The usual Gap response, the usual Core opportunity
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 2:27AM ARTICLE: "Myanmar Sets Hurdles to Aid and Exludes U.S.: U.N. Relief Limited, Other Help Spurned; Disease Fears Spread," by Tom Wright and Patrick Barta, Wall Street Journal, 9 May 2008, p. A10.
OP-ED: "A Silver Lining For Burma?" by Maureen Aung-Thwin, Wall Street Journal, 9 May 2008, p. A17.
The junta, just like Kim in North Korea, fears that an influx of foreigners will destabilize their rule, so aid is refused, delayed and limited. As the death role rises, the external pressure only grows.
An opportunity for China to step up and impress, but I'm not hearing about or seeing any leadership there (am I missing something?).
Aung-Thwin brings up the Aceh example as something the junta naturally fears: the former rebel leader invited to peace talks and now he's the duly elected head of Aceh. The Christmas Tsunamis of 2004 broke that logjam--very old. Could the Cyclone Nargis do something similar in Myanmar?
This is the fear. So long as the junta keeps the country largely disconnected, their rule appears secure. But when the cyclone creates such super-disconnect, the local dictators risk losing their centralized control out of the need for outside help and the "dangerous" connectivity it brings.
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