Russia, India making good military changes

ARTICLE: Russia Quietly Creates Leaner, More Modern Military, by Anne Garrels, NPR, December 7, 2009

Good sign. India, thanks to the Naxalites at home and the Taliban in Af-Pak, are similarly rethinking. Now if we can only get such movement from China.

(Thanks: David Blair)

The family that plays together

ARTICLE: In Recession, Americans Doing More, Buying Less,By DAMIEN CAVE, New York Times, January 2, 2010

The home theater becomes very popular in the Barnett household, meaning we see very few shows in theaters nowadays. Counter-intuitive to the story on the surface (we buy more movies, but spend less on the experience of seeing them in theaters), but in truth very much in line with the logic. We road run together a lot more, but go to fewer races too.

China's economic victims should confront it

OP-ED: Chinese New Year, By PAUL KRUGMAN, New York Times, December 31, 2009

Some compelling logic from Krugman on Chinese mercantilism as reflected in the pegged yuan:

I usually hear two reasons for not confronting China over its policies. Neither holds water.
First, there's the claim that we can't confront the Chinese because they would wreak havoc with the U.S. economy by dumping their hoard of dollars. This is all wrong, and not just because in so doing the Chinese would inflict large losses on themselves. The larger point is that the same forces that make Chinese mercantilism so damaging right now also mean that China has little or no financial leverage.

Again, right now the world is awash in cheap money. So if China were to start selling dollars, there's no reason to think it would significantly raise U.S. interest rates. It would probably weaken the dollar against other currencies -- but that would be good, not bad, for U.S. competitiveness and employment. So if the Chinese do dump dollars, we should send them a thank-you note.

Second, there's the claim that protectionism is always a bad thing, in any circumstances. If that's what you believe, however, you learned Econ 101 from the wrong people -- because when unemployment is high and the government can't restore full employment, the usual rules don't apply ...

The bottom line is that Chinese mercantilism is a growing problem, and the victims of that mercantilism have little to lose from a trade confrontation. So I'd urge China's government to reconsider its stubbornness. Otherwise, the very mild protectionism it's currently complaining about will be the start of something much bigger.

I am progressively moving toward accepting this position, primarily because I can't see the sustainability of the current policy trajectory China is on, given the recent severe correction.

China's pegged yuan and trade

ARTICLE: U.S. International Trade Commission rules in favor of U.S. steel industry on subsidized Chinese imports, By Peter Whoriskey, Washington Post, December 31, 2009

As long as the pegged currency issue stays hot, I wouldn't see the Obama administration holding fire in other trade realms.

So expect more and more of these shots across the bow.

Demand is king (even with oil)

ARTICLE: Saudis quit Caribbean oil storage; China steps in, By Joshua Schneyer, Bruce Nichols and Chen Aizhu, Reuters, December 31, 2009

I remember this being my standard pitch back in 2000: when Asia becomes the global demand-center on energy, it will displace the central position that America has held for more than half-a-century.

What's it like to be the global demand center? The world revolves around you, because demand is king, and supply merely the consort.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

How key is Christianity in China?

ARTICLE: Under Discussion: What was the most significant change in Christianity over the past decade?, by Ruth Moon, Christianity Today, 12/23/2009

Specifically:

"The huge surge of Christianity in China is a major development that several decades down the road could make the difference between peace and war. If Christianity continues to grow in China, I think relations between the U.S. and China will develop very well. If Christianity sputters out there, we're probably looking at a military confrontation of some kind. The hopes for world peace depend on what happens in China."
Marvin Olasky, editor-in-chief, WORLD Magazine

Bit self-centered, don't you think. Why only Christianity?

China's been a big competitive religious space for thousands of years, with three big mainstays: Taoism, Buddhism and Confucianism. Christianity will become the fourth, but I think it's the height of arrogance to think it's the great tipping point development in relations with the West.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

The need for COIN in military ed

ARTICLE: Integrating COIN into Army Professional Education, by Major Niel Smith, Small Wars Journal, December 3, 2009

Good read on crucial issue:

In the eight years since the invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. Army has failed to integrate counterinsurgency (COIN) into Professional Military Education (PME). Counterinsurgency instruction remains uneven in quantity and quality throughout Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) institutions, which have failed to define standards, competencies and outcomes for COIN education. This lack of consistency contributes to ongoing operational confusion and poor execution of operations in both Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom due to lack of common concept of what counterinsurgency is and what it entails, despite great advances in COIN application and execution by troops in the field.

Changing professional military education ensures a lasting shift in the direction of small wars/SysAdmin ops, because a permanent constituency is created. Just like Gates said his last budget created a "home" for this sort of warfighter, the same space needs to be carved out within PME for such training.

NYT Asians in Africa pix

POST: Showcase: Asian Crossroads in Africa, By EIRINI VOURLOUMIS, Lens, December 11, 2009

Old theme: Asians heading to Africa change the environment there in all sorts of ways.

Right now, the most obvious heavy flow are the Chinese:

As many as 500,000 Chinese have immigrated to Africa, lured by its oil, copper, uranium, wood and other natural resources. Many have thrived, creating large conglomerates. To serve them, other entrepreneurs have opened palatial restaurants. Or karaoke halls. The infusion of a distinctly different culture into African society -- again -- is turning out to be a critical chapter in the continent's post-colonial history.

Here we get a compilation of relevant photos from past NYT stories on the same.

The demand function in religion

ARTICLE: Americans Surprisingly Flexible About Religion and Faith, By DAN HARRIS and WONBO WOO, ABC News, Dec. 10, 2009

Essential truth about America's competitive religious landscape: we change religions more than anybody else on the planet, and we mix-and-match more too.

As we represent the future of globalization (I believe), this tells you that, in the future religion becomes more demand-centric than supply-centric.

And I think that is very good.

(Thanks: Andrew Stewart)

Skinhead, drughead

ARTICLE: Workers May Lie About Drug Use, but Hair Doesn't, By PHYLLIS KORKKI, New York Times, December 12, 2009

Look for even more shaved heads among working-class males!

Looking for good geothermal

ARTICLE: Geothermal Project in California Is Shut Down, By JAMES GLANZ, New York Times, December 11, 2009

No surprise here, as this is not the way to go on geotherm (cracking and thus pushing water down into the cracks), in large part because it can cause quakes, but also because it's water-intensive and has huge maintenance costs (terrible build-up of minerals in pipes).

There is a far better way that Enterra is pursuing with a business ally.

Did we elect Obama to sift through individual terror warning reports?

ARTICLE: Bombing reports start trickling in to Obama, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, January 1, 2010

So Obama is only getting these reports now!!!!

Oooh! Does that reporting mean to imply that Obama doesn't spend a major portion of every day sifting through individual terror warning reports?!?!? OMG!

What did we elect this guy for?

Buck stops here, right?

Fire everybody, and then turn around and complain about how our intell agencies suffer from such a merry-go-round of leaders--damn straight!

CIA as target

ARTICLE: CIA base attacked in Afghanistan supported airstrikes against al-Qaeda, Taliban, By Joby Warrick and Pamela Constable, Washington Post, January 1, 2010

Would appear, at first glance, that this would be the major reason for the attack.

Inevitable, when you think of it: drones becoming so big, CIA being so big in their deployment, ergo CIA becomes target of retaliation for their successful employment.

Like most things, these attacks get interpreted as a "major setback" when--most often--they represent friction in response to serious advance on our part. You want no friction, you avoid any movement, but if you move forward, don't expect anything but more friction.

2011 is no hard deadline

ARTICLE: Petraeus Warns of a Long and Expensive Mission in Afghanistan, By MARK LANDLER, New York Times, December 9, 2009

More realism from Petraeus re: Afghanistan, giving lie to any hard 2011 deadline.

Back pressure building on China

ARTICLE: China's Economic Power Unsettles the Neighbors, By MICHAEL WINES, New York Times, December 9, 2009

ARTICLE: Recession Elsewhere, but It's Booming in China, By KEITH BRADSHER, New York Times, December 9, 2009

Nice contrasting pair of articles that hover around the issue of China's continued pegging of its currency to the dollar: China booms and thus becomes key, near-term engine of global recovery, but it does so at the expense of neighbors (and the EU, as previously noted).

Honestly, this is why we don't need to organize some global coalition to hedge against China: as it loses its "developing" tag (as far as true developing economies are concerned), the back pressure will build naturally and on its own.

Vietnam: apparently a real casualty of the global financial crisis

WORLD NEWS: "Hanoi Weighs Price Controls, Tightens Grip: Foreign Investors Grow Concerned as Conservative Factions in Vietnam Reverse Liberalization Trend Amid Downturn," by James Hookway, Wall Street Journal, 23 December 2009.

Vietnam is planning price controls and cracking down on all manner of personal (e.g., access to social networking sites) and political activities. All of this scares off business and investment, naturally.

All of this bodes ill for the next Party congress next year.

As usual, the Party wants a rapid economic expansion "without spurring any grassroots clamor for more freedom."

Good luck capturing that unicorn, dumbass!

A sign of concern? You bet. Everything was cool so long as Vietnam hit the magic 8 ball every year, like China, but now with growth projected more in the 5-to-6% range, the freak-out begins.

Miranda and Blackwater

ARTICLE: Judge Drops Charges From Blackwater Deaths in Iraq, By CHARLIE SAVAGE, New York Times, December 31, 2009

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it almost seems like the big mistake here was the lack of (a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miranda_warning">"Mirandizing" the suspects, in the sense that the State Department told the Blackwater guys that what they said couldn't be used against them in a court of law--and then it was.

According to the story:

The guards could not be prosecuted under Iraqi law because of an immunity agreement that had been signed by the Coalition Provisional Authority, the governing authority installed by the United States after the invasion of Iraq. But American prosecutors knew from the beginning that they were facing a difficult task in bringing the case. Complications included the applicability of federal statutes to the guards because they were working overseas at the time for the State Department, and the significant problem stemming from statements the guards gave shortly after the shootings.

The guards had been told by State Department investigators that they could be fired if they did not talk about the case, but that whatever they said would not be used against them in any criminal proceeding.

Nevertheless, Judge Urbina found that "in their zeal to bring charges," investigators and prosecutors had extensively used those statements, disregarding "the warning of experienced, senior prosecutors" that "the course of action threatened the viability of prosecution."

Problems and issues remain, and yet, in the absence of some larger and yet more specific (to the environment) rule set on employing private security guards on behalf of U.S. public officials abroad, it can be said that our domestic default system worked as it was designed to, in that it leaned more to protecting the rights of the accused than facilitating rushed prosecutions.

Al Qaeda inhabits failure

ARTICLE: Yemen's Chaos Aids the Evolution of a Qaeda Cell, By STEVEN ERLANGER, New York Times, January 2, 2010

Pretty standard story: when state failure looms, al Qaeda moves in.

Weak dollar = narrower trade deficits

ARTICLE: October U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed as Exports Rose, By JAVIER C. HERNANDEZ, New York Times, December 10, 2009

The continuing advantages of a weakened dollar.

Globalization brings localization

ARTICLE: A Politician Goes Hungry to Redraw India's Map, By JIM YARDLEY, New York Times, December 10, 2009

Classic: open up to globalization and unleash popular pressures for remapping. Why? Increased contact with the outside world triggers more intense self-identification.