Case of NorKo's rapid collapse
Monday, January 11, 2010 at 10:35PM OPINION: "Contemplating Korean Reunification," by Peter M. Beck, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.
Anything from a bloodless German quickie to a very bloody Vietnam-like process (not sure who'd be integrating whom on that last one). In between is a nice Romanian type collapse (very Marxist, actually--just in the wrong direction).
Cost estimates run from $50B (RAND) to $1.5T (Credit Suisse). This guy says $2-5T, because you'd need, for political reasons, to rapidly raise Northern income levels from 5% of South Korea's to something like 80%.
Frankly, I think that estimate is nutty. I think the Chinese have a reasonable dream when they talk about fattening up the prisoner for a while before opening up the prison. I just think the Chinese are doing nothing of the sort and rather prefer to exploit the slave labor while they can, raping the country of its mineral resources.
Me? Even in a collapse I'd see the West and East sharing the burden of keeping the state intact for quite a while before reunification would be attempted in full--a serious transition period. So the cost would be spread out vice paid in one fantastic lump sum.
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