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Entries from May 1, 2008 - May 31, 2008

2:28AM

This little piggy went 1,500 miles before reaching market

ARTICLE: "Some Carbon With Your Kiwi? The Environmental Cost of Shipping Groceries All Over the World," by Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, 26 April 2008, p. B1.

Yes, there is some taking of coal to Newcastle, like bringing Fiji water to water-rich America. And sure, there is plenty of movement in response to cheap labor.

But here's the deal on climate change: global agricultural production patterns will be dramatically shifted, primarily in response to drought, meaning we're likely to move more food longer distances in the future, not less as a means of reducing a carbon footprint. Specialization of production will proceed apace, just like in any global industry.

2:25AM

The role of women in economic miracles

ARTICLE: Women Rise in Rwanda's Economic Revival, By Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, May 16, 2008; Page A01

Rwanda shows the key role of empowering women with Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢. Economic "miracles" sans oil always involve adding women to the labor pool.

2:23AM

The richer parts always want out

MEMO FROM ...: "Seams of Belgium's Quilt Threaten to Burst," by Steven Erlanger, New York Times, 14 May 2008, p. A11.

As mulitnational unions grow in number and size (these United States being history's first great package), they encourage further "splittism," to use the Chinese term.

I mean, if we're all in the EU already, what's the big deal if Flanders wants to divorce itself from Brussels and Wallonia?

Globalization encourages two opposing trends at the same time: multi-unionism and nation-state fracturing. So it integrates and disintegrates at the same time.

Take that concept, F. Scott Fitzgerald!

12:33PM

Everyone say it with me now

ARTICLE: What would really rebuild Iraq, By Walter Rodgers and Yasmeen Alamiri, Christian Science Monitor, May 14, 2008

Again, jobs are the only exit strategy.

One of my favorite lines from BFA.

12:12PM

Be a little more circumspect with Myanmar, India, China ...

OP-ED: Aid at the Point of a Gun, By ROBERT D. KAPLAN, May 14, 2008

I like this idea right up to the predictable point where he proposes the league of Western democracies using invasion as a threat to prod those valueless local powers (India, China) into blackmailing the junta.

I don't think that sort of pressure works. Gotta create win-wins where local powers get lion's share of acclaim.

To me, that would be real Fifth Generation Warfare: get the effect you want with junta, draw out India and China in ways where they feel like winners, get aid delivered, etc.

Recreating Cold War brinkmanship here is unhelpful. We won't get the outcomes we want and we'll be rightfully accused of politicizing a tragedy--just like the junta.

The true 5G warrior wants the effect, with credit buried.

12:05PM

You made the Skagit Valley Herald!

Tom got this email:

OP-ED: Pentagon lacks concern ABOUT COPTER CASUALTIES, By THOMAS P.M. BARNETT, May 13, 2008

Dr. Barnett, I work with a few folks whose sons are serving over there and I sure would like serious efforts made to bring them in one piece knowing the intense pain their parents would feel if that wasn't the case. So thanks for speaking up!

Please keep up the good work - yes, I disagree with you on many things including Iran (I think we need to either soft-kill them through democratization efforts or if need be let Israel shock n' awe 'em already). But dammit the America I want after 9/11 is a Tony Blair - arguably the John Locke of our time - world that saw 9/11 as a millennial challenge and opportunity to shrink the evil in this world. In fact, I believe in that so much that I uploaded the clip of Tony Blair saying after 9/11 that "The Kladieoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon, they will
resettle again. Before they do, let us reorder this world around us" at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z03T_VwNni0. We simply cannot do that overspending on a Leviathan force and ignoring the fact there is a gap and we are going to have to deal with it comprehensively.

That said, please enjoy Vancouver! One day I will get my fantasy fulfilled and have you speak at Skagit Valley College's McIntyre Hall 2 hours to the south!

Now, Dr. Barnett, I'm going to retreat into the world of Leviathan fantasy and read the latest Dale Brown novel I paid for overnight shipping from Amazon :-). If only the defense budget was as big as Dale Brown's dreams.

Respectfully;

11:49AM

Tom's ideas in naval strategy circles

Tom asked Galrahn about recent references to Tom's work in naval strategy circles. Here's what Galrahn wrote:

There are two primary themes associated with the Maritime Strategy that are directly sourced to Toms work. Both are exampled well in the latest CSBA analysis I sent to Tom before its release.

The first money quote:

Because the United States was no longer constrained by the multi-polar competition of the Oceanic Era or the intense two-way competition of the Transoceanic Era, it was free to wield its substantial diplomatic, economic, and military power against any perceived threat to the advancement of globalization. Indeed, over time, some strategists began to conflate threats to globalization with direct threats to US national security. As one analyst wrote, US political leaders essentially globalized the Monroe Doctrine, which in turn led US national security interests to become broader, more global, and more expansive in scope. In the pursuit of US interests, although Democratic administrations may have emphasized multilateral solutions to a greater degree than Republicans, Bill Clinton’s idea of the United States as the “indispensable nation” was only slightly different from the neoconservatives’ notion of the United States as a benevolent “global hegemon.” Not surprisingly, then, during this early unilateral phase of the global Era, the United States became accustomed to going and getting its way, either without allied support or with “coalitions of the willing” that acquiesced to or supported American-led efforts.

The theme of “disconnectedness from globalization defines danger" is a driving force in the Maritime Strategy discussion. That theme is central to proposals of new initiatives like Global Fleet Stations, Proactive Humanitarian deployments, and regional maritime domain awareness for 'shared pictures.' Basically everything begins with engagement, not "disconnectedness", and the theme has become accepted as a requirement for credible principles and concepts for the peacetime strategy from the Navy POV.

The second money quote:

Given these advantages, the “Sea Services will establish a persistent global presence using distributed forces that are organized by mission.” The concept highlights four key geographical areas in which the Sea Services will be postured. It calls for “combat credible” forces to be continuously deployed in the Western Pacific and Arabian/Persian Gulf, and “increased peacetime activities” in Africa and the Western Hemisphere (Central and South America). Consistent with the concept’s theme of protecting the globalized system, this force posture reflects a shift away from the “functioning core” of globalization, especially North America and Europe, and toward the “non-integrating gap” of globalization that stretches from Central America and the northeastern corner of South America across Africa, into the Indian Ocean and down through the southernmost extension of the East Asian littoral. However, while these four regions merit special attention, the concept makes plain that naval forces can be “selectively and rapidly repositioned to meet contingencies that may arise elsewhere.”

"Core and Gap" is the context for the Maritime Strategy discussion regarding where naval forces will operate. Where core and gap is not specifically cited to Tom, it is either assumed or implied. While there are other themes from Tom's work that enter the discussion, including Sysadmin and Leviathan from blogs (that Eagle1 link that started this discussion is a good example), those two themes cited above are nearly universal for the strategic context behind WHERE the maritime strategy is applied and WHAT the Navy will do.

If strategy is ends, ways, means, and context; PNM became primary source for ways and context, and there is a good argument that it applies to ends as well if like me one considers the mission statement of the Maritime Strategy to be "preventing war is as important as winning wars."

3 points as evidence.

First, the Kaplan "Navy's Flat Earth Strategy" immediately following the Maritime Strategy release was blogged extensively by several dozen. In comments in any number of blogs, Tom's work is cited. Kaplan may have referenced Thomas Friedman, but everyone who read the maritime strategy cited the Kaplan story with the name Thomas PM Barnett. A common commenter reaction I read in a number of places was "Somewhere Dr. Barnett is smiling."

Second. I get PPTs all the time from people who want me to read this or that and blog about it. I don't even know who most of the authors are, they just assume someone higher up is reading the blog based on my blogs traffic or discussions in their circles. I'd say half if not more leverage Tom's work in some obvious way. Note, the authors don't cite Tom's work, nor do they even use the same terminology, but the roots are self-evident (the map has become a religious artifact in any Navy brief that has the word strategy). Thus is the analysis I constantly see from within the Navy.

Third, I'd bet $100 that either you or Tom was contacted about VA Morgans blogger roundtable a couple weeks ago. I'd double or nothing that bet one of you was the first person contacted about the roundtable.

It would take awhile for me to list all the blog posts as more evidence, some are already linked from Tom's blog anyway, and a review of my blog would reveal more if more analysis or research is required. The gist is important though, what is often being called the Maritime Strategic Concept, what the Navy has declassified and called strategy, basically the document establishes ends, ways, and context; and given that I only communicate with naval analysts and aids of Congress, it says a lot that nearly all of them see the source for ways and context as derived directly from Thomas Barnett's work.

Thanks for all of the work, Galrahn. We're hoping to see it in Great Powers, too.

11:42AM

The American Dream

ARTICLE: Indian teenagers chase American baseball dream, Reuters, May 13, 2008

The American Dream is just an expression that says, "we're built to maximize personal happiness--however defined."

Our American System-cum-globalization does the same--plain an simple. That's the point David Brooks missed in his recent "beyond globalization" op-ed. "Blaming" it all on technology is a cop-out. Americans need to own their past and their globalized future.

(Thanks: James Jeansonne)

2:15AM

Globalization is the dominant security agenda

OP-ED: The New Cold War, By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, New York Times, May 14, 2008

Nice piece. Doesn't make me want to change anything I wrote back in early 2005 in the "Mr. President ..." piece for Esquire: we get leverage or Tehran vetoes. Simple as that. Bush & Co. think leverage can be gained militarily and with sanctions.

They continue to be proven wrong.

Still, a bit much to redeploy term "Cold War." Iran isn't "what's next," just "what's left."

That's my problem with Bobbitt's Terror and Consent: terrorism, as I wrote back in both books, isn't "what's next," just "what's left" after superpower rivalry is gone and state-on-state war disappears. There is no sense in making either our foreign policy or our grand strategy terror-centric. It is not the dominant dynamic of our age, or even the dominant security agenda. Globalization is.

Define and defend the positive, and don't confuse "friction" (terror) with "force" (globalization).

In fact, let the force guide and protect you, young padawan!

(Thanks: jarrod myrick)

2:12AM

Check out Steve's post

POST: Moving Beyond Globalization, Enterprise Resilience Management Blog, May 13, 2008

Geat post by Steve on Brooks' piece on globalization. I found Brooks simply to be bowing to a more familiar god--technology. Steve's counter-explanation here is worth perusing.

2:10AM

Structure follows strategy

ARTICLE: Force Structure for Small Wars, by Andrew C. Pavord, Small Wars Journal Blog, May 13, 2008

It's as basic as that.

That's what led me originally to the split force concept.

2:09AM

Iran's big plans on gas make it hard to ignore, much less sanction

ARTICLE: "Shell Drops Iran Gas Deal but May Join in Future," by Benoit Faucon, Wall Street Journal, 12 May 2008, p. B4.

Why does Shell refuse to rule out joining the big deal later?

Iran is #2 worldwide after Russia on natural gas known reserves.

Hard to ignore.

2:07AM

Small steps matter in Gulf

ARTS, BRIEFLY: "Unusual Concert For Saudi Arabia," compiled by Lawrence Van Gelder, New York Times, 5 May 2008, p. B2.

"Groundbreaking concert" in Saudi Arabia: German quartet plays classical music in front of a mixed-gender audience in public setting (a gov-run theater in Riyadh).

Female pianist wore "long green top and black trousers," but no abaya.

Paying attention ...

2:06AM

Get used to this headline with China

ARTICLE: "China to Make Jumbo Jetliners, Trim Roles of Boeing, Airbus," by AP, Wall Street Journal, 10-11 May 2008, p. B4.

This is why I say you'll end up seeing new hyphenated behemoths in coming years with an Asian name either fore or aft.

2:02AM

Urbanization yields globalization yields rising income yields more food demand yields bigger farms yields more migration to cities yields ...

ARTICLE: "In Ukraine, Mavericks Gamble On Scarce Land," by John W. Miller, Wall Street Journal, 12 May 2008, p. A1.

Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan have between them an untilled Idaho's worth of good farmland. Trick is unifying small plots, something China too works. All three expect higher future yields, thanks to global warming, so real opportunity.

But key to driving underemployed off land is to have better life (meaning jobs) waiting for them in cities.

That means joining globalization's rising "network trade" (intra-corporate buyer/producer chains).

So rising food needs only feed globalization's structural dynamics.

This is why, in my mind, Deng was Man of the 20th century, not Einstein, as Time claimed. (though I'd still say American G.I. is logical composite MOTC.

World acreage sits at 37b, of which 3.51b currently arable, up a smidge from 1991 total of 3.49b. Of that total, U.S. has 432m, China with 350m, Brazil with 146m, and Russia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan with 437m.

Assuming these are top nations, it's interesting that it's U.S. plus all New Core. By look of map, India's got to be close to Brazil total, making it America + BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India and China].

11:34AM

Realistic outcomes from the Beijing Games

ARTICLE: "Beyond the 'genocide Olympics': As the row over corporate sponsorship of the Beijing Olympics shows, firms are increasingly expected to take a lead in promoting human rights," The Economist, 26 April 2008, p. 81.

ARTICLE: "Building on the Games: China's impressive facilities are turning heads and laying the groundwork for global construction deals," by Charlotte Li, BusinessWeek, 5 May 2008, p. 048.

The local fuss over the French retailer Carrefour because of the anti-Chinese protests in France is somewhat over-reported. Yes, Carrefour catches some heat in China, but its sales, by all accounts, don't really drop off. So I guess it's a case of having your cake and protesting about it too.

Here's the part I found interesting:

Chinese firms are slowly becoming more sensitive to human rights, says Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, chairman of Anglo American, a mining giant, and a veteran advocate of businesses promoting human rights. Rather than criticism, says Sir Mark, Chinese bosses respond far better to patient explanations that older multinationals became supporters of human rights because they learnt to their cost that when those rights are ignored, bad things happen. "I tell them that there is now a whole culture of multi-stakeholder designed initiatives that are helpful, and can stop you getting in trouble in five years' time," he says. Despite the Chinese government's many failings, its promotion of the "harmonious society" is taken seriously by Chinese bosses, says Sir Mark. Invoke this term, he says, and they get the message.

Great stuff, proving that it's typically the businessperson who makes the real necessary change happen, if we can just be patient enough.

Second story just points out another facet of the Olympics showcase effect for China: winning construction contracts.

As I have said before, China's Olympics will be a mixed bag: huge success of Games and medal count, but also lotsa stories on human rights and horrible pollution. The Chinese will emerge with pride ballooned but also significant embarrassment over environmental damage and lack of political freedom.

So long as we don't rub it in, the Chinese people themselves will get all the necessary messages for positive legacy effects to emerge down the road.

10:45AM

Give me your rich, northern states . . .

ARTICLE: "North and south: Why can't its stagnant southern states catch up with the rest of Mexico?" The Economist, 26 April 2008, p. 53.

The northern states of the United States of Mexico (actual name) grow far more rapido than the southern ones, and logically feature much smaller percentages of people living in poverty.

No surprise. The northern states have basically joined the United States (our official name does not include "of America") economically, but not politically.

Naturally, Mexico is divided politically too..

Eventually, the logic of expanded U.S. membership will win out. Mexico, after all, gave us plenty of states in the past.

10:43AM

The more American company

ARTICLE: "IBM vs. Tata: Which is More American?" by Steve Hamm, BusinessWeek, 5 May 2008, p. 028.

Tata Consultancy Services makes most of its money "in" the United States (51%), while Big Blue makes most of its money overseas (65%).

Tata builds on clients in the U.S. and U.K., while IBM is focusing more and more on emerging and frontier economies.

4:38AM

Email re: this week's column

Tom got this email in reply to this week's column:

I enjoyed your review of Messrs. Zakaria's and Kagan's new books, but as a population biologist and former professor of environmental sciences, I am dubious about your apparent conclusion that we seem to be moving into a new world of economic competition, stabilized by enlightened self-interest, both socially and (presumably) environmentally. I believe that perhaps the entire world (as opposed to a specific region) may never have confronted a threat similar to that posed by the young Russian and Chinese professional classes, and perhaps soon, the Indians, regarding their extremely profligate and highly energy consuming life styles, involving their transportation (all over the world), the regulation of their working and residential environments, their recreation, and their truly expensive (both for them and everyone else) tastes. Although I have not yet read Zakaria's and Kagan's books, I suspect they've not spent a great deal of time on this problem. If I am wrong, I would appreciate your apprising us of this in a future column - in fact, I would be absolutely delighted to be shown that my concern has no basis.

Tom writes:

We did the whole package here about 150 years ago and simply modulated as we advanced in response to costs realized and recognized. Same will happen globally, forcing ever more change. This willl happen amidst many calm predictions of gloom from many scientists--both hard and soft but almost always aging--who fundamentally mistrust and/or underestimate humanity, having seen enough of life to grow suspicious and being convinced that the next generation (unlike their own once was) won't be up to the challenges--never mind those nefarious businessmen and politicians!

Marx was just one of countless who once discounted the capacity for human systems to adapt for the better. But this is nothing new. Scientists of every age going back to the beginnings of science have consistently come to the conclusion, in their collective wisdom, that THIS time we're totally screwed and there's no chance that humanity, absent firm guidance from rational minds (such as their own), will manage to survive.

And life goes on because humans are infinitely clever, leaving behind one age's conventional wisdom and creating something better..

This emerging global system is no accident. It arises in the same way these states uniting once arose, largely because this is the global dynamic we set in motion.

So people will arise, as will new thinking and technology and rules once rose here and continue to do so.

And adaptation will prevail.

You will say, "But I am unconvinced!"

That's okay. It's not necessary that all be convinced, just enough.

The Russians, Chinese and Indians aren't just a new collections of fools. They will no more drive humanity off a cliff than we did. With 3 billion new capitalists come 3 billion new answers.

Many will only see needs and demands. Some will see innovation and vision.

One point history makes clear: when markets are allowed to operate, efficiencies emerge. When markets are prevented or perverted (like in the socialist bloc), disaster triumphs.

The demands unleashed cannot be fulfilled absent markets, where non-linear solutions will emerge.

Or we might assume that our journey, up to now, was uniquely favored and thus we're collectively doomed, having turned on "those people" to a system they'll never be able to master as we did, much less improve.

I just believe ingenuity is inexhaustible, as well as colorblind.

But I do expect doom-and-gloom predictions to explode in quantity in coming years. I receive them constantly from aging profs and professionals.

Never any youmg ones, though. I suppose they would consider such emails too fatalistic, thank God.

2:00AM

This week's column

Is liberty defined more by politics or economics?

While America remains the world's sole superpower, numerous rising great powers re-grade the global landscape, making it flatter than it's been at any time since the early 20th century. Some experts naturally expect we'll face all the same strategic challenges of that age, including great power war, while others are more sanguine, judging this era's dynamics to be quite different.

Two new books by political commentator Robert Kagan and journalist Fareed Zakaria provide a nice contrast along these lines.

Read on at Scripps Howard.
Read on at KnoxNews.