China's earthquake turning out to be a legitimate System Perturbation
Friday, May 23, 2008 at 2:10AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: "In Departure, China Invites Outside Help," by Howard W. French and Edward Wong, New York Times, 16 May 2008, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "China to Allow Foreign Help as Death Toll Is Raised: More Than 50,000 May Have Perished; Appeal for Shovels," by James T. Areddy and Miho Inada, Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2008, p. A6.

ARTICLE: "First Foreign Rescue Team in China Faces Delays," by Hiroko Tabuchi, Wall Street Journal, 17-18 May 2008, p. A6.

ARTICLE: "China seizes moment to heal its image," by Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, 19 May 2008, p. 6.

The Chinese accept equipment and relief experts "from neighbors it has long shunned as rivals or renegades," according to the top NYT story.

This is indeed shaping up as a bit of System Perturbation, which seem to arrive with harmonic regularity for China: SARS, avian flu, Olympic torch, and now the quake. The Japanese send a bunch of recovery experts, the first outsiders accepted during this crisis and "one of the few relief missions China has ever accepted from abroad." Even Taiwan's team is accepted.

All this after Wen takes charge and 130k PLA troops are mobilized to the epicenter.

No doubt, as I noted in a previous blog, China uses this opportunity to soften its image in the run-up to the Olympics. Cynical to say, but the quake's timing was perfect.

Still, there was a certain pokiness resulting from pride. It always happens. Happened here with Katrina and in Japan in the '95 quake.

But still, for China as it emerges, this was a relatively rapid about-face, reflecting a pragmatism that is attractive. After all, Japan and Taiwan are two of the most seismically active places on the planet, so—of course—you take their help. Hell, if Beijing is smart, this event sets the stage for permanent trilateral cooperation on the subject.

And if America is smart, we seek not only to encourage that sort of cooperation, we join it as well.

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