Triangulating Brazil

OPINION: "Brazil Steers an Independent Course," by Susan Kaufman Purcell, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

The usual straw man-ing that says a rising power must exhibit interests and behavior identical to that of America's--lest we be stunningly disappointed! ("You're saying we don't see eye-to-eye! OMG!").

So we find that Brazil sometimes supports regimes we like and sometimes tries to make their existence more complicated. Ditto inconsistency re: regimes we hate.

Well, when America gets universal interests instead of our usual national ones, I'll expect the rest of the planet to do the same.

Walmart rationalizing supply chains; world quakes in response

FRONT PAGE: "Walmart takes aim at supply chain cost: Drive to increase global purchasing; Retailer seeks to cut supplier companies," by Jonathan Birchall, Financial Times, 4 January 2010.

Best to check out my partner Steve DeAngelis's blog post on this article, which really caught my eye, especially the stuff about how Walmart intends to rationalize its purchasing of food (the usual Protestant Reformation of cutting out middlemen and seeking a direct relationship with producers).

Locals will naturally decry the death of middlemen, who add nothing but cost and waste and complexity, but this sort of manufacturer-to-retailer bonding will define the next great wave of globalization's tightening up.

Why? Because there's such immense inefficiency there to root out.

A truly clear sign of a regime's death throes

FRONT PAGE: "Regime Wages a Quiet War on 'Star Students' of Iran," by Farnaz Fassihi, Wall Street Journal, 31 December 2009.

There have been numerous signs for years: the brain drain, considered to be the worst in the world (according to the World Bank); the odd influx of Iranian prostitutes in nearby Europe (when you sell your women--automatic bad sign); the capital and entrepreneurial flight (often just across the Gulf); and the most stunning of all being the precipitous drop in birth rate.

In short, people have been voting with their feet and wallets and . . . for quite some time. They're so unhappy that they're just withdrawing from life there.

And now we get this truly sick sign: the targeting of star students, with "stars" earned for any activity that suggests an independent mind. Naturally, these are the same young people who'd normally win--and do win--the typical stars as top students. So what the new military dictatorship is telling the youth amounts to this: if you have a brain and any ambition, forget about a career here. Frankly, forget about any semblance of a normal life too.

So, no surprise: top students are routinely pulled to the side of the career road and placed in permanent suspension.

The star treatment details:

• one star = watch list (student may enter school after signing doc pledging to abstain from any political or social activism

• suspension and often interrogation by Intell Ministry; letter often has to be filed with Ministry swearing off all activism of any sort

• lifetime ban on higher education if you might have worked for opposition candidacies or participated in demonstrations.

Imagine the regime that bans a best & brightest from education for life.

Then remember that 60% of Iran's 75 million citizens are under age 30--meaning born after the great revolution.

This is the classic long-in-the-tooth problem of revolutions: getting the subsequent generations to shut their mouths, much less care about ideals that have long since passed into oblivion.

Easy to be against 'privatized' security

EDITORIAL: Privatized War, and Its Price, New York Times, January 10, 2010

Free-lance is misleading. Everybody with a gun is attached to somebody, otherwise they wouldn't be "privatized" security.

You can say you'll address the issue, but unless you obviate the underlying demand function, that's just talk.

Good practice for the next one

ARTICLE: Flu pandemic could be mild, By Rob Stein, Washington Post, December 8, 2009

Nice to hear. It means H1N1 ends up being more Y2K than TEOTWAWKI.

But drills, as I noted many times, are always welcome.

Obivous and necessary

ARTICLE: Contractor hirings in Afghanistan to emphasize locals, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, December 7, 2009

Kind of a "duh"! But glad to finally see.

A little hope on NATO's role

ARTICLE: NATO allies pledge 7,000 more troops for Afghanistan mission, By Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, December 5, 2009

Props to Clinton for getting 7k troops out of NATO, when all predictions were for 5k or less.

Gives one hope.

Fuzzy start, fuzzy end

ARTICLE: Gates: 'No deadlines' on troop withdrawal, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, December 4, 2009

Can't get any more clear than that: our withdrawals may begin in the summer of 2011, but 2-3 years naturally involved, and there's no drop-dead date for the complete withdrawal.

Gates is no dummy: this is the core of his bet on shifting the U.S. military to SysAdmin capabilities.

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear

ARTICLE: Peru ratifies free trade deal with China, AFP, Dec 6, 2009

The key bits:

The deal will lead to the gradual removal of tariffs on more than 90 percent of goods ranging from Chinese electronic products and machinery to Peruvian fishmeal and minerals, Xinhua news agency said when the pact was signed.

Under the deal, the two nations also pledged to further open their service sectors and offer favorable treatment to investors.

China has become mineral-rich Peru's second largest trading partner after the United States.

Peru is a major producer of lead, zinc, copper, tin and gold.

Common theme in Latin America: U.S. still #1 trade partner, but suddenly--out of nowhere--China is number two with minerals as the key draw.

(Thanks: VacationLaneGrp)

Case of NorKo's rapid collapse

OPINION: "Contemplating Korean Reunification," by Peter M. Beck, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

Anything from a bloodless German quickie to a very bloody Vietnam-like process (not sure who'd be integrating whom on that last one). In between is a nice Romanian type collapse (very Marxist, actually--just in the wrong direction).

Cost estimates run from $50B (RAND) to $1.5T (Credit Suisse). This guy says $2-5T, because you'd need, for political reasons, to rapidly raise Northern income levels from 5% of South Korea's to something like 80%.

Frankly, I think that estimate is nutty. I think the Chinese have a reasonable dream when they talk about fattening up the prisoner for a while before opening up the prison. I just think the Chinese are doing nothing of the sort and rather prefer to exploit the slave labor while they can, raping the country of its mineral resources.

Me? Even in a collapse I'd see the West and East sharing the burden of keeping the state intact for quite a while before reunification would be attempted in full--a serious transition period. So the cost would be spread out vice paid in one fantastic lump sum.

Retail's "Big Show"

National Retail Federation's 99th annual convention, Jacob Javits Center, NYC.

Speaking today with DeAngelis at IBM's shadow convention.

Globalization's Next Wave of Integration

Thanks to the recent global financial crisis, we've heard much talk about the coming "de-globalization," defined by some as the reversal of the now decades-long push to further integrate trade among national economies by disintegrating production and spreading its means across the planet to the cheapest sources. In the past, all forms of growing supply chain connectivity could be justified on price, buttressed by just-in-time delivery capacity. But the market woes of the last year-and-a-half supposedly threw all that logic into question.

Continue reading this week's New Rules column at WPR.

The capacity/casualty shift from Iraq to Afghanistan

WORLD NEWS: "US claims Iraq milestone after month with no fatalities," by Michael Hastings, Financial Times, 2-3 January 2010.

THE YEAR IN BRIEFING: "#3| Afghanistan: A Looming Quagmire?" by Adam Ferguson, Time, 28 December 2009-4 January 2010.

Essential truth I've been stating going back to before PNM: when casualties get really low, the "controversy" over overseas interventions disappears. Few call them occupations, much less wars. Instead, they become "stationing"--as in, we've keep troops stationed in Germany and Japan.

Naturally, all our fears and hopes shift to Afghanistan, where the MSM unimaginatively retreads all the "quagmire" arguments from Vietnam-cum-Somalia-cum-Iraq.

When will the "quagmire" in Afghanistan end? When the casualties get low enough that the "war" drops below the media's--and the public's--radar relative to other things we fear more.

What do you call a war without enough U.S. casualties? You can it a contingency operation--or normal business for the U.S. military stretching back two solid decades.

The shrinking pool of insiders in Iran

WORLD NEWS: "Turmoil in Iran: Political 'leprosy' takes toll on regime; The opposition is led by politicians who were 'insiders' just six months ago," by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 2-3 January 2009.

FRONT PAGE: "Opposition chief in Iran ready for martyrdom," by Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times, 2-3 January 2010.

This substantial migration from the ranks of insiders to outsiders is amazing--a big sign of profound change on the horizon. The only way the Supreme Leader keeps some semblance of control is to concentrate it and--essentially--hand it over to the Revolutionary Guard tightly arrayed around him, meaning he continues his "absolute control" over less and less of the population, only to see the bulk of his power "translated" by others as they see fit for their personal survival and enrichment. The puppeteering has truly begun.

Meanwhile, big leaders on the opposition side are moving toward public statements of martyrdom willingly embraced. Strong and courageous stuff.

The usual political dynamics on attempted healthcare reform

IN THE ARENA: "Village idiots: The left is attacking health care reform as a sellout--and helping right-wing populists in the process," by Joe Klein, Time, 11 January 2010.

The subheader says it all: we all know we need something better, but better to sabotage any good-faith effort in that direction, so we can continue complaining and decrying the lack of political leadership.

McCain is being particularly courageous in this regard--quite the maverick!

Me? I'll take a sloppy compromise here and continued future efforts to smooth it out over yet another do-nothing session of Congress--the true legacy of Boomer politicians.

But, then again, I like that half a loaf.

King of the weeds: The Islamist threat still rules

DECADE OF DISRUPTION: "Islamist threat remains top concern," by Daniel Domboy, Financial Times, 28 December 2009.

Wow! That does describe a decade "from hell."

I mean, working in the DoD back in 2000, I remember most experts rating radical Islam somewhere in the upper half of threats, with nuclear proliferation typically numero two after "rising" China.

Now, a decade later, we still have our freak-out artists on China and nukes (two more states--bringing us to ten and guaranteeing "40 or so nuclear powers any day now!"), and radical Islam, thanks to 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan, has moved into the top spot.

Talk about the victory of the lesser-includeds.

If you had come to me in 2000 and said, ten years from now our biggest fears would be terrorists with nukes, I would have bought that future in a heartbeat as the best possible leftovers we could hope for.

But, of course, we live in the most dangerous era known to man!!!!!!! Because SOMEBODY could blow a NUKE off someday!

Then it would be . . . like . . . THE DAY AFTER! (just with virtually the entire planet and world population completely untouched, but other than that, EXACTLY LIKE "THE DAY AFTER"!!!!!!!!!!!).

Scary times, indeed. Unprecedented really, unless you count the last strangely quiet years (I threw in that "strangely" just to cover my rear-end).

FT predicts on trade "wars" and bombing Iran

COMMENT: "Heatwaves, a guerrilla trade war and victory for Brazil: Welcome to 2010," FT Writers, Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

We are told to expect plenty of guerrilla-like actions (meaning sneaky and full of misdirection) in trade protectionism instead of a full-scale war! Why use the term "guerrilla"? It's just the natural downgrading from "war"--thus as near-equally stupid and inappropriate a term.

But look at it this way: with so little actual warfare in this world, the semantic inflation represents a national security experts full-employment act-equivalent--that and 24-hr cable news.

As for Israel bombing Iran?

No. Israel, the US and European powers will become increasingly alarmed in 2010 by signs that Iran is close to developing a nuke. Iran will make significant progress, for example, in developing its enrichment programme, defying world opinion. But Israel knows a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities remains a big risk, not least because Tehran now has the ability to counter with effective ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities. This time next year, the question on world leaders' minds will no longer be when Iran gets bombed, but when Iran gets the bomb. James Blitz

You heard it here first, folks--about five years ago.

Anticipating the intell data flood on terror suspects

WORLD NEWS: "Airliner bomb plot: Inquiry to focus on turf wars; Fears that agency rivalry led to failure; CIA clashed with intelligence chief," by Harvey Morris, Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

FRONT PAGE: "Pressure rises on CIA after bomb plot: Information sharing practices questioned; Schiphol airport to use body scanners," by Anna Fifield, Pilita Clark and Michael Steen, Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

Unfortunately, the opposite of being unable to share data is actually flooding everyone with--thereupon--useless amounts of ass-covering data.

Better to simply spread the use of the scanners, even though I never seem to spot any info on the medical repercussions (are there any?).

The fig leaf of theocracy in Iran

EDITORIAL: "Iran protests turn into open rebellion: Sanctions should carefully target Iranians' oppressors," Financial Times, 31 December 2009.

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Iran's turmoil: Growing signs of desperation; The latest bout of increasingly fierce repression suggests that the Islamist regime has begun to fear for its future," The Economist, 2 January 2010.

Nice call-out text in the editorial:

The theocrats are revealed as a fig leaf cloaking an emerging military dictatorship.

Thus I stick with my 2003 prediction in Pentagon's New Map that Iran's mullahs suffer(ed) an actual loss of rule by 2010.

The FT opines: "A showdown looks inevitable," meaning a showdown between the reform movement and the consolidating military dictatorship known as the Revolutionary Guard.

The regime has always feared for its future, but up to last year those fears were decidedly centered on regime-change efforts by the US. Now the regime fears its own people more--a glorious revolution-in-the-making, if ever there was one.

And the more the regime fancifully blames it on Western powers, the more their own deep fears are revealed.

I do most definitely believe that history will judge this historic shift as part and parcel of the Big Bang effort/vision launched by Bush-Cheney. After not screwing up relations with China, I think, decades from now, B-C will be accorded a great deal of credit for making the call, which, as I have argued for years now, was not a "diversion" whatsoever--but rather a focusing closer to the ideological center of gravity in this Long War, meaning the Gulf.

The Yemen campaign to date

THE FLIGHT 253 BOMB ATTEMPT: "U.S. Looks to Intensify Yemen Campaign," by Peter Spiegel, Jay Solomon and Margaret Coker, Wall Street Journal, 30 December 2009.

For the record:

• Oct 2000 AQ bombs USS Cole in Port of Aden


• Nov 2002 drone hit on former AQ head


• Feb 2006 prison breakout of 23 AQ


• Sept 2006 AQ-linked suicide bombers hit two oil installation


• July 2007 AQ-linked bomber attack Spanish tourists


• Sept 2008 AQ-linked attack on US embassy


• Aug 2009 AQ claims attempt on Saudi deputy interior minister (first underwear bomb)


• Dec 2009 Yemen gov-launched attacks on AQ strongholds, with US assistance


• Dec 2009 attempted attack on US-bound jetliner.

Back when I used to count up US military operations, I'm sure some of these would have registered and others not. But the underlying reality would be the same: periodic episodic ops are the norm inside this Gap country. Basic frontier policing. Nobody likes to do it and it's a complete pain.

But the U.S. military, in various forms, participates here and there, building local capacity wherever possible.

Every so often events conspired to push the country above the white-noise line--like Detroit, and then suddenly the public and media and politicians care most demonstrably.

But most of the time the subject remains rather esoteric--talked about across the community regularly but rarely brought up publicly.

That is the essence of the Gap's security environment and the U.S. military's role there these past two decades.