Another passing columnist fear

OP-ED: The Kremlin Two-Step, By Dmitry Trenin, Moscow Times, 11 January 2010

As always, Trenin fascinates with his sophisticated analysis. Nobody in the West can touch him.

Read this and contemplate.

I especially liked the comparison to Stolypin.

So now it looks like the great age of petrocracies was just a passing phase for columnists to hype while they could.

Be very scared of defensive systems!

ARTICLE: Beijing reports successful 'defensive' missile test, By Bill Gertz, Washington Times, January 12, 2010

Gertz's reporting has always had a wonderfully un-self-conscious feel to it: Oooh! China's testing missile defense! And it claims it's just "defensive"! And China still bitches about our similar efforts!

This is what passes for scary developments in today's world. The battle of missile defense systems among nuclear powers!

All Al Qaeda's haven under scrutiny

ARTICLE: Somalis fleeing to Yemen prompt new worries in fight against al-Qaeda, By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, January 12, 2010

On the Somalia-to-Yemen flow, it's been going on for a while. I guess what this piece shows is that whenever one of AQ's havens stirs the pot a bit, all come under new scrutiny--as they should.

Iran's government losing support

ARTICLE: Iran Faces Down Its Grand Ayatollahs, By Masoud Shafaee, World Politics Review, 12 Jan 2010

Great piece by Shafaee.

Solid opening:

For the past seven months, countless parallels have been drawn between the current uprising gripping Iran and the events that ultimately led to the demise of the Pahlavi monarchy some 30 years ago. Whether or not the comparisons are accurate, one irony that cannot be escaped is that the regime is facing increasingly vocal dissent from the very clerical class that brought it to power. In fact, as the Islamic Republic deviates more and more from its theocratic roots and transforms into a military dictatorship, it risks alienating the very marjas who have given it legitimacy since its inception.

And here's where it gets truly interesting.

Yet ironically, the regime may face its greatest threat not from within, but from outside the country. Ever since June's contested election, observers have been keeping a close watch on Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani (who hails from Iran but resides in the holy city of Najaf, Iraq), considered the highest living authority in all of Shiite Islam. Sistani comes from the "quietist" tradition of Shiite theology, one that, unlike the Islamic Republic's ruling doctrine of velayat-eh faqih, holds that clerics should abstain from becoming directly involved in politics. So far, he has refrained from condemning the regime's actions. But his clout is so strong in the Shiite world that, were this to change, the Islamic Republic would arguably no longer face just a political crisis within Iran, but also a crisis of religious confidence among all Shiites.

For now, the influential cleric has shown no signs of weighing in on the unrest. As Ashura came and went, Sistani issued a statement only inviting followers to attend memorial services for the "martyrs" who died in recent terrorist attacks in Karbala and Kazemein, Iraq. Yet there is little doubt that Sistani is watching events unfold in his native land. In November, he met with Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran's Parliament, and more recently, he defended Sanei in the aftermath of Yazdi's attack.

While numerous protesters had been killed in previous demonstrations, the deaths on Ashura may prove to be particularly harmful to the regime. Violence is strictly prohibited on the holy day, and as Karoubi bluntly pointed out, "Even the Shah respected Ashura."

If the bloodshed continues -- and in Islam's name, for that matter -- Sistani may feel compelled to finally speak out against the regime. For that would ultimately not constitute his abandonment of a "quiet" philosophy, but rather, a response to an Islamic government that has itself abandoned the very Islamic principles on which it was founded.

This is why I don't get the Leveretts' argument that the opposition movement is limited to secularists. I think the key dynamic here is the government is losing the support of many of the faithful--as well as the clerical leadership.

I first raised the Sistani-effect scenario in 2005 (Blueprint for Action), citing it as an important Big Bang enabled.

The world's bigger than the odd Al Qaeda attempt

NEWS ANALYSIS: A Year of Terror Plots, Through a Second Prism, By SCOTT SHANE, New York Times, January 12, 2010

Guts of logic:

WASHINGTON -- As terrorist plots against the United States have piled up in recent months, politicians and the news media have sounded the alarm with a riveting message for Americans: Be afraid. Al Qaeda is on the march again, targeting the country from within and without, and your hapless government cannot protect you.

But the politically charged clamor has lumped together disparate cases and obscured the fact that the enemies on American soil in 2009, rather than a single powerful and sophisticated juggernaut, were a scattered, uncoordinated group of amateurs who displayed more fervor than skill. The weapons were old-fashioned guns and explosives -- in several cases, duds supplied by F.B.I. informants -- with no trace of the biological or radiological poisons, let alone the nuclear bombs, that have long been the ultimate fear.

And though 2009 brought more domestic plots, and more serious plots, than any recent year, their lethality was relatively modest. Exactly 14 of the approximately 14,000 murders in the United States last year resulted from allegedly jihadist attacks: 13 people shot at Fort Hood in Texas in November and one at a military recruiting station in Little Rock, Ark., in June.

Such statistics would be no comfort, of course, if an attack with mass casualties succeeded some day.

Nor do they excuse the acknowledged missteps at the United States' bulked-up security agencies that helped allow a makeshift bomb to be carried onto a Detroit-bound Northwest Airlines plane on Christmas Day -- the attempted attack that set off the flood of news coverage.

This is followed up by a great bit of analysis from an intell vet who notes that the underwear bomber is, effort-wise, a huge comedown from the 9/11 scheme.

Point being, until proven otherwise, the 9/11 plot suggests al-Qaeda's upper limit, given our security upgrades at home (far from perfect as we all acknowledge) and our persistent pressure abroad.

In sum, an objective security analyst is hard-pressed to make the case that AQ is ascendant or even holding serve.

And, on that basis, it gets really hard to sustain the "most dangerous era ever" hype.

Unless you have some compelling career/biz need to do so.

I am admittedly a bad self-promoting entrepreneur in this regard, but that's why I think it's crucial, in a professional sense, to lead a diverse life/career that does not see you having to constantly require disaster to succeed. That's why my role at Enterra is so important to me.

It keeps me honest and more realistic than I was while completely trapped within a national security perspective. That view commands such a narrow slice of reality re: what we call globalization.

You're gonna have to serve somebody

POST: A new approach to China, by David Drummond, Official Google Blog, 1/12/2010

Google has gone out of its way to be sensitive to Chinese government concerns. So if they think they've had enough (or are close), then I would support their decision to press the matter.

In general, I don't see all this backpressure on China as bad. I don't want it all being spearheaded by the USG, but generalized pressure is more than fine.

China cannot connect only on its desired terms, and the country's vast liabilities must and will be addressed as part of this integration process.

Everybody's gotta serve somebody. The Chinese Communist Party will be made to learn that, one way or the other.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

Sure we're miffed at China, but we still want to be friends

ARTICLE: On Asia-Pacific trip, Hillary Clinton downplays U.S.-China friction, By John Pomfret, Washington Post, January 12, 2010

As much as I don't mind seeing the systemic friction build against China right now, this is a perfectly fine tack for Secretary Clinton to take--as in, it's her job to think past the day-to-day gripes.

Always liked the old Pan Am

Wright on Iran's counterrevolution

OP-ED: An opposition manifesto in Iran, By Robin Wright, Los Angeles Times, January 6, 2010

Usual great stuff from Robin Wright.

Gist captured in opening paras:

Iran's so-called green movement is not yet a counterrevolution, but recent developments make clear it is heading in that direction. Seven months after the uprising began, an opposition manifesto is finally taking shape, and its sweeping demands would change the face of Iran.

Three bold statements calling for reform have been issued since Friday, one by opposition presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, one by a group of exiled religious intellectuals and the third by university professors. Taken together, they suggest that the movement will not settle for anything short of radical change.

The statements set tough preconditions for a political truce: resignation of the current leadership, introduction of broad democratic freedoms, prosecution of security forces engaged in violence against the opposition and an end to politics in the military, universities and the clergy.

The proposed reforms would amount to a total overhaul of the system. But they also reflect a common desire to prevent an all-out confrontation by engaging the regime in compromise and ending the escalating violence. The three sets of demands all accept that Iran will remain an Islamic republic, if largely in name only.

Two other crucial public calls for change are also detailed.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Approaching the Packer-less playoffs

Packer loss was tough. I knew after the Steelers that every playoff team would try to pass us to death, so shootout was no surprise, nor early nerves, mistakes and hole we found ourselves in. The question was all about resilience, which we answered affirmatively.

But here's my what if?

What if, when we score last TD at 2 mins left, we have Rodgers pass for 2? He's THE best red zone QB and was red hot. If he fails, we onside and probably lose, but the Belichick-ish call there is to put game in YOUR QB's hand and not settle for tie on road when their HOF QB is likewise on fire.

As soon as we scored, I said to Vonne, "We should try for 2!". But Mason immediately trotted out and even the excellent announcers eschewed the notion, never even considering it.

Packer coverage at home has since likewise ignored the subject.

Rodgers probably would have made the pass. Then we lead 46-45 and when Cards miss FG at end of regulation, we go to Superdome for another historic shootout!

Alas ...

Naturally, I am the biggest Cowboy/Romo fan on the planet Sunday, although I will be on the Strip in Vegas with my teenagers that afternoon, looking for fun before I keynote a convention the next morn.

Beyond that, I'll be wearing my Harrison blue 88 jersey Sat night when my daughter (Peyton's white 18) and I paint faces at parish fund-raiser.

Already have my refundable tix for AFC championship game (Xmas present to Vonne). Will be our first time at Lucas, second AFC title game, and 3rd Manning/Colts.

Integrating Muslim immigrants in Europe

ARTICLE: European Muslims prefer mixed areas - survey, By Rob Broomby, BBC News, 15 December 2009

Pretty unsurprising and basic immigrant stuff: the new arrivals feel more attachment to their chosen home than the long-time residents feel toward them.

So sayeth those Muslims polled across 11 major European cities.

The thing that caught my eye in the recommendations coming out of the polling analysis:

Cities should foster an inclusive city identity - Amsterdam, Antwerp and Copenhagen have run such campaigns successfully.

Dutch and the Danish, to no great surprise, go the additional mile and succeed. Doesn't mean all tension evaporates magically, just that they're trying harder and it shows.

(Thanks: Michael Griffin)

Something we have in common with Shia Iran

ARTICLE: Iran's Growing Fear of Al-Qaida and the Taliban, By Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy, World Politics Review, 03 Dec 2009

A good reminder that Shia Iran shares our fears regarding the radical Salafist jihadist movement, which is exclusively Sunni.

China's continuing population woes

ARTICLE: Looming population crisis forces China to revisit one-child policy, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, December 12, 2009

Point: one thing to turn the spigot off, but quite another to try to turn it back on--especially when young couples are so busy in this rapidly modernizing country.

But China did the world a world of favors by pursuing the one-child policy.

Shocker: higher pay, more applicants

ARTICLE: Pay increase for Afghan troops boosts interest, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, December 10, 2009

Another no-s--t-Sherlock move.

Hmmm, did anyone expect fewer applicants as a result?

Mullen: perfect fit

ARTICLE: Along with pep talk, Marines get warning, By Greg Jaffe, Washington Post, December 8, 2009

I listened to this talk on TV and came away very impressed by Mullen. Like the surprising Gates, he seems a perfect fit for the age to which the military finds itself adjusting.

Nice baby step between Afghanistan and China

PROGRAM: 'China, Afghanistan sign agreement on military cooperation,' National Afghanistan Radio, 1 January 2010

[Ed. The entire transcript emailed to us because I cannot find a link on the web.]

[Presenter] China and Afghanistan have singed an agreement on military cooperation. According to information provided by the Foreign Ministry to the Bakhtar News Agency (BNA), a Chinese official and the Afghanistan ambassador to China, Soltani Ahmad Bahin, signed the agreement.

While signing the agreement, the Chinese official talked about his country's commitments to assisting the Afghan forces and added that they wanted to play their part in the reconstruction of Afghanistan through military assistance and training of Afghan officers.

He said China was in favour of expanding its relationship with Afghanistan and outlined the Chinese Defence Ministry's plans for training Afghan forces in 2010.

Soltani Ahmad Bahin thanked the Republic of China for its contributions to Afghanistan and said these contributions demonstrated the depth of the friendship between the two countries.

Bahin described terrorism and insecurity as a common problem across the world and the region and said Afghanistan as the main victim of terrorism needed more and effective contributions by the international community.

The Afghan ambassador asked for continued Chinese contributions to Afghanistan and provision of scholarships for young Afghan officers in China.

A baby step, but a good one that builds on recent, small-scale cooperation, so the right direction.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul)

Rebalancing produces friction

ARTICLE: U.S., China locked in trade disputes, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, January 4, 2010

Snapshot of the bilateral tensions as the rebalancing effort continues.

You can get all scared by this or simply realize that we're talking about significant global momentum at work here, so where a redirect is attempted, one should expect plenty of friction as part of the package.

But I promise that I will try and freak out about something in 2010, just for practice.

Kudos to the BIC for taking care of their own

ARTICLE: Booming economy, government programs help Brazil expand its middle class, By Juan Forero, Washington Post, January 3, 2010

This is exactly what I was reaching for with the broad notion of the "New Core sets the new rules" and my description, in Blueprint for Action, that the New Core logically provides a third path between Go Fast America and Go Slow Europe--the go-as-fast-as-you-can-but-no-faster-path (my notion that "the train's engine can travel no faster than its caboose").

Read it and believe:

Since 2003, more than 32 million people in this country of 198 million have entered the middle class, and about 20 million have risen above poverty, according to the Center for Social Policies at the Get√∫lio Vargas Foundation, a Rio policy group that studies socioeconomic trends.

"We can generate inclusive growth as probably no other country can, given the scale of the country and the level of inequality," said Marcelo Neri, chief economist at the center. "Brazil is following what you may call a middle path. We are respecting the rules of the market and, at the same time, we are doing very active social policy."

For Brazil to manage this on its own is a huge gift to the world, on par with what China and India are accomplishing. Brazil is taking this huge chunk of global poverty and saying, "no problem, I've got this one!"

That is a ton of potential instability that the rest of us don't have to worry about--ditto with India and China.

So many experts are hot to confront these powers over this or that small thing (obviously, not small in their minds), but me? I'm just so grateful they're doing what they're doing, because with everything the U.S. is trying to cover across the Gap, we absolutely have no desire to own any of these problem sets.

Indeed, we need pillars like Brazil to manage their internal issues AND help us across the Gap where it can.

Art at the Philadelphia Union Club

Washington by Thomas Sully, 1842, Union Club, Philly.

Just beautiful stairwell, Union Club, Philly.

Let me be the first to express my shock

FRONT PAGE: "Chinese Evade U.S. Sanctions On Iran," by Peter Fritsch, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

Ah, but if only we had "smarter sanctions"!

Of course, we all would like to see the Revolutionary Guard get suitably squeezed, but the Chinese will turn on the regime only upon its fall. If somebody can guarantee China's stable access to Iranian energy, then great.

But until then, expect Beijing to continue the workarounds while proclaiming plenty else.