Monday, May 5, 2008 at 2:22AM ARTICLE: Zimbabwean farmers swap troubles to fight drugs in Afghanistan, By Nick Meo, The Times, April 21, 2008
Fascinating. When you actually consider global resources for your global counterinsurgency, you find it has all been done somewhere before.
(Thanks: Michael Griffin)
Monday, May 5, 2008 at 2:10AM ARTICLE: After America: Is the West being overtaken by the rest?, by Ian Buruma, The New Yorker, April 21, 2008
I like Ian Buruma a lot. His Occidentalism book was truly superb. I think his review here is great.
I will, however, still need to peruse all three volumes.
For my purposes, the Zakaria and Kagan books are great inputs for Great Powers: Zakaria's argument nicely beats back the "we're-doomed-to-be-just-like-Great-Britain" argument and Kagan's lays out the full-throated neocon view of "let's-take-'em-all-on."
(Thanks: Florian Widder)
Sunday, May 4, 2008 at 8:10AM ARTICLE: "10 Questions for Newt Gingrich," By Mark Helperin, Time, 5 May 2008, p. 2.
Key quote:
I think Senator Hillary Clinton has a lower ceiling and a higher floor. She probably can't get much above 53% or 54% [of the vote], and she probably can't drop much below 47%. Senator Barack Obama is a bigger gamble for the Democrats. He could be a unifying national leader. He could collapse as well.
The word I get on Obama is that the serious dirt is yet to be revealed and is being saved by the GOP for the general election. You toss in strikes on Iran and that's a good package for getting a win for the GOP in the White House. To stop Americans from reaching for the familiar split (one party runs Congress, one the presidency), you have defeat McCain directly, not just Bush and the GOP. All polls point to that reality.
So the match-up on McCain is everything--if the Dems actually want to win.
Long contest ahead and many things can happen, but that's my best judgment when forced to pull a lever now.
Sunday, May 4, 2008 at 1:49AM Hillary Clinton, the least potential downside
In a previous column I registered my joy in finally participating in a presidential primary that would matter, but as Indiana's vote draws near, I find myself more uncertain than ever. I must admit that -- as usual -- it strikes me as a choice between lesser evils.
As a conservative Democrat, I see enough in John McCain to give him serious consideration come November. But there are strong reservations too.
Read on at Scripps Howard.
Read on at KnoxNews.
Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:02AM POST: Tour de France (6) -- An Applauded Army About to be Downsized, By Joris Janssen Lok, Ares, 4/17/2008 4:52 PM CDT
Here's where our limited success in articulating a grand strategy that says, "Our Leviathan/SysAdmin force allows for connectivity at various stages along the conflict spectrum, and you (here, France) complete us here," can haunt us. A France that doesn't see its military contribution recognized and appreciated by the Core as a whole can choose to lose that capability, and once lost, end up being de facto "retired" from that tier of activity, meaning we degrade the Core's overall capacity for SysAdmin the longer we signal we're good at the first half but the second half is too complex and too hard for us or any combination of us and them.
That's why to me, it's use it (SysAdmin) or lose it (both the Core's aggregate SysAdmin capacity and our own self-deterred Leviathan).
In short, time is not on our side.
Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:13AM Subtitle is "the story of ancient empires, modern states, and the quest for a global nation."
Talk about a reach that stretches the limit of a book! (And most reviews state as much.)
Like how he calls America a "postimperial multinational state" and refers to pre-American role in world as "the imperial millennia."
Bush is "a consequential aberration," meaning he didn't repeat the implied brilliance of the Clinton years.
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 8:29AM Four flights on Monday (starting at 0600 and ending at 0030), two more on Tuesday (Montreal to Dulles to RDU), and two more Wednesday (RDU to Charlotte [my second home] to Indy. Only one truly big jet, and there I did get the upgrade.
Spoke Tuesday morning to about 80-100 senior executives of the helicopter industry of North America (their big international annual conference). Then toured the convention floor with my hosts. Saw some way-cool new technology.
Spoke today to another class of U.S. Government mid-career types (all agencies seemingly represented) down at UNC school (defense and business—a natch for me). Maybe 50 total. Went two hours and then maybe 45 more select Q&A.
In all, about 7 hours of public speaking to maybe 175-200 execs and senior bureaucrats/officers. I am talked out.
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 3:56AM ARTICLE: “In Search of . . . Something: A growing number of Chinese, unmoored by rapid change, are finding answers in religion,” by Jason Dean and Loretta Chao, Wall Street Journal, 12-13 April 2008, p. R4.
Killer bit:
“When China opened up … many of us believed that the market would save China, and let China become stronger and more civilized,” says Zhao Xiao, a Beijing-based economist who writes frequently about religion and morality. “And they were right in a way, because people became successful,” he says. “But the market isn’t perfect . . . It stimulates greed and arouses desires.”
As a consequence, says Mr. Zhao, “China is going through a new transformation. This transformation will be the most profound for China—far more important than the superficial changes in wealth.”
Bingo!
I had clipped the article just after I wrote the religion section of Chapter 11. Too perfect for words.
Yes, religion is important during hard times, but it’s even more important during boom times. Religion matters most when change comes fastest.
The search is “surprisingly broad,” we are told.
Not so. China’s always allowed competition among religions. More religions are globalized now, so more offerings, but the fundamental dynamic was always there, just eliminated during the Maoist madness. For now, China recognizes five approved religions: Buddhism, Taoism, Islam, Protestantism and Catholicism.
Zhao wrote a piece and posted it on the web: “Market Economies With Churches, and Market Economies Without Churches.” It’s a direct U.S.-China comparison that says we do better because our religions allow for a stronger moral foundation.
Honestly, we want multiparty democracy ASAP, but everything’s falling into place in China quite nicely.
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 2:10AM Subtitle is "reviving faith and politics in a post-religious right America," and I find that a bit much. If you're going to crank on the new "great awakening," then why get all pissy on the religious right like it's some straw man we must defeat?
Wallis sees four true previous GAs:
1) 1730s-1740s contributing to revolution
2) 1800-1830 that contributes to Civil War through abolition movement (highly religious)
3) latter half of 19th and early 20th century that yields Progressive Era and fields a prez candidate directly in William Jennings Bryan
4) African-American churches in 1950s and 1960s that leads to Civil Rights movement.
Again, I don't see how you cast one now and somehow cut off what's come before by targeting the religious right in this country. That seems unfair and unhistoric.
I do like the last bit in the book on "nonviolent realism" (SysAdmin anyone?) as filler between extremes of "liberal pacifism" and "conservative combat" (although those terms suck).
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 2:09AM Subtitle is "the race to reinvent energy and stop global warming."
What I like are the following bits:
1) the notion that the changes ahead will naturally and inevitably constitute "a wholesale transformation of the world economy and the way people live," and
2) that this transformation "will almost certainly create the great fortunes of the twenty-first century" (the how I get rich and finally join the "superclass" part!).
I mean it. What the hell. Who wants to transform the world and get poor as a reward?
More seriously, the larger point is that we're heading into a period of great and powerful forces: "great powers" that obliterate our old understanding of that term (more on that later).
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 2:08AM Subtitle is "the global power elite and the world they are making."
6,000 people actually run the entire world, and Rothkopf's got a list!
Here's the "how to" part if you want to join:
1) be a man
2) be a Boomer
3) be a European or of European descent (so now we're up to white Boomer males)
4) go to elite school
5) go into biz or finance
6) have an institutional power base
7) get rich
8) be lucky
I'm a man, technically a Boomer, Scot-Irish, Harvard PhD, in biz with Enterra and we work finance, maybe I call Esquire my power base (along with column) and I'm definitely a lucky guy—just not a rich one yet.
Too bad the book didn't come with an application card you could fill out.
As a book trying to present a sense of the future, this one is typical: a snapshot of now that reflects the past more than the future.
Friday, May 2, 2008 at 2:07AM Subtitle is "the future of the Middle East."
Great bit on "pyjamahedeen."
Also like the "peaceful empowerment" logic that is taking root and threatening the old order in the region.
Key quote:
Impatience and frustration, fueled by education, technology and the miracle of instant media, demographics, globalization, and change elsewhere in the world have altered the equation.
Notice how she doesn't cite oil, U.S. military presence, Iraq or Israel as the big causes?
It's the difference between proximate excuses and ultimate causes.
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 2:19AM [This post was written April 17]
Left Monday afternoon out of Indy through Philly to Amsterdam overnight on US Airways. Did the whole thing on frequent flier miles, but found myself bounced out of first class upgrade I had bought for $500. Worked out okay, because they were embarrassed at mix-up and insisted I take whole inner row of three seats (almost long enough, so I slept 2-3 hours).
Spent whole trip over reviewing books for next chapter on grand strategy (the "how to").
Arrive in Amsterdam at 0830 Tuesday. Taxi arranged takes me to Hotel de Filosoof (very quaint and filosoofical). I work the clothes and the brief and do some Mac cleaning. Then I crash in bed for additional hour.
Up at 1100, shower and dress and met downstairs by hosts (younger man and woman just out of grad school). They are seniors at deBalie, a sort of hip, Council on Foreign Relations place that's youth oriented, and has a clubhouse atmosphere (bar, movie theater, etc.), but serious ambition and serious ability to attract real names (Steven Coll next month, Kaplan every book he does).
We catch train out of city to The Hague (administrative capital, or seat of government, while Amsterdam is capital, or where the monarchs still reside), and then check into the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Bit of drill on security but not too bad.
We met some seniors there and then set up for lunch-time brief and discussion. It was by-invite only, so limited to about twenty in all. I go 60 on brief and we do 60 in discussion. High-level and high-talent bunch, so it was warp speed. Lots of fun for me, obviously.
Then we train back to Amsterdam and head to deBalie, a big old building that used to be a hall of justice. I keep up the coffee and then run through drill: 1) photo shoot with photographer of daily newspaper outside; 2) back in for lengthy interview with correspondent from same; 3) then back outside with different photographer (I must have had my face or profile shot about 100 times, which seemed a bit much, but you know photographers with digital cameras); 4) then back in to check out the theater where I am set to speak on panel that night with MFA official and British Sinologist.
Then to special room for long dinner with those two and a bunch of MFA seniors and deBalie seniors. Then some of the usual fussing on audio-visual (my mania). Their clicker sucks (huge delay) and the PC is up in the projector room high above. I sub my own clicker and it doesn't work. Then I add extension cord and it works okay, although it got sticky on tougher graphics (PC speed).
The show begins at 8pm. I go first and go about 20, I imagine, going over by 10. Then MFA senior lady does a solid 15 (she was last-minute replacement but really great). Then Brit (Andrew Small or maybe Smaller, as I blur on memory) does 15-20 on China and U.S. relations and totally blows me away. I don't think I've ever heard anyone speak so intelligently on China. Definitely getting a column out of that.
Then crowd is shown special art film commissioned by deBalie (former Israeli soldier now working in Weimar as performance artist—go figure). Then 20-minute break when I get a nice beer with coupon at bar and chat up the Brit and MFA lady (both, again, superb thinkers and speakers, so I'm pretty buzzed). Then we go Q&A with audience from 2130 to 2230, so a late night. Then hot conversation at bar 'til midnight. Then 15-minute walk through downtown to check out canals and buildings and architecture with Brit and deBalie host (very fun, as the place is truly beautiful at night, and still hopping on a Tuesday night).
Then pack up, hit the hay at 0100, and up at 0800 for 0900 taxi and fly out at 1100. On plane I get first class as thank-you and since same crew, I get a lot of guilty special care. I finish organizing notes for chapter and plan out. Also watch "Juno" (fabulous, and she really did deserve the Oscar nom), "Heartbreak Kid" (Stiller and dad in Farrelly brothers comedy—I laughed throughout), and "Mr. Woodcock" (hysterical). Tried "Martian" something or other kid movie with John Cusack as novelist adopting weird boy, but gave up and watched a bunch of "American Gangster" (my man Ridley) until we landed early in Philly, which got my hopes up of earlier flight home.
But Customs doesn't open to 1300 and so we sit on plane for 45 minutes. I'm first guy through everything, then dash to connecting flights desk and get standby on 1355 flight. Then run from A through F at Philly (don't try) and that's a good 40 minutes of dashing and two security checks (wonderful). I get nothing for the effort, as the seats are all gone by the time I get there (probably never there to begin with, since it was overbooked).
At that point I'm feeling tapped. I have triple-shot latte (no effect) and then book shop and then pick up copy of Good magazine (exciting to see!) and then start blogging up a series. As planned, catch 1805 flight to Indy, getting home around 2100.
That was one blur of a trip, but couldn't beat the access or venue. The grand strategist must network!
Oh, in Philly airport on way over I talk by phone to Neil Nyren and I think we've got the final title [Great Powers: America & the World After Bush]. It will surprise people but I like it a lot. This is a term (main title) that I want to redefine with the book. I'll need to weave it in a bit during the edit (now that we have it), but it makes the preface easy to write, and Neil's big on prefaces to grab the reader. I tried it out extensively with people on this trip, and I could feel myself practicing/reaching for the sound bites you end up using in media interviews upon launching.
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 2:16AM Subtitle is "a journey through the global criminal underworld."
Glenny says when you add up all the estimates, that global crime is 15-20 percent of global GDP. This is the biggest estimate out there, and by definition, I tend to doubt it, because the ones who push these calculations most are always trying to move product with the fear factor.
The future of the criminal underworld is the final chapter and it's all about China.
Thing about this is that that "future" tends to feature a new player every generation, and the player always hails from a region just connecting up big time to globalization. Twenty years ago it was all about the Russian mafia. Go back in 20-year increments and you'll find a new going-to-run-the-world! player each time.
And of course they're always superseded, just like they are inside the United States over various waves of immigrants. Whoever's the big wave equals the new scary gang/mafia factor.
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 2:15AM Klare is the leader of the resource wars academic crowd. No one mines and re-mines that field more.
Cool stats: by 2030, China and U.S. combined equal 41% of global GDP, 39% of total energy use, and 45% of CO2 emissions.
But in this book, even Klare ends with a note about China and the U.S. shifting slowly from competition (not so bad and hardly "war") to cooperation.
His three key cooperation areas for the future: "accelerating the development of petroleum alternatives, promoting a resource-efficient industrial transformation, and developing environmentally safe uses for coal."
Clearly, Lovins got to him.
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 2:13AM ARTICLE: "Sacrificed To the Surge: Tribal fighters have cut down Iraq's violence. But they're subjecting women to often-medieval mores," by Silvia Spring and Larry Kaplow, Newsweek, 14 April 2008, p. 30.
Depressing stuff. The more we rely on the classic Sunni brutes, the more the stability reinforces age-old restrictions on females in social and economic life.
The classic: man cheats on wife and wife kills husband, then she's a murderer. Reverse the sexes and the widowed husband gets away with defending his "honor" through murder.
This is an uncomfortable reality. The only way you can change it organically is through economic connectivity. Make the men realize they lose money by keeping women down. That's the only way to get them to change on their own. Keep the pie limited and men will feel the right and inherent need to rule over women.
Only greed trumps tradition.
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 2:10AM This took place quite a while ago (if I remember correctly).
The opening about Tom:
Federal 'Department of Everything Else' Draws Fire, By Evan Moore, CNSNews.com, April 28, 2008
(CNSNews.com) - America's efforts at stabilizing failing regimes and promoting the spread of democracy would improve if an agency were created to foster a culture of nation-building in the U.S. government itself, according to a leading foreign policy expert. Critics, however, dismiss the idea as unnecessary and an unwanted step towards creating a "colonialism" office.
The office in question was coined the "Department of Everything Else" by Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, author of the "Pentagon's New Map" books.
In an interview with Cybercast News Service, Barnett said the proposed new department "would cover the process of getting states from failure to functioning, from instability to stability, from disconnectedness to connectedness, from war to peace, and transition them from what I have dubbed globalization's 'non-integrating gap' (where the wild things are) to its 'functioning core.'"
The idea was introduced "because Defense can't do it alone and State can't do it at all," said Barnett. "(We)need someone to cover the middle ground. ... Until we create a bureaucratic center of gravity for that role, we will continue to vastly underperform and thus attract few, if any, allies to future projects. That'll needlessly cost America lives in future interventions, just like it has for years in Iraq before the counter-insurgency strategy was finally allowed to emerge by the Bush administration."
Barnett concluded: "This problem will not be inter-agency'd away. ... It's a big enough task to warrant its own department. Until we show we're serious, no one will take us seriously."
The U.S. government already has an office committed to nearly the same function as the one envisioned by Barnett. The State Department's Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (S/CRS) was created in August 2004 to provide experts from the government and private sector to nations that have recently experienced a conflict.
