.

Next-war-itis

ARTICLE: Gates Says New Arms Must Play Role Now, By THOM SHANKER, New York Times, May 14, 2008

TRANSCRIPT: Remarks to the Heritage Foundation, As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Colorado Springs, Colorado, Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Getting fairly explicit from Gates on the Leviathan/SysAdmin division of labor. He's trying to leave as much bureaucratic imprint as possible, so the next SECDEF--if he so desires--has a hard time unwinding his position.

God's work and I respect that.

(Thanks: Tyler Durden)

Terrorists worldwide stump for Obama! October "surprise" predicted!

OP-ED: "Our Enemies and the Election," by Gabriel Schoenfeld, Wall Street Journal, 10-11 May 2008, p.A11.

Straight from one of the Right's most transparent propagandists today:

There is a growing pro-Obama/anti-McCain axis.

Examples include Hamas, Putin, Chavez, Iran and North Korea.

Schoenfeld says FBI and DHS should be put on October alert for pro-Obama terror strike in U.S.

He also says it could backfire to McCain's advantage.

Feel prepared by this sort of transparent propaganda?

I mean, pre-blaming Obama and the Dems for a terror strike on Bush's watch and proposing it would harm McCain's prez bid.

How f--king stupid does this guy think Americans are?

Schoenfeld comes by it naturally though. Former Soviet expert.

Yikes! Imagine doing that for a living.

Naturally, Schoenfeld asserts that any uptick in violence in Iraq will be pro-Obama--another wonderfully preemptive attempt at blaming.

3k civilian deaths and 4-plus thousand military lost under Bush-Cheney and already Obama is being tagged with future casualties. Clearly, the axis of evil was pro-Bush!

Really, this crap is just sad. Is this the WSJ under Murdoch?

And with Bush pushing the Chamberlain-Hitler line in Israel, to McCain's obvious delight, we see the pre-rationalization for McCain's first promised war.

Not a vast right-wing conspiracy, just the same old, same old from the neocons, who do indeed promise endless war with zero grand strategy attached.

The big story sell gets the hook

ARTICLE: "Pentagon Suspends Briefings For Analysts," by David Barstow, New York Times, 26 April 2008, p. A11.

The PYSOP ends the minute it becomes public. Once people/targets know they've been had, there's little point in continuing it.

Clearly, it was a good deal for the retired officers:

Military analysts have echoed administration talking points, sometimes even when they suspected the information was false or inflated. Several said they had used their special access as a marketing and networking opportunity or as a window into future business possibilities.

Again, nothing wrong with networking, but something definitely wrong about parroting government lines in the media while not disclosing the obvious conflict of interest.

Americans deserve to know when they're being fed "message force multipliers."

Flush with emotion

Drove the 350 miles yesterday from Indy airport to Kohler WI to address Economic Club of Sheboygan at their 45th anniversary dinner, with local industrial titan Herb Kohler Jr. In attendance. Previous speakers constitute a veritable economics Who's Who (Burns, Greenspan, Rivlin, Becker, M. Friedman, Kudlow and so on). Held at the Kohler-built American Club in the Kohler-planned city of Kohler. You see the pattern.

Beautiful town, nice people, fabulous setting, nice dinner, and then go maybe 70 with 20 Q&A.

It was an usually strong stemwinder by me, as I was unexpectedly in top form, given long day and late hour. Also, focusing so much on economics made me a bit darker, not per dampened optimism but rather concern over what comes out of mouths of prez candidates lately.

Anyway, hosts expressed pleasure afterwards, so mission accomplished.

Today I drive back to Indy, going directly to airport.